Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Marginal likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

88 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation based inference with domain adaptation for strong gravitational lensing

Simulation based inference leverages machine learning to carry out Bayesian inference in systems with intractable likelihoods. However, transitioning a network trained on simulated data to real data runs the risk of encountering domain shift, leading to performance losses. We attempt to implement domain adaptation into the sbi neural posterior estimation framework using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as an additional network loss, using masked autoregressive fow (MAF) as our density estimator. We test the network on a set of 400,000 simulated strong gravitational lensing images generated using deeplenstronomy. The source domain is defined as low noise whereas the target domain has a noise profile sampled from experimentally derived DES survey conditions. We find that SBI appears robust against small changes in the data with similar performance on source and target. Moreover, while DA does lead to performance improvements, they are marginal at 6% less inference error.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1995

On the uncertainty in single molecule fluorescent lifetime and energy emission measurements

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least square methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67% of those can be noise and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probably density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. the ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background nose and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

Brown, Emery N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Uncertainty in Single Molecule Fluorescent Lifetime and Energy Emission Measurements

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large, however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67 percent of those can be noise, and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probability density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. The ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background noise and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

Brown, Emery N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Modernizing NASA’s Space Flight Safety and Mission Success (S&MS) Assurance Framework In Line With Evolving Acquisition Strategies and Systems Engineering Practices

This paper presents the objectives-driven, case-based safety and mission success (S&MS) assurance framework being developed by the NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA), including its motivations and its implementation via a S&MS Assurance Standard that is under development, supplemented by supporting standards including an S&MS Analysis Management Standard that is also under development. A need to evolve NASA’s S&MS assurance framework has emerged in recent years, resulting from the need to accommodate new acquisition models; the need to accommodate evolving systems engineering (SE) practices; the need to stipulate acceptable levels of S&MS risk; the need for improved integration of S&MS into SE; and the need for clearer risk acceptance accountability. The objectives-driven, case-based S&MS assurance framework proposed here is responsive to that need. Its key features include: • The establishment, by NASA Acquirers, of fundamental S&MS performance objectives that define limits of acceptability for the likelihoods that mission technical objectives will be accomplished and that people, assets, and environments put at risk by the mission will not be adversely affected; • The development and approval of Providers’ S&MS plans for meeting Acquirers’ S&MS performance objectives, including commitments to support Acquirer audit, investigation, and reporting needs; • The development, by Providers, of S&MS assurance cases that argue, supported by evidence, that the Provider has met, or is on track to meeting, the fundamental S&MS objectives; • The evaluation, throughout the program/project life cycle, of Provider S&MS assurance cases as the primary S&MS-related technical basis for Acquirer risk acceptance and the granting to the Provider of authority to proceed through the program/project life cycle. This proposed S&MS assurance framework is notable for its lack of prescription of traditional S&MS requirements and strategies such as defined failure tolerances, margins, or analysis requirements. Instead, Providers are given latitude to propose their own strategies for meeting the fundamental S&MS performance objectives, subject to independent review and Acquirer approval. The result is a framework for S&MS assurance that is at once both rigorous and flexible.

Assurance Case↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling Thermal-Hydraulics with Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture Models

Because of the importance of maintaining the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in light-water reactors, significant effort has been devoted over the last several decades to understand the potential failure mechanisms, characterize how material properties evolve due to environmental conditions, and develop tools to assess the probability of fracture in aged RPVs during potential transient events. One important aspect of this problem that has not yet been fully addressed is the effects of nonuniform cooling on the RPV inner wall due to the way low-temperature water injected into the primary coolant system is distributed within the RPV during potential loss-of-coolant accident transients. Colder temperatures are expected in the regions near the inlets, causing a “cold-plume” effect. Rapid cooling of the RPV wall increases the likelihood of fracture initiation, and localized cooling due to cold-plume effects could potentially exacerbate this problem. The Grizzly code can perform a three-dimensional simulation of the RPV thermomechanical response as well as the probabilistic assessment of fracture for a population of pre-existing flaws, which is necessary to account for spatial variations in coolant temperature. This report documents a first effort to couple Grizzly RPV fracture models with computational fluid dynamics models performed using the Cardinal code, which allows for a realistic representation of the temperature distribution. This report demonstrates this coupling approach on two test cases: a simplified proof-of-concept scenario and a realistic small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In both cases, the effects of the spatially varying temperature are evident; although, because the small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario was far from challenging the RPV’s margins, it is still inconclusive how important cold-plume effects are in realistic accident scenarios. However, this effort represents an important step toward performing realistic analyses to determine to what extent spatially nonuniform cooling might affect RPV integrity under more aggressive accident scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Effectiveness of Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test Detector Schemes in Seismic Event Detection and the Avoidance of Nontarget Signals

Cross-correlation techniques have played a long-standing and pivotal role in seismic event monitoring. However, the performance of correlation-based detectors is challenged by nuisance seismicity, or nontarget signals. Such detections are a problem when the mission is to automatically map events to the correct source region. Using aftershocks of the 2014 $M_w$ 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake, we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing a dynamic correlation processor framework in a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) detector configuration to minimize nontarget detections. A GLRT maximizes a detection statistic with respect to one or more unknown parameters. In this case, the detection statistic is a template signal match against the waveform in a window sliding over a data stream, and the unknown parameter is an index variable indicating group membership of the template event or events. Detected events are assigned to the event group that yields the largest detection statistic. In this work, our results show that a GLRT detector will outperform a suite of independently operating correlation and subspace detectors in terms of having a lower nontarget detection rate at a given missed detection rate. We also show that a GLRT detector composed of a few high-rank subspace detectors has a slightly higher nontarget detection rate, but a significantly lower missed detection rate, than a GLRT detector composed of many low-rank subspace detectors. The high-rank GLRT configuration produced impressive results even with marginal data (single channel, single station, and very low time bandwidth product), which bodes well for the utility of building efficient aftershock classification systems and global monitoring systems at larger scales. However, future work is required to assess performance at the regional scale and to assess the performance of the system at detecting target events not used in the detector template creation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Controlling Electron Backstreaming Phenomena Through the Use of a Transverse Magnetic Field

DEEP-SPACE mission propulsion requirements can be satisfied by the use of high specific impulse systems such as ion thrusters. For such missions. however. the ion thruster will be required to provide thrust for long periods of time. To meet the long operation time and high-propellant throughput requirements, thruster lifetime must be increased. In general, potential ion thruster failure mechanisms associated with long-duration thrusting can be grouped into four areas: (1) ion optics failure; (2) discharge cathode failure; (3) neutralizer failure; and (4) electron backstreaming caused by accelerator grid aperture enlargement brought on by accelerator grid erosion. The work presented here focuses on electron backstreaming. which occurs when the potential at the center of an accelerator grid aperture is insufficient to prevent the backflow of electrons into the ion thruster. The likelihood of this occurring depends on ion source operation time. plasma density, and grid voltages, as accelerator grid apertures enlarge as a result of erosion. Electrons that enter the gap between the high-voltage screen and accelerator grids are accelerated to the energies approximately equal to the beam voltage. This energetic electron beam (typically higher than 1 kV) can damage not only the ion source discharge cathode assembly. but also any of the discharge surfaces upstream of the ion acceleration optics that the electrons happen to impact. Indeed. past backstreaming studies have shown that near the backstreaming limit, which corresponds to the absolute value of the accelerator grid voltage below which electrons can backflow into the thruster, there is a rather sharp rise in temperature at structures such as the cathode keeper electrode. In this respect operation at accelerator grid voltages near the backstreaming limit is avoided. Generally speaking, electron backstreaming is prevented by operating the accelerator grid at a sufficiently negative voltage to ensure a sufficiently negative aperture center potential. This approach can provide the necessary margin assuming an expected aperture enlargement. Operation at very negative accelerator grid voltages, however, enhances ion charge-exchange and direct impingement erosion of the accelerator grid. The focus of the work presented here is the mitigation of electron backstreaming by the use of a magnetic field. The presence of a magnetic field oriented perpendicular to the thruster axis can significantly decrease the magnitude of the backflowing electron current by significantly reducing the electron diffusion coefficient. Negative ion sources utilize this principle to reduce the fraction of electrons in the negative ion beam. The focus of these efforts has been on the attenuation of electron current diffusing from the discharge plasma into the negative ion extraction optics by placing the transverse magnetic field upstream of the extraction electrodes. In contrast. in the case of positive ion sources such as ion thrusters, the approach taken in the work presented here is to apply the transverse field downstream of the ion extraction system so as to prevent electrons from flowing back into the source. It was found in the work presented here that the magnetic field also reduces the absolute value of the electron backstreaming limit voltage. In this respect. the applied transverse magnetic field provides two mechanisms for electron backstreaming mitigation: (1) electron current attenuation and (2) backstreaming limit voltage shift. Such a shift to less negative voltages can lead to reduced accelerator grid erosion rates.

Foster, John E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Rise of the Andes and Amazon Landscape Evolution on Diversification of Lowland terra-firme Forest Birds

Since the 19th Century, the unmatched biological diversity of Amazonia has stimulated a diverse set of hypotheses accounting for patterns of species diversity and distribution in mega-diverse tropical environments. Unfortunately, the evidence supporting particular hypotheses to date is at best described as ambiguous, and no generalizations have emerged yet, mostly due to the lack of comprehensive comparative phylogeographic studies with thorough trans-Amazonian sampling of lineages. Here we report on spatial and temporal patterns of diversification estimated from mitochondrial gene trees for 31 lineages of birds associated with upland terra-firme forest, the dominant habitat in modern lowland Amazonia. The results confirm the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and a protracted spatio-temporal pattern of diversification, with a gradual reduction of earlier (1st and 2nd) and older (> 2 mya) splits associated with each lineage in an eastward direction. (The easternmost tributaries of the Amazon, the Xingu and Tocantins Rivers, are not associated with any splits older than > 2 mya). For the suboscine passerines, maximum-likelihood estimates of rates of diversification point to an overall constant rate over the past 5 my (up to a significant downturn at 300,000 y ago). This "younging-eastward" pattern may have an abiotic explanation related to landscape evolution. Triggered by a new pulse of Andean uplift, it has been proposed that modern Amazon basin landscapes may have evolved successively eastward, away from the mountain chain, starting approximately 10 mya. This process was likely based on the deposition of vast fluvial sediment masses, known as megafans, that may have extended progressively and in series eastward from Andean sources. This process plausibly explains the progressive extinction of original Pebas wetland of western-central Amazonia by the present fluvial landsurfaces of a more terra-firme type. The youngest landsurfaces thus lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion away from a northerly orientation generally towards the east and an Atlantic Ocean outlet. The advance of megafans is best seen by the location of axial rivers such as the Orinoco and Mamore which lie against the cratonic margins furthest from the Andes, at the distal ends of major megafan ramparts. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. If this landscape-sequence scenario is accurate, it parallels the progressive younging of the passerine lineages. The bird DNA data appears to confirm strongly the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers--as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and thus probably as facilitaters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

Aleixo, Alexandre↗
NASA NTRS2003

Bayesian estimation of dose thresholds

An example is described of Bayesian estimation of radiation absorbed dose thresholds (subsequently simply referred to as dose thresholds) using a specific parametric model applied to a data set on mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons. A Weibull based relative risk model with a dose threshold parameter was used to analyse, as an example, lung cancer mortality and determine the posterior density for the threshold dose after single exposures to 60Co gamma rays or fission neutrons from the JANUS reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The data consisted of survival, censoring times and cause of death information for male B6CF1 unexposed and exposed mice. The 60Co gamma whole-body doses for the two exposed groups were 0.86 and 1.37 Gy. The neutron whole-body doses were 0.19 and 0.38 Gy. Marginal posterior densities for the dose thresholds for neutron and gamma radiation were calculated with numerical integration and found to have quite different shapes. The density of the threshold for 60Co is unimodal with a mode at about 0.50 Gy. The threshold density for fission neutrons declines monotonically from a maximum value at zero with increasing doses. The posterior densities for all other parameters were similar for the two radiation types.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of Disordered Bladed-Disk Assemblies

In a effort to address current needs for efficient, air propulsion systems, we have developed some new analytical predictive tools for understanding and alleviating aircraft engine instabilities which have led to accelerated high cycle fatigue and catastrophic failures of these machines during flight. A frequent cause of failure in Jets engines is excessive resonant vibrations and stall flutter instabilities. The likelihood of these phenomena is reduced when designers employ the analytical models we have developed. These prediction models will ultimately increase the nation's competitiveness in producing high performance Jets engines with enhanced operability, energy economy, and safety. The objectives of our current threads of research in the final year are directed along two lines. First, we want to improve the current state of blade stress and aeromechanical reduced-ordered modeling of high bypass engine fans, Specifically, a new reduced-order iterative redesign tool for passively controlling the mechanical authority of shroudless, wide chord, laminated composite transonic bypass engine fans has been developed. Second, we aim to advance current understanding of aeromechanical feedback control of dynamic flow instabilities in axial flow compressors. A systematic theoretical evaluation of several approaches to aeromechanical feedback control of rotating stall in axial compressors has been conducted. Attached are abstracts of two .papers under preparation for the 1998 ASME Turbo Expo in Stockholm, Sweden sponsored under Grant No. NAG3-1571. Our goals during the final year under Grant No. NAG3-1571 is to enhance NASA's capabilities of forced response of turbomachines (such as NASA FREPS). We with continue our development of the reduced-ordered, three-dimensional component synthesis models for aeromechanical evaluation of integrated bladeddisk assemblies (i.e., the disk, non-identical bladeing etc.). We will complete our development of component systems design optimization strategies for specified vibratory stresses and increased fatigue life prediction of assembly components, and for specified frequency margins on the Campbell diagrams of turbomachines. Finally, we will integrate the developed codes with NASA's turbomachinery aeromechanics prediction capability (such as NASA FREPS).

McGee, Oliver G., III↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Thermal Output of Energetic Materials (LDRD Final Report)

We present the results of an LDRD project, funded by the Nuclear Deterrence IA, to develop capabilities for quantitative assessment of pyrotechnic thermal output. The thermal battery igniter is used as an exemplar system. Experimental methodologies for thermal output evaluation are demonstrated here, which can help designers and engineers better specify pyrotechnic components , provide thermal output guidelines for new formulations, and generate new metrics for assessing component performance and margin given a known failure condition. A heat-transfer analysis confirms that the dominant mode of energy transfer from the pyrotechnic output plume to the heat pellet is conduction via deposition of hot titanium particles. A simple lumped-parameter model of titanium particle heat transfer and a detailed multi-phase model of deposition heat transfer are discussed. Pyrotechnic function, as defined by "go/no-go" standoff testing of a heat pellet, is correlated with experimentally measured igniter plume temperature, titanium metal particle temperature, and energy deposition. Three high-speed thermal diagnostics were developed for this task. A three-color imaging pyrometer, acquiring 100k images per second on three color channels, is deployed for measurement of titanium particle temperatures. Complimentary measurements of the overall igniter plume emission ("color") temperature were conducted using a transmission-grating spectrograph in line-imaging mode. Heat flux and energy deposition to a cold wall at the heat-pellet location were estimated using an eroding thermocouple probe, with a frequency response of ~5 kHz. Ultimate "go/no-go" function in the igniter/heat-pellet system was correlated with quantitative thermal metrics, in particular surface energy deposition and plume color temperature. Titanium metal-particle and plume color temperatures both experience an upper bound approximated by the 3245-K boiling point of TiO 2 . Average metal-particle temperatures remained nearly constant for all standoff distances at T = 2850 K, ± 300 K, while plume color temperature and heat flux decay with standoff—suggesting that heat-pellet failure results from a drop in metal-particle flux and not particle temperature. At 50% likelihood of heat-pellet failure, peak time-resolved plume color temperatures drop well below TiO 2 boiling to ~2000 - 2200 K, near the TiO 2 melting point. Estimates of peak heat flux decline from up to 1 GW/m 2 for near-field standoffs to below 320 MW/m 2 at 50% failure likelihood.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2008

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Likelihoods and Parameters from the WMAP Data

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), launched in 2001, has mapped out the Cosmic Microwave Background with unprecedented accuracy over the whole sky. Its observations have led to the establishment of a simple concordance cosmological model for the contents and evolution of the universe, consistent with virtually all other astronomical measurements. The WMAP first-year and three-year data have allowed us to place strong constraints on the parameters describing the ACDM model. a flat universe filled with baryons, cold dark matter, neutrinos. and a cosmological constant. with initial fluctuations described by nearly scale-invariant power law fluctuations, as well as placing limits on extensions to this simple model (Spergel et al. 2003. 2007). With all-sky measurements of the polarization anisotropy (Kogut et al. 2003; Page et al. 2007), two orders of magnitude smaller than the intensity fluctuations. WMAP has not only given us an additional picture of the universe as it transitioned from ionized to neutral at redshift z approx.1100. but also an observation of the later reionization of the universe by the first stars. In this paper we present cosmological constraints from WMAP alone. for both the ACDM model and a set of possible extensions. We also consider tlle consistency of WMAP constraints with other recent astronomical observations. This is one of seven five-year WMAP papers. Hinshaw et al. (2008) describe the data processing and basic results. Hill et al. (2008) present new beam models arid window functions, Gold et al. (2008) describe the emission from Galactic foregrounds, and Wright et al. (2008) the emission from extra-Galactic point sources. The angular power spectra are described in Nolta et al. (2008), and Komatsu et al. (2008) present and interpret cosmological constraints based on combining WMAP with other data. WMAP observations are used to produce full-sky maps of the CMB in five frequency bands centered at 23, 33, 41, 61, and 94 GHz (Hinshaw et al. 2008). With five years of data, we are now able to place better limits on the ACDM model. as well as to move beyond it to test the composition of the universe. details of reionization. sub-dominant components, characteristics of inflation, and primordial fluctuations. We have more than doubled the amount of polarized data used for cosmological analysis. allowing a better measure of the large-scale E-mode signal (Nolta et al. 2008). To this end we describe an alternative way to remove Galactic foregrounds from low resolution polarization maps in which Galactic emission is marginalized over, providing a cross-check of our results. With longer integration we also better probe the second and third acoustic peaks in the temperature angular power spectrum, and have many more year-to-year difference maps available for cross-checking systematic effects (Hinshaw et al. 2008).

Dunkey, J.↗