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At least 91 records · Page 5

Regional-scale soil carbon predictions can be enhanced by transferring global-scale soil–environment relationships

Accurate modelling and mapping soil organic carbon are crucial for supporting soil health restoration and climate change mitigation at both regional and global scales. However, regional soil predictions often suffer from data scarcity and high prediction uncertainty. Utilizing a pre-trained global-to-regional soil carbon predictive model can be a potential solution to address this challenge. Despite its promise, how to construct and apply the global-scale model to enhance regional-scale soil carbon mapping remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose the Global Soil Carbon Pre-trained Model (GSoilCPM), a deep-learning-based domain adaptative model, to enhance regional-scale soil carbon predictions. Based on large amount of environmental covariate data and 106,167 soil samples across the globe, we verify our hypothesis of the effectiveness of this 'global-to-regional' modelling strategy. The pre-trained model can be then transferred and fine-tuned to bridge the regional- and global-scale soil–environment relationships. We applied and validated this modelling strategy in four regional-scale study areas, three in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere, each with distinct environmental background. Compared to traditional modelling approaches as a baseline, four case studies all demonstrated significant improvement in prediction accuracy across diverse environments and varying data availabilities. The average percentage improvement across all regions is 10.93% (absolute values decreased by 1.20 g kg−1 averagely) in MAE and 29.04% (absolute values increased by 0.10 averagely) in CCC. The applicability and future horizons of using GSoilCPM were further discussed. We further reveal that regions with fewer soil samples or lower baseline accuracy benefit more from the pre-trained global model. Our findings highlight the advantages of leveraging the generalized knowledge from global models to enhance specifically localized soil modelling, positioning a potential paradigm shift in digital soil mapping, and far-reaching implications for soil monitoring and land management.

Deep learning↗

Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing

Cellulosic biofuels offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels and a means to mitigate climate change. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) featuring engineered thermophilic bacteria, combined with mechanical disruption during fermentation (cotreatment), has potential to lower production costs compared to featuring thermochemical pretreatment and added cellulase. A techno-economic analysis was conducted (230 million L ethanol/year) from sugarcane bagasse and straw at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. Three scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term CBP, relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment. Results for these scenarios in this order were: fixed capital investment (CapEx) $\$$589M, $\$$658M, and $\$$472M; net annual revenue (EBITDA) $\$$56M, $\$$96M, and $\$$94M; and minimum ethanol selling price 0.73, 0.61, and 0.48 US$\$$/L. Payback periods were 10.5, 6.9, and 5.1 years, while all scenarios showed <5 years at European prices for scales >100M L/year. Sensitivity and risk analysis highlighted ethanol price as the most critical variable. It is notable that Mid-term CBP had shorter payback times and better overall economic feasibility compared to Conventional. Our results underscore opportunities for research-driven innovation on low-cost cellulosic ethanol technologies in Brazil and elsewhere.

Consolidated bioprocessing↗

A techno-economic assessment of carbon dioxide removal pathways via biochemical conversion of lignocellulose to biofuels and bioplastics

Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) is a promising pathway to mitigate climate change via large scale removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). We modeled several fermentation technologies, producing a variety of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks, to understand their levelized cost of CO 2 removal under multiple scenarios. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted to provide cradle-to-grave estimates of carbon intensity (CI). We did not account for the avoided fossil CO 2 emissions from the use of biofuels in our CO 2 removal cost calculations, because avoided emissions do not contribute to CO 2 removal. The main products from the fermentation technologies we modeled include renewable diesel, ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and polyethylene (PE), with co-products including CO 2 , adipic acid, steam, and electricity. PE, depending on its end-of-life management, can serve as a form of biogenic carbon storage. PE has the potential to remove 1.2–1.5 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, whereas biofuels have the potential to remove 0.3–0.9 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, indicating that PE production is a more efficient method of carbon removal. We quantify costs of CO 2 removal to be $\$$60 – $\$$675 per metric tCO 2 removed across the various fermentation pathways. Under the scenarios analyzed, bioplastic production from lignocellulosic biomass is a more cost-effective route to CO 2 removal than biofuel production, with costs of CO 2 removal via bioplastics being 50–90 % lower than that of biofuels. Future research should explore the potential benefits and drawbacks of expanding bioplastic production for large-scale CO 2 removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Direct Air Capture of CO 2 via Reactive Crystallization

Atmospheric CO 2 removal using engineered chemical processes, aka direct air capture (DAC), has become an essential component of our available portfolio for mitigating climate change. Here we describe a promising approach to DAC based on reactive crystallization of atmospheric CO 2 (RC-DAC) with aqueous guanidine and amino acid. Compared to the previously studied phase-changing DAC processes involving initial CO 2 absorption by an aqueous alkaline solvent followed by carbonate crystallization in a second step, RC-DAC combines the CO 2 absorption and carbonate crystallization into a single step. Thus, as the insoluble carbonate salts are removed from solution by crystallization, more CO 2 is pulled from the air into solution, further driving the DAC process. The RC-DAC was performed in a household humidifier as the air–liquid contactor, which can handle solid–liquid slurries effectively. The crystallization was monitored in situ by pH measurements, real-time imaging with a microscope probe, and by Raman spectroscopy, and ex situ by NMR spectroscopy, powder X-ray diffraction, and total inorganic carbonate analysis. Further, the investigation provided a detailed mechanistic picture of the RC-DAC process, involving formation of carbamate and carbonate anions in solution, followed by sequential crystallization of different guanidinium carbonate phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Synergetic Effects of Soil Organic Matter Components During Interactions with Minerals

Mineral-associated soil organic matter (SOM) is critical for stabilizing organic carbon and mitigating climate change. However, mineral-SOM interactions at the molecular scale, particularly synergetic adsorption through organic-organic interaction on the mineral surface known as organic multilayering, remain poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of organic multilayering on mineral-SOM interactions, by integrating macroscale experiments and molecular-scale simulations that assess the individual and sequential adsorption of major SOM compounds – lauric acid (lipid), pentaglycine (amino acid), trehalose (carbohydrate), and lignin onto soil minerals. Ferrihydrite, Al-hydroxide, and calcite are exposed to SOM compounds to determine adsorption affinities and binding energies. Results show that lauric acid has 20-40 times higher K d than pentaglycine, following the order K d (ferrihydrite) > K d (Al-hydroxide) >> K d (calcite). Molecular-scale simulations confirm that lauric acid has a higher binding energy (30.8 kcal/mol) on ferrihydrite than pentaglycine (6.0 kcal/mol), attributed to lipid hydrophobicity. The lower binding energy of pentaglycine results from its hydrophilic amide groups, facilitating partitioning into water. Sequential experiments examine how the first layer of lipid or amino acid affects the adsorption of carbohydrate/lignin, which show little or no individual adsorption affinities. Macroscale results reveal that lipid and amino acid adsorption induce ferrihydrite particle repulsion increasing reactive surface area and enhancing carbohydrate/lignin adsorption independently and synergistically through organic multilayering. Molecular-scale results reveal that amino acid adsorbed on ferrihydrite interacts more readily with lignin macroaggregates (preformed in solution) than with individual lignin units, indicating organic multilayering via H-bonding. Further, these findings reveal the molecular mechanisms of SOM-mineral interactions, crucial for enhancing soil carbon stabilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production

Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.

Olsson, Josefine A↗

Carbonation of MgO Single Crystals: Implications for Direct Air Capture of CO 2

Direct air capture (DAC) may be feasible to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere at the gigaton scale, holding promise to become a major contributor to climate change mitigation. Mineral looping using magnesium oxide (MgO) is potentially an economical, efficient, and sustainable pathway to gigaton-scale DAC. The hydroxylation and carbonation of MgO determine the efficiency of the looping process, but their rates and mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, in this work, MgO single crystals were reacted in air or CO 2 at varying humidities and characterized by X-ray scattering, microscopy, and vibrational spectroscopy. Results show that the hydroxylation formed a brucite (Mg(OH) 2 )-like layer immediately after crystal cleaving. Concurrently, the carbonation formed hydrated magnesium carbonate phases, including barringtonite (MgCO 3 ·2H 2 O) and nesquehonite (MgCO 3 ·2H 2 O), in the layer. Rapid initial growth of the layer is also manifested in short-range bending/warping of nanocrystallites, resulting in multiple orientations of the same phases on the surface. The layer growth slowed down over time, indicating surface passivation. The formation of barringtonite and nesquehonite with 1:1 CO 3 /Mg ratio indicates an efficient carbonation when compared to other magnesium carbonate phases of lower ratio. Our results are essential for understanding surface passivation mechanisms and tackling the passivation issue of mineral looping DAC technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Polymer Architecture in CO 2 Capture from Air Using Supported Poly(alkylenimine)s: Linear vs Branched Polymers

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 coupled with geologic storage is a promising climate change mitigation strategy, with some applications employing amines supported on porous solids as CO 2 sorbents. While branched poly(ethylenimine) (PEI) is the standard benchmark amine material, it suffers from limited oxidative stability. Poly(propylenimine) (PPI), as an alternative, has previously demonstrated improved resistance to degradation under harsh oxidative conditions. Linear and branched PEI are commercially available, though at different molecular weights, while PPI is not commercially available. For this reason, a comparative study of all four polymers (linear PEI, branched PEI, linear PPI, branched PPI) has not been reported for DAC. In this study, we synthesize and compare low-molecular-weight (∼800 g/mol) linear (L) and branched (B) PEI and PPI supported on a model support, SBA-15 silica. These materials are evaluated for CO 2 adsorption under dry, DAC-relevant conditions (400 ppm of CO 2 , 30 °C). LPPI exhibited the highest amine efficiency at all loadings, reaching a maximum of 0.14 mmol CO 2 /mmol N, outperforming BPEI, while LPEI consistently showed the lowest uptake capacity. Temperature-programmed desorption reveals that the structure of the amine polymer impacts the CO 2 binding strength, with branched polymers displaying higher desorption energies of 102−111 kJ/mol. In situ infrared spectroscopy experiments show that all sorbents preferentially capture CO 2 as ammonium carbamate. Isobaric CO 2 uptake studies further underscore the influence of polymer mobility and support pore crowding on performance, while demonstrating the sorbents’ performance at elevated temperatures and CO 2 concentrations. All materials demonstrated good stability over 25 adsorption−desorption cycles using thermal regeneration in an inert gas purge, with only BPPI displaying a 10−11% decrease in capacity/amine efficiency during cycling, possibly due to the loss of low molecular weight, oligomeric amines. This is the first side-by-side comparison of the CO 2 sorption properties of linear and branched PEI and PPI with similar molecular weights. These findings highlight the significant role of polymer architecture in CO 2 capture efficiency and inform future designs of durable, high-performance DAC sorbents.

adsorbents↗

Advanced Microstructured BaTiO 3 -Embedded PVDF–HFP/PEO Film for Enhanced Triboelectric Interface in Self-Sufficient Energy Generation and Sensing

The global reliance on fossil fuels and natural gas has largely dominated the energy production field, but due to finite resource depletion and escalating greenhouse gas emissions, the immediate exploration of sustainable energy alternatives to mitigate climate change and ensure resource security has been a major concern. There has been extensive research into other more renewable methods of energy production, such as wind and hydropower. Of these current energy generation types, there are many areas of untapped potential from the mechanical movements generated ambiently not only in the large scale of power generation but also on a smaller scale. The piezoelectric and triboelectric effects are phenomena where these ambient mechanical movements can generate electrical energy. Developing a hybrid system that leverages both mechanical stress and surface charges presents an ideal opportunity to exploit these untapped energy sources. Producing a hybrid PVDF–HFP/PEO film with perovskite BaTiO 3 (BTO) enables ambient power harvesting from both mechanical movement and surface charge. The optimized cell produced a potential of up to 15 V and a current of 200 nA with a 68 kΩ resistor, a substantial increase from a base system with an average of 2.1 V and 40 nA. These hybrid TENGs offer significant potential for energy harvesting in small-scale applications, such as health monitoring devices and indicators in electric circuits.

Ybarra, Rigobert [University of Texas Rio Grande V↗

Land Use Change Alters Soil Organic Carbon: Constrained Global Patterns and Predictors

Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha −1 ) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha −1 ), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha −1 ) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha −1 ), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Fungal Spore Seasons Advanced Across the US Over Two Decades of Climate Change

Abstract Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores—organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens—remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long‐term (2003–2022), large‐scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre‐processed the spore data by gap‐filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches—ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4–23 days) and public health (22 days, 6–38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate‐driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision‐making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality

The climate commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 in China has been announced recently. In the context of pursuing carbon neutrality, sharing similar sources as greenhouse gases, aerosol particle and precursor emissions are projected to substantially decrease in China, which can potentially have a great impact on climate. Here, we investigate the effects of future aerosol reductions, because of achieving carbon neutrality, on solar and wind energy in China by using an earth system model. We show that significant reductions in aerosol emissions, particularly in eastern China, lead to increases in the surface downwelling shortwave radiation, surface air temperature and wind speed, which can further enhance the potential of solar and wind energy production. The findings underline that the pursuit of carbon neutrality can yield co-benefits of not only mitigating climate change and air pollution but also fortifying the stability of renewable energy sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Offshore wind and wave energy can reduce total installed capacity required in zero-emissions grids

Abstract As the world races to decarbonize power systems to mitigate climate change, the body of research analyzing paths to zero emissions electricity grids has substantially grown. Although studies typically include commercially available technologies, few of them consider offshore wind and wave energy as contenders in future zero-emissions grids. Here, we model with high geographic resolution both offshore wind and wave energy as independent technologies with the possibility of collocation in a power system capacity expansion model of the Western Interconnection with zero emissions by 2050. In this work, we identify cost targets for offshore wind and wave energy to become cost effective, calculate a 17% reduction in total installed capacity by 2050 when offshore wind and wave energy are fully deployed, and show how curtailment, generation, and transmission change as offshore wind and wave energy deployment increase.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Adaptive gene loss in the common bean pan-genome during range expansion and domestication

The common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a crucial legume crop and an ideal evolutionary model to study adaptive diversity in wild and domesticated populations. Here, we present a common bean pan-genome based on five high-quality genomes and whole-genome reads representing 339 genotypes. It reveals ~234 Mb of additional sequences containing 6,905 protein-coding genes missing from the reference, constituting 49% of all presence/absence variants (PAVs). More non-synonymous mutations are found in PAVs than core genes, probably reflecting the lower effective population size of PAVs and fitness advantages due to the purging effect of gene loss. Our results suggest pan-genome shrinkage occurred during wild range expansion. Selection signatures provide evidence that partial or complete gene loss was a key adaptive genetic change in common bean populations with major implications for plant adaptation. The pan-genome is a valuable resource for food legume research and breeding for climate change mitigation and sustainable agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mesh-like structure integrated core-shell-shell nanocomposites for enhanced stability and performance in carbon capture

Carbon capture is essential for mitigating climate change, yet most sorbents struggle to combine high capacity with chemical stability. Here we report core-shell-shell (CSS) nanocomposites that integrate adsorption efficiency with exceptional robustness. The design couples a metal-organic framework (MOF) core, which enriches local CO 2 concentration, with a polyamine shell that is reorganized into a porous, ordered network through entanglement with an outer covalent organic framework (COF) shell. This hierarchical architecture enables dual amine functionalization via sequential “click” and Schiff-base reactions, achieving a CO 2 uptake of 3.4 mmol g −1 at 1 bar. The COF outer layer also acts as a protective barrier, suppressing humidity interference and doubling cycling stability under simulated flue gas. Remarkably, the nanocomposites maintain structural integrity after one week in strongly acidic (3 M HNO 3 ) or basic (NaOH, pH=14) environments, underscoring their chemical resilience. By uniting high capacity, cycling durability, and environmental tolerance, this CSS strategy offers a versatile platform for next-generation carbon capture materials.

Yang, Sizhuo [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗