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At least 883 records · Page 49

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Materials representation and transfer learning for multi-property prediction

The adoption of machine learning in materials science has rapidly transformed materials property prediction. Hurdles limiting full capitalization of recent advancements in machine learning include the limited development of methods to learn the underlying interactions of multiple elements as well as the relationships among multiple properties to facilitate property prediction in new composition spaces. To address these issues, we introduce the Hierarchical Correlation Learning for Multi-property Prediction (H-CLMP) framework that seamlessly integrates: (i) prediction using only a material's composition, (ii) learning and exploitation of correlations among target properties in multi-target regression, and (iii) leveraging training data from tangential domains via generative transfer learning. The model is demonstrated for prediction of spectral optical absorption of complex metal oxides spanning 69 three-cation metal oxide composition spaces. H-CLMP accurately predicts non-linear composition-property relationships in composition spaces for which no training data are available, which broadens the purview of machine learning to the discovery of materials with exceptional properties. This achievement results from the principled integration of latent embedding learning, property correlation learning, generative transfer learning, and attention models. The best performance is obtained using H-CLMP with transfer learning [H-CLMP(T)] wherein a generative adversarial network is trained on computational density of states data and deployed in the target domain to augment prediction of optical absorption from composition. H-CLMP(T) aggregates multiple knowledge sources with a framework that is well suited for multi-target regression across the physical sciences.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stress intensity factor models using mechanics-guided decomposition and symbolic regression

The finite element method can be used to compute accurate stress intensity factors (SIFs) for cracks with complex geometries and boundary conditions. In contrast, handbook solutions act as surrogate SIF models that provide significantly faster evaluation times. However, the development of conventional surrogate SIF models relies on manual development based on low-order parameterizations. This limits surrogate model accuracy and generalizability. Here, in this paper, we develop a framework for the automated development of mechanics-guided handbook SIF solutions by using interpretable machine learning via genetic programming for symbolic regression (GPSR). Formalizing the mechanics-based approach of Raju and Newman, SIF training data is decomposed into multiple subsets. This decomposition enables parallel GPSR model development of subfunctions, each of which accounts for specific geometrical corrections with respect to a known analytical model. Using this mechanics-based approach with GPSR allows for equations to be learned with improved accuracy and reduced complexity relative to the Raju Newman equations while maintaining the inherent interpretability of mathematical expressions. In this paper, we present equations that match the complexity of the Raju Newman equations while having reduced error, as well as equations with similar errors and reduced complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Universal energy-speed-accuracy trade-offs in driven nonequilibrium systems

The connection between measure theoretic optimal transport and dissipative nonequilibrium dynamics provides a language for quantifying nonequilibrium control costs, leading to a collection of thermodynamic speed limits, which rely on the assumption that the target probability distribution is perfectly realized. This is almost never the case in experiments or numerical simulations, so here we address the situation in which the external controller is imperfect. We obtain a lower bound for the dissipated work in generic nonequilibrium control problems that (1) is asymptotically tight and (2) matches the thermodynamic speed limit in the case of optimal driving. Along with analytically solvable examples, we refine this imperfect driving notion to systems in which the controlled degrees of freedom are slow relative to the nonequilibrium relaxation rate, and identify independent energy contributions from fast and slow degrees of freedom. Furthermore, we develop a strategy for optimizing minimally dissipative protocols based on optimal transport flow matching, a generative machine learning technique. Furthermore, this latter approach ensures the scalability of both the theoretical and computational framework we put forth. Crucially, we demonstrate that we can compute the terms in our bound numerically using efficient algorithms from the computational optimal transport literature and that the protocols we learn saturate the bound.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Hashed Binary Search Sampling for Convolutional Network Training with Large Overhead Image Patches

Very large overhead imagery associated with ground truth maps has the potential to generate billions of training image patches for machine learning algorithms. However, random sampling selection criteria often leads to redundant and noisy-image patches for model training. With minimal research efforts behind this challenge, the current status spells missed opportunities to develop supervised learning algorithms that generalize over wide geographical scenes. In addition, much of the computational cycles for large scale machine learning are poorly spent crunching through noisy and redundant image patches. We demonstrate a potential framework to address these challenges specifically, while evaluating a human settlement detection task. A novel binary search tree sampling scheme is fused with a kernel based hashing procedure that maps image patches into hash-buckets using binary codes generated from image content. The framework exploits inherent redundancy within billions of image patches to promote mostly high variance preserving samples for accelerating algorithmic training and increasing model generalization.

Lunga, Dalton↗

DOE OSTI2020

Explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence for correctable modeling in chemical sciences

Data science has primarily focused on big data, but for many physics, chemistry, and engineering applications, data are often small, correlated and, thus, low dimensional, and sourced from both computations and experiments with various levels of noise. Typical statistics and machine learning methods do not work for these cases. Expert knowledge is essential, but a systematic framework for incorporating it into physics-based models under uncertainty is lacking. Here, we develop a mathematical and computational framework for probabilistic artificial intelligence (AI)–based predictive modeling combining data, expert knowledge, multiscale models, and information theory through uncertainty quantification and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). We apply PGMs to chemistry specifically and develop predictive guarantees for PGMs generally. Our proposed framework, combining AI and uncertainty quantification, provides explainable results leading to correctable and, eventually, trustworthy models. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a microkinetic model of the oxygen reduction reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

VEESA R package

SAND2024-04584O R package for applying the VEESA pipeline method is a technique used for explainable machine learning with functional data. The VEESA pipeline makes use of the elastic-shape analysis framework for functional data. It also implements functional principal component analysis and permutation feature importance. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, James↗

DOE OSTI2018

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec) Final Report

Critical infrastructure systems continue to foster predictable communication patterns and static configurations over extended periods of time. The static nature of these systems eases the process of gathering reconnaissance information that can be used to design, develop, and launch attacks by adversaries. In this research effort, the early phases of an attack vector will be disrupted by randomizing application port numbers, IP addresses, and communication paths dynamically through the use of overlay networks within Industrial Control Systems (ICS). These protective measures convert static systems into "moving targets," adding an additional layer of defense. Additionally, we have developed a framework that automatically detects and defends against threats within these systems using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms that classify and categorize abnormal behavior. Our proof-of-concept has been demonstrated within a representative ICS environment. Performance metrics of our proof-of-concept have been captured with latency impacts of less than a millisecond, on average.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach

This study implements a data-intensive supervised ML approach through a quasi-experimental framework with the objective of quantifying the impact of oil and gas operator-specific proprietary data on ML-based predictive model performance relative to using oil and gas datasets that may be more commonly publicly available. The models are designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottom-hole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well completion attributes. Model performance is quantified on holdout test data to evaluate how each dataset affects resulting model variant performance.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nanoconfined Interfaces for Highly Selective Separation of Critical Rare Earth Elements

Industrial demand for rare earth elements (REEs) has surged over the past three decades due to their unique properties that support sustainable energy and new technologies. Separating individual REEs is challenging and hazardous, typically done through liquid-liquid extraction. There is an urgent need for environmentally friendly and efficient separation technologies for REEs. Porous materials offer promising advances for sustainable REE separation via ion-selective capture. We hypothesize that REE separation can be efficiently achieved in reactive nanopores, such as Zr(IV) and Cr(III) metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), through surface functionalization. By integrating material synthesis, interfacial chemistry experiments, theory, computation, and machine learning, we gained insights into the chemical factors controlling REE speciation and their competitive adsorption on MOFs. Our findings show that these materials’ selectivity can be tuned by surface functionalization. The machine learning component addressed ion-specific diffusion based on MOF topology and chemistry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

MOFX-DB: An Online Database of Computational Adsorption Data for Nanoporous Materials

Machine learning and data mining coupled with molecular modeling have become powerful tools for materials discovery. Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a rich area for this due to their modular construction and numerous applications. Here, we make data from several previous large-scale studies in MOFs and zeolites from our groups (and new data for N 2 and Ar adsorption in MOFs) easily accessible in one place. The database includes over 3 million simulated adsorption data points for H 2 , CH 4 , CO 2 , Xe, Kr, Ar, and N 2 in over 160 000 MOFs and zeolites, textural properties like pore sizes and surface areas, and the structure file for each material. We include metadata about the Monte Carlo simulations to enable reproducibility. The database is searchable by MOF properties, and the data are stored in a standardized JSON format that that is interoperable with the NIST adsorption database. We also identify several MOFs that meet high performance targets for multiple applications, such as high storage capacity for both hydrogen and methane or high CO 2 capacity plus good Xe/Kr selectivity. Here, by providing this data publicly, we hope to facilitate machine learning studies on these materials, leading to new insights on adsorption in MOFs and zeolites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trustworthy Machine Learning for Damage Identification in Composites

A challenging opportunity in structural health monitoring of composite materials is using machine learning (ML) methods to classify acoustic emissions (AE) according to the damage mechanism that emitted the signal. Although a wide variety of ML frameworks have been developed, there is a distinct lack of ground truth datasets which has precluded any direct assessment of their accuracy. Here, we present a novel ground truth dataset gathered on simplified unidirectional SiC/SiC composite structures. Herein, AE is collected from minicomposites which are loaded to targeted percentages of the ultimate tensile stress. These minicomposites are then volumetrically imaged with XCT and individual damage events, along with the mechanism, are correlated to AE. We explore the signal features that allow for mechanism discrimination, along with the feasibility of both unsupervised and supervised frameworks for use in the online monitoring of composite structures.

Machine learning, acoustic emission, ceramic matri↗

DOE OSTI2024

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE 2.7.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.7.0 Release Highlights New features: AutoScaler and CustomScalerBase classes: Such tools are the core of the new scaling framework being implemented in IDAES. Wider adoption of scaling tools among users will result in quicker and more robust model solutions. Scaler for equilibrium reactor and saponification properties: These scaler models are examples to follow for how to use the new scaling tools. ONNX Surrogate support from Optimization & Machine Learning Toolkit (OMLT): ONNX is an open standard format to save and load ML/AI models that is widely supported by all major frameworks. This capability makes it easier for IDAES users to create surrogate models and use them without having to support each framework individually. 1D Membrane Model for CO2 Capture and Utilization: Supports ongoing efforts for modeling and optimizing polymer membrane processes for CO2 capture and conversion into formic acid. StreamScaler unit model: Unrelated to the CustomScalerBase, this unit model allows a stream’s extensive variables to be scaled by a fixed factor. This allows streams being processed by multiple units in parallel to be scaled down to unit scale and scaled back up to process scale. Bug fixes or improvements: Scaling, EoS, Diagnostics tool, Modular Properties, tests & documentation Deprecations: Old Cubic EoS

AS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

ASAP: Automatic Synthesis of Area-Efficient and Precision-Aware CGRAs

Coarse-grained reconfigurable accelerators (CGRAs) are a promising accelerator design choice that strikes a balance between performance and adaptability to different computing patterns across various applications domains. Designing a CGRA for a specific application domain involves enormous software/hardware engineering effort. Recent research works explore loop transformations, functional unit types, network topology, and memory size to identify optimal CGRA designs given a set of kernels from a specific application do- main. Unfortunately, the impact of functional units with different precision support has rarely been investigated. To address this gap, we propose ASAP – a hardware/software co-design framework that automatically identifies and synthesizes optimal precision-aware CGRA for a set of applications of interest. Our evaluation shows that ASAP generates specialized designs 3.2×, 4.21×, and 5.8× more efficient (in terms of performance per unit of energy or area) than non-specialized homogeneous CGRAs, for the scientific computing, embedded, and edge machine learning domains, respectively, with limited accuracy loss. Moreover, ASAP provides more efficient designs than other state-of-the-art synthesis frameworks for specialized CGRAs.

artificial intelligence↗