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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Strategy for Risk Quantification of Spaceflight Crew Health and Performance Using Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

At NASA, the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system represents the span of countermeasures, capabilities, interventions, and tested processes and procedures that in combination work to mitigate the human component of spaceflight mission risk. Across the varying NASA mental models of the CHP system, the different functionalities needed to meet human flight systems standards can be broken down into specific categories (i.e. medical capability, environmental health, behavioral health). These categories can be further broken down into specific subgroups generally associated with the CHP functionalities meant to mitigate or buy down individual human system risks. Taking a similar development approach we seek to leverage dynamic probabilistic risk assessment as a means to quantify and relatively assess the human risk state within the crew health and performance domain. By utilizing existing tools as integrators, we propose a rapid development strategy for incorporating research and operational data that represent the influence of the CHP system functionalities, in order to provide order of magnitudes estimates of the influence on most human system risks outcomes. The model system utilizes a modest cumulative risk approach and that limits the scope to primary paths of influence between the CHP functionalities and human system risks, thus enabling quick prototypes of the integrative effects of CHP functional combinations to solicit valuable feedback from stakeholders and customers on the data, relationship, and structure of the integration.

Drayton Munster↗
NASA NTRS1959

A Study of Oxidation of Hydrogen Based on Flashback of Hydrogen-Oxygen-Nitrogen Burner Flames

The flashback of hydrogen-oxygen-nitrogen flames was studied as a function of pressure, burner diameter, equivalence ratio, and oxidant strength. The results were treated on the assumption that the product of the critical boundary velocity gradient for flashback and the initial concentration of that reactant which is not in excess is proportional to a mean reaction rate associated with the flame zone. It was further assumed that this reaction rate can be expressed in terms of initial concentrations and flame temperature. Measurements at constant flame temperature yield orders of reaction with respect to hydrogen and oxygen. These do not vary with flame temperature. Measurements in which pressure is varied for several values of oxidant strength at constant equivalence ratio yield a total order of reaction and a function describing the dependence of the mean reaction rate on flame temperature. The total reaction order is independent of flame temperature and equal to the sum of the orders for hydrogen and oxygen. The dependence of the reaction rate on flame temperature cannot be described by a constant activation energy. The activation energy obtained apparently increases with flame temperature. Flashback results can be described by a single rate constant which is independent of equivalence ratio. Values were estimated for this rate constant as a function of flame temperature.

Fine, Burton D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Stardust Dynamic Science at Wild 2: First Look

The Dynamic Science investigation on the STARDUST mission has been described previously. The data delivered by the STARDUST Project is multifold, but basically it consists of radio Doppler data from the Deep Space Network (DSN) and attitude control data (ACS) from the spacecraft. Doppler data were successfully recorded by JPL's Navigation System (closed-loop data) and also by its Radio Science System (open-loop data) at DSN stations DSS43 near Canberra Australia and at DSS14 at Goldstone California. Attitude control data were also successfully delivered to the Dynamic Science Team. Here we describe a preliminary analysis of the data. Beyond a closest approach distance of 150 km, a Doppler detection of a the Wild 2 nucleus mass was not expected. The current best estimate of the closest approach distance is 236.4 km, and as expected, any mass signal in the Doppler data is hopelessly buried in the noise. We have attempted to fit the data to a mass model with no success. However, analysis of the Doppler data and the ACS data for particle impacts on the spacecraft's Whipple shields is in progress, and will be reported at the meeting. The DSS43 closed-loop Doppler residuals are plotted as a function of time from the current best estimate of the time of Wild 2 closest approach, 2 January 2004, 19:43:11.7 UTC, Earth-receive time at the station.

Anderson, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Piloted Simulation Study of Wake Turbulence on Final Approach

A piloted simulation study has been conducted in a research simulator to provide a means to estimate the effects of different levels of wake turbulence on final approach. A worst-case methodology was used to ensure conservative estimates. Fourteen airline pilots voluntarily participated in the study and flew almost 1000 approaches. The pilots rated the subjective severity of the disturbances using a special rating scale developed for this study. Several objective measures of the airplane/pilot response to the simulated wake turbulence were also made. All the data showed a large amount of variation between pilots and to a lesser extent for a given pilot. Therefore, the data were presented at 50, 70, 90 percentile levels as a function of vortex strength. The data allow estimates of the vortex strength for a given subjective or objective response and vice versa. The results of this study appear to be more conservative than the results of previous studies.

Stewart, Eric C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Representation of Probability Density Functions from Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter

Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain estimates of the state and the statistical information of its region of uncertainty. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the probability density function (PDF) that incorporates higher order statistical information, we propose the use of nonlinear estimation methods such as the Particle Filter. The Particle Filter (PF) is capable of providing a PDF representation of the state estimates whose accuracy is dependent on the number of particles or samples used. For this method to be applicable to real case scenarios, we need a way of accurately representing the PDF in a compressed manner with little information loss. Hence we propose using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a non-Gaussian dimensional reduction method that is capable of maintaining higher order statistical information obtained using the PF. Methods such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are based on utilizing up to second order statistics, hence will not suffice in maintaining maximum information content. Both the PCA and the ICA are applied to two scenarios that involve a highly eccentric orbit with a lower apriori uncertainty covariance and a less eccentric orbit with a higher a priori uncertainty covariance, to illustrate the capability of the ICA in relation to the PCA.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Estimating the Deep Space Network modification costs to prepare for future space missions by using major cost drivers

This paper develops a cost model to do long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The paper focuses on the costs required to modify and/or enhance the DSN to prepare for future space missions. The model is a function of eight major mission cost drivers and estimates both the total cost and the annual costs of a similar future space mission. The model is derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. Estimates derived from the model are tested against actual cost data for two independent missions, Viking and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS).

Remer, Donald S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Compensation of Oxygen Transmittance Effects for Proximal Sensing Retrieval of Canopy-Leaving Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

Estimates of Sun-Induced vegetation chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) using remote sensing techniques are commonly determined by exploiting solar and/or telluric absorption features. When SIF is retrieved in the strong oxygen (O2) absorption features, atmospheric effects must always be compensated. Whereas correction of atmospheric effects is a standard airborne or satellite data processing step, there is no consensus regarding whether it is required for SIF proximal-sensing measurements nor what is the best strategy to be followed. Thus, by using simulated data, this work provides a comprehensive analysis about how atmospheric effects impact SIF estimations on proximal sensing, regarding: (1) the sensor height above the vegetated canopy; (2) the SIF retrieval technique used, e.g., Fraunhofer Line Discriminator (FLD) family or Spectral Fitting Methods (SFM); and (3) the instrument's spectral resolution. We demonstrate that for proximal-sensing scenarios compensating for atmospheric effects by simply introducing the O2 transmittance function into the FLD or SFM formulations improves SIF estimations. However, these simplistic corrections still lead to inaccurate SIF estimations due to the multiplication of spectrally convolved atmospheric transfer functions with absorption features. Consequently, a more rigorous oxygen compensation strategy is proposed and assessed by following a classic airborne atmospheric correction scheme adapted to proximal sensing. This approach allows compensating for the O2 absorption effects and, at the same time, convolving the high spectral resolution data according to the corresponding Instrumental Spectral Response Function (ISRF) through the use of an atmospheric radiative transfer model. Finally, due to the key role of O2 absorption on the evaluated proximal-sensing SIF retrieval strategies, its dependency on surface pressure (p) and air temperature (T) was also assessed. we combined simulated spectral data with p and T measurements obtained for a one-year period in the Hyytiala Forestry Field Station in Finland. Of importance hereby is that seasonal dynamics in terms of T and p, if not appropriately considered as part of the retrieval strategy, can result in erroneous SIF seasonal trends that mimic those of known dynamics for temperature-dependent physiological responses of vegetation.

"sun–induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF); pro↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stress observations and driving force models for the South American plate

A comparison of stress observations to predictions of driving force models for the South American plate is presented. Conditions for dynamical equilibrium are used to estimate the magnitudes of forces as a function of age, with ridge push and slab pull as active forces, and plate drag and slab resistance as passive forces. The results are consistent with earlier published models, and it is found that the primary balance for an oceanic plate is between slab pull and the resisting drag forces. The model is generalized for the possible forces driving the South American plate, and it is compared with observed stress measurements and kinematics. The plate balance is found to be largely between ridge push and plate drag. The magnitude of a possible trench suction force is estimated using a model with an eddy between the Nazca slab and the overlying South American plate.

Stefanick, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of a segment-based LANDSAT full-frame approach to corp area estimation

As the registration of LANDSAT full frames enters the realm of current technology, sampling methods should be examined which utilize other than the segment data used for LACIE. The effect of separating the functions of sampling for training and sampling for area estimation. The frame selected for analysis was acquired over north central Iowa on August 9, 1978. A stratification of he full-frame was defined. Training data came from segments within the frame. Two classification and estimation procedures were compared: statistics developed on one segment were used to classify that segment, and pooled statistics from the segments were used to classify a systematic sample of pixels. Comparisons to USDA/ESCS estimates illustrate that the full-frame sampling approach can provide accurate and precise area estimates.

Bauer, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Maximum likelihood tuning of a vehicle motion filter

This paper describes the use of maximum likelihood parameter estimation unknown parameters appearing in a nonlinear vehicle motion filter. The filter uses the kinematic equations of motion of a rigid body in motion over a spherical earth. The nine states of the filter represent vehicle velocity, attitude, and position. The inputs to the filter are three components of translational acceleration and three components of angular rate. Measurements used to update states include air data, altitude, position, and attitude. Expressions are derived for the elements of filter matrices needed to use air data in a body-fixed frame with filter states expressed in a geographic frame. An expression for the likelihood functions of the data is given, along with accurate approximations for the function's gradient and Hessian with respect to unknown parameters. These are used by a numerical quasi-Newton algorithm for maximizing the likelihood function of the data in order to estimate the unknown parameters. The parameter estimation algorithm is useful for processing data from aircraft flight tests or for tuning inertial navigation systems.

Trankle, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Broadband Phase Retrieval for Image-Based Wavefront Sensing

A focus-diverse phase-retrieval algorithm has been shown to perform adequately for the purpose of image-based wavefront sensing when (1) broadband light (typically spanning the visible spectrum) is used in forming the images by use of an optical system under test and (2) the assumption of monochromaticity is applied to the broadband image data. Heretofore, it had been assumed that in order to obtain adequate performance, it is necessary to use narrowband or monochromatic light. Some background information, including definitions of terms and a brief description of pertinent aspects of image-based phase retrieval, is prerequisite to a meaningful summary of the present development. Phase retrieval is a general term used in optics to denote estimation of optical imperfections or aberrations of an optical system under test. The term image-based wavefront sensing refers to a general class of algorithms that recover optical phase information, and phase-retrieval algorithms constitute a subset of this class. In phase retrieval, one utilizes the measured response of the optical system under test to produce a phase estimate. The optical response of the system is defined as the image of a point-source object, which could be a star or a laboratory point source. The phase-retrieval problem is characterized as image-based in the sense that a charge-coupled-device camera, preferably of scientific imaging quality, is used to collect image data where the optical system would normally form an image. In a variant of phase retrieval, denoted phase-diverse phase retrieval [which can include focus-diverse phase retrieval (in which various defocus planes are used)], an additional known aberration (or an equivalent diversity function) is superimposed as an aid in estimating unknown aberrations by use of an image-based wavefront-sensing algorithm. Image-based phase-retrieval differs from such other wavefront-sensing methods, such as interferometry, shearing interferometry, curvature wavefront sensing, and Shack-Hartmann sensing, all of which entail disadvantages in comparison with image-based methods. The main disadvantages of these non-image based methods are complexity of test equipment and the need for a wavefront reference.

Dean, Bruce H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

Response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration at supersonic speeds in the NASA LaRC Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The Mach 3 staging was dominated by shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. The inference space was partitioned into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The underlying aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle were estimated using piecewise-continuous lower-order polynomial functions. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. Augmenting the central composite designs to full third-order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria was evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting lower-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

Erickson, Gary E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Estimating Temperature Retrieval Accuracy Associated With Thermal Band Spatial Resolution Requirements for Center Pivot Irrigation Monitoring and Management

This study explores the use of synthetic thermal center pivot irrigation scenes to estimate temperature retrieval accuracy for thermal remote sensed data, such as data acquired from current and proposed Landsat-like thermal systems. Center pivot irrigation is a common practice in the western United States and in other parts of the world where water resources are scarce. Wide-area ET (evapotranspiration) estimates and reliable water management decisions depend on accurate temperature information retrieval from remotely sensed data. Spatial resolution, sensor noise, and the temperature step between a field and its surrounding area impose limits on the ability to retrieve temperature information. Spatial resolution is an interrelationship between GSD (ground sample distance) and a measure of image sharpness, such as edge response or edge slope. Edge response and edge slope are intuitive, and direct measures of spatial resolution are easier to visualize and estimate than the more common Modulation Transfer Function or Point Spread Function. For these reasons, recent data specifications, such as those for the LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission), have used GSD and edge response to specify spatial resolution. For this study, we have defined a 400-800 m diameter center pivot irrigation area with a large 25 K temperature step associated with a 300 K well-watered field surrounded by an infinite 325 K dry area. In this context, we defined the benchmark problem as an easily modeled, highly common stressing case. By parametrically varying GSD (30-240 m) and edge slope, we determined the number of pixels and field area fraction that meet a given temperature accuracy estimate for 400-m, 600-m, and 800-m diameter field sizes. Results of this project will help assess the utility of proposed specifications for the LDCM and other future thermal remote sensing missions and for water resource management.

Ryan, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fermi and Swift Observations of GRB 190114C: Tracing the Evolution of High-energy Emission from Prompt to Afterglow

We report on the observations of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 190114C by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The prompt gamma-ray emission was detected by the Fermi GRB Monitor (GBM), the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), and the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and the long-lived afterglow emission was subsequently observed by the GBM, LAT, Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), and Swift UV Optical Telescope. The early-time observations reveal multiple emission components that evolve independently, with a delayed power-law component that exhibits significant spectral attenuation above 40 MeV in the first few seconds of the burst. This power-law component transitions to a harder spectrum that is consistent with the afterglow emission observed by the XRT at later times. This afterglow component is clearly identifiable in the GBM and BAT light curves as a slowly fading emission component on which the rest of the prompt emission is superimposed. As a result, we are able to observe the transition from internal-shock- to external-shock-dominated emission. We find that the temporal and spectral evolution of the broadband afterglow emission can be well modeled as synchrotron emission from a forward shock propagating into a wind-like circumstellar environment. We estimate the initial bulk Lorentz factor using the observed high-energy spectral cutoff. Considering the onset of the afterglow component, we constrain the deceleration radius at which this forward shock begins to radiate in order to estimate the maximum synchrotron energy as a function of time. We find that even in the LAT energy range, there exist high-energy photons that are in tension with the theoretical maximum energy that can be achieved through synchrotron emission from a shock. These violations of the maximum synchrotron energy are further compounded by the detection of very high-energy (VHE) emission above 300 GeV by MAGIC concurrent with our observations. We conclude that the observations of VHE photons from GRB 190114C necessitates either an additional emission mechanism at very high energies that is hidden in the synchrotron component in the LAT energy range, an acceleration mechanism that imparts energy to the particles at a rate that is faster than the electron synchrotron energy-loss rate, or revisions of the fundamental assumptions used in estimating the maximum photon energy attainable through the synchrotron process.

M. Ajello↗
NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of proportions in mixed pixels through their region characterization

A region of mixed pixels can be characterized through the probability density function of proportions of classes in the pixels. Using information from the spectral vectors of a given set of pixels from the mixed pixel region, expressions are developed for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of probability density functions of proportions. The proportions of classes in the mixed pixels can then be estimated. If the mixed pixels contain objects of two classes, the computation can be reduced by transforming the spectral vectors using a transformation matrix that simultaneously diagonalizes the covariance matrices of the two classes. If the proportions of the classes of a set of mixed pixels from the region are given, then expressions are developed for obtaining the estmates of the parameters of the probability density function of the proportions of mixed pixels. Development of these expressions is based on the criterion of the minimum sum of squares of errors. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed agricultural multispectral imagery data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multistage classification of multispectral Earth observational data: The design approach

An algorithm is proposed which predicts the optimal features at every node in a binary tree procedure. The algorithm estimates the probability of error by approximating the area under the likelihood ratio function for two classes and taking into account the number of training samples used in estimating each of these two classes. Some results on feature selection techniques, particularly in the presence of a very limited set of training samples, are presented. Results comparing probabilities of error predicted by the proposed algorithm as a function of dimensionality as compared to experimental observations are shown for aircraft and LANDSAT data. Results are obtained for both real and simulated data. Finally, two binary tree examples which use the algorithm are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedure.

Bauer, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Reverberation mapping by regularized linear inversion

Reverberation mapping of active galactic nucleus (AGN) emission-line regions requires the numerical deconvolution of two time series. We suggest the application of a new method, regularized linear inversion, to the solution of this problem. This method possesses many good features; it imposes no restrictions on the sign of the response function; it can provide clearly defined uncertainty estimates; it involves no guesswork about unmeasured data; it can give a clear indication of when the underlying convolution model is inadequate; and it is computationally very efficient. Using simulated data, we find the minimum S/N and length of the time series in order for this method to work satisfactorily. We also define guidelines for choosing the principal tunable parameter of the method and for interpreting the results. Finally, we reanalyze published data from the 1989 NGC 5548 campaign using this new method and compare the results to those previously obtained by maximum entropy analysis. For some lines we find good agreement, but for others, especially C III lambda(1909) and Si IV lambda(1400), we find significant differences. These can be attributed to the inability of the maximum entropy method to find negative values of the response function, but also illustrate the nonuniqueness of any deconvolution technique. We also find evidence that certain line light curves (e.g., C IV lambda(1549)) cannot be fully described by the simple linear convolution model.

Krolik, Julian H.↗