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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

AI in Astrophysics: Tackling Domain Shift, Model Robustness and Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This talk will introduce common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery.

Ciprijanvoic, Aleksandra [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Facet-Dependent Adsorption of Pb(II) on Hematite (001), (116), and (104) Surfaces

Hematite’s common (001) and (012) facets are frequently used in model studies of lead (Pb) adsorption behavior, but there is a lack of research on the high-energy facets, e.g. (104), present in nature. Also, few studies have attempted to connect the molecular details of facet-specific Pb adsorption to macroscopic uptake behavior. Here, to address these knowledge gaps, we investigated Pb(II) adsorption behaviors on facet-engineered hematite nanoparticles dominated by (001), (104), and (116). Adsorption experiments revealed significant variations in Pb(II) uptake among the three samples, with (001) demonstrating the highest capacity and (116) showing the best adsorption efficiency when normalized to specific surface area. Adsorption kinetics followed the pseudo-second-order model, indicating the adsorption process is governed mostly by chemisorption. Adsorption isotherms were well fitted by the Langmuir model, indicating uptake proceeds until roughly monolayer adsorption. Detailed characterization revealed Pb(II) was adsorbed as single atoms with complex inner-sphere binding modes that varied across different facets, indicating adsorption is both structurally and energetically facet-dependent. Co-adsorption experiments further demonstrated Cu 2+ , Zn 2+ , and humic acid significantly promoted Pb(II) adsorption. This study advances the understanding of hematite surface reactivity in controlling macroscopic wet adsorption behaviors, providing valuable insights into the environmental fate of Pb(II).

Contaminant removal↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shift Happens: Building Robust AI Models with Domain Adaptation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research—from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data—exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This summer school session will introduce students to common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation—a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery. The concepts discussed are broadly applicable across physics and other scientific disciplines, making this a valuable topic for anyone interested in building robust, transferable AI models for science.

Ciprijanovic, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000031281719↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermochemical Modeling in Molten Fluoride Salts for Radionuclide Speciation

An important aspect of the licensing process for nuclear reactors is providing a reasonable assurance of safety to the general public. This includes modeling potential radionuclide releases from the reactor during normal operations and accident scenarios, which is known as the reactor’s source term. A new class of advanced (non-LWR) reactors are being developed which use molten salts as the coolant fluid. Because the molten salt coolant represents a credited barrier for radionuclide transport between the fuel and the environment, a necessary aspect of mechanistic source term (MST) analysis for the KP-FHR is modeling the thermochemistry of molten salts. Provided here is a review of the theory of the thermodynamic principles governing multicomponent phase equilibria, the background of molten salt thermochemistry research, and a summary of the thermochemical data relevant to the KP-FHR coolant salt, Li 2 BeF 4 , commonly referred to as “FLiBe”. A review of literature is followed by a brief introduction to methods that can be used to model the thermochemical behavior of molten salt mixtures. The methodology outlined is based on the use of a commercial thermodynamic modeling software called FactSage, which is one of only a few available softwares based on the modified quasichemical model(MQM), which is the recommended solution model for molten salts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multicycle large-eddy simulations of a direct-injection hydrogen-fueled optical engine

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a carbon-free chemical energy carrier and one promising solution for achieving effective decarbonization of the transportation sector, particularly for internal combustion engines (ICEs). With a focus on ICEs, and compared to port-fuel injection, direct injection (DI) of gaseous H 2 during the compression stroke offers potential advantages, which include backfire avoidance and reduction of preignition occurrence. In these last two decades, much research, experimental and numerical, has been devoted to understanding H 2 's mixing and combustion processes in ICEs. Computational fluid dynamics modeling efforts commonly rely on unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) turbulence frameworks, mostly due to their computational affordability. However, many authors have pointed out the opportunity to perform large-eddy simulations (LESs) to investigate the cyclic variability of H 2 engines and assess potential advantages of using LES in place of URANS, especially for lean operation. This study addresses this knowledge gap and presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of the H 2 DI process in an optical engine operating at relatively low tumble conditions, using multicycle LESs. In conclusion, the manuscript presents a thorough validation of the results against experimental data available from the literature as well as direct comparison with URANS, demonstrating the feasibility of multicycle LESs for CFD modeling of DI H 2 -fueled ICEs.

Direct injection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Indirect Tool Condition Monitoring Using Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract Tool condition monitoring (TCM) has become a research area of interest due to its potential to significantly reduce manufacturing costs while increasing process visibility and efficiency. Machine learning (ML) is one analysis technique which has demonstrated advantages for TCM applications. However, the commonly studied individual ML models lack generalizability to new machining and environmental conditions, as well as robustness to the unbalanced datasets which are common in TCM. Ensemble ML models have demonstrated superior performance in other fields, but have only begun to be evaluated for TCM. As a result, it is not well understood how their TCM performance compares to that of individual models, or how homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble models’ performances compare to one another. To fill in these research gaps, milling experiments were conducted using various cutting conditions, and the model groups were compared across several performance metrics. Statistical t-tests were also used to evaluate the significance of model performance differences. Through the analysis of four individual ML models and five ensemble models, all based on the processes’ sound, spindle power, and axial load signals, it was found that on average, the ensemble models performed better than the individual models, and that the homogeneous ensembles outperformed the heterogeneous ensembles.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling SARS-CoV-2 proteins in the CASP-commons experiment

Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) is an organization aimed at advancing the state of the art in computing protein structure from sequence. In the spring of 2020, CASP launched a community project to compute the structures of the most structurally challenging proteins coded for in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Forty-seven research groups submitted over 3000 three-dimensional models and 700 sets of accuracy estimates on 10 proteins. The resulting models were released to the public. CASP community members also worked together to provide estimates of local and global accuracy and identify structure-based domain boundaries for some proteins. Subsequently, two of these structures (ORF3a and ORF8) have been solved experimentally, allowing assessment of both model quality and the accuracy estimates. Models from the AlphaFold2 group were found to have good agreement with the experimental structures, with main chain GDT_TS accuracy scores ranging from 63 (a correct topology) to 87 (competitive with experiment).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models

Atmospheric aerosol and chemistry modules are key elements in Earth system models (ESMs), as they predict air pollutant concentrations and properties that can impact human health, weather, and climate. The current uncertainty in climate projections is partly due to the inaccurate representation of aerosol direct and indirect forcing. Aerosol/chemistry parameterizations used within ESMs and other atmospheric models span large structural and parameter uncertainties that are difficult to assess independently of their host models. Moreover, there is a strong need for a standardized interface between aerosol/chemistry modules and the host model to facilitate portability of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations from one model to another, allowing not only a comparison between different parameterizations within the same modeling framework, but also quantifying the impact of different model frameworks on aerosol/chemistry predictions. To address this need, we have initiated a new community effort to coordinate the construction of a Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT) for use across weather and climate models. We aim to organize a series of community workshops and hackathons to design and build GIANT, which will serve as the interface between a range of aerosol/chemistry modules and the physics and dynamics components of atmospheric host models. GIANT will leverage ongoing efforts at the U.S. modeling centers focused on building next-generation ESMs and the international AeroCom initiative to implement this common aerosol/chemistry interface. GIANT will create transformative opportunities for scientists and students to conduct innovative research to better characterize structural and parametric uncertainties in aerosol/chemistry modules, and to develop a common set of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

RadSim: Math, Utility & RTK

This package includes three parts, (1) gov.llnl.math, (2)gov.llnl.utility and (3)gov.llnl.rtk, which are utilized in the development of Radiation Detector Simulator (RadSim) project. RadSim is being developed to provide the capability to: (1) simulate radiation source emissions, (2) interpolate results from radiation transport tools into a common format to prepare incident flux, and (3) model radiation detector response to rapidly produce synthetic radiation measurement templates. RadSim is targeted for open-source release, which will enable researchers and industry partners to model gamma-ray detectors response to simulated flux from the transport tool of their choice. The techniques and implementation will be entirely transparent, which will allow for improvements and boutique modifications by future researchers beyond the lifespan of this specific project. The first tool of the package, gov.llnl.math, includes classes and functions to define and perform basic math operations. Some of the example features available in the package include defining statistical distributions and performing algebra and matrix operations, all of which are already accessible on publicly available software packages such as MATLAB and ROOT. The second package gov.llnl.utility includes tools commonly used to enable optimization and readability of various data structures such as Java lists and external xml files. Lastly, the gov.llnl.rtk package includes classes and functions to implement methods commonly used in radiation physics, such as data structures to represent and characterize photon spectra and tools to apply well-defined and published methods to calibrate a given spectra.

Cheung, Hoi Sing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Variable Renewable Energy and Storage in the Power Sector

The emergence of variable renewable energy and battery storage technologies have fundamentally transformed the electric power sector and generated demand for analysis to understand their roles in future energy systems. Although unique characteristics of these resources are well-recognized and require more sophisticated methodologies to capture effectively, guidance is limited on best practices and research gaps. This paper selectively reviews recent literature and draws upon our collective modeling experience to offer recommendations to analysts and consumers of model outputs on approaches for modeling variable renewable energy and storage in long-term electric sector models. We focus on regional- and national-scale models with technological, temporal, and spatial detail given their prevalence in planning and policy analysis, though insights are applicable in other settings. The review highlights how the research frontier has advanced in representing renewables and energy storage over the past decade; however, given the many considerations involved with appropriately capturing salient economic and operational characteristics of renewables, there is a gap between commonly used models and state-of-the-art methods. Model simplifications can materially impact policy analysis associated with power sector decarbonization and high renewables deployment, and improving model representations of variable renewables can enhance insights for policymakers and other stakeholders. This review can point the way for improved methods for established models and designs for emerging ones.

energy and environmental policy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning curves for drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool: A National-Scale Interface for Modeling Light and Shade Patterns in Ten Common Agrivoltaic Configurations

Agrivoltaic systems are dual-use configurations that co-locate agriculture and photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and require careful design to balance crop performance and energy generation. A critical element of agrivoltaic design is the spatial and temporal distribution of irradiance and shade within and around PV arrays. To support research, planning, and stakeholder decision-making, we introduce the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool, a novel web-based application that delivers high-resolution irradiance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) modeling for ten standardized PV configurations across the conterminous United States. The tool leverages the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) System Advisor Model (SAM) to perform detailed irradiance simulations, using meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Outputs include seasonal, monthly, weekly, and diurnal patterns of available sunlight, amount of shade, irradiance, and PAR at ground level within agrivoltaic system footprints. For a user's selected location, these results are visualized through interactive visualizations, heatmaps, and time-series plots, designed to be accessible to both technical and non-technical users. In addition to facilitating rapid spatial exploration of agrivoltaic light environments, the tool will offer seamless integration with the InSPIRE Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM). This optional workflow will allow users to port selected site and configuration parameters into a more advanced modeling environment for further customization of structural layouts, crop-system compatibility, power generation, and technoeconomic performance. Finally, to promote open science, the entire dataset will be hosted and available for open access through the OpenEI platform. By standardizing and disseminating high-quality irradiance data and design tools, the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool supports a wide range of users, including researchers, landowners, energy developers, and policymakers, in evaluating the agronomic and energetic feasibility of agrivoltaic systems across the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

DOE FAIR Surrogate Benchmarks Supporting AI and Simulation Research (SBI Surrogate Benchmark Initiative) (Final Report)

Computational Science is being revolutionized by integrating AI and simulation and, in particular, by deep learning surrogate models that can replace all or part of traditional large‐scale HPC computations. Such surrogates can achieve remarkable performance improvements, as much as several orders of magnitude, and save both compute time and energy. The Surrogate Benchmark Initiative (SBI) project creates a community repository and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data ecosystem for HPC application surrogate benchmarks. The SBI team comes from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Indiana University (IU), Rutgers University, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), and the University of Virginia(UVA). SBI repositories include data, code, and all relevant collateral artifacts, that the science and engineering community needs to use and reuse these data sets and surrogates. SBI repositories generate active research from both participants in SBI and the broader AI and domain science communities. This project develops surrogates that use several different neural nets to learn and quickly infer the results of simulations and data systems and capture them as surrogate benchmarks with a rich set of metadata, covering. Data; Model; Metrics specification; Machine specification; Science, Speed, Power Results, We research FAIR metadata for these benchmarks. We develop application surrogate examples as benchmarks across many fields (ANL, UTK, IU, UVA). We also study non Surrogate benchmarks that have many common features and similar issues regarding FAIRness. We work with MLCommons (UVA, UTK), which is a major machine learning benchmarking activity where we get metadata ontologies, software, and benchmarks, benchmarks have datasets, models, and metadata, and they need a technical framework developed by UTK and Rutgers and deployed by UVA. We study features of Surrogates, including performance, training set size, and uncertainty quantification (Rutgers, UVA and IU).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Lateral Groundwater Flow and Subsurface Lower Boundary Conditions on Atmospheric Boundary Layer Development over Complex Terrain

Credible soil moisture redistribution schemes are essential to meteorological models, as lower boundary moisture influences the balance of surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development. While land surface models (LSMs) have vastly improved in their hydrologic representation, several commonly held assumptions, such as free-draining lower boundary, one-dimensional moisture flux, and lack of groundwater representation, can bias the terrestrial water balance. This study explores the impact of LSM hydrology representation on ABL development in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model. The results of summertime WRF simulations with Noah LSM, characterized by 2-m-thick soil and one-dimensional flow, are shown for a domain in the Colorado Rocky Mountain headwaters region. A reference WRF simulation is compared to 1) the same model with soil moisture initialized by the hydrologic model ParFlow; 2) a deep, free-draining simulation; and 3) WRF coupled to ParFlow, a three-dimensional, integrated groundwater-surface water model. Results show that both lateral transport of groundwater and the rate of drainage from the lower soil layer can weaken or reverse the coupling strength between evaporative fraction and ABL over a 5-month summer period. The resulting shifts in low-level moist convection in river valleys and thermally driven airflows yield strengthened anabatic upslope winds and perturbations to regional precipitation.

Forrester, Mary M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spent Nuclear Fuel Mechanical Loads in the General Package Drop Scenario

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program is performing research to determine the mechanical loading conditions applied to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during normal conditions of transportation to inform mechanical tests of SNF and close an important knowledge gap related to the practical disposition of SNF in the US. A recent multi-national collaborative test campaign measured SNF assembly impact response to the 30 cm horizontal package drop scenario, which is a common regulatory basis test of SNF package design. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) are using the test data to validate explicit finite element models to calculate the mechanical loads and structural response of spent nuclear fuel assemblies in the as-tested 30 cm horizontal package drop scenario. Once the as-tested package drop model is validated, the next step is to apply the model to the general 30 cm drop scenario, which includes all impact angles, all fuel assembly types, and all burnup conditions. PNNL is developing a damage model that will incorporate the results of finite element parametric studies to establish trends in SNF mechanical loading to various input parameters, like impact orientation and burnup. The damage model will have the capability to estimate mechanical loads for any single set of input parameters, but it will first be used to describe the upper bounds of potential SNF loading in the 30 cm drop scenario. This paper describes PNNL’s progress toward developing the general solution to the problem of spent nuclear fuel mechanical loads in the 30 cm package drop scenario and it describes the next steps in closing the knowledge gap.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Suspect Instrument Intervals Using Midnight Noise Time Histories

With an intense work ethic, and high levels of devotion to their craft, seismologists continue to battle the elements and wrestle with complex logistics in their efforts to field instrumentation over the entire globe. We are fortunate to see data volumes accelerating in size, and quality continuing to improve; for example, universal timing issues can now be considered rare. However, instrument response issues are still common, and can hinder research that seeks to understand amplitudes of seismic wavefields. We are interested in using the accumulations of seismic data to develop models that will predict high frequency (0.2-20 Hz, and higher) signal amplitudes for explosion monitoring purposes over broad areas, which requires large data sets and extensive quality control. To identify response and station health issues, we have collected noise time histories for global seismic data, focusing on measurements near (but not restricted to) midnight to eliminate diurnal variations, and have manually determined time intervals that appear inconsistent with background behavior. We assign descriptive labels, but do not attempt to diagnose causes. We use these intervals to discard data. To date, we have examined 39,260 channels from 11,105 stations, heavily weighted toward IRIS holdings, dates through 2017 (depending on station, roughly the date we started our manual review), bands between 1 and 8 Hz, finding 24,733 anomalous time intervals. The great majority (90%) of these intervals appear to be shifts of constant offset, often bounded by times of known instrument changes, likely the result of poor documentation of response parameters at one of many stages between the field and the plotter. We hope these results can be of use to our colleagues, and would encourage community efforts to diagnose anomalous behavior, and fix poor responses. We also hope these results will support automation efforts, including application of supervised learning techniques.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗