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Transformers and Long Short-Term Memory Transfer Learning for GenIV Reactor Temperature Time Series Forecasting

Automated monitoring of the coolant temperature can enable autonomous operation of generation IV reactors (GenIV), thus reducing their operating and maintenance costs. Automation can be accomplished with machine learning (ML) models trained on historical sensor data. However, the performance of ML usually depends on the availability of large amount of training data, which is difficult to obtain for GenIV, as this technology is still under development. We propose the use of transfer learning (TL), which involves utilizing knowledge across different domains, to compensate for this lack of training data. TL can be used to create pre-trained ML models with data from small-scale research facilities, which can then be fine-tuned to monitor GenIV reactors. In this work, we develop pre-trained Transformer and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks by training them on temperature measurements from thermal hydraulic flow loops operating with water and Galinstan fluids at room temperature at Argonne National Laboratory. The pre-trained models are then fine-tuned and re-trained with minimal additional data to perform predictions of the time series of high temperature measurements obtained from the Engineering Test Unit (ETU) at Kairos Power. The performance of the LSTM and Transformer networks is investigated by varying the size of the lookback window and forecast horizon. The results of this study show that LSTM networks have lower prediction errors than Transformers, but LSTM errors increase more rapidly with increasing lookback window size and forecast horizon compared to the Transformer errors.

LSTM↗

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic treatment of the hot dark matter cosmological scenario

The study computes the evolution of the hot dark matter (HDM) model containing both baryonic matter and dark matter for a post recombination Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe. A locally valid Newtonian approximation is used to model a representative piece of the universe with size much less than the horizon. For the HDM model with the present chosen normalization, the hard X-ray (1-10 keV) radiation intensity is less than that in the observations (Wu et al., 1991) by a factor of 30. In agreement with other work, it is found that baryonic matter is slightly antibiased over dark matter on the cell scale, 0.5/h Mpc = 667 kpc. The HDM model with the present chosen parameters does not overproduce X-ray-luminous clusters, and there is a negative evolution in the late epochs in the sense that the number density of X-ray clusters was higher at 0.5 redshift than at 0 redshift at the brightest end.

Cen, Renyue↗

Spacecraft attitude sensor

A system for sensing the attitude of a spacecraft includes a pair of optical scanners having a relatively narrow field of view rotating about the spacecraft x-y plane. The spacecraft rotates about its z axis at a relatively high angular velocity while one scanner rotates at low velocity, whereby a panoramic sweep of the entire celestial sphere is derived from the scanner. In the alternative, the scanner rotates at a relatively high angular velocity about the x-y plane while the spacecraft rotates at an extremely low rate or at zero angular velocity relative to its z axis to provide a rotating horizon scan. The positions of the scanners about the x-y plane are read out to assist in a determination of attitude. While the satellite is spinning at a relatively high angular velocity, the angular positions of the bodies detected by the scanners are determined relative to the sun by providing a sun detector having a field of view different from the scanners.

Davidson, A. C.↗

Analysis of remotely sensed data for detecting soil limitations

During 1971 and 1972 a detailed study was conducted on a fallow field in the proposed Oahe Irrigation Project to determine the relationship between the tonal variation observed on aerial photographs and the properties of eroded soil. Correlation and regression analysis of digitized, multiemulsion, color infrared film (2443) data and detailed field data revealed a highly significant correlation between film transmittance and several soil properties indicative of the erosion limitation. Computer classification of the multiemulsion film data resulted in maps portraying the eroded soil and the normal soil. Both correlation and computer classification results were best using the reflectance data from the red spectral band. The results showed film transmittance was actually measuring the reflectivity of the soil surface which was increased by the incorporation of the light colored, calcareous parent material exposed by erosion or tillage on soils with thin surface horizons.

Benson, L. A.↗

Seismic monitoring of CO 2 geosequestration using multi-well 4D DAS VSP: Stage 3 of the CO2CRC Otway project

An important part of any CO 2 geosequestration project is to ensure CO 2 containment and conformance in the subsurface. This is generally done by implementing a comprehensive, risk-based Measurement, Monitoring and Verification plan, a key element of which is active time-lapse seismic monitoring. However, high cost and environmental impact of the standard surface seismic monitoring dictate the need for a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative. An opportunity to develop such method emerges with advances in distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology, which turns an optical fibre into a seismic sensor with dense spatial sampling. DAS can be permanently deployed in multiple wells across the geosequestration site providing a robust and non-intrusive network of seismic receivers. This approach was developed and tested in the CO2CRC Otway project, where injection of 15 kt of CO 2 at 1.5 km depth was monitored with a 4D vertical seismic profiling (VSP) using five borehole DAS arrays and mobile vibroseis sources. The 4D DAS VSP in each of the five wells provides broadly consistent images of the CO 2 plume with some differences due to different illumination of the target horizon, lateral variation of velocities, and seismic anisotropy. When the newly injected CO 2 reaches a CO 2 plume created as a result of an earlier injection into the same formation ~600 m updip, 4D DAS VSP shows a change in reflectivity in that area and beyond. Furthermore, this shows a potential of 4D DAS VSP for monitoring gas injection into gas-saturated reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA DEVELOP Students Rev Up Response to Gulf Oil Spill

After the April 20th explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico, the world witnessed one of the worst oil spill catastrophes in global history. In an effort to mitigate the disaster, the U.S. government moved quickly to establish a unified command for responding to the spill. Some of the command's most immediate needs were to track the movement of the surface oil slick, establish a baseline measurement of pre-oil coastal ecosystem conditions, and assess potential air quality and water hazards related to the spill. To help address these needs and assist the Federal response to the disaster, NASA deployed several of its airborne and satellite research sensors to collect an unprecedented amount of remotely-sensed data over the Gulf of Mexico region. Although some of these data were shared with the public via the media, much of the NASA data on the disaster was not well known to the Gulf Coast community. The need existed to inform the general public about these datasets and help improve understanding about how NASA's science research was contributing to oil spill response and recovery. With its extensive experience conducting community-oriented remote sensing projects and close ties to organizations around Gulf of Mexico, the NASA DEVELOP National Program stood in a unique position to meet this need.

Jones, Jason B.↗

The gravity reference response, the rotation sensation, and other illusory sensations experienced in aircraft and space flight

An analysis of the gravitational and inertial forces which act during aircraft flight upon the vestibular systems of the aircraft occupants reveals that in the absence of a visual horizon, certain illusory sensations are predictable for various acceleration environments. The 'inversion illusion' (Graybiel and Kellog, 1966) felt by some human subjects at 0 g seems to be different from the rotation sensation and could be caused by the diminished pressure forces of the otoliths on the maculae. The 'inversion illusion' of man correlates well with the blind fish diving behavior observed during aircraft parabolic flight (von Baumgarten et al., 1969, 1972). It is suggested that the fish low g diving response and the human inversion illusion are due to the substitution of a predominantly shearing force of low magnitude as a vestibular reference in place of a normal, predominantly pressure force. This hypothesis indicates that vestibular senses alone cannot provide meaningful postural orientation to simulated or actual gravity of a magnitude below that of earth's gravity.

Shillinger, G. L., Jr.↗

The MSP 2001 Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA)

A chemical analysis of soil-water mixtures and the first microscopic images of martian soil will be among the results to be returned by the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) payload on the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Lander. Sponsored by the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise, MECA's primary goal is to evaluate potential geochemical and environmental hazards that may confront future martian explorers, and to guide HEDS scientists in the development of high fidelity Mars soil simulants. As a survey of soil properties, the MECA data set will also be rich in information relevant to basic geology, paleoclimate, and exobiology. The integrated MECA payload contains a wet-chemistry laboratory, a microscopy station, an electrometer to characterize the electrostatics of the soil and its environment, and arrays of material patches to study the abrasive and adhesive properties of soil grains. MECA is allocated a mass of 10 kg and a peak power usage of 15 W within an enclosure of 35 x 25 x 15 cm. The Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) consists of four identical cells that will accept samples from surface and subsurface regions accessible to the Lander's robotic arm, mix them with water, and perform extensive analysis of the solution. Ion-selective electrodes and related sensors will evaluate total dissolved solids, redox potential, pH, and the concentration of many soluble ions and gases. Cyclic voltammetry will address oxidants, and anodic stripping voltammetry will probe potentially hazardous trace metals. MECA's microscopy station combines optical and atomic-force microscopy (AFM) in a controlled illumination environment to image dust and soil particles from millimeters to nanometers in size. Careful selection of substrates and an abrasion tool allows experimental study of size distribution, adhesion, abrasion, hardness, color, shape, aggregation, magnetic and other properties. Mounted on the end of the robot arm, MECA's electrometer consists of four types of sensors: an electric field meter, several triboelectricity monitors, an ion gauge, and a thermometer. Tempered only by ultra-violet- light-induced ions and a low-voltage break-down threshold, the dry, cold, dusty martian environment presents an imposing electrostatic hazard to both robots and humans. In addition, the electrostatic environment is key to transport of dust and, consequently, martian meteorology. MECA will also observe natural dust accumulation on engineering materials. Viewed with the robot arm camera, the abrasion and adhesion plates are strategically placed to allow direct observation of the inter-action between materials and soils on a macroscopic scale. Materials of graded hardness are placed directly under the robot arm scoop to sense wear and soil hardness. A second array, placed on the lander deck, is deployed after the dust plume of landing has settled. It can be manipulated in a primitive fashion by the arm, first having dirt deposited on it from the scoop and subsequently shaken clean. Dust accumulation as a function of conductivity, magnetic field strength, and other parameters will be explored. The MECA instruments described above will assess potential hazards that the Martian soil might present to human explorers and their equipment. In addition, MECA will provide information on the composition of ancient surface water environments, observing microscopic evidence of geological (and biological?) processes, inferring soil and dust transport, comminution and weathering mechanisms, and characterizing soil horizons that might be encountered during excavation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Hecht, M. H.↗

Development and Implementation of Real-Time Information Delivery Systems for Emergency Management

The disaster management community has an on-going need for real-time data and information, especially during catastrophic events. Currently, twin engine or jet aircraft with limited altitude and duration capabilities collect much of the data. Flight safety is also an issue. Clearly, much of the needed data could be delivered via over-the-horizon transfer through a uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAV) platform to mission managers at various locations on the ground. In fact, because of the ability to stay aloft for long periods of time, and to fly above dangerous situations, UAV's are ideally suited for disaster missions. There are numerous situations that can be considered disastrous for the human population. Some, such as fire or flood, can continue over a period of days. Disaster management officials rely on data from the site to respond in an optimum way with warnings, evacuations, rescue, relief, and to the extent possible, damage control. Although different types of disasters call for different types of response, most situations can be improved by having visual images and other remotely sensed data available. "Disaster Management" is actually made up of a number of activities, including: - Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - Emergency Response Planning - Disaster Management (real-time deployment of resources, during an event) - Disaster / Risk Modeling All of these activities could benefit from real-time information, but a major focus for UAV-based technology is in real-time deployment of resources (i.e., emergency response teams), based on changing conditions at the location of the event. With all these potential benefits, it is desirable to demonstrate to user agencies the ability to perform disaster management missions as described. The following demonstration project is the first in a program designed to prove the feasibility of supporting disaster missions with UAV technology and suitable communications packages on-board. A several-year program is envisioned, in which a broad range of disaster-related activities are demonstrated to the appropriate user communities.

Wegener, Steve↗

Strategic Deconfliction Performance: Results and Analysis from the NASA UTM Technical Capability Level 4 Demonstration

Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) refers to the service-based, cooperative approach to the management of small UAS in the National Airspace System that is safe, scalable, and fair. UTM provides the means to manage the airspace in a complementary manner that does not burden the current air traffic control workforce or infrastructure but allows the Air Navigation Service Provider to maintain its regulatory and operational authority of the airspace. A key feature of UTM is the ability to provide operators the means to strategically deconflict operations from others in the airspace through the digital exchange of information via supporting services. Through this approach, the four-dimensional operation volumes that encompass the intent of operators in a given area are discoverable and can be used for airspace awareness as well as planning conflict free operations that account for and avoid other operations. In certain cases, it is also possible to negotiate volume intersections for shared airspace use without the need to re-plan. In the NASA UTM concept, strategic deconfliction is the first layer of three in the overall conflict management model. The three layers of the conflict management model, which follow the International Civil Aviation Organization’s scheme [ICAO 2005] are: strategic conflict management, separate provision, and collision avoidance. In UTM, the strategic layer mostly occurs prior to departure, but is applicable to en route operations with sufficient planning horizon. The initial requirements for a strategic deconfliction capability within UTM are defined in a NASA publication [Rios 2018]. Within the concept and implementation of service-provided strategic deconfliction is the notion of priority. It is understood that there are instances in which an operation requires a priority designation within the UTM system and special handling accordingly to provide situation awareness and facilitate appropriate responses from other airspace users. Examples of situations requiring priority designation include: when an operator declares an emergency due to problems with the vehicle or its immediate surroundings; operations that are in support of certain organizations (e.g., public safety and first responders); or special missions that also require priority use of airspace (e.g., emergency medical deliveries). UAS Volume Reservations (UVRs) also relate to the topic of priority in the sense that the airspace that the volume encompasses has a different status or classification in which unassociated operations must vacate if inside, or avoid if outside, through strategic deconfliction with the volume. Operations that are specially permitted to access the UVR area are typically assigned priority status given the nature of their mission and their associated credentials. The ability to perform strategic deconfliction, handle certain operations with a priority distinction, and establish UVRs that are communicated throughout the UTM system, is predicated on an architecture that has been established through an evolutionary process in response to close collaboration with stakeholders from government and industry. Another important and influential aspect of these capabilities and architecture is the live, distributed flight tests that have been conducted across the Technical Capability Levels (TCLs) that culminated with a set of complex tests performed as part of TCL4 [Rios 2020]. The TCL4 flight test involved two FAA-designated UAS test sites building teams to collaborate with NASA’s UTM Project on the execution of several detailed, small UAS scenarios in urban environments.

conflict management↗

Change Detection Applications in the Earth Sciences Using UAS-Based Sensing: A Review and Future Opportunities

Over the past decade, advancements in collection platforms such as unoccupied aerial systems (UAS), survey-grade GNSS, sensor packages, processing software, and spatial analytical tools have facilitated change detection analyses at an unprecedented resolution over broader spatial and temporal extents and in environments where such investigations present challenges. These technological improvements, coupled with the accessibility and versatility of UAS technology, have pushed the boundaries of spatial and temporal scales in geomorphic change detection. As a result, the cm-scale analysis of topographic signatures can detect and quantify surface anomalies during geomorphic evolution. This review focuses on the use of UAS photogrammetry for fine spatial (cm) and temporal (hours to days) scale geomorphic analyses, and it highlights analytical approaches to detect and quantify surface processes that were previously elusive. The review provides insight into topographic change characterization with precise spatial validations applied to landscape processes in various fields, such as the cryosphere and geosphere, as well as anthropogenic earth processes and national security applications. This work sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of both natural and human-engineered environments, demonstrating the potential of UAS observations in change detection. Our discussion examines the emerging horizons of UAS-based change detection, including machine learning and LIDAR systems. In addition, our meta-analysis of spatial and temporal UAS-based observations highlights the new fine-scale niche of UAS-photogrammetry. This scale advancement sets a new frontier in change detection, offering exciting possibilities for the future of land surface analysis and environmental monitoring in the field of Earth Science.

Andresen, Christian G.↗

The MSP 2001 Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA)

The Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) will evaluate the Martian environment for soil and dust-related hazards to human exploration as part of the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Lander. Sponsored by the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise, MECA's goal is to evaluate potential geochemical and environmental hazards that may confront future Martian explorers, and to guide HEDS scientists in the development of high fidelity Mars soil simulants. The integrated MECA payload contains a wet-chemistry laboratory, a microscopy station, an electrometer to characterize the electrostatics of the soil and its environment, and arrays of material patches to study the abrasive and adhesive properties of soil grains. The instrument will acquire soil samples with a robotic arm equipped with a camera. MECA will examine surface and subsurface soil and dust in order to characterize particle size, shape, hardness, and also physical characteristics that may provide clues to mineralogy. MECA will characterize soil/water mixtures with respect to pH, redox potential, total dissolved ions, and trace toxins. MECA will determine the nature of electrostatic charging associated with excavation of soil, and the influence of ionizing radiation on material properties. It will also observe natural dust accumulation on engineering materials. To accomplish these objectives, MECA is allocated a mass of 10 kg within an enclosure of 35 x 25 x 15 cm. The Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) consists of four identical cells that will accept samples from surface and subsurface regions accessible to the Lander's robotic arm, mix them with water, and perform extensive analysis of the solution. Ion-selective electrodes and related sensors will evaluate total dissolved solids, redox potential, pH, and the concentration of many soluble ions and gases in wet Martian soil. These electrodes can detect potentially dangerous heavy-metal ions, emitted pathogenic gases, and the soil's corrosive potential. Experiments will include cyclic voltammetry and anodic stripping voltammetry. Complementary to the Viking experiments, the chemical laboratory will characterize the water-soil solution rather than emitted gases. Nonetheless, through analysis of dissolved gases it will be able to replicate many of the Viking observations related to oxidants. MECA's microscopy station combines optical and atomic-force microscopy (AFM) in an actively focused, controlled illumination environment to image particles from millimeters to nanometers in size. Careful selection of substrates allows controlled experiments in adhesion, abrasion, hardness, aggregation, magnetic and other properties. Special tools allow primitive manipulation (brushing and scraping) of samples. Soil particle properties including size, shape, color, hardness, adhesive potential (electrostatic and magnetic), will be determined using an array of sample receptacles and collection substrates. The simple, rugged atomic-force microscope will image in the submicron size range and has the capability of performing a particle-by-particle analysis of the dust and soil. On Earth, the earliest forms of life are preserved as microfossils. The atomic-force microscope will have the required resolution to image down to the scale of terrestrial microfossils and beyond. Mounted on the end of the robot arm, MECA's electrometer actually consists of four types of sensors: an electric field meter, several triboelectricity monitors, an ion gauge, and a thermometer. Tempered only by ultraviolet-light-induced ions and a low-voltage breakdown threshold, the dry, cold, dusty martian environment presents an imposing electrostatic hazard to both robots and humans. The field meter will measure the ambient field on nearby objects while the triboelectric sensors, using identical circuitry, will measure the charge accumulated on test substances as they are dragged through the soil by the arm. The ion chamber, open to the environment, will sense both charged dust and free ions in the air. Over and above the potential threat to electronics, the electrostatic environment holds one of the keys to transport of dust and, consequently, Martian meteorology. Viewed with the robot arm camera, the abrasion and adhesion plates are strategically placed to allow direct observation of the interaction between materials and soils on a macroscopic scale. Materials of graded hardness are placed directly under the robot arm scoop to sense wear and soil hardness. A second array, placed on the lander deck, is deployed after the dust plume of landing has settled. It can be manipulated in a primitive fashion by the arm, first having dirt deposited on it from the scoop and subsequently shaken clean. A third array will passively collect dust from the atmosphere. In addition to objectives related to human exploration, the MECA data set will be rich in information relevant to basic geology, paleoclimate, and exobiology issues. To understand both contemporaneous and ancient processes on Mars, the mineralogy, petrology, and reactivity of Martian surface materials should be constrained. The MECA experiment will shed light on these quantities through its combination of chemistry and microscopy. MECA will be capable of measuring the composition of ancient surface water environments, observing microscopic evidence of geological (and biological?) processes, inferring soil and dust transport, comminution and weathering mechanisms, and characterizing soil horizons that might be encountered during excavation.

Hecht, M. H.↗

Multiple Carrier Generation at an Exceptionally Low Energy Threshold

Multiple carrier generation (MCG), a process wherein two or more carriers are generated from a single high-energy absorbed photon, holds immense promise for quantum sensing, metrology, low-threshold lasers, and photovoltaics. Despite its potential, MCG has faced obstacles such as low efficiency and a high threshold photon energy at least twice the band gap (2?Eg) of the semiconductor, limiting its application only to a class of materials with low Eg. Here, we present a new approach that overcomes this limitation by leveraging carrier-donor scattering to excite secondary electrons from donor states strategically positioned below the conduction band. Our method relies on strong Coulomb interaction, reduced dielectric screening, slow hot carrier cooling, and strictly follows the energy conservation rules. We experimentally demonstrated this idea in a model system of monolayer (1L) MoS2 by exploiting electron-donating chalcogen vacancy states. We observed an exceptionally low MCG threshold of ~1.12?Eg for the first time in 1L MoS2. Remarkably, the quantum yield can be further increased to >3 by increasing the photon energy to 1.65?Eg, representing a substantial advancement over existing methods. Our findings extend the horizon of MCG into next-generation high-performance optoelectronic devices with an on-demand operating spectral range spanning from infrared to ultraviolet.

CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS↗

A Overview of New Technologies Driving Innovation in the Airborne Science Community

Following a more than a century of scientific aircraft and ballooning there is a sense that a renaissance of sorts is at hand in the aviation industry. The advent of incredibly miniaturized autopilots, inertial navigation systems, GPS antennae, and payloads has sparked a revolution in manned and unmanned aircraft. Improved SATCOM and onboard computing has enabled realtime data processing and improved transfer of data on and off the aircraft, making flight planning and data collection more efficient and effective. Electric propulsion systems are scaling up to larger and larger vehicles as evidenced by the NASA GL-10, which is leading to a new X-plane and is leading to renewed interest in personal air vehicles. There is also significant private and government investments in the development of High Altitude, Long Endurance (HALE) aircraft. This presentation will explore how such developments are likely to improve our ability to observe earth systems processes from aircraft by providing an overview of current NASA Airborne Science capabilities, followed by a brief discussion of new technologies being applied to Airborne Science missions, and then conclude with an overview of new capabilities on the horizon that are likely to be of interest to the Earth Science community.

airborne science↗

An Overview of New Technologies Driving Innovation in the Airborne Science Community

Following a more than a century of scientific aircraft and ballooning there is a sense that a renaissance of sorts is at hand in the aviation industry. The advent of incredibly miniaturized autopilots, inertial navigation systems, GPS antennae, and payloads has sparked a revolution in manned and unmanned aircraft. Improved SATCOM and onboard computing has enabled realtime data processing and improved transfer of data on and off the aircraft, making flight planning and data collection more efficient and effective. Electric propulsion systems are scaling up to larger and larger vehicles as evidenced by the NASA GL-10, which is leading to a new X-plane and is leading to renewed interest in personal air vehicles. There is also significant private and government investments in the development of High Altitude, Long Endurance (HALE) aircraft. This presentation will explore how such developments are likely to improve our ability to observe earth systems processes from aircraft by providing an overview of current NASA Airborne Science capabilities, followed by a brief discussion of new technologies being applied to Airborne Science missions, and then conclude with an overview of new capabilities on the horizon that are likely to be of interest to the Earth Science community.

airborne science↗

NASA Langley/CNU Distance Learning Programs

NASA Langley Research Center and Christopher Newport University (CNU) provide, free to the public, distance learning programs that focus on math, science, and/or technology over a spectrum of education levels from K-adult. The effort started in 1997, and we currently have a suite of five distance-learning programs. We have around 450,000 registered educators and 12.5 million registered students in 60 countries. Partners and affiliates include the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), the Aerospace Education Coordinating Committee (AECC), the Alliance for Community Media, the National Educational Telecommunications Association, Public Broadcasting System (PBS) affiliates, the NASA Learning Technologies Channel, the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM), the Council of the Great City Schools, Hampton City Public Schools, Sea World Adventure Parks, Busch Gardens, ePALS.com, and Riverdeep. Our mission is based on the "Horizon of Learning," a vision for inspiring learning across a continuum of educational experiences. The programs form a continuum of educational experiences for elementary youth through adult learners. The strategic plan for the programs will evolve to reflect evolving national educational needs, changes within NASA, and emerging system initiatives. Plans for each program component include goals, objectives, learning outcomes, and rely on sound business models. It is well documented that if technology is used properly it can be a powerful partner in education. Our programs employ both advances in information technology and in effective pedagogy to produce a broad range of materials to complement and enhance other educational efforts. Collectively, the goals of the five programs are to increase educational excellence; enhance and enrich the teaching of mathematics, science, and technology; increase scientific and technological literacy; and communicate the results of NASA discovery, exploration, innovation and research. All pre-college distance learning programs support the national mathematics, science, and technology standards; support K-12 systemic change; involve educators in their development, implementation, and evaluation; and are based on alliances and partnerships. In addition the programs seek to invoke a sense of geographic, ethnic and cultural diversity by featuring schools from all over the U.S.; schools from urban, suburban, and rural areas; public, private, and religious schools; and schools with large populations of African-American, Asian and Hispanic students.

Caton, Randall↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗