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At least 91 records · Page 5

Understanding the role of segmentation on process-structure–property predictions made via machine learning

Here, the present study investigated the effect of porosity surface determination methods on performance of machine learning models used to predict the tensile properties of AlSi10Mg processed by laser powder bed fusion from micro-computed tomography data. Machine learning models applied in this work include support vector machines, neural networks, decision trees, and Bayesian classifiers. The effects of isosurface thresholding and local gradient approaches for porosity segmentation, as well as image filtering schemes, on model precision were evaluated for samples produced under differing levels of global energy density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-parametric analysis for mixed integer linear programming: An application to transmission upgrade and congestion management

Upgrading the capacity of existing transmission lines is essential for meeting the growing energy demands, facilitating the integration of renewable energy, and ensuring the security of the transmission system. This study focuses on the selection of lines whose capacities and by how much should be expanded from the perspective of the Independent System Operators (ISOs) to minimize the total system cost. We employ advanced multi-parametric programming and an enhanced branch-and-bound algorithm to address complex mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems, considering multi-period time constraints and physical limitations of generators and transmission lines. To characterize the various decisions in transmission expansion, we model the increased capacity of existing lines as parameters within a specified range. This study first relaxes the binary variables to continuous variables and applies the Lagrange method and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to obtain optimal solutions and identify critical regions associated with active and inactive constraints. Moreover, we extend the traditional branch-and-bound (B&B) method by determining the problem’s upper and lower bounds at each node of the B&B decision tree, helping to manage computational challenges in large-scale MILP problems. Here, we compare the difference between the upper and lower bounds to obtain an approximate optimal solution within the decision-makers’ tolerable error range. In addition, the first derivative of the objective function on the parameters of each line is used to inform the selection of lines for easing congestion and maximizing social welfare. Finally, the capacity upgrades are selected by weighing the reductions in system costs against the expense of upgrading line capacities. The findings are supported by numerical simulations and provide transmission-line planners with decision-making guidance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Anatomy of $tthh$ physics at the HL-LHC

The t t h h production at colliders contains rich information on the nature of the Higgs boson. In this article, we systematically studied its physics at the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC), using exclusive channels with multiple ( ≥ 5 ) b -jets and one lepton ( 5 b 1 ℓ ), multiple ( ≥ 5 ) b -jets and opposite-sign dilepton ( 5 b 2 ℓ ), same-sign dilepton ( SS 2 ℓ ), multiple leptons (multi- ℓ ), and ditau resonance ( τ τ ). The scenarios analyzed include: (1) the t t h h production in Standard Model; (2) the t t h h production mediated by anomalous cubic Higgs self-coupling and t t h h contact interaction; (3) heavy Higgs ( H ) production with t t H → t t h h ; and (4) pair production of fermionic top partners ( T ) with T T → t t h h . To address the complication of event topologies and the mess of combinatorial backgrounds, a tool of boosted-decision-tree was applied in the analyses. The 5 b 1 ℓ and SS 2 ℓ analyses define the two most promising channels. For the nonresonant t t h h production, a combination of these exclusive analyses allows for its measurement in the SM with a statistical significance ~ 0.9 σ (with S / B > 1 % ), and may partially break the sensitivity degeneracy with respect to a varying cubic Higgs self-coupling, a difficulty usually thought to exist in gluon fusion di-Higgs analysis at HL-LHC. These sensitivities were also projected to future hadron colliders at 27 TeV and 100 TeV. For the resonant t t h h productions, the heavy Higgs boson in type II two-Higgs-doublet-model could be efficiently searched for between the mass thresholds 2 m h < m H < 2 m t and even beyond that, for relatively small tan β (vacuum alignment), while the fermionic top partners in composite Higgs models could be probed up to ~ 1.5 TeV and ~ 1.7 TeV , for Br ( T → t h ) = 25 % and 50%, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Searching for Neutrino Tridents in the NOvA Near Detector

This dissertation presents a search for neutrino trident production in the NOvA near detector through the coherent ``dimuon" channel: $\nu_\mu +\hspace{1pt}\text{X} \rightarrow \nu_\mu + \mu^- + \mu^+ +\hspace{1pt}\text{X}$. Trident production is a rare, purely electroweak process with sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model. The theoretical background, motivation for studying the process, and previous experimental measurements are reviewed. The analysis uses data collected by the NOvA near detector (ND) from Fermilab's Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam between November 2014 and February 2024, corresponding to an exposure of $25.5\times 10^{20}$ protons on target. The ND is a segmented tracking calorimeter located 800~m from the beam target, receiving neutrinos with a mean energy of 2~GeV. A multi-pass background reduction strategy is implemented, including the development of a novel dimuon-specific tracking technique. Trident candidates are identified using a boost ed decision tree classifier trained on simulated signal and background events. Limited background Monte Carlo statistics necessitate the use of functional fits to sideband data, which are extrapolated to estimate backgrounds in the signal region. The unblinded data contain 9 trident-like events, with an estimated background of 5.66 $\pm$ 5.15 events. This yields a best fit estimate of 3.34 tridents compared to the Standard Model prediction of 4.66. A profiled Feldman-Cousins method is used to determine a 90\% confidence interval of [0,9.1] on the number of signal events, corresponding to an upper limit of 1.95$\times$ the Standard Model prediction. This result represents the lowest energy search for trident events to date, and the first experimental contribution to the process in 27 years.

Bowles, Reed Scott [Indiana U.]↗

Increasing the Scale of the Mass Spectrometry Query Language Compendium with Explainable AI

A significant bottleneck in metabolomics data interpretation is the effective use of domain knowledge to assign structural information based on fragmentation patterns. The mass spectrometry query language (MassQL) aims to make this process accessible and applicable across multiple analysis platforms. While advanced computational methods are capable of predicting compound structures from fragmentation data, AI/ML approaches often rely on complex, opaque criteria that are difficult to interpret or modify. As a result, their predictive patterns cannot be readily translated into human-readable rules, such as those used in MassQL. Here, in this study, we introduce ChemEcho, a machine learning embedding method that converts tandem mass spectrometry data into sparse feature vectors containing peak and neutral mass subformulae to enhance explainable AI/ML-based methods. An advantage of this approach is that decision trees trained using these feature vectors can be directly translated to MassQL. Using a battery of decision trees trained using ChemEcho embeddings to predict molecular attributes, we generated over 1500 MassQL queries for 765 molecular features and evaluated their precision and recall. From these queries, the 50 highest-performing queries were integrated into the MassQL compendium. This set of generated MassQL queries included environmentally and biologically relevant classes such as PFAS and molecules containing phosphate or sulfate substructures. To illustrate the impact these queries would have on a typical metabolomics experiment, these MassQL queries were applied to a public metabolomics data set─resulting in a marked increase in the structural information derived from tandem mass spectra. Access and reuse of these queries is expected to enhance structural annotation in untargeted experiments, leading to more specific claims and advancing many applications in metabolomics.

Harwood, Thomas V. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (↗

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

A Hierarchical Feature-Based Methodology to Perform Cervical Cancer Classification

Prevention of cervical cancer could be performed using Pap smear image analysis. This test screens pre-neoplastic changes in the cervical epithelial cells; accurate screening can reduce deaths caused by the disease. Pap smear test analysis is exhaustive and repetitive work performed visually by a cytopathologist. This article proposes a workload-reducing algorithm for cervical cancer detection based on analysis of cell nuclei features within Pap smear images. We investigate eight traditional machine learning methods to perform a hierarchical classification. We propose a hierarchical classification methodology for computer-aided screening of cell lesions, which can recommend fields of view from the microscopy image based on the nuclei detection of cervical cells. We evaluate the performance of several algorithms against the Herlev and CRIC databases, using a varying number of classes during image classification. Results indicate that the hierarchical classification performed best when using Random Forest as the key classifier, particularly when compared with decision trees, k-NN, and the Ridge methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Insight to Fission Gas Pores Distribution in Irradiated Annular U-10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning

Metallic fuels, particularly U-10Zr and its performance in reactor irradiation conditions, have been thoroughly investigated and are a promising candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast spectrum nuclear reactors. Irradiation in reactors can lead to the formation of fission gas and increased pore formation which can significantly impact fuel performance. Due to the large number of pores and various phases formed in metallic fuel during irradiation, a quantitative description of fission gas pores as a function of irradiation conditions is not yet available, undermining the fidelity of fuel performance modeling to support fuel qualification. It has been difficult to clearly detect pore boundaries and distinguish matrix phases from fission gas pores using optical microscopy by using simple threshold methods working with low magnification images. The pre-trained deep learning model for fission gas pore detection was applied to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. The model increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation to obtain statistical features, which cannot be processed manually. A pre-trained decision tree model was used to classify pores as isolated or connected pores, providing new insight into the correlation between the movement of lanthanides, solid fission products, and the radial temperature gradient developed in fuel irradiation conditions. This paper emphasizes the potential that artificial intelligence-based machine learning models have to accelerate qualification and support nuclear fuel development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Supervised Learning for Distribution Secondary Systems Modeling: Improving Solar Interconnection Processes

The current interconnection process and hosting capacity analysis for distributed energy resources (DERs), such as photovoltaics (PV) and battery energy storage systems, are based on analyzing grid network constraints (voltage and thermal) using only medium-voltage distribution network models. This is because most utilities do not have secondary low-voltage system models that connect service transformers and residential customers. This is important because in many cases the main impact of interconnecting DERs could occur on the low-voltage distribution systems. This paper proposes a supervised learning method to approximate local secondary models to improve the interconnection process. The proposed supervised learning method includes a decision tree model that predicts the secondary topology and a logistic regression model that predicts conductor types. The case studies demonstrate the benefits of including secondary low-voltage circuits in the interconnection process. We report the proposed modeling methodology is readily scalable and thus can reduce the cost and effort of PV interconnection for the industry and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Searching for Clues for a Matter Dominated Universe in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) represent one of the most widely utilized neutrino detection techniques in neutrino experiments, for instance, in the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program and the future large-scale LArTPC: Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The high-end technique, facilitating excellent spatial and calorimetric reconstruction resolution, also enables testing exotic Beyond Standard Model (BSM) theories, such as baryon number violation (BNV) processes (e.g., proton-decay, neutron-antineutron oscillation). At the same time, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated their ubiquitous use in recent decades; ML techniques have also become some of the most powerful tools in high-energy physics (HEP) analyses. Furthermore, the development of algorithms to cater to the needs of problems in HEP (i.e., triggering, reconstruction, improving sensitivity, etc.) has also become an active area of research. By developing a combined approach using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) techniques, the sensitivity of neutron-antineutron oscillation in DUNE is evaluated for a projected exposure of 400kton&middot;years. Additionally, to meet the triggering requirement to select such rare events in DUNE, such a search is only supported with highly efficient self-triggering algorithms. An ML-based self-triggering scheme for large-scale LArTPCs, such as DUNE, is also developed with the intention of implementation on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The ML-based approach for searching for neutron-antineutron oscillation can be demonstrated and validated on the current LArTPC MicroBooNE. The analysis in MicroBooNE represents the first-ever search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in a LArTPC. DUNE's projected 90% C.L. sensitivity to the neutron antineutron oscillation lifetime is 6.45&times;10³² years, assuming 1.327&times;10³⁵ neutron&middot;years, equivalent to 10 years of DUNE far detector exposure (400kton&middot;years). For MicroBooNE, assuming 372 seconds of exposure (equivalent to 3.13&times;10³⁶ neutron&middot;years), the 90% C.L. lifetime sensitivity is found at 3.07&times;10²⁵ yrs, after accounting for Monte-Carlo statistical uncertainty and systematic uncertainty from detector effects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Application of Quantum Machine Learning to High Energy Physics Analysis at LHC using IBM Quantum Computer Simulators and IBM Quantum Computer Hardware

One of the major objectives of the experimental programs at the LHC is the discovery of new physics. This requires the identification of rare signals in immense backgrounds. Using machine learning algorithms greatly enhances our ability to achieve this objective. With the progress of quantum technologies, quantum machine learning could become a powerful tool for data analysis in high energy physics. In this study, using IBM gate-model quantum computing systems, we employ the quantum variational classifier method and the quantum kernel estimator method in two recent LHC flagship physics analyses: $t\bar{t}H$ (Higgs boson production in association with a top quark pair) and $H\rightarrow\mu\mu$ (Higgs boson decays to two muons). We have obtained early results with 10 qubits on the IBM quantum simulator and the IBM quantum hardware. On the quantum simulator, the quantum machine learning methods perform similarly to classical algorithms such as SVM (support vector machine) and BDT (boosted decision tree), which are often employed in LHC physics analyses. On the quantum hardware, the quantum machine learning methods have shown promising discrimination power, comparable to that on the quantum simulator. This study demonstrates that quantum machine learning has the ability to differentiate between signal and background in realistic physics datasets.

Chan, Jay↗

A comparison of cost and quality of three methods for estimating density for wild pig (Sus scrofa)

A critical element in efective wildlife management is monitoring the status of wildlife populations; however, resources to monitor wildlife populations are typically limited. We compared cost efectiveness of three common population estimation methods (i.e. non-invasive DNA sampling, camera sampling, and sampling from trapping) by applying them to wild pigs (Sus scrofa) across three habitats in South Carolina, U.S.A where they are invasive. We used mark-recapture analyses for fecal DNA sampling data, spatially-explicit capture-recapture analyses for camera sampling data, and a removal analysis for removal sampling from trap data. Density estimates were similar across methods. Camera sampling was the least expensive, but had large variances. Fecal DNA sampling was the most expensive, although this technique generally performed well. We examined how reductions in efort by method related to increases in relative bias or imprecision. For removal sampling, the largest cost savings while maintaining unbiased density estimates was from reducing the number of traps. For fecal DNA sampling, a reduction in efort only minimally reduced costs due to the need for increased lab replicates while maintaining high quality estimates. For camera sampling, efort could only be marginally reduced before inducing bias. We provide a decision tree for researchers to help make monitoring decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attack-resilient algorithms and testbed federation for wide-area protection and control in smart grid

Today’s energy infrastructure is undergoing a massive transformation across all generation, transmission, and distribution systems to provide reliability, efficiency, and sustainability to the power system network. During the past 10 years, there has been a remarkable enhancement in developing close-loop wide-area protection and control (WAPAC) applications, such as automatic generation control (AGC), wide-area protection scheme (WAPS), synchrophasor-based wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), etc., in the energy management system (EMS) to provide an adequate situational awareness to control center operators during physical disturbances and natural events. The rapid digitalization, unencrypted communication, and numerous data-sharing devices have increased digital access points that have exposed the grid network to countless cyberattacks pertinent to the WAPAC cybersecurity. Given the amount of complex grid network coupled with legacy infrastructures, it is untrustworthy to completely rely on information technology (IT)-based conventional security measures to defend against evolving cyberattacks. Hence, there is a compelling need to go beyond the traditional paradigm of ‘security by obscurity’ and ‘bolt-on’ security measures, and develop a suite of innovative security solutions at multiple layers to transform the current “fault-resilient” grid into “fault and attack-resilient” grid of the future. This dissertation specifically focuses on developing application-specific attack-resilient solutions for critical WAPAC applications in the smart grid. The first part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Protection Scheme, presents a cyber-physical attack-resilient system (CPARS) for WAPS, where two anomaly detection methods are proposed to detect multi-level cyberattacks followed by the rules-based intrusion mitigation system (RIMS) to initiate effective mitigation strategies, tailored to these attacks, to restore the normal grid operation after disturbances. The first anomaly detection component, Machine learning-based Anomaly Detection for Centralized WAPS, discusses a novel architecture and methodology for developing a machine-learning-based anomaly detection system (ADS) for the centralized wide-area protection system (CWAPS) by applying the variational mode decomposition (VMD) technique and decision tree (DT) algorithms using cyber logs and synchrophasor measurements. The second component, Multi-Agent-based Anomaly Detection for Decentralized WAPS, presents a two-level hierarchical multi-agent-based decentralized WAPS against the system-aware stealthy cyber-attacks. Finally, for the RIMS, the state transition diagram-based mitigation measures are defined based on the grid operation states and experimental testing and evaluation are presented in a cyber-physical testbed environment. The second part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Voltage Control System, addresses the existing vulnerabilities in the wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), presents the methodology for performing an impact analysis during data integrity attacks, and proposes a data-driven attackresilient system (DARS) by incorporating machine learning-based ADS and rules-based anomaly mitigation system (RAMS) to detect these attacks and provide necessary mitigation actions to maintain the transient voltage stability after disturbances. Finally, the third part, Networked Federation Testbed (NEFTSec) for Smart Grid Cybersecurity, focuses on developing an interconnected federated testbed through a common network like the internet, describes its conceptual architectures, and also presents its design components for experimental testing, validation, and evaluation. Further, it presents the co-simulation interface algorithm (CIA) to facilitate the geographically-dispersed real-time distributed simulation (GD-RTDS) during the cyber-physical federation. In general, this dissertation presents innovative attack-resilient solutions for WAPAC applications that are experimentally tested and evaluated using the PowerCyber testbed and NEFTSec platform to accelerate the transition of state-of-the-art research works to the real-field deployments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Detecting anomalous packets in network transfers: investigations using PCA, autoencoder and isolation forest in TCP

Large-scale scientific workflows rely heavily on high-performance file transfers. These transfers require strict quality parameters such as guaranteed bandwidth, no packet loss or data duplication. To have successful file transfers, methods such as predetermined thresholds and statistical analysis need to be done to determine abnormal patterns. Network administrators routinely monitor and analyze network data for diagnosing and alleviating these, making decisions based on their experience. However, as networks grow and become complex, monitoring large data files and quickly processing them, makes it improbable to identify errors and rectify these. Abnormal file transfers have been classified by simply setting alert thresholds, via tools such as PerfSonar and TCP statistics (Tstat). This paper investigates the feasibility of unsupervised feature extraction methods for identifying network anomaly patterns with three unsupervised classification methods—principal component analysis, autoencoder and isolation forest. Here, we collect file transfer statistics from two experiment sets—synthetic iPerf generated traffic and 1000 Genome workflow runs, with synthetically introduced anomalies. Our results show that while PCA and a simple autoencoder finds it difficult to detect clusters, the tree-variant isolation forest is able to identify anomalous packets by breaking down TCP traces into tree classes early.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Segmentation and Classification of Fission as Pores in Reactor Irradiated Annular U–10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning Models

Metallic fuels, particularly U—10Zr, are promising candidates for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Irradiation of nuclear fuels in reactors can lead to the formation of solid and gas fission product which subsequently forms microstructural pores, deteriorating fuel performance. Due to the massive amount of pores and complex phases formed, a quantitative description of fission gas pores is not yet available, preventing the development of microstructure-informed fuel performance modeling for fuel qualification. This paper applied a pre-trained deep learning model to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. This method increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation and allows statistical features to be extracted which cannot be achieved manually. A pre-trained decision tree model worked on the segemenation results and further classified the pores into different categories to produce a correlation between the pores, movement of lanthanides, and temperature gradient during irradiation. Finally, this paper emphasizes the potentials of machine learning models to accelerate fuel research, development, and qualification for advanced reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A comparison of machine learning methods to classify radioactive elements using prompt-gamma-ray neutron activation data

The detection of illicit radiological materials is critical to establishing a robust second line of defence in nuclear security. Neutron-capture prompt-gamma activation analysis (PGAA) can be used to detect multiple radioactive materials across the entire Periodic Table. However, long detection times and a high rate of false positives pose a significant hindrance in the deployment of PGAA-based systems to identify the presence of illicit substances in nuclear forensics. In the present work, six different machine-learning algorithms were developed to classify radioactive elements based on the PGAA energy spectra. The model performance was evaluated using standard classification metrics and trend curves with an emphasis on comparing the effectiveness of algorithms that are best suited for classifying imbalanced datasets. We analyse the classification performance based on Precision, Recall, F1-score, Specificity, Confusion matrix, ROC-AUC curves, and Geometric Mean Score (GMS) measures. The tree-based algorithms (Decision Trees, Random Forest and AdaBoost) have consistently outperformed Support Vector Machine and K-Nearest Neighbours. Based on the results presented, AdaBoost is the preferred classifier to analyse data containing PGAA spectral information due to the high recall and minimal false negatives reported in the minority class.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Feature Extraction: Improving Remote Sensor Classification of Non-Proliferation

This research focuses on developing algorithms for nuclear non-proliferation detection using remote sensor modeling. To improve the performance of classification models, we implemented a data pipeline with feature extraction. This pipeline takes raw data and transforms it into smaller data points called features that still describe the model. Improving this classification works towards the departments of energy’s missions of ensuring American’s security and prosperity by creating technology that addresses nuclear challenges. To conduct this analysis, we used the Python programming language and some key packages, including tsfresh and TSFEL. Originally tsfresh was selected because it has the most statistical features out of all the packages. Later TSFEL was incorporated due to the additional features it can extract from data, such as temporal and spectral. However, feature extraction becomes challenging in the presence of missing values. In this case, two additional Python packages were added to our workflow, NumPy and pandas, allowing for the feature extraction process to handle unknown values. Our data pipeline was tested on data collected from a simulation that describes the process state of a physical example. The results show the pipeline’s capability to consume and extract a total 17 features from tabular data. Future work includes producing classifications using decision tree-based models such as XGBoost and improving data collection by analyzing feature importance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Factors Controlling a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Derived Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product over The Seward Peninsula of Alaska

Root-zone soil moisture exerts a fundamental control on vegetation, energy balance, and the carbon cycle in Arctic ecosystems, but it is still not well understood in vast, remote, and understudied regions of discontinuous permafrost. The root-zone soil moisture product (30 m resolution) used in this analysis was retrieved from a time-series P-Band (420–440 MHz) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter observations (August 2017 & October 2017). While similar approaches have been taken to retrieve surface (0 cm to 5 cm) soil moisture from L-Band (1.2 GHz) SAR backscatter, this is one of the first known attempts at reaching the root-zone in permafrost regions. Here, we analyze secondary factors (excluding primary factors, such as precipitation) controlling summer (August) soil moisture at depths of 6 cm, 12 cm, and 20 cm over a 4500 km2 area on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using a random forest model, we quantify the impact of topography, vegetation, and meteorological factors on soil moisture distributions. In developing the random forest model, we explore a variety of feature scales (30 m, 60 m, 90 m, 120 m, 180 m, and 240 m), tune hyperparameters (the structure of individual decision trees making up the ensemble including the number and depth of trees), and perform the final feature selection using cross-validated recursive feature elimination. Results suggest that root-zone soil moisture on the Seward Peninsula is primarily controlled by vegetation at 6 cm, but deeper in the soil column topography and meteorological factors, such as predominant winter wind direction and summer insolation, play a larger role. The random forest model accounts for 40% to 60% of the variation observed (R2 = 0.44 at 6 cm, R2 = 0.52 at 12 cm, R2 = 0.58 at 20 cm). These results indicate that vegetation is the dominant control on soil moisture shallow in the soil column, but the impact of vegetation does not extend to deeper layers retrieved from P-Band SAR backscatter.

Dann, Julian↗