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Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction

Regularization prescription for the mixing between nonlocal gluon and quark operators

It is well known that in the study of mixing between nonlocal gluon and quark bilinear operators there exists an ambiguity when relating coordinate space and momentum space results. In this work, we show that this ambiguity is due to the lack of a proper regularization prescription of the singularity that arises when the separation between the gluon/quark fields approaches zero. We then demonstrate that dimensional regularization resolves this issue and yields consistent results in both coordinate and momentum space. This prescription is also compatible with lattice extractions of parton distributions from nonlocal operators.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Frequency Control and Disturbance Containment Using Grid-Forming Embedded Storage Networks

The paper presents a distributed approach for operating a network of inverter-based energy storage resources embedded in a bulk power system. Departing from their traditional role of steady-state reserves, the storage assets in the network are utilized as frequency-responsive resources shaping system dynamics. The power electronics converter systems interfacing the storage resources are equipped with local controllers designed to respond under transient disturbances. To this end, a safety-constrained distributed control strategy is explored. The paper compares the performance of converter-interfaced grid-forming and grid-following storage networks for fast frequency control and disturbance containment/localization. Sensitivity studies are performed to study the impact of storage size, steady-state dispatch, and controller design on dynamic performance. The findings are presented through case studies with results from the IEEE test systems.

Chatterjee, Kaustav (ORCID:0000000153273860)

Data Center High-Temperature Liquid Cooling and Heat Reuse Techno-Economic Study: Preprint

Data centers are energy-intensive facilities with growing demands for efficiency and cost-effective operations. Smaller, more distributed edge inference data centers are expected to proliferate as AI applications require low latency closer to the user of AI tools, which presents a growing opportunity to explore the systems implications of liquid cooling on water and energy use. This study analyzes the implementation of high-temperature liquid cooling systems in a prototypical inference 1-MW data center and explores the potential for heat reuse across varying climates with a goal to optimize energy efficiency, reduce capital and operational costs, and identify opportunities for high-performance cooling and water use reduction infrastructure. This analysis evaluated configurations utilizing a peak day hourly sizing and systems performance spreadsheet to evaluate design and operational conditions from which component sizes, installed cost, operational cost, and performance metrics were determined for the Base case and the Elevated case. The techno-economic analysis included heat reuse applications across a range of heat recovery temperatures and heat rejection options. The analysis shows that high-temperature liquid cooling allows for improved energy efficiency, lower water consumption, and lower capital costs compared to traditional cooling approaches. Transitioning to elevated water inlet/outlet temperatures (50 degrees C/60 degrees C) eliminates the need for chillers, cooling towers, and heat recovery equipment in many scenarios across three distinct climate zones. This results in up to 75% capital cost savings for the cooling and heat recovery equipment, and with significantly reduced water consumption, especially in non-heat reuse applications. Heat generated from data centers can also be repurposed for space heating, domestic hot water, and other applications, and is most cost-effective when data center outlet temperatures exceed 55-60 degrees C.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

High-Fidelity Analysis of EV Integration on Real Utility Feeders in Colorado

Residential electric vehicle (EV) charging has the potential to alter long-held assumptions on load characteristics impacting distribution grid planning, operations, and design standards. This study identifies analysis and control methods to increase the affordability of residential EV charging both for Xcel Energy and their customers. The project also provides solutions for more reliable grid interconnection that can support a reliable utility business model prepared for increasing EV charging load in the coming years. For this project, we referenced Level 2 alternating current (AC) onboard charging profiles for various vehicle models and high-fidelity charging data collected at the experimental setup established at the EV Research Infrastructure Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Next, we developed EV adoption models for 2030 and 2040 for the Boulder and Aurora regions in Colorado. Moreover, we evaluated different smart charging control algorithms and compared their performance. We developed time-of-use (TOU)-based and grid-aware active EV charging control methods and integrated them within the study region to understand field impacts. Diving deeper, we selected 10 feeders in Boulder and Aurora for high-fidelity grid modeling down to the house level. We executed detailed grid analysis comparing the smart charge management (SCM) algorithms we developed. Finally, we created a novel tool, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure--Distribution System Integration Tool (EVI-DiST), to integrate all the approaches in a single software environment to provide easy integration, fast simulation, and detailed evaluation capability for utility engineers and other stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

VOLTTRON/volttron-pnnl-aems

The Autonomous Energy Management Software (AEMS) system will continuously optimize the operations of the distributed energy resources in the small and medium size commercial building by minimizing energy consumption and cost, while providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. Initially, AEMS system will manage rooftop air conditioners and heat pumps but it can be extended in the future to manage, hot water heaters, storage (battery and thermal), electric vehicle charging and monitoring solar photovoltaic. AEMS support both energy efficiency and grid service features.

Bleeker, Amelia [Pacific Northwest National Labora

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

High-speed tunable generation of random number distributions using actuated perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions

Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions (pMTJs) actuated by nanosecond pulses are emerging as promising devices for true random number generation (TRNG) due to their intrinsic stochastic behavior and high throughput. In this work, we demonstrate the tunability and quality of random number distributions generated by pMTJs operating at a frequency of 104 MHz. First, changing the pulse amplitude is used to systematically vary the probability bias. The variance of the resulting bitstreams closely matches the expected binomial distribution, demonstrating consistency with an underlying sequence of Bernoulli trials. Second, the quality of uniform distributions of 8-bit random numbers generated with a probability bias of 0.5 is considered. A reduced chi-square analysis of these data shows that only two XOR operations are sufficient to achieve this distribution with p-values greater than 0.05. Finally, we show that there is a correlation between long-term probability bias variations and pMTJ resistance. These findings suggest that variations in the characteristics of the pMTJ underlie the observed variation of probability bias. In conclusion, our results highlight the potential of stochastically actuated pMTJs for high-speed, tunable TRNG applications, showing the importance of the stability of pMTJ device characteristics in achieving reliable, long-term performance.

Magnetic tunnel junctions

Distribution System Congestion Management - A Survey of Reliable Integration for Aggregated Resources and Microgrids

Rising penetration of consumer-owned Distribution Grid Resources (DGRs), increasingly managed by third party aggregators and enrolled in grid services and wholesale market programs, can create localized congestion in distribution networks. Managing these constraints is challenging due to a persistent coordination and information gap: utilities are accountable for reliability and have network topology and state visibility, while aggregators control the DGR capability needed to relieve congestion. This survey synthesizes congestion management solutions for distribution systems with high DGR penetration, covering both market-based mechanisms (distribution level markets, locational pricing, flexibility auctions) and non-market-based solutions (network reconfiguration, direct DGR control, demand response, curtailment, etc.). The literature is organized across three decision horizons: long term planning, operational planning, and real-time operation. Special attention is devoted to emerging distribution system operator architectures and coordination frameworks spanning transmission system operators, aggregators, and microgrids. Drawing on recent case studies and implementations, we distill best practices, identify key technical and economic barriers, and outline research directions. The evidence points to a shift toward integrated congestion management that combines market signals with technical controls, enabled by improved monitoring, forecasting, and closed loop control capabilities.

Active Distribution Networks (ADN)

Distributed Wind Monitoring Best Practices

Accessible performance and operational data have been identified as a key enabler for distributed wind energy industry advancement. While utility-scale wind turbines benefit from reliable and continuous supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)-based monitoring platforms, monitoring of the U.S. fleet of distributed wind (DW) turbines has been more inconsistent, unreliable, and sometime difficult to access. Without fleet monitoring data, the industry will never understand and thus work to improve turbine under-performance and reliability issues. For the DW industry to scale up, attract investors, and boost credibility, fleetwide monitoring must be robust and reliable, select data must be made accessible to stakeholders, and the data must be in a format useful to users. To help move the industry toward a more standardized, accessible stream of monitoring data, this distributed wind monitoring best practices report attempts to cover topics including key monitoring channels, hardware, communication strategies, and accessibility. Strategic engagement with DW original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), service providers, lab and university researchers, testing organization, certification bodies, end users and solar photovoltaic (PV) monitoring experts has enabled a better understanding of the current state-of-the-art of monitoring and aided in articulating this set of best practices that will guide OEMs toward harmonized monitoring strategies, aimed at a future goal of achieving accessible performance and operational data for the entire fleet of U.S. distributed wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY

Optimization-Based Deconfliction of Distribution System Applications

Power distribution systems are transitioning towards a future with large numbers of controllable grid-edge devices and distributed generation, as well as more complex operational objectives. This evolution requires a new distribution management approach, and modular applications can play a significant role. Thus, new strategies to coordinate independent applications with diverging operational goals are necessary. In this paper, we propose a novel optimization-based deconflictor to facilitate coordination in future advanced distribution management systems.

application deconfliction, power system optimizati

Hydropower Black Start: A Guidebook for Retrofitting Grid Dependent Hydropower

Not all United States (US) hydropower plants were designed to provide black start, but they are increasingly needed to uphold resilience in the evolving electric grid. This guidance is designed to help understand the minimal retrofits required for grid dependent hydropower (GDH) plants behind the point of interconnection (POI). For distribution connected hydropower plants or those with dedicated cranking paths, such upgrades can be sufficient for the plant to provide black start. For others, more coordination with the transmission system operator will be needed. This guidebook answers a number of questions relevant to retrofitting hydropower plants with black start capabilities. For example, the guidebook answers: • How flexible do the wicket gate controls need to be? • Who needs to do hydro governor model validation, why, and how? • How robust and flexible do the excitation and AVR controls need to be? • What protection settings need to be adjusted? • What relay(s) will need to be bypassed or overridden and at what risk? • What is the electrical energy demand of the station load or auxiliary power systems? • What should the strategy to energize transformer(s) along cranking path to address inrush currents be? • How should the critical load restoration be sequenced? In addition to outlining the specifications that hydropower plants need to meet for each component to be able to perform black start, this guidebook provides a set of case studies for specific upgrades needed at actual plants. Between the case studies of plants that have already performed black start retrofits and the examples of how this guidebook can be applied to scope future retrofits, five key themes have been identified for retrofit needs. 1. Protection needs “black start” mode: hydropower plants that are not designed with black start capabilities will have protections that prevent them from interconnecting to a “dead bus.” These protections will need to be overridden in every retrofit case and a separate black start mode should be established so that operators can safely switch between black start and grid connected modes, minimizing the risk to the plant. 2. Wicket gates need modern controls: digital governors accelerate the parameter tuning process and gate position sensors improve controllability, so plants with mechanical governors should be upgraded. Furthermore, a black start and islanding mode should be established for controls to maximize plant performance. 3. Robust excitation support: the DC system or excitation generator needs to be reliable enough to form and sustain the rotor electromagnetic field. These systems are typically undersized in plants that were not designed for black start, so they will need to be upgraded. 4. Turbine-governor model validation and operator training: validation of a standard hydro governor model is needed to characterize the dynamic response (i.e., inertial and primary frequency response) of the GDH. This is required for control development and old hydropower plants often have outdated or incorrect models. Operator training is also typically required to ensure the hardware retrofits are utilized correctly during the black start process. 5. Transformer and cranking path energization: any upgradation and control adjustment in front of the POI will depend upon the existing interconnection. Coordination with the transmission or distribution operator may be required.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Advanced Sensor Deployment for Distribution System State Estimation and Fault Identification

Distribution systems are currently facing steep operational challenges as a result of the rapidly increasing integration of renewables and other distributed energy resources (DERs) at both the primary and secondary circuit levels. Distribution utilities and system operators have traditionally had some visibility of their primary circuits using low-frequency supervisory control and data acquisition systems, and they have had very poor if not zero visibility of the secondary circuits where the presence of DERs is constantly increasing. Therefore, this paper presents simulation studies to demonstrate the benefits of an advanced, high-fidelity sensor technology, called as the Meta-Alert System (MAS), developed by Electrical Grid Monitoring, Ltd. (EGM), on the distribution grid. First, a reliable model of the EGM sensors is developed, and then two use cases, distribution system state estimation (DSSE) and fault identification are simulated to evaluate the performance of the MAS technology. Simulation results on the Electric Power Research Institute J1 feeder demonstrate that the MAS can effectively participate in system-level DSSE programs and can detect and locate faults faster than traditional distribution protection schemes.

distribution system

A digital twin platform for building performance monitoring and optimization: Performance simulation and case studies

Advancements in sensor technology, data analytics, affordable compute, and communication infrastructure have paved the way for Digital Twin technology in optimizing building operations and controls. This study presents the development of an open and interoperable web-based Digital Twin platform for integrating diverse data streams and facilitating effective user interactions. The platform utilizes modern technologies for the web framework and time-series data management, ensuring scalability and responsiveness. The backend supports seamless integration of diverse data sources and emulators, incorporating data from building sensors and meters, external weather Application Programming Interfaces, and advanced EnergyPlus simulation models of the building and its energy systems including the Distributed Energy Resources that are formulated in Functional Mockup Units. A simulation case study was conducted with FlexLab, a test facility on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus. The case study includes normal operations, Distributed Energy Resource integration, and power outage scenarios, to illustrate the Digital Twin’s ability to provide critical insights into energy performance and thermal resilience. The results demonstrated the platform’s potential as a decision-support tool for optimizing building energy performance and enhancing resilience against extreme weather events. Future work will focus on deploying the Digital Twin platform to a real building for field validation, extending its capabilities to cover more scenarios such as bidirectional Electric Vehicle interactions, and enhancing user engagement.

EnergyPlus

Gluon splitting at small x: a unified derivation for the JIMWLK, DGLAP and CSS equations

We revisit the calculation of the next-to-leading order (NLO) corrections to dijet production in electron-ion collisions at small x. We focus on the back-to-back configuration where the relative transverse momentum P ⊥ of the measured jets is much larger than both their momentum imbalance K ⊥ and the target saturation momentum Q s (x, A). In this regime, we present for the first time a complete calculation of the real NLO corrections, associated with gluon emissions outside the jet cones, at leading power in 1/P ⊥ . Our result exhibits TMD factorisation, with the same hard factor as at tree-level and a NLO correction to the Weiszäcker-Williams (WW) gluon transverse momentum dependent (TMD) distribution which involves four Wilson-line operators. By studying different kinematical regimes for K ⊥ and for the radiated gluon, we recover all the quantum evolutions that were previously identified for this process at NLO: the B-JIMWLK high-energy evolution and the CSS evolution of the gluon WW TMD, and the DGLAP evolution of the gluon PDF. When both K ⊥ and the transverse momentum transferred by the target are large compared to Q s , all the Wilson-line operators boil down to the unintegrated gluon distribution and our NLO result for the gluon TMD can be used to isolate the transverse-momentum dependent gluon splitting function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Recent Metallic Fuel Data Recovery in FIPD

The Metallic Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) [1] is an organized collection of metallic fuel test pin data (U-xPu-yZr, = 0 ~ 28; y = 2 ~ 10) and documentation available to industry. FIPD mainly contains three types of data: (1) Fuel pin fabrication data, including fuel slug diameter, fuel slug length, cladding diameter, smear density, etc. (2) Fuel pin operation conditions, including axial distributions for power, temperatures, fluences, burnup, and isotopic densities, etc. and (3) Fuel pin post-irradiation examination (PIE) data, including fission gas release and gas chemistry, profilometry, and neutron radiography, etc. The operating conditions for pins with PIE data available in FIPD span significant ranges across key parameters. The fuel peak burnup extends from less than 5% up to 20 at%. The cladding peak temperature varies from about 490°C to 660°C. Finally, the cladding peak DPA shows a wide range from less than 5 to 120. These broad ranges reflect the diverse testing conditions and operational parameters captured in the available PIE data. More detail about FIPD can be found in ref. [2]. The database development is an ongoing effort covering metallic fuel experiments from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). As reported in the ref. [3, 4], most of the PIE data generated during the IFR program [5] has been collected, reviewed, processed, and integrated into FIPD. The most recently added PIE data can be found in ref. [4], which shows the collection of over 95% of the PIE data by the time of this paper. The recent improvements to the database are summarized in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Requirements Description of DASSH-F

This report reviews the modeling and simulation capabilities of Argonne National Laboratory’s DASSH code that is used in present reactor analysis activities. These capabilities will be used to establish the set of verification tasks necessary to verify DASSH for use on commercial projects. A similar approach was taken for the PERSENT, REBUS and DIF3D software packages. The DASSH program is a thermal analysis code designed to rapidly allow a reactor design engineer to obtain flow rates requirements that satisfy peak temperature constraints in the domain. DASSH is a follow-on development to the SE2-ANL software and SUPERENERGY-2 software that it is based upon. DASSH was designed to account for both neutron and gamma heating and is inherently connected to the GAMSOR part of the ARC suite of fast reactor analysis software. SE2-ANL is a developed piece of software from the 1980s while DASSH is a modern implementation with notable improvements in geometry handling. The most important upgrade of DASSH relative to SE2-ANL is that it can analyze multiple time points in a single run where SE2-ANL can only treat a single time point. This allows the user to understand the impact of and search the flow distribution for the entire operational period of a reactor design considering pressure drop, peak coolant and fuel temperatures, and thermal striping. DASSH has three input paths that have to be verified. The first input path builds the geometry and power distribution based upon the DIF3D model but ignores the gamma heating aspects of the problem. The second input path also builds the geometry from the DIF3D model but it takes the neutron and gamma heating distributions from GAMSOR. The third input path is to take the geometry and power distribution directly from user input (i.e. not coupled to DIF3D or GAMSOR). DASSH also has many built in correlations for material properties along with a user defined specification of the fuel, structure, and coolant properties. There are correlations for flow split, mixing, pressure drop, and heat transfer coefficients (subchannel rather than a direct methodology). In total, verification of DASSH will require an extensive testing to cover all possible user features of the software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS