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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗

SPARC - Plans for a New Critical Experiment Facility with a Horizontal Split Table

Several critical experiment facilities, sometimes referred to as zero power reactor facilities, have provided crucial data to aid understanding and validate nuclear-physics models since the beginning of nuclear technology. Indeed, the first man-made reactor, Chicago Pile-1, was essentially this type of reactor. However, there was a downturn in nuclear technology development toward the turn of the millennium, and the need for these specialized research facilities waned. Now there are few of these experimental facilities operational in the world and those that remain have relatively small critical assembly machines. The need for criticality safety benchmark experiments at intermediate neutron energy levels and the modern resurgence of interest in advanced reactors designs, many of which do not have historical precedents in terms of nuclear fuel composition, moderator, and coolant combinations, all combine to create a substantial need for a critical experiment facility with a large horizontal split-table (HST) machine. A HST machine is used to arrange two separate and subcritical parts of a core assembly, bring them together in a precise manner to achieve criticality using remote controls, and separate them to achieve a subcritical configuration again. A new effort was recently performed to develop user needs for a HST, assess candidate locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and develop a plan for deployment. This project is referred to as the System Physics Advanced Reactor Critical facility (SPARC). A few months after this assessment began, and shortly after as a viable pathway was emerging, a series of important presidential executive orders were issued to revitalize nuclear energy in the United States (U.S.). The relevance of SPARC to these executive orders was immediately apparent. The far-reaching potential of SPARC to these executive orders will reside in its ability to produce data which facilitates licensing of advanced nuclear reactor designs while reducing uncertainties to help increase energy production alongside new criticality safety data to enable more efficient nuclear fuel manufacture, transport, and storage.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Manufacturing of Cathode Materials for Lithium-ion Batteries

Original objectives (per the Statement of Project Objectives) centered on developing and translating a continuous pilot process for cathode materials production while targeting (i) a 29% manufacturing cost reduction, (ii) an 82% energy consumption reduction for cathode production, and (iii) a doubling of manufacturing productivity. Planned validation included characterization at appropriate analytical facilities and electrochemical performance evaluation progressing from half-cells to pouch-cell formats, with a pathway to kilogram-scale production of finished cathode materials for representative testing. Scope evolution: During execution, the project team identified that the surfactant-enabled chemistry offered high selectivity for lithium precipitation from brine sources. A formal scope revision shifted the final project year from cathode manufacturing development to direct lithium extraction/lithium recovery, while maintaining the overarching intent of cost reduction and process simplification relevant to the battery supply chain.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Weapon Material Program: FY24 Annual Report

The Weapon Material Program (WMP) framework was started in July of Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, along with other Mission Support organizations. The first year was about building the organization with the right people, identifying needs, and developing a vision for expectations. It was also a year to move forward with new equipment and technology for weapon material processes. With numerous improvements, WMP is building world-class systems for production, warehousing, and analytical testing. FY 2023 was a year of development. The WMP was a new organization defining its identity, its focus, and its mission. At the end of FY 2023, WMP evaluated its current position and its immediate needs along with its future goals. The entire organization set out on this FY 2024 journey to success. The lack of funding, staffing, and visibility dramatically impacted weapon material operations, testing, and qualifications. This neglect required numerous areas to be addressed and improvement plans to be developed and implemented. WMP processes, procedures, and overall business operations were dramatically in need of updating, revision, and formal documentation. This included all areas: technology, equipment, facility modifications/upgrades, and testing improvements. To ensure organizational improvement and forward momentum in FY 2024, WMP executed a multi-faceted strategic vision. Action items included the following: • Filling open positions with capable personnel who would contribute to a more robust organization • Establishing more formal operations and problem-solving techniques • Improving departmental procedures to align with expanding scope • Improving training • Establishing collaboration meetings with other departments/organizations • Focusing on the importance of identifying and mitigating concerns with At-Risk Materials (@RM) • Leading modernization eff orts for Blending and Packaging (B&P) We are on the verge of a transformational improvement in all of our processes in support of the mission. The following area achievements outlined in this report reflect the hard work toward achieving the goal of “being the material Subject Matter Experts in the nuclear enterprise”.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Dataset of Generative AI Workload Power Profiles

This dataset provides a collection of high-resolution (5/10 Hz or every 0.2/0.1 seconds) power consumption profiles for generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) workloads executed on NLR's High Performance Computing (HPC) platform Kestrel. The dataset also includes examples of representative whole-facility power profiles generated using a bottom-up, event-driven, data center energy model . This dataset is designed to support research in energy modeling, infrastructure planning, energy system integration, and sustainability analysis for AI-driven computing systems. The dataset captures time-resolved electrical power measurements across a diverse set of configurations, including variations in job type (inference vs. training), workload (LLM vs. image generation), datasets, and number of compute nodes. Power traces are provided in a standardized format and include both raw/instantaneous and aggregated files. Each profile is accompanied by metadata describing workload parameters, enabling reproducibility and cross-study comparison. The dataset is intended for use in applications such as data center infrastructure planning, energy modeling, demand response and grid impact studies, and development and validation of system-level simulation tools. By making these workload-specific power profiles publicly available, this dataset aims to address the current lack of open, empirical energy data for generative AI systems and to facilitate transparent, reproducible research on the energy and environmental impacts of large-scale AI deployment. If you use this dataset, please cite the associated publication: Vercellino et al., “Measurement of Generative AI Workload Power Profiles for Whole-Facility Data Center Infrastructure Planning,” arXiv:2604.07345 (2026).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient continuous Energy-Multigroup hybrid depletion scheme using the Shift Monte Carlo code. Part I: Energy condensation sensitivity analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) codes coupled to depletion solvers are increasingly used to provide high fidelity fuel cycle modeling capabilities. Here, these coupled depletion-MC tools produce accurate results in general but can experience nonphysical spatial oscillations when time steps are large or when a system’s dominance ratio approaches unity. Two substepping techniques have been developed previously to remedy and dampen these spatial oscillations without needing to reduce step sizes. The first approach relied on higher-order techniques to account for spectral changes within steps (extrapolation and interpolation techniques). The second approach used the first order perturbation (FOP) theory to account for the change in the one-group spatial flux distribution within steps. This paper develops a hybrid depletion methodology which, in a way, combines how the flux is handled in both substepping techniques. Specifically, the multigroup (MG) MC Shift code is used to update the flux distribution within steps rather than a one-group FOP solver. A fully reflected pincell is investigated, which is not spatially dependent in the MG representation. Thus, the analysis in this paper is an initial demonstration of hybrid depletion. An upcoming companion paper will focus on how the hybrid depletion dampens spatial oscillations. The hybrid depletion approach is verified to be consistent with previous constant extrapolation depletion (CED) methods. This paper finds that the hybrid CED exhibits some error in the eigenvalue and one group constants within macro steps. To address this discrepancy, a simple interpolation scheme (CELI) is investigated. This work found that CELI sufficiently addresses the discrepancy in spectrum for macro steps up to 100 days. Overall, this work demonstrates that the hybrid depletion method can significantly reduce the number of high fidelity MC executions in a MC-coupled depletion with an acceptable eigenvalue error.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fundamental Path Optimization Strategies for Extrusion-based Additive Manufacturing

Extrusion-based additive manufacturing processes begin with a software program, called a slicer, that generates layer geometry and fits toolpaths to each layer to define where material is to be extruded or deposited. Before the toolpaths are output as g-code for the additive manufacturing system to execute, the toolpaths should be optimized. Many complex optimization approaches using graph theory, Chinese postman problem, and other complex mathematical models exist, but these approaches are rarely used in daily printing operations and are not available through common slicing programs such as Cura and PrusaSlicer. Instead, path planning and optimization typically revolves around simpler, fully automated approaches such as inside out and next closest. This paper will explore the fundamental optimization strategies for toolpath planning and document a new implementation, available via open-source slicing software, that allows for greater control of the path planning process.

Roschli, Alex [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000213084632)↗

Update on Parallel Process Execution in the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM)

As of the end of 2022, it is estimated that over 90,000 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) were stored at various commercial nuclear power reactor sites (both operating and shutdown) across the United States [1]. The Office of Storage and Transportation within the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of SNF and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). To aid in this effort and inform decision-makers about the backend of the spent fuel cycle, systems analysis tools capable of analyzing the various options with respect to SNF and HLW management are being used as well as continuously improved to meet the evolving needs of the program. System analysts typically use these tools to vary underlying assumptions (shipping rates, available facilities, start dates, interim storage capacity, etc.) and study the associated system implications such as timing for clearing sites of SNF, various cost elements, transportation infrastructure acquisition needs, etc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Carbon Capture from ArcelorMittal Hot Briquetted Iron Plant Using Air Liquide Cryocap™ FG Technology – FEED Study

The process of steel production is energy and carbon intensive with global average energy consumption of 5.5 MWh/tonne of steel and CO2 emission intensity of 1.83 tonne CO2/tonne of steel. The steel making process has inherent CO2 emissions from mineral conversion and is considered major contributors to the global carbon emissions. The steel industry is responsible for 8% of global carbon emissions. The main objective of this research project is to execute and complete a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study for a commercial-scale, carbon capture project that separates 95% of the total CO2 emissions at the ArcelorMittal’s Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) plant in Portland, TX (Figure 1). The HBI is an ore-based metallic that is used as high-grade feedstock for high-quality steel via an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) route. The HBI plant produces 2.0 million metric tonnes of high-quality HBI and emits approximately 1 million tonnes CO2/yr. The capture system is a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) system assisted Cryocap™ FG technology (Figure 2). The captured CO2 will be pipeline grade and will be geologically stored in a facility within 10 miles of the CO2 source. The Host Site location in Corpus Christi, TX, is near hydrocarbon processing facilities and near Environmental Justice (EJ) and Qualified Opportunity Zone (QOZ) communities. Due to the location of the Host Site, the retrofit project offers the ability to demonstrate how a workforce focused on the fossil energy sector can be redirected to the clean- energy sector. The Air Liquide Cryocap™ capture technology is a proven technology and has been extensively examined for large industrial applications. It has been shown to be applicable to a variety of industrial applications including the steel industry. Cryocap™ FG (specific setup for Flue Gas application) consists of a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) unit coupled with a Cryogenic System. The PSA pre-concentrates the CO2 from the flue gas, while the cryogenic unit enables the CO2 purity to be increased to the desired level. The scope of this study incorporates completing FEED study of the CO2 capture system which includes point-source CO2 capture and balance-of-plant; Business Case Analysis (BCA) outlining the current and projected volumes of the steel plant’s point sources of CO2 and the potential utilization of tax credits, including its projected revenue and duration; Life Cycle Analysis (LCA); Environmental Justice Analysis; Economic Revitalization and Job Creation Outcomes Analysis; and Workforce Readiness Plan. The plant design work was divided into two components: Inside Battery Limits (ISBL) and Outside Battery Limits (OSBL). The ISBL focuses on the capture system, while the OSBL focuses on the utility feeds and ducting from the plant to the capture system. Various design and engineering deliverables will be developed to define commodity quantities, equipment specifications, and labour effort required to execute the project. These FEED study deliverables will be prepared with the intent to develop an overall project capital cost estimate consistent with an AACE Class 3 estimate. The modular approach for the Cryocap™ FG that is being designed for this study integrates compression, PSA, and cryogenic “bricks” to achieve the desired CO2 capture rates. This carbon capture system integrates easily with the existing plant, thus reducing project costs and risks. It is also capable of managing impurities such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), mercury, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. The capture system has a smaller footprint than amine-based systems. The two-step process uses PSA to preconcentrate the CO2 in the feedstream and then uses the cryogenic portion to purify and compress the resulting high purity CO2 product. This combination of purification and compression (i.e., process intensification) significantly reduces the CAPEX associated with use of a separate compressor commonly utilized for amine solvent-based systems. Successful completion of the FEED study will provide DOE with a detailed understanding of the costs for scaling up this proven capture technology for commercial applications at industrial facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

New Community Center Integrated Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs) and Solar Photovoltaic Generation System in the Forest County Potawatomi Community

The Forest County Potawatomi Community (“FCPC” or “the Tribe”), is a federally recognized Indian Tribe located in Wisconsin. With the support of the United States Department of Energy, Office of Indian Energy (DOE IE) grant funding, the Tribe implemented their New Community Center Integrated EEMs and Solar Photovoltaic System in the Forest County Potawatomi Community project (the “Project”). The Project was developed and executed with the goal of partially energizing the Community Center while concurrently pursuing Tribal energy sovereignty through cost effective energy efficiency and generation measure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ChemGraph as an agentic framework for computational chemistry workflows

Atomistic simulations are essential in chemistry and materials science but remain challenging to run due to the expert knowledge required for the setup, execution, and validation stages of these calculations. We present ChemGraph, an agentic framework powered by artificial intelligence and state-of-the-art simulation tools to streamline and automate computational chemistry and materials science workflows. ChemGraph leverages graph neural network-based foundation models for accurate yet computationally efficient calculations and large language models (LLMs) for natural language understanding, task planning, and scientific reasoning to provide an intuitive and interactive interface. We evaluate ChemGraph across 13 benchmark tasks and demonstrate that smaller LLMs (GPT-4o-mini, Claude-3.5-haiku, Qwen-2.5-14B) perform well on simple workflows, while more complex tasks benefit from using larger models. Importantly, we show that decomposing complex tasks into smaller subtasks through a multi-agent framework enables GPT-4o to reach perfect accuracy and smaller LLMs to match or exceed single-agent GPT-4o's performance in these benchmarks.

Computational chemistry↗

Alaska Liquid Natural Gas Pipeline Front-End Engineering & Design (Final Technical Report)

The Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) is Alaska’s natural gas infrastructure development corporation established in 2013. AGDC’s mission is to maximize the benefit of Alaska’s vast North Slope natural gas resources for Alaskans through the development of infrastructure necessary to move the gas into local and international markets. AGDC was identified for a Congressionally Directed Spending (CDS) project for funding in the Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2023 under the heading: “Congressionally Directed Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Projects.” The CDS included $\$$4,000,000 of direct funding, with required match funds, to move the project forward. Alaska’s North Slope holds America’s largest proven and conventional natural gas supply. The integrated Alaska LNG Project will deliver 3.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from Alaska’s North Slope gas fields to Alaskans as well as to a marine terminal located at tidewater in Cook Inlet. Alaska LNG is an integrated gas infrastructure project with three major components: a gas treatment plant (GTP) located at Prudhoe Bay, an 807-mile (1,287 km) gas pipeline (Mainline Pipeline) to Southcentral Alaska with interconnections for in-state gas use, and a natural gas liquefaction facility (LNG Facility) in Nikiski, Alaska. The integrated Alaska LNG Project has several strategic advantages including proven gas resources, existing upstream infrastructure, an advantageous arctic climate for LNG production, proximity to LNG markets, a track record of reliability from a state that first began exporting LNG to Japan in 1969, and broad support from Alaskans. North Slope natural gas is a conventional resource and can be produced with minimal drilling at a fraction of the carbon dioxide emissions of shale gas from the Lower 48 states. Through the development of the Alaska LNG Project, Alaska can provide energy security to Alaskans and a stable source of LNG to the Asia-Pacific region for generations. The Alaska LNG Project has been progressed through Pre-Front-End Engineering Design (Pre-FEED) and has obtained all major federal and State of Alaska permits and authorizations to construct the project, including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order Granting Authorization Under Section 3 of the Natural Gas Act. On September 5, 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) awarded Project No. DE-FE0032307 to AGDC with the objective to progress the project to Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) entry for the Alaska LNG Project Phase 1 Pipeline. The award Start Date was made effective July 1, 2023, with a Period of Performance through June 30, 2025. On March 27, 2025, AGDC announced the execution of definitive commercial agreements with Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC, an affiliate of Glenfarne Group, LLC, (together as “Glenfarne”), to lead the development of the Alaska LNG Project and enter FEED for the Phase 1 Pipeline. Project activities are now funded and directed by this private sector partner who holds a 75% interest in 8 Star Alaska, LLC (8 Star). 8 Star holds the assets of the Alaska LNG Project. As planned, AGDC continues to hold 25% minority interest in 8 Star and will play a governance role moving forward with Alaska LNG. This definitive commercial agreement milestone led to the successful completion of AGDC’s Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO) for FEED entry and led to the completion of DOE Project No. DE-FE0032307. At conclusion of the SOPO, AGDC also reached the award’s maximum federal cost share of $\$$4,000,000. AGDC is, therefore, providing Final Technical Report to close out DOE Project No. DE-FE0032307.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Distributed Machine Learning Workflow with PanDA and iDDS in LHC ATLAS

Machine Learning (ML) has become one of the important tools for High Energy Physics analysis. As the size of the dataset increases at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and at the same time the search spaces become bigger and bigger in order to exploit the physics potentials, more and more computing resources are required for processing these ML tasks. In addition, complex advanced ML workflows are developed in which one task may depend on the results of previous tasks. How to make use of vast distributed CPUs/GPUs in WLCG for these big complex ML tasks has become a popular research area. In this paper, we present our efforts enabling the execution of distributed ML workflows on the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system and intelligent Data Delivery Service (iDDS). First, we describe how PanDA and iDDS deal with large-scale ML workflows, including the implementation to process workloads on diverse and geographically distributed computing resources. Next, we report real-world use cases, such as HyperParameter Optimization, Monte Carlo Toy confidence limits calculation, and Active Learning. Finally, we conclude with future plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unified differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or produce insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate a unified start-to-end differentiable digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes, the development of generic interfaces between device models and surrogate or physics-based sections, and the export of the parameters through either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to support larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

End-to-end differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using controllable-fidelity simulations that have fast execution time or can yield additional insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate an end-to-end digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation, the development of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections, and presenting the control interface as either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to implement larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SNoGloDe: A Structured Nonlinear Global Decomposition Solver

Large-scale optimization problems often require decomposition strategies and customized algorithms to achieve optimal solutions within a reasonable time. Building on the work of Cao and Zavala (2019) for solving nonlinear two-stage stochastic programs to global optimality, we implement and extend their approach. We generalize to optimization problems reformulated with a block-angular constraint structure (e.g., temporal decomposition). Our framework, written in Python using Pyomo, is highly customizable and enables parallel execution of the decomposition. SNoGloDe allows tailored branching strategies, lower bounding problems, and candidate generators to leverage problem-specific knowledge. To demonstrate effectiveness, we compare SNoGloDe’s performance with Gurobi on a temporally decomposed produced water case study.

algorithms↗