DOE OSTI2026
Understanding structure-property relationships is foundational to numerous modern chemistries, such as proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET). However, an experimentally measured property is the result of the behavior from an ensemble of molecules. Neglecting ensemble effects, especially under complex chemical environments, may obfuscate these relationships and lead to discrepancies between theory and experiment. In this work, we demonstrate the impact of configurational entropy and local chemical environments on hydroxide bond dissociation free energies [BDFE- (O−H)] for a set of polyoxovanadate nanoclusters, at ambient conditions. The O−H bond strengths are investigated via density functional theory (DFT) coupled with statistical thermodynamic analysis and bilinear modeling, and compared with previous experimental results on the same systems, namely electrochemical solutions of: [V 6 O 13−x (OH) x (TRIOL R ) 2 ] −2 (x = 2, 4, 6; R = NO 2 , Me) and [V 6 O 11−x (OMe) 2 (OH) x (TRIOL NO 2 ) 2 ] −2 (x = 2, 4). Interestingly, we find that ensemble effects, even at room temperature, can account for a significant portion of the BDFE(O−H) trend with the degree of reduction via H atom binding, which cannot be fully captured by single-structure, static DFT calculations. Moreover, we find that the ensemble effects may be replicated statistically, requiring only enumeration of energetically accessible H-binding sites. With the ensemble effects resolved, we present a simple bilinear model to reconcile remaining biases between experiment and ensemble-informed theory, which corelate with clusterspecific electronic environment differences. The bilinear model achieves outstanding accuracy vs experiments with a root-mean squared error of 0.4 kcal/mol. Finally, based on the physicochemical characteristics of hydrogen interaction with polyoxometalates, we present a simple methodology that captures the BDFE(O−H) trend while dramatically reducing required DFT calculations by 98% and achieving accuracy within 1 kcal/mol. Overall, this work elucidates the roles and structural origins of configurational entropy and chemical effects on polyoxometalate hydroxide bond energies, with potential applicability to various atomically precise metal oxide systems. Importantly, it introduces models for rapid and highly accurate property calculations in connection with experiments.