Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Cost Trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

NASA technology utilization survey on composite materials

NASA and NASA-funded contractor contributions to the field of composite materials are surveyed. Existing and potential non-aerospace applications of the newer composite materials are emphasized. Economic factors for selection of a composite for a particular application are weight savings, performance (high strength, high elastic modulus, low coefficient of expansion, heat resistance, corrosion resistance,), longer service life, and reduced maintenance. Applications for composites in agriculture, chemical and petrochemical industries, construction, consumer goods, machinery, power generation and distribution, transportation, biomedicine, and safety are presented. With the continuing trend toward further cost reductions, composites warrant consideration in a wide range of non-aerospace applications. Composite materials discussed include filamentary reinforced materials, laminates, multiphase alloys, solid multiphase lubricants, and multiphase ceramics. New processes developed to aid in fabrication of composites are given.

Leeds, M. A.↗

Study of a hybrid multispectral processor

A hybrid processor is described offering enough handling capacity and speed to process efficiently the large quantities of multispectral data that can be gathered by scanner systems such as MSDS, SKYLAB, ERTS, and ERIM M-7. Combinations of general-purpose and special-purpose hybrid computers were examined to include both analog and digital types as well as all-digital configurations. The current trend toward lower costs for medium-scale digital circuitry suggests that the all-digital approach may offer the better solution within the time frame of the next few years. The study recommends and defines such a hybrid digital computing system in which both special-purpose and general-purpose digital computers would be employed. The tasks of recognizing surface objects would be performed in a parallel, pipeline digital system while the tasks of control and monitoring would be handled by a medium-scale minicomputer system. A program to design and construct a small, prototype, all-digital system has been started.

Marshall, R. E.↗

The 18/30 GHz fixed communications system service demand assessment. Volume 2: Main text

The total demand for communications services, and satellite transmission services at the 4/6 GHz, 12/14 GHz, and 18/30 GHz frequencies is assessed. The services are voice, video, and data services. Traffic demand, by service, is distributed by geographical regions, population density, and distance between serving points. Further distribution of traffic is made among four major end user groups: business, government, institutions and private individuals. A traffic demand analysis is performed on a typical metropolitan city to examine service distribution trends. The projected cost of C and Ku band satellite systems are compared on an individual service basis to projected terrestrial rates. Separation of traffic between transmission systems, including 18/30 GHz systems, is based on cost, user, and technical considerations.

Gabriszeski, T.↗

Salton Sea Project, Phase 1

A feasibility study was made for a salt gradient solar pond power plant in or near the Salton Sea of California. The conclusions support continuance 5-MWe proof-of-concept experiment, and ultimate construction by an electric utility company of a 600-MWe plant. The Solar Pond concept would be an environmental benefit to the Salton Sea by reversing the increasing salinity trend. The greatest cost drivers are the lake dike construction and pond sealing. Problems to be resolved include method of brine production from Salton Sea water for the first unit (which requires evaporation pond area and time), the high turbidity and color content of the Salton Sea water (which requires pretreatment), and other questions related to pond permeability, bio-activity and soil/brine chemical reactions. All technical and environmental problems appear solvable and/or manageable if care is taken in mitigating impacts.

Peelgren, M. L.↗

The NASA Suborbital Program: A status review

The status of the NASA suborbital program is reviewed and its importance to astrophysical and geophysical programs is assessed. A survey of past scientific and developmental accomplishments, an examination of the trends in program costs, and an analysis of current and future program roles are included. The technical disciplines examined are primarily those of astronomy/astrophysics/solar physics and magnetospheric/ionospheric/ atmospheric physics.

Teeter, R.↗

Augmented Adaptive Control of a Wind Turbine in the Presence of Structural Modes

Wind turbines operate in highly turbulent environments resulting in aerodynamic loads that can easily excite turbine structural modes, potentially causing component fatigue and failure. Two key technology drivers for turbine manufacturers are increasing turbine up time and reducing maintenance costs. Since the trend in wind turbine design is towards larger, more flexible turbines with lower frequency structural modes, manufacturers will want to develop methods to operate in the presence of these modes. Accurate models of the dynamic characteristics of new wind turbines are often not available due to the complexity and expense of the modeling task, making wind turbines ideally suited to adaptive control. In this paper, we develop theory for adaptive control with rejection of disturbances in the presence of modes that inhibit the controller. We use this method to design an adaptive collective pitch controller for a high-fidelity simulation of a utility-scale, variable-speed wind turbine operating in Region 3. The objective of the adaptive pitch controller is to regulate generator speed, accommodate wind gusts, and reduce the interference of certain structural modes in feedback. The control objective is accomplished by collectively pitching the turbine blades. The adaptive pitch controller for Region 3 is compared in simulations with a baseline classical Proportional Integrator (PI) collective pitch controller.

Frost, Susan A.↗

On a Formal Tool for Reasoning About Flight Software Cost Analysis

A report focuses on the development of flight software (FSW) cost estimates for 16 Discovery-class missions at JPL. The techniques and procedures developed enabled streamlining of the FSW analysis process, and provided instantaneous confirmation that the data and processes used for these estimates were consistent across all missions. The research provides direction as to how to build a prototype rule-based system for FSW cost estimation that would provide (1) FSW cost estimates, (2) explanation of how the estimates were arrived at, (3) mapping of costs, (4) mathematical trend charts with explanations of why the trends are what they are, (5) tables with ancillary FSW data of interest to analysts, (6) a facility for expert modification/enhancement of the rules, and (7) a basis for conceptually convenient expansion into more complex, useful, and general rule-based systems.

Spagnuolo, John N., Jr.↗

SmallSat Database

The SmallSat has an unrealized potential in both the private industry and in the federal government. Currently over 70 companies, 50 universities and 17 governmental agencies are involved in SmallSat research and development. In 1994, the U.S. Army Missile and Defense mapped the moon using smallSat imagery. Since then Smart Phones have introduced this imagery to the people of the world as diverse industries watched this trend. The deployment cost of smallSats is also greatly reduced compared to traditional satellites due to the fact that multiple units can be deployed in a single mission. Imaging payloads have become more sophisticated, smaller and lighter. In addition, the growth of small technology obtained from private industries has led to the more widespread use of smallSats. This includes greater revisit rates in imagery, significantly lower costs, the ability to update technology more frequently and the ability to decrease vulnerability of enemy attacks. The popularity of smallSats show a changing mentality in this fast paced world of tomorrow. What impact has this created on the NASA communication networks now and in future years? In this project, we are developing the SmallSat Relational Database which can support a simulation of smallSats within the NASA SCaN Compatability Environment for Networks and Integrated Communications (SCENIC) Modeling and Simulation Lab. The NASA Space Communications and Networks (SCaN) Program can use this modeling to project required network support needs in the next 10 to 15 years. The SmallSat Rational Database could model smallSats just as the other SCaN databases model the more traditional larger satellites, with a few exceptions. One being that the smallSat Database is designed to be built-to-order. The SmallSat database holds various hardware configurations that can be used to model a smallSat. It will require significant effort to develop as the research material can only be populated by hand to obtain the unique data required. When completed it will interface with the SCENIC environment to allow modeling of smallSats. The SmallSat Relational Database can also be integrated with the SCENIC Simulation modeling system that is currently in development. The SmallSat Relational Database simulation will be of great significance in assisting the NASA SCaN group to understand the impact the smallSats have made which have populated the lower orbit around our mother earth. What I have created and worked on this summer session 2015, is the basis for a tool that will be of value to the NASA SCaN SCENIC Simulation Environment for years to come.

Small Satellites↗

Reduced Crew Operations Research at NASA Ames Research Center

In 2012, NASA began exploring the feasibility of single pilot reduced crew operations (SPORCO) in the context of scheduled passenger air carrier operations (i.e., Parts 121 and 135). This research was spurred by two trends in aviation research: the trend toward reducing costs and a shortage of pilots. A series of simulations were conducted to develop tools and a concept of operations to support RCO. This slide deck is a summary of the NASA Ames RCO research prepared for an R T team at Airbus. Airbus is considering moving forward with reducing crew during the cruise phase of flight with long-haul flights and is interested in the work we have completed.

reduced crew operations↗

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗

An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs

The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is generally performed within two arenas: (1) Production testing for certification and acceptance, and (2) Developmental testing for prototype or experimental purposes. The customer base consists of NASA programs, DOD programs, and commercial programs. Resources in place to perform on-site testing include both civil servants and contractor personnel, hardware and software including data acquisition and control, and 6 test stands with a total of 14 test positions/cells. For several business reasons there is the need to augment understanding of the test costs for all the various types of test campaigns. Historical propulsion test data was evaluated and analyzed in many different ways with the intent to find any correlation or statistics that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost estimates and projections. The analytical efforts included timeline trends, statistical curve fitting, average cost per test, cost per test second, test cost timeline, and test cost envelopes. Further, the analytical effort includes examining the test cost from the perspective of thrust level and test article characteristics. Some of the analytical approaches did not produce evidence strong enough for further analysis. Some other analytical approaches yield promising results and are candidates for further development and focused study. Information was organized for into its elements: a Project Profile, Test Cost Timeline, and Cost Envelope. The Project Profile is a snap shot of the project life cycle on a timeline fashion, which includes various statistical analyses. The Test Cost Timeline shows the cumulative average test cost, for each project, at each month where there was test activity. The Test Cost Envelope shows a range of cost for a given number of test(s). The supporting information upon which this study was performed came from diverse sources and thus it was necessary to build several intermediate databases in order to understand, validate, and manipulate data. These intermediate databases (validated historical account of schedule, test activity, and cost) by themselves are of great value and utility. For example, for the Project Profile, we were able to merged schedule, cost, and test activity. This kind of historical account conveys important information about sequence of events, lead time, and opportunities for improvement in future propulsion test projects. The Product Requirement Document (PRD) file is a collection of data extracted from each project PRD (technical characteristics, test requirements, and projection of cost, schedule, and test activity). This information could help expedite the development of future PRD (or equivalent document) on similar projects, and could also, when compared to the actual results, help improve projections around cost and schedule. Also, this file can be sorted by the parameter of interest to perform a visual review of potential common themes or trends. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test data encountered a lot of difficulties which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future data gathering and analysis.

Ramirez-Pagan, Carmen P.↗

Evaluating the benefits of kinetic Monte Carlo and microkinetic modeling for catalyst design studies in the presence of lateral interactions

Popular computational catalyst design strategies rely on the identification of reactivity descriptors, which can be used along with Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) and scaling relations as input to a microkinetic model (MKM) to make predictions for activity or selectivity trends. The main benefit of this approach is related to the inherent dimensionality reduction of the large material space to just a few catalyst descriptors. Conversely, it is well documented that a small set of descriptors is insufficient to capture the intricacies and complexities of a real catalytic system. The inclusion of coverage effects through lateral adsorbate-adsorbate interactions can narrow the gap between simplified descriptor predictions and real systems, but mean-field MKMs cannot properly account for local coverage effects. This shortcoming of the mean-field approximation can be rectified by switching to a lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) method using cluster expansion representation of adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions. Using the prototypical CO oxidation reaction as an example, we critically evaluate the benefits of kMC over MKM in terms of trend predictions and computational cost when using only a small set of input parameters. After confirming that in the absence of lateral interactions the kMC and MKM approaches yield identical trends and mechanistic information, we observed substantial differences between the two kinetic models when lateral interactions were introduced. Here, the mean-field implementation applies coverage corrections directly to the descriptors, causing an artificial overprediction of the activity of strongly binding metals. In contrast, the cluster expansion in kMC implementation can differentiate among the highly active metals but it is very sensitive to the set of included interaction parameters. Considering that computational screening relies on a minimal set of descriptors, for which MKM makes reasonable trend predictions at a ca. three orders of magnitude lower computational cost than kMC, the MKM approach does provide a better entry point for computational catalyst design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unifying principles for catalytic hydrotreating processes (Final Technical Report)

This project builds on the hypothesis that the hydrotreating processes for the removal of oxygen and sulfur are fundamentally similar at the atomic-scale and existing knowledge from the treatment of petroleum derived feedstock can be leveraged for the design of novel catalysts for the upgrade of bio-oil. We tested this hypothesis by comparing computed potential energy diagrams for hydrodesulfurization (HDS) of thiophene over MoS 2 with hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of furan over MoO 3 and concluded that certain aspects, such as catalyst promotion with transition metals, are valid strategies for both reactions. On the other hand, we also noticed significant differences in the mechanism for hydrogen (H 2 ) activation, which requires sites with metallic character. While MoS 2 is known to have metallic edge states that can catalyze H 2 dissociation, this elementary step is prohibitively slow on defect-free oxides. Only in the presence of vacancies or by creating metal/oxide interfaces can efficient H 2 activation sites during HDO be formed. The need for bifunctional catalyst when it comes to efficient and selective HDO or dehydrogenation reactions was further corroborated in joint experimental and theoretical studies of the Guerbet reaction for the coupling of biomass derived oxygenates over PdCu alloys, nitrate reduction over In-promoted Pd nanoparticles, and ethylene dehydroaromatization over Ga-exchanged ZSM-5 zeolites. All of these catalytic systems have in common that catalytic sites with distinct functional requirements are needed to create a working catalyst. Detailed computational studies were carried out for HDO of m -cresol and phenol on Ru-modified TiO 2 surfaces, which allowed us to attribute catalytic activity to the metal/oxide interface. A surprising finding was that heterolytic cleavage of the H-H bond across the Ru/TiO 2 interface was critically important, despite lower barriers for homolytic H 2 activation on Ru metal. The explanation lies in the high barriers for hydrogen spillover from Ru to TiO 2 , which becomes unnecessary in the heterolytic activation pathway. Moreover, we also reported that proton transfer steps between metal and oxide sites are mediated by weakly adsorbed surface water. During attempts to develop and validate a kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for HDO reactions at the Ru/TiO 2 interface, it became clear that lateral interactions are paramount to describe realistic surface chemistry and without these interactions, the reduction and hydroxylation behavior from our simulations was inconsistent with reported experiments. To assess the importance of lateral interactions in popular computational catalyst design strategies relying on the identification of reactivity descriptors, which can be used along with Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) and scaling relations as input to a microkinetic model (MKM) to make predictions for activity or selectivity trends, we compared predicted trends with those obtained from descriptor-based kMC models. We critically evaluated the benefits of kMC over MKM in terms of trend predictions and computational cost when using only a small set of input parameters. After confirming that in the absence of lateral interactions the kMC and MKM approaches yield identical trends and mechanistic information, we observed substantial differences between the two kinetic models when lateral interactions were introduced. The mean-field implementation applies coverage corrections directly to the descriptors, causing an artificial overprediction of the activity of strongly binding metals. In contrast, the cluster expansion in kMC implementation can differentiate among the highly active metals but it is very sensitive to the set of included interaction parameters. Considering that computational screening relies on a minimal set of descriptors, for which MKM makes reasonable trend predictions at a ca. three orders of magnitude lower computational cost than kMC, we concluded that the MKM approach does provide an overall better entry point for computational catalyst design. Overall, this project has led to 11 peer-reviewed publications, and their scientific is impact is well illustrated by their combined 702 citations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Method for Rapid Modeling of Distortion in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Metal Additive Manufacturing Parts

The simulation and modeling of part-level distortion and residual stress in diverse metal additive manufacturing (AM) geometries has great potential to enable the rapid adoption of this technology in engineering design. Moreover, the use of additive manufacturing component libraries (CLs) offer a computationally efficient means of quantifying these part-level defects resultant from AM processing. We report on how the individual simulations of simple shapes, potential entries in a CL, can be superimposed to provide an indication of distortion and residual stresses in complex geometries. Laser powder bed fusion AM was used to construct test geometries of varied shapes and their combinations in the form of CLs in an effort to characterize location-dependent and feature-dependent distortion distributions. Blue light scanning was used to experimentally measure 3D distortions in order to investigate the interaction between the component shapes and local boundary conditions. Overall, part-level distortions were highly dependent on test component geometry, local boundary conditions, and shape combination. Commercial finite element software was used to verify experimental trends and to make predictions of distortion. The use of CLs resulted in over 20 times savings in computational cost while reproducing overall trends in distortion for test geometry assemblies. Therefore, it is anticipated that the use of CLs for L-PBF AM geometries has demonstrated potential to facilitate efficient simulations of full component AM assemblies, thereby reducing the need for costly trial-and-error-type experimental analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The INSTEP Monitoring Network: Merging High-and-Low Cost Measurements to Characterize California Wildfires

Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).

Low-cost sensors↗

Potentialities of TEC topping: A simplified view of parametric effects

An examination of the benefits of thermionic-energy-conversion (TEC)-topped power plants and methods of increasing conversion efficiency are discussed. Reductions in the cost of TEC modules yield direct decreases in the cost of electricity (COE) from TEC-topped central station power plants. Simplified COE, overall-efficiency charts presented illustrate this trend. Additional capital-cost diminution results from designing more compact furnaces with considerably increased heat transfer rates allowable and desirable for high temperature TEC and heat pipes. Such improvements can evolve of the protection from hot corrosion and slag as well as the thermal expansion compatibilities offered by silicon-carbide clads on TEC-heating surfaces. Greater efficiencies and far fewer modules are possible with high-temperature, high-power-density TEC: This decreases capital and fuel costs much more and substantially increases electric power outputs for fixed fuel inputs. In addition to more electricity, less pollution, and lower costs, TEC topping used directly in coal-combustion products contributes balance-of-payment gains.

Morris, J. F.↗

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗