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DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Advanced Condition Monitoring Techniques

With the shift away from time-based maintenance and toward condition-based maintenance, and to reduce overall maintenance costs, there has been an upsurge in the usage and development of advanced condition monitoring (ACM) techniques for real-time monitoring of nuclear power plant (NPP) components. ACM is particularly useful in the development of digital twins, which are designed to predict the failure or degradation of plant components. Successful implementation of ACM requires an assessment to inform the development of a risk-informed approach to evaluate the use of ACM to meet Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) regulations for in-service testing (IST) programs. This includes the monitoring and diagnostics of reactor components and systems in current, new, and advanced reactors. A key component in ACM is the usage of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that can employ real-time data from instrumentation and sensors to detect and predict reactor component degradations. Such predictive capabilities enable early detection of component degradation so as to help plant personnel plan and execute necessary maintenance. For successful implementation of ML/AI in ACM such that regulatory requirements are met, a risk-informed graded approach is needed to assess the reliability and performance of ML/AI for ACM. The American Society for Mechanical Engineers (ASME) developed their Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Code to provide guidance on safe, reliable O&M of NPPs. The IST section of the O&M Code specifically establishes requirements for IST and examination to gauge operational readiness of components in water-cooled NPPs. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of how reliability and risk assessment can be integrated with ACM to assess component performance by non-nuclear industries. This is followed by different methodologies and approaches for conducting performance and reliability assessments so as to meet IST requirements for NPP components.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

INTEGRATION OF DATA ANALYTICS WITH SYSTEM HEALTH PROGRAMS

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry developed and regulatory programs. However, these programs have proven to be labor intensive and expensive. There is an opportunity to significantly enhance the collection, analysis, and use of this information to provide more cost-effective plant operation. Additionally, there is an acute industry need to leverage advanced technology to reduce costs and improve operational effectiveness. The goal of this paper is to provide effective and efficient analytical methods and tools to support risk-informed decisions for the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. This is accomplished by creating a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). Here we are supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component ageing management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where herein the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow. A challenge is that the structure of this workflow strongly depends on the decision that needs to be made, the type of data available, and the constraints that need to be considered. Current methods are designed to provide specific answers to specific problems; however, these methods might prove to be inadequate even when problem settings slightly change (e.g., different types of requirements, additional dependencies between system reliability and economics). We tackled this challenge by designing framework in a flexible and modular fashion such that the user can assemble and customize his/her own workflow that integrates SSC economic lifecycle models (e.g., maintenance and replacement costs), system reliability models, and optimization methods.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment for Advanced Condition Monitoring Techniques

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning–Based Condition Monitoring of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Plant

With the need to maintain long-term reliable energy using nuclear power plants, there is an underlying demand to ensure that the maintenance of plant components and systems is also done in an efficient and cost-effective manner. One way to achieve this is by moving from time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The research presented in this paper focuses on applying statistical and machine-learning-based methods to capture anomalies within data for fault detection to further develop into condition monitoring. This paper focuses on system data for a circulating water system (CWS) of a pressurized heavy-water reactor for detecting anomalies. The different methodologies used for detecting and capturing anomalies in the CWS data are matrix profile, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), and support vector machines (SVMs). Matrix profile and DBSCAN are used to distinguish between normal data and anomalous data. This paper presents a hybrid method using DBSCAN and SVM when a portion of the data is used for DBSCAN to generate clusters. This portion of data is then used to train the SVM along with the clusters generated by DBSCAN as output. SVM is then tested on unseen data as a predictive tool, which can work in real time to categorize data points as either normal or anomalous. This paper presents results that show the high accuracies of DBSCAN and SVM in capturing anomalies within the data for a CWS for fault detection. Thus, the maintenance plan would be focused on component condition rather than a time-based schedule by switching to an automated system to identify and predict faults within a CWS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

NLR CSP Optical Facilities: Illuminating the Path Forward Through Innovation and Impact: Agreement 38490

This initiative is a multi-faceted project at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) aimed at strengthening its Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Optical Facilities to advance the development of low-cost, high-performance materials for solar and other applications. The project's strategy is built on three pillars: strategic stakeholder engagement, diligent facility maintenance and utilization, and the development of new research capabilities. The overarching goal is to ensure the facilities remain state-of-the-art resources for industry and academia, thereby accelerating the conversion of concentrated sunlight into energy. A key driver of the project is an international Advisory Board, which provides critical guidance on research priorities and industry needs, leading to new collaborations and secured funding. This external engagement, combined with proactive outreach to industry partners, ensures the lab's work remains aligned with real-world challenges, including materials durability and performance certification. Significant efforts in facility maintenance have addressed challenges with aging infrastructure. Notable achievements include the complete refurbishment of the hail-damaged Ultra-Accelerated Weathering System (UAWS) and the successful replacement of a failing 15-year-old Lambda 1050 spectrophotometer with a new-generation model, substantially upgrading material characterization capabilities. These maintenance activities were complemented by achieving a prestigious ISO 9001:2015 certification for the Advanced Optical Materials Labs, formally recognizing the quality and reliability of NLR's measurement capabilities. Despite these successes, challenges remain, including high demand for the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) and intermittent failures of other key instruments. The project has delivered major advancements in research techniques and capabilities. At the Flatirons campus, a new indoor laboratory, was established to house advanced deflectometry and photogrammetry systems for heliostat characterization. For on-sun testing, a novel, actively cooled turning mirror was developed for the HFSF, enabling more realistic testing of particle receivers and components. A collaboration with Virginia Tech successfully demonstrated the high-temperature durability of a new solar absorber coating through extensive cyclic testing. Concurrently, new modeling took place to better predict material degradation on rough, fractal surfaces. In summary, this project has systematically enhanced NLR's CSP Optical Facilities through strategic upgrades, rigorous maintenance, and stakeholder-guided research. By overcoming equipment failures, budgetary constraints, and logistical hurdles, the project has reinforced NLR's role as a central hub for CSP innovation and materials testing. Future work will focus on securing diverse funding, expanding collaborations, and continuing to provide the critical infrastructure needed to accelerate the development and deployment of next-generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

An alternative electrode design for accurate spectral induced polarization measurements in variably saturated porous media

SUMMARY Applications of spectral induced polarization (SIP) require electrodes that maintain hydrologic contact with surrounding soils to capture small electrical responses, often observed as phase shifts in milliradians. For unsaturated soils, electrodes must overcome increased electrical contact impedance due to reduced pore fluid. Traditional designs use a ceramic membrane electrode (CME) with a water reservoir and metal conductor, requiring periodic maintenance to retain electrolytic solution. For field applications where maintenance is impractical, alternative designs are needed. This study evaluated a new electrode design (silica flour electrode, SFE) alongside a CME. SFEs use packed silica flour to store water via capillary forces against a metal conductor. This study examined both designs in three variably saturated soils at soil suctions up to 700 mbar and soil water contents below 1 percent, with SIP measurements across 0.01 to 10 000 Hz frequencies. SFEs match CMEs at high frequencies and perform better at lower frequencies, without requiring ongoing maintenance, making them ideal for field use. In water-only experiments, CMEs produced errors and high noise below 1.5 Hz, whereas SFEs were more accurate. However, CMEs performed better above 300 Hz. In fine sand, SFEs performed better due to the relatively lower contact impedance as compared to CMEs. Both electrode types performed comparably in silty sand and silt loam soils, although CMEs required ongoing maintenance, suggesting potential for long-term reliability issues.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Muckleshoot Indian Tribe-Energy Deployment (MITED) Project

The Muckleshoot Indian Tribe (MIT) collaborated with our Project Partner, GRID Alternatives (GRID), to install 132 kilowatts of direct current (kW-DC) of rooftop solar on three Tribal facilities. The three facilities are the Tribe’s Youth Drop-In Center, Canoe Shed, and Water Treatment Facility. The solar PV systems were originally anticipated to offset approximately 45% of the aggregate annual electricity usage of the three buildings. A major aspect of the MIT-ED project was providing hands-on paid training to five Muckleshoot Building Maintenance workers in solar PV installations, operations, and maintenance. The scope of work aligns with the Tribe’s goals of building local capacity and providing real world work experience and potential career opportunities in solar PV to its citizens. The Building Maintenance Department committed five of its current FTE employees to the project. GRID provided guidance for the MIT project team on identifying paid trainees as well as end goals of skill development through training, including a long-term Operations and Maintenance (O&M) plan tailored to the Tribe’s goals of local capacity building and stewardship of natural resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pavement condition and climatic data in southeast Texas: A dataset for evaluating flood impacts on pavement performance

Effective pavement maintenance is essential for economic stability, optimal network performance, and roadway safety. Achieving this requires thorough evaluation of pavement conditions, including structural integrity, surface roughness, and distress characteristics. Pavement performance indicators play a critical role in influencing vehicle safety and ride quality. Recent advances have emphasized the use of data-driven modeling to anticipate pavement behavior, with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and refining Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) strategies through accurate condition assessment. A foundational requirement for these modeling efforts is the availability of standardized, high-quality datasets that can support robust and reproducible infrastructure analysis. This data article presents a comprehensive dataset assembled to facilitate pavement performance prediction, with a geographic focus on Southeast Texas, particularly the flood-vulnerable area of Beaumont. The dataset encompasses pavement and traffic attributes, meteorological records, flood simulation outputs, ground deformation measurements, and topographic indices, enabling detailed examination of both load-associated and non-load-associated degradation mechanisms. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS Pro, Microsoft Excel, and Python to ensure consistency and usability in data-driven modeling applications, including machine learning workflows. Key contributions of this dataset include its utility in analyzing the climatic and environmental factors affecting pavement conditions, identifying critical predictive features, and enabling in-depth correlation analysis across diverse variables. By filling existing gaps in input variable selection resources, this dataset supports the development of predictive tools for estimating future maintenance demand and enhancing the resilience of pavement networks in flood-impacted areas. The resource highlights the importance of standardized datasets for advancing pavement management practices and provides a robust foundation for ongoing infrastructure performance modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for "Quantifying the Propagation of Parametric Uncertainty on Flux Balance Analysis"

In the repository are example scripts that perform uncertainty injection and propagation to flux balance analysis with outputs for a small sample size (for demonstration purpose only). For proper analysis, user should download the scripts and run for a large sample size (e.g., 10,000 samples). If you use the scripts, please cite the following Metabolic Engineering article: “Quantifying the propagation of parametric uncertainty on flux balance analysis” (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymben.2021.10.012) There are two subdirectories: /uncFBA/uncBiom: injection of normally distributed noise to biomass precursor coeffcients and ATP maintenance (growth-associated ATP maintenance (GAM) and non-growth associated ATP maintenance (NGAM)) /uncFBA/uncRHS: departure from steady-state by adding noise drawn from normal distribution to the RHS terms of mass balance constraints

Metabolomics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Considerations for Introducing Artificial Intelligence into Nuclear Power Plants

Advanced computational tools and techniques such as artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) can transform the nuclear power industry. This is necessary given that the economic viability of the existing fleet is in jeopardy and its labor-centric approach to operations and maintenance. Currently, AI/ML research is being undertaken for reactor system design and analysis including fault and accident prognosis, nuclear risk analysis such as plant safety and security evaluation, and plant operations and maintenance including predictive maintenance. Applications include both existing and advanced reactor technologies with the aim of improving operational and business efficiencies. Most every aspect of the organization can benefit, from instrumentation and control, to work planning, to human-machine interactions and business management. AI/ML in nuclear can simplify complex problems and produce more effective decision-making. Nonetheless, careful consideration must be given to the implementation of an AI/ML initiative. The aims of this research are to 1) review barriers to AI/ML adoption within the nuclear power industry, and 2) suggest potential solutions. These barriers are organized along five distinct categories (Figure 1) that are interconnected. The first are historical barriers that track the industry’s development over the decades including worldwide nuclear events that shaped public perceptions. The resulting federal scrutiny and intense safety culture that emerged are discussed. Technical barriers to AI/ML adoption are considerable, and include data privacy concerns, data governance, and the current lack of AI/ML expert knowledge at the plants. The main business case barrier remains cost, but an absence of an industry-wide vision and wide-scale adoption also produces reluctance. Stakeholder readiness is reviewed with special attention given to regulatory readiness. The 5-year strategic plan for AI readiness recently published by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is highlighted. Last, adoption barriers at the user level are addressed including the importance of user experience and explainable AI. The AI adoption barriers described here are inter-related and ideally should be addressed in a holistic fashion.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital-Twin-Enabling Technologies for Online Condition Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Components

Online condition monitoring is an area of active research that may enable optimized scheduling, maintenance, and safety of nuclear power plant components, reducing unnecessary derates while simultaneously improving operational capacity. Digital twins (DTs) are one avenue to conduct online condition monitoring and are currently being explored by national laboratories and universities alike. DTs for online condition monitoring are, in essence, state concurrent models that emulate a physical process which predicts a parameter and compares it against a measured value. A DT’s goal is to provide additional insights by combining and interpreting various sources of information for preventative maintenance scheduling optimization or early fault detection. DTs for condition monitoring are projected to be valuable for meeting requirements under 10 CFR 50.55a, “Codes and Standards,” and 10 CFR 50.65, “Requirements for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants”. However, DT technologies are still under significant development, and the process for developing a DT for condition monitoring has not been formalized. Therefore, in this work, we present an initial framework for developing a DT, discuss and review the various challenges and considerations for DT deployment, and identify the opportunities that a DT can improve. The presented framework is intended to help developers formulate a strategy when approaching DT development for condition monitoring. In conclusion, a DT use case for a reactor coolant pump is presented to demonstrate the proposed framework.

advanced sensor instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Human and Technology Integration Guidance for Work Optimization and Effective Use of Information

Existing nuclear power contributes to roughly 20% of the total electricity generation, and consistently provides the highest capacity factor of any other electricity generating resource in the United States. Despite these advantages, the existing nuclear power plant fleet in the United States has been enduring significant challenges in providing electricity in a cost-competitive manner, which has ultimately threatened the long-term economic viability of these plants. A major contributor to these increased operating and maintenance costs has been the continued reliance of a large workforce who perform their work under an operating model that has largely remained unchanged since the commissioning of these nuclear power plants. Unfortunately, while this operating model has provided safe and reliable electricity, other industries have already began transforming their workforce through the use of advanced digital technology and automation that has reduced their operating and maintenance cost significantly. In order for the United States nuclear industry to remain economically viable, a similar transformation must be considered in which digital technologies and automation capabilities are brought in to support key plant functions across all work functions across plant operation, maintenance, and support. To effectively integrate digital technology and automation in the existing nuclear power plant operating model, a multidisciplinary approach is needed that addresses technological and sociotechnical (i.e., human and technology integration) considerations. This report describes an extension to the human and technology integration methodology, herein referred to as Human Integration and Technology Task Force for Work Management Optimization (HITT), to support the safe, reliable, and efficient use of proposed innovations with the intended users in their intended environment to perform their intended tasks. By effectively incorporating human and technology integration into a plant modernization effort by using HITT, we believe that a utility can significantly improve work performance and overall workforce quality of life. For instance, if HITT is performed to optimize work management, scheduling performance and scope stability can be improved by up to 10%. HITT enables these benefits through developing a rich understanding of the work being performed, the utility’s vision, and the opportunities that provide greatest value to optimize performance through a 10-step process illustrated below as a quick guide. The quick guide contains links in the righthand side of each step that allows for navigation to the detailed section (Section 4) of HITT in this technical report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

CRADA Number NFE-24-10110 with Qubit Engineering Inc. (CRADA Final Report)

Over the past year, the Qubit Engineering team has pushed the frontiers of power‑grid optimization, working in close collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Their progress is reflected in three newly submitted conference papers, “Unified Relational GNN Architecture for AC Optimal Power Flow Calculations in Electric Grids,” “Graph‑Based Attention Mechanisms for Solving the AC Optimal Power Flow Problem in Electrical‑Power Networks,” and “Enhanced Power‑Grid Maintenance Planning and Quantum‑Inspired Combinatorial Prospects.” These publications showcase state‑of‑the‑art graph‑neural‑network methods for AC‑OPF and novel quantum‑inspired heuristics for maintenance scheduling. Beyond the academic results, the Qubit team has converted the research into two production‑grade tools built on TVA data: Neuro‑Grid, an AI‑driven power‑flow simulator that provides instant, interactive full‑grid load‑flow visualizations, and Quanta‑Grid, a quantum‑inspired maintenance‑scheduling engine to support logistics optimization for power utilities. Together, these advances demonstrate how Qubit’s partnership with ORNL and TVA is delivering practical, physics‑grounded analytics for next‑generation grid management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Fe-Ni Battery/Module for Grid Service Duty Cycles

Iron–nickel (Fe-Ni) batteries are renowned for their durability and resilience against overcharging and operating temperatures. However, they encounter challenges in achieving widespread adoption for energy storage applications due to their low efficiency and the need for regular maintenance and electrolyte replacement, which adds to maintenance costs. This study evaluates and demonstrates the capabilities of Fe-Ni batteries for participating in grid energy storage applications. Stable performance was observed frequency regulation (FR) testing at 100% and 50% state of charge (SOC)s, while at 50% SOC, there was a 14% increase in efficiency compared to 100% SOC. Although 25% SOC achieved higher efficiency, limited cyclability was observed due to reaching the discharge cutoff voltage. Optimal SOC selection, battery monitoring, maintenance, and appropriate charging strategies of Fe-Ni batteries seem to be crucial for their FR applications. Fe-Ni batteries exhibit stable peak shaving (PS) results, indicating their suitability and reliability under various load conditions for PS testing. Extended cycling tests confirm their potential for long-term grid-scale energy storage, enhancing their appeal for PS and FR applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗