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NASA's Gravitational - Wave Mission Concept Study

With the conclusion of the NASA/ESA partnership on the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Project, NASA initiated a study to explore mission concepts that will accomplish some or all of the LISA science objectives at lower cost. The Gravitational-Wave Mission Concept Study consisted of a public Request for Information (RFI), a Core Team of NASA engineers and scientists, a Community Science Team, a Science Task Force, and an open workshop. The RFI yielded were 12 mission concepts, 3 instrument concepts and 2 technologies. The responses ranged from concepts that eliminated the drag-free test mass of LISA to concepts that replace the test mass with an atom interferometer. The Core Team reviewed the noise budgets and sensitivity curves, the payload and spacecraft designs and requirements, orbits and trajectories and technical readiness and risk. The Science Task Force assessed the science performance by calculating the horizons. the detection rates and the accuracy of astrophysical parameter estimation for massive black hole mergers, stellar-mass compact objects inspiraling into central engines. and close compact binary systems. Three mission concepts have been studied by Team-X, JPL's concurrent design facility. to define a conceptual design evaluate kt,y performance parameters. assess risk and estimate cost and schedule. The Study results are summarized.

Stebbins, Robin↗

Improving energy yield in photovoltaic modules with photonic structures

When installed outdoors, Si solar cells typically operate 20 – 30 K above ambient conditions. These elevated operating temperatures lead to diminished performance, reducing efficiency by ~0.4%/K for crystalline Si cells and decreasing module lifetime. Since much of the elevated temperature of the modules derives from parasitic absorption of sub-bandgap sunlight by the contacts, encapsulants, or other materials, reflectors that remove the sub-bandgap radiation from the module before it is absorbed promise to reduce the operating temperature. However, there are many competing strategies to reject this light: selective reflectors could be integrated into the outer module glass, at the textured Si-encapsulant interface, or on the rear. Furthermore, many of these approaches are complex and expensive to fabricate. The issue of heating can be even more critical in bifacial modules: high fractions of rear irradiance can lead to higher operating temperatures. Prior to this project, relatively little was known about the optical strategies for temperature reduction in bifacial modules. The goal of this project was to quantitatively assess optical strategies for improving the energy yield via a combination of improved anti-reflection and sub-bandgap light rejection. We studied two complementary concepts: the performance of ideal structures to determine the upper limits to performance, and low-complexity structures made from standard materials as cost-effective implementations. We also studied the performance of these reflectors in different types of modules, including Al BSF, PERC, and bifacial. Here we build from our prior accomplishments in developing mirror optimization techniques, and make use of simulation methods that accurately capture the optical properties of the modules throughout the visible and near-infrared spectrum. We connect these optical properties to energy yield under realistic, outdoor conditions. We also experimentally fabricated mirrors, incorporated them into mini-modules, and performed outdoor testing of performance at NREL. We found definitively that spectrally-selective mirrors on the outside of the module cover glass offer the best performance, both under ideal conditions and for realistic, low- complexity mirrors. Mirrors at the Si cell/encapsulant interface are limited by the multiple reflections needed to remove sub-bandgap light. Mirrors at the cell surface and mirrors on the rear also cannot remove all the sub-bandgap light, since parasitic absorption also occurs in the cover glass, encapsulant, and front contacts, depending on the module configuration. Also, cell texturing places higher demands on any cell-surface mirror because multiple interactions with the mirror are required to reject sub bandgap light which compounds losses. For bifacial modules, mirrors on the back do provide additional cooling and energy yield improvements, and the mirrors can have the same structure. In the monofacial case up to 3.3K of cooling is possible for mirrors on the front, compared to 2.2K at the cell surface and 1.2K at the rear. For bifacial modules, up to 2.4K of cooling is possible when mirrors are included at both the front and back. Our realistic designs utilize 4 – 6 layers of common photovoltaic materials such as SiO 2 , TiO 2 , and SiN x , making them more cost effective. Finally, we used our models to study thermal management in bifacial modules with different back lamination materials, finding that glass-glass laminated modules operated hotter than equivalent glass-polymer backsheet modules, due solely to the increased absorption of light incident from the rear of the module. Improving the energy yield by 2%, which is achievable with these realistic designs, would lead to LCOE reductions of $0.03/kWh by 2030. These benefits make photovoltaic panels more accessible to the public and may reduce associated maintenance costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Use of current-potential patches to obtain fundamental improvements to the coils of magnetic fusion devices

A central issue in the design of tokamaks or stellarators is the coils that produce the external magnetic fields. The freedom that remains unstudied in the design of coils is enormous. This freedom could be quickly studied computationally at low cost with high reliability. In particular, the space between toroidal field and modular coils that blocks access to the plasma chamber could be increased by a large factor. The concept of current-potential patches, which was developed in Todd Elder's thesis, provides a method for separating the study of the feasibility of coils with attractive physics properties from the engineering design of specific coils. In addition to enhanced accessibility, coils can be designed for increased plasma-coil separation, insensitivity to coil position errors, and plasma control.

Boozer, Allen H. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Un↗

Parabolized stability equations

The parabolized stability equations (PSE) are a new approach to analyze the streamwise evolution of single or interacting Fourier modes in weakly nonparallel flows such as boundary layers. The concept rests on the decomposition of every mode into a slowly varying amplitude function and a wave function with slowly varying wave number. The neglect of the small second derivatives of the slowly varying functions with respect to the streamwise variable leads to an initial boundary-value problem that can be solved by numerical marching procedures. The PSE approach is valid in convectively unstable flows. The equations for a single mode are closely related to those of the traditional eigenvalue problems for linear stability analysis. However, the PSE approach does not exploit the homogeneity of the problem and, therefore, can be utilized to analyze forced modes and the nonlinear growth and interaction of an initial disturbance field. In contrast to the traditional patching of local solutions, the PSE provide the spatial evolution of modes with proper account for their history. The PSE approach allows studies of secondary instabilities without the constraints of the Floquet analysis and reproduces the established experimental, theoretical, and computational benchmark results on transition up to the breakdown stage. The method matches or exceeds the demonstrated capabilities of current spatial Navier-Stokes solvers at a small fraction of their computational cost. Recent applications include studies on localized or distributed receptivity and prediction of transition in model environments for realistic engineering problems. This report describes the basis, intricacies, and some applications of the PSE methodology.

Herbert, Thorwald↗

Evaluation of Phase Change Plaster/Paste Composites for Building Envelopes

Thermal energy storage (TES) materials increase a building’s thermal mass and provide the flexibility to shave and time-shift energy use. These materials are needed to enable grid-interactive efficient buildings, allowing building occupants to lower costs by leveraging free ambient heating/cooling as well as shifting consumption to cheaper electricity periods. Phase change materials (PCMs) that store heat through a solid-liquid/solid-solid transformation are of particular interest for TES because of their ability to store large amounts of energy across a constant temperature or very small temperature range. Furthermore, previous studies on PCM building envelopes evaluated products that may only be incorporated as part of new construction and are not easily applicable to existing, energy-intensive buildings. In this work, we leverage laboratory PCM characterization and whole-building energy simulation to study the energy and cost savings of PCM plaster/paste coatings, which can be applied post construction to both new builds and retrofits of existing buildings (about 40% of residential buildings in the United States fall into the retrofit category). We evaluated the energy impact of PCM plaster/paste composites for a single-family residential building in the United States, including layer design (location and thickness), composite properties (phase change temperature, energy density, and shape of the enthalpy curve), and U.S. climate zone. The enthalpy curve shape of PCM shows that phase change temperature and energy density are not the only two parameters that must be considered for PCM selection. Maximizing the energy density amid the effective TES zone is key to boosting energy savings. We also studied PCM price targets with the aim of achieving reasonable payback periods based on both block and time-of-use electricity rates. Moreover, we developed an empirical equation to provide a rough estimate of the energy savings potential of incorporating PCM without the need to perform detailed simulations. These results will help guide the selection and design of PCM plaster/paste composite elements for residential building envelopes.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Modeling Operations Costs for Human Exploration Architectures

Operations and support (O&S) costs for human spaceflight have not received the same attention in the cost estimating community as have development costs. This is unfortunate as O&S costs typically comprise a majority of life-cycle costs (LCC) in such programs as the International Space Station (ISS) and the now-cancelled Constellation Program. Recognizing this, the Constellation Program and NASA HQs supported the development of an O&S cost model specifically for human spaceflight. This model, known as the Exploration Architectures Operations Cost Model (ExAOCM), provided the operations cost estimates for a variety of alternative human missions to the moon, Mars, and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in architectural studies. ExAOCM is philosophically based on the DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF) concepts of operational nodes, systems, operational functions, and milestones. This paper presents some of the historical background surrounding the development of the model, and discusses the underlying structure, its unusual user interface, and lastly, previous examples of its use in the aforementioned architectural studies.

cost estimating↗

Application of a design-build-team approach to low cost and weight composite fuselage structure

Relationships between manufacturing costs and design details must be understood to promote the application of advanced composite technologies to transport fuselage structures. A team approach, integrating the disciplines responsible for aircraft structural design and manufacturing, was developed to perform cost and weight trade studies for a twenty-foot diameter aft fuselage section. Baseline composite design and manufacturing concepts were selected for large quadrant panels in crown, side, and keel areas of the fuselage section. The associated technical issues were also identified. Detailed evaluation of crown panels indicated the potential for large weight savings and costs competitive with aluminum technology in the 1995 timeframe. Different processes and material forms were selected for the various elements that comprise the fuselage structure. Additional cost and weight savings potential was estimated for future advancements.

Ilcewicz, L. B.↗

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Scalable and Cost-Effective Solution to the U.S. Housing Crisis: A Case Study on Locally Manufactured Modular Multifamily Housing

This case study assesses waste management efficiencies in modular buildings compared to traditional construction methods. We focus on the modular 1-bedroom Model/Z unit by Model Z Modular, LLC. As part of the collaboration between Model Z Modular and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyzed waste metrics from design through construction, contrasting these findings against conventional stick-built and site-built multifamily buildings. The Model/Z unit is part of a strategic effort to address affordable housing shortages in South Los Angeles, where household income challenges are pronounced. The unit is produced in a state-of-the-art 150,000 sq. ft. modular manufacturing facility located within the city it is serving, and has so far supported the production of over 1,500 affordable housing units. Model/Z units have been used in projects with as many as 195 units, achieving large economies of scale and time. Our analysis demonstrates that modular construction reduces waste compared to traditional methods. This reduction is achieved through precise prefabrication techniques, the implementation of new framing methods, the concentration of workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics, which optimize material use and greatly reduce on-site handling. Additionally, local manufacturing minimizes transportation needs, improving overall project efficiency. The Model/Z unit exemplifies a scalable solution for enhancing housing affordability by optimizing resource utilization and minimizing associated costs. These methods support the delivery of high-quality units at reduced expenses, addressing critical urban housing shortages effectively. This case study underscores Model Z Modular's commitment to producing affordable, quality housing while fostering economic opportunities through job creation and training programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost analysis of hydrogen production by high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis

In this study, we estimate construction and operation costs of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities for producing high purity hydrogen gas from water. Manufacturing and assembly costs for two types of SOE cell stacks are estimated using a detailed design for manufacture and assembly (DFMA®) analysis. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment is designed and sized with Aspen®, and cost estimated using equipment vendor quotes. Factory and on-site assembly and installation costs for SOEC stack and BOP equipment integration into modular SOE process units are calculated using a simplified DFMA® method. Total stack costs on a stack input power (SIP) basis reduce to <$100/kW e DC SIP for >500 MW e DC SIP /year production rates with electrode cermet, interconnects, and high-temperature heat treatments dominating the total cost. Integration of stacks with larger BOP equipment operating at higher pressures offers ~36% cost reduction in total facility capital cost due to an economies of physical scale effect since BOP equipment comprises >50% of facility costs. Optimized H 2 prices decrease from ~$\$$4/kgH 2 to ~$\$$2/kgH 2 for 1 GWe DCSIP facilities using $\$$0.025/kWh electricity price. All costs are reported in 2021 US dollars.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An analysis of the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of a cropland inventory utilizing remote sensing techniques

Cropland inventories utilizing high altitude and Landsat imagery were conducted in Kern County, California. It was found that in terms of the overall mean relative and absolute inventory accuracies, a Landsat multidate analysis yielded the most optimum results, i.e., 98% accuracy. The 1:125,000 CIR high altitude inventory is a serious alternative which can be very accurate (97% or more) if imagery is available for a specific study area. The operational remote sensing cropland inventories documented in this study are considered cost-effective. When compared to conventional survey costs of $62-66 per 10,000 acres, the Landsat and high-altitude inventories required only 3-5% of this amount, i.e., $1.97-2.98.

Jensen, J. R.↗

The Cost Drivers and The Most Time-Consuming Activities of the MARVEL Microreactor Project

This study aims to identify what drives cost and what project activities are the most time consuming within a microreactor project such as MARVEL. Identifying these cost and time drivers is necessary since nuclear projects are vulnerable to schedule delays and cost increases. This work also paves the way for possible cost reductions, decreasing the MARVEL levelized cost of energy and reducing the microreactors' construction time which in turn leads to a lower cost of interest during construction

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Conceptual design of a next-generation, fully reusable manned launch system

The conceptual design of a rocket-powered, two-stage fully reusable launch vehicle has been performed as a part of the Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS) study at the NASA Langley Research Center. The main goals of the AMLS study are to provide routine, low-cost manned access to space. Technologies and system approaches have been studied that would contribute to significant reductions in operating costs relative to current systems. System and operational characteristics of the two-stage fully reusable vehicle are presented, and the various tools and methods used in the design process are summarized. The results of a series of trade studies performed to examine the effect of varying major vehicle parameters on the reference two-stage fully reusable vehicle are also summarized.

Stanley, Douglas O.↗

Space program payload costs and their possible reduction

The possible ways by which NASA payload costs might be reduced in the future were studied. The major historical reasons for payload costs being as they were, and if there are technologies (hard and soft), or criteria for technology advances, that could significantly reduce total costs of payloads were examined. Payload costs are placed in historical context. Some historical cost breakdowns for unmanned NASA payloads are presented to suggest where future cost reductions could be most significant. Space programs of NOAA, DoD and COMSAT are then examined to ascertain if payload reductions have been brought about by the operational (as opposed to developmental) nature of such programs, economies of scale, the ability to rely on previously developed technology, or by differing management structures and attitudes. The potential impact was investigated of NASA aircraft-type management on spacecraft program costs, and some examples relating previous costs associated with aircraft costs on the one hand and manned and unmanned costs on the other are included.

Vanvleck, E. M.↗

Aerodynamic characteristics of the National Launch System (NLS) 1 1/2 stage launch vehicle

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is studying ways of assuring more reliable and cost effective means to space. One launch system studied was the NLS which included the l l/2 stage vehicle. This document encompasses the aerodynamic characteristics of the 1 l/2 stage vehicle. To support the detailed configuration definition two wind tunnel tests were conducted in the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's 14x14-Inch Trisonic Wind Tunnel during 1992. The tests were a static stability and a pressure test, each utilizing 0.004 scale models. The static stability test resulted in the forces and moments acting on the vehicle. The aerodynamics for the reference configuration with and without feedlines and an evaluation of three proposed engine shroud configurations were also determined. The pressure test resulted in pressure distributions over the reference vehicle with and without feedlines including the reference engine shrouds. These pressure distributions were integrated and balanced to the static stability coefficients resulting in distributed aerodynamic loads on the vehicle. The wind tunnel tests covered a Mach range of 0.60 to 4.96. These ascent flight aerodynamic characteristics provide the basis for trajectory and performance analysis, loads determination, and guidance and control evaluation.

Springer, A. M.↗

How the Allocation of Lander Functions Impacts the Cost Breakeven for Lunar In-Situ Propellant Production

This study proposes to leverage the evaluation of the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants as compared to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign as defined in a companion paper, to explore this architectural question: how do choices in the number and function of different vehicles performing lunar descent and ascent impact the cost breakeven of using in-situ propellant production relative to propellant delivery from Earth for a combination of human lunar and Mars missions?

Christopher A. Jones↗