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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evolved Gas Analysis–Mass Spectrometry Exposes Polymer Network Structures

Polymer network structures in epoxy thermosets play an important role in the final thermoset material properties. However, analytical characterization of these network structures is difficult due to their amorphous nature. In this work, the application of evolved gas analysis–mass spectrometry (EGA-MS) to characterize the polymer network structures of bisphenol A (BPA)-based thermosets is demonstrated. Analytical characterization of the polymer network structures is accomplished by monitoring the Product-Specific Kinetics (PSK) of BPA monomer formation during thermal degradation investigations. We relate observed differences in the activation energy (E a ) of BPA monomer formation to the local packing environment around the BPA monomer units within the polymer network. Variations in the local environment related to the polymer networks manifest qualitatively as broadening in the thermal profile of the BPA monomer evolution and quantitatively as changes in the activation energy (E a ). Three BPA thermoset formulations were investigated; two amine-cured thermoset with 4,4′-diaminodiphenylmethane (DDM) or poly(propylene glycol) bis(2-amino-propyl ether) (PPG400) and a homopolymerized thermoset via curing with Epikure 3253 catalyst (3253). Results revealed that the 3253 thermoset contained two distinct packing densities in the polymer network, while DDM and PPG400 thermosets had uniform distributions of packing densities. Results from the DDM thermoset revealed a gradually decreasing E a , while the apparent E a of PPG400 was consistent over the entire degradation. Furthermore, these differences in E a were concluded to stem from the flexibility of the corresponding polymer networks and the ability of the network components to rearrange and occupy formed voids. Due to the minimal sample required for analysis (100–200 μg), this EGA-MS technique has great potential for postproduction evaluation of composite parts to identify changes in the polymer networks from use and aging, which could signal compromised performance.

Degradation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a neural network model for peeling–ballooning stability analysis in the KSTAR tokamak pedestals

The neural network model, MISHKA-NN is developed to mitigate the computational burden associated with the linear ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability analysis of the pedestal based on the peeling–ballooning (P–B) model. By utilizing both 1D plasma profiles (current density, pressure gradient, and safety factor) and 0D parameters (plasma geometry, total current, and toroidal mode number), the model predicts linear growth rate of edge-localized ideal MHD instability in a given equilibrium state. By enabling the prediction of each instability within a second, the model reduces the time required for plotting a pedestal P–B stability diagram (j - α diagram) from approximately 100 CPU hours to a few CPU minutes. Notably, even with the utilization of parametric pressure and current profiles and plasma boundary shapes for the training dataset, the model shows a satisfactory level of performance in benchmarking the j - α diagram for the reconstructed equilibrium from a KSTAR tokamak experiment. We anticipate the model to serve as a versatile alternative to 2D linear MHD stability codes, alleviating numerical costs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Data Processing Pipeline To Extract A Knowledge Graph From Heterogeneous Data For Socio-technical Analysis Of Critical Infrastructure Influence

The code is written in Python and consists of the following pipeline that is implemented in Apache Airflow. This pipeline intends to understand the companies that are directly or indirectly involved with a type of critical infrastructure system at some point in that system's lifecycle. The pipeline takes a configuration file that specifies a list of initial companies to consider, a geographic region of interest, and a set of SEC form types as well as other data sources (e.g. CrunchBase) from which to extract entities and relations. There are four main components to this pipeline as currently implemented: Entity Extraction, Network Construction, Analysis, and Visualization. First, Entity Extraction, is implemented as the `topear-extract_organizations` Apache Airflow workflow. Given an initial query that specifies a geographic region of interest and a time interval, the software will extract CI facilities of interest and organizations that have a direct influence relationship to those facilities (e.g. ownership). During the course of the LDRD, we focused on Electric Vehicle charging stations and this information is available via the Department of Energy (DOE) database on fueling stations maintained by NREL. Within the context of the DOE CESER project, we have focused on Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). Second, the Network Extraction component will iteratively construct a social network graph given the set of organizations and people extracted in the previous step. Organizations (and eventually People if desired) are then fed as a query to the `topgear-construct_social_network` Apache Airflow workflow which given a set of initial companies and data sets (e.g. SEC EDGAR form types, OpenCorporates, Crunchbase). This Airflow workflow will iteratively query such data sources to discover relationships with new organizations and people. For example, this module can iteratively query SEC EDGAR for metadata that documents the number of each type of form for the given set of companies and their location. This forms metadata represents a catalog of data sources from SEC EDGAR for the extracted social network knowledge graph. The pipeline then downloads these forms from the website and saves them in a build directory for further processing. These documents are then parsed for entities and relations. Again, we note that in additional to SEC data sources, this step can also pull in information on organizations via API services such as CrunchBase and OpenCorporates or bulk data sources. At the end of this step, the resultant social network, the Critical Infrastructure network, and the edges that encode relationships between organizations and CI facilities, form the Adversarial Socio-Technical Network (ASTN) that informs the analysis. Third, the Analysis component processes these generated ASTN. Previously, that has included the ability to compare prevalence of different vendors for a given infrastructure component type across different regions as well as identify common public and private investors across those vendors. This was demonstrated for EV Charging Stations across several different metropolitan areas within an IEEE PES GridEdge publication. More recently, we have looked at ways to identify infrastructure owners and operators of BESS with the most nameplate capacity across different states as well as other indictors of risk resulting from changes in ownership over time. Finally, the Visualization component consists of an HTML/CSS/JS framework by which users can interact geospatial, operational, and organizational relationships across a given portfolio of Critical Infrastructure facilities. The objective is to provide a library of UI/UX modules that can be repurposed for stakeholder-specific dashboards. All of the modules are related via a common event model that enables UI actions in one view to percolate across the other views.

Weaver, Gabriel [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A simulation framework for evaluating electronic order workflows in integrated health records

Electronic health record (EHR) systems are critical to modern healthcare delivery, yet the dynamic workflows that govern electronic order processing remain underexplored. Inefficiencies in these digital pathways can cause delays in care, repetitive workloads, and even patient harm. This study presents a discrete-event simulation framework used to reconstruct and evaluate EHR-based order workflows in a large integrated healthcare system. Using real-world data extracted from the Veterans Health Administration’s Corporate Data Warehouse, the authors mapped order events to standardized state transitions and modeled their progression across different facilities of varying complexity levels. After being calibrated with empirical distributions of transition times and validated against observed time-in-system metrics, the simulation demonstrates close alignment with historical performance. Scenario analyses reveal that resource capacity constraints significantly amplify the impact of electronic order surges, which are reflected in the disproportionate growth in backlogs and processing delays. Adjustments in transition probabilities further increased recirculation and extended workflow paths. Network-based analysis identified Reserved, InProgress, and Completed as structurally critical states that function as hubs within the process network but the transitions in-between also act as major bottlenecks. These results showcased the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in monitoring EHR order processing performance and evaluating consequences of workflow changes on healthcare network resources planning. The proposed simulation framework provides a scalable data-driven tool to support operational decision-making and improve the efficiency of electronic order management in complex healthcare environments.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural network interatomic potential-driven analysis of phase stability in Ti–V alloys at the atomistic scale

The evolution of the ω phase in titanium–vanadium (Ti–V) alloys is critical for their mechanical properties, particularly in aerospace and biomedical applications. Here, this study employs a Rapid Artificial Neural Network (RANN) potential to model the ω phase evolution at the atomistic level, demonstrating a high degree of consistency with experimental observations, unlike the Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM), which fails to capture this phase transformation accurately. RANN simulations replicate key phenomena such as the nucleation of α precipitates at ω/β interfaces and accurate lattice orientations, enhancing our understanding of phase stability and transformation kinetics. The findings affirm that RANN potentials can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of complex material behaviors, offering a powerful tool for designing advanced materials with tailored properties such as solute effect in various stacking fault energies. This approach not only bridges the gap between theoretical predictions and empirical data but also sets a new direction for future research in materials science, emphasizing the integration of machine learning techniques in the development and optimization of new alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transcriptomic and Proteomic Insights into Host Immune Responses in Pediatric Severe Malarial Anemia: Dysregulation in HSP60-70-TLR2/4 Signaling and Altered Glutamine Metabolism

Severe malarial anemia (SMA, Hb < 6.0 g/dL) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission zones. This study explored the entire expressed human transcriptome in whole blood from 66 Kenyan children with non-SMA (Hb ≥ 6.0 g/dL, n = 41) and SMA (n = 25), focusing on host immune response networks. RNA-seq analysis revealed 6862 differentially expressed genes, with equally distributed up-and down-regulated genes, indicating a complex host immune response. Deconvolution analyses uncovered leukocytic immune profiles indicative of a diminished antigenic response, reduced immune priming, and polarization toward cellular repair in SMA. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis revealed that immune-regulated processes are central molecular distinctions between non-SMA and SMA. A top dysregulated immune response signaling network in SMA was the HSP60-HSP70-TLR2/4 signaling pathway, indicating altered pathogen recognition, innate immune activation, stress responses, and antigen recognition. Validation with high-throughput gene expression from a separate cohort of Kenyan children (n = 50) with varying severities of malarial anemia (n = 38 non-SMA and n = 12 SMA) confirmed the RNA-seq findings. Proteomic analyses in 35 children with matched transcript and protein abundance (n = 19 non-SMA and n = 16 SMA) confirmed dysregulation in the HSP60-HSP70-TLR2/4 signaling pathway. Additionally, glutamine transporter and glutamine synthetase genes were differentially expressed, indicating altered glutamine metabolism in SMA. This comprehensive analysis underscores complex immune dysregulation and novel pathogenic features in SMA.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

MDLoader: A Hybrid Model-Driven Data Loader for Distributed Graph Neural Network Training

Scalable data management is essential for processing large scientific dataset on HPC platforms for distributed deep learning. In-memory distributed storage is preferred for its speed, enabling rapid, random, and frequent data access required by stochastic optimizers. Processes use one-sided or collective communication to fetch remote data, with optimal performance depending on (i) dataset characteristics, (ii) training scale, and (iii) interconnection network. Empirical analysis shows collective communication excels with larger mini-batch sizes and/or fewer processes, whereas one-sided communication outperforms at larger scales. We propose MDLoader, a hybrid in-memory data loader for distributed graph neural network training. MDLoader features a model-driven performance estimator that dynamically selects between one-sided and collective communication at the beginning of training using Tree of Parzen Estimators (TPE). Evaluations on NERSC Perlmutter and OLCF Summit show MDLoader outperforms single-backend loaders by up to 2.83 × and predicts the suitable communication method with 96.3% (Perlmutter) and 94.3% (Summit) success rate.

Bae, Jonghyun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abiotic Stress Reorganizes Rhizosphere and Endosphere Network Structure of Sorghum bicolor

Sorghum bicolor is a promising bioenergy feedstock with high biomass production and unusual tolerance for stresses, such as water and nutrient limitation. Although the membership of the sorghum microbiome in response to stress has been explored, relatively little is known about how microbe–microbe networks change under water- or nutrient-limited conditions. This is important because network changes can indicate impacts on the functionality and stability of microbial communities. We performed network-based analysis on the core bacterial and archaeal community of an agronomically promising high biomass bioenergy genotype, Grassl, grown under nitrogen and water stress. Stress caused relatively minor changes in bacterial abundances within soil, rhizosphere, and endosphere communities but led to significant changes in bacterial network structure and modularity. We found a complete reorganization of network roles in all plant compartments, as well as an increase in the modularity and proportion of positive associations, which potentially could represent coexistence and cooperation in the sorghum bacterial/archaeal community under stress. Although stressors are often believed to be destabilizing, we found stressed networks were as or more stable than non-stressed networks, likely due to their redundancy and compartmentalization. Together, these findings support the idea that both sorghum and its bacterial/archaeal community can be resilient to future environmental stressors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions using artificial neural networks

Here, we present a data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions across the nuclear chart, employing an artificial neural network to model nuclear dipole responses. We train the network on a dataset of experimentally measured dipole strength functions for 216 different nuclei. To assess its predictive capability, we test the trained model on an additional set of 10 new nuclei, where experimental data exist. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network not only accurately reproduces known data but also identifies potential inconsistencies in experimental datasets, indicating which results may warrant further review or possible rejection. For nuclei where experimental data are sparse or unavailable, the network confirms theoretical calculations, reinforcing its utility as a predictive tool in nuclear physics. Finally, utilizing the predicted electric dipole polarizability, we extract the value of the symmetry energy at saturation density and find it consistent with results from the literature.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Templates for Risk Informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE)

We investigate recovery of geometric structure from networks embedded in manifolds with spatially varying curvature, extending the constant-curvature framework of Lubold et al. (2023). Our work supports cascade risk assessment in critical infrastructure through the Templates for Risk-informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE) framework. Simulations on a bi-modal Gaussian surface show that constant-curvature methods yield weighted averages shaped by clique patterns, while hierarchical clustering identifies distinct regimes. Localized estimation, however, reveals boundary contamination in transitional regions. To address heterogeneity, we develop distance metrics for graphs with edge and node features, proving their metric validity, and validate them via deterministic graph generation from canonical tilings. We further propose a diffusion-based anomaly detection approach that treats networks as glued manifolds, using curvature discontinuities to detect structural anomalies. Employing the carré-du-champ operator and scalar curvature, we achieve robust anomaly discrimination, demonstrated on the Singapore Water Treatment (SWaT) dataset with joint network-traffic and sensor features. Integration with TRACE reveals how curvature shapes cascade dynamics: positive curvature impedes, while negative curvature accelerates propagation. This geometric perspective provides interpretable risk metrics and visualization tools for critical infrastructure managers. While full validation remains ongoing, our contributions establish a rigorous foundation for geometric analysis of network resilience and cascade vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Design and Evaluation of Zero Trust Architecture for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: EVs @ Scale Series on EV Charging Station Cybersecurity

Implementing a zero trust architecture can significantly bolster the security of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. EV charging infrastructure includes numerous networked interfaces, each of which can present potential vulnerabilities. When these vulnerabilities are exploited, they can compromise the entire system, leading to severe operational and security risks. Zero trust is a security model that operates on the principle of "never trust, always verify," which helps manage the attack surface and limit the scope of any potential compromises. Fundamentally, this model ensures that no entity, whether inside or outside the network, is trusted by default. The design principles of zero trust include continuous verification, strict deny-by-default access controls, and micro-segmentation. Continuous verification ensures that every request is thoroughly checked, regardless of its origin. Strict access controls enforce the principle of least privilege, allowing users and devices only the minimum necessary access to perform their functions. Micro-segmentation involves dividing the network into smaller, isolated segments to prevent lateral movement in case of a breach. In the context of EV charging infrastructure, zero trust can be implemented through various strategies. For example, multi-factor authentication (MFA) can be required for engineers to access the management interfaces and control systems of charging stations. Real-time monitoring and analysis of network traffic can help detect and respond to anomalies. Systems that do not need to communicate with each other can be micro-segmented to enhance security. All communications should adhere to predefined policies to be permitted. Additionally, encrypting communications can protect sensitive information exchanged between chargers and management systems. This paper presents a zero trust architecture specifically designed for EV charging infrastructure. Implementing zero trust not only mitigates risks but also builds a resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding and quickly recovering from cyber threats. The architecture addresses six defined security objectives. A comprehensive test plan is developed to assess the architecture against these objectives, and the results of the evaluation are reported. This approach is essential for maintaining the reliability and integrity of EV charging services in an increasingly interconnected and vulnerable digital landscape. This is the first in a planned series of papers exploring the implementation of zero trust in EV charging infrastructure. Each paper will delve into different aspects and applications of zero trust, highlighting how various work processes and requirements can lead to distinct architectural designs. These architectures will be tailored to address specific security challenges and operational needs within the EV charging ecosystem, ensuring a robust and adaptable security framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Analysis of a Polypropylene Capacitor for Resonant Tuning Networks in WPT Applications

This study presents the thermal analysis of polypropylene capacitors operating at high frequencies and high currents used in the resonant tuning networks for electric vehicle (EV) wireless charging systems. The thermal analysis and performance results of the CELEM polypropylene capacitors are presented at different currents for a polyphase wireless power transfer (WPT) system while the study can be expanded to other capacitors by different manufacturers. Thermal equivalent circuit of the capacitor is derived and required cold plate size and design calculations are conducted by modeling the polypropene capacitor in MATLAB. The polypropene capacitor's finite element analysis (FEA) model is developed using COMSOL Multiphysics simulation software, and the thermal characteristics and analysis of the capacitor are presented in this paper.

Aktas, Ahmet↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking microstructure to creep behavior in vertically and horizontally built LPBF Haynes 282 compared with wrought material via θ -projection

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) has emerged as a promising route for fabricating intricate geometries in high-performance alloys. Haynes 282 (H282) is a strong candidate for applications such as heat exchangers or engines due to its excellent creep strength and thermal stability; however, the long-term creep behavior of LPBF-processed H282 remains poorly understood. In this study, the θ -projection method is used to analyze and extrapolate the creep behavior of vertically built LPBF, horizontally built LPBF, compared to wrought H282 tested at 816 °C. Vertically built LPBF H282 exhibits the lowest minimum creep rate (MCR), while the horizontally built condition shows a higher MCR comparable to that of wrought H282. Despite these differences, both LPBF conditions exhibit significantly shorter rupture life and reduced rupture strain than the wrought material, with the most severe degradation observed in the horizontal builds, consistent with an earlier onset of tertiary creep and accelerated strain-rate evolution. Microstructural characterization reveals that both LPBF and wrought H282 exhibit abundant twin-related boundary character; however, their grain boundary topologies differ markedly. The wrought alloy contains a higher fraction of low-angle grain boundaries and continuous twin lamellae, whereas the LPBF microstructure is characterized by a suppressed low-angle boundary population and fragmented twin-related boundaries embedded within irregular high-angle grain boundary networks. Fractographic analysis further reveals predominantly intergranular cracking in LPBF H282, accompanied by grain-boundary-decorated carbides, Al 2 O 3 inclusions, and high-aspect-ratio pores. These results demonstrate that grain boundary topology, rather than minimum creep rate alone, plays a critical role in governing creep damage accumulation and rupture behavior in LPBF and wrought H282.

Creep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Assembled Oligomers Facilitate Amino Acid-Driven CO 2 Capture at the Air–Aqueous Interface

Direct air capture of CO 2 using amino acid absorbents, such as glycine or sarcosine, is constrained by the relatively slow mass transfer of CO 2 through the air–aqueous interface. Our recent study showed a marked improvement in CO 2 capture by introducing CO 2 -permeable oligo-dimethylsiloxane (ODMS-MIM + ) oligomers with cationic (imidazolium, MIM + ) headgroups. Here, in this work, we have employed all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in combination with subensemble analysis using network theory to provide a detailed molecular picture of the behavior of CO 2 and the glycinate anions (Gly – ) at the ODMS-MIM + decorated air–aqueous interfaces. We show that the cationic head groups of the surfactants enhance the concentration and lifetime of Gly – in the interfacial region, while ODMS tails promote the physisorption of CO 2 in the interfacial region. Together, these two factors increase the effective region of contact and the probability of interactions between CO 2 and Gly – compared to that of the pure air–aqueous interface. The fundamental insights gained in this work establish essential foundations for developing hybrid systems with oligomer-decorated interfaces to maximize the overall CO 2 capture rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursor reaction pathway leading to BiFeO 3 formation: insights from text-mining and chemical reaction network analyses

BiFeO 3 (BFO) is a next-generation non-toxic multiferroic material with applications in sensors, memory devices, and spintronics, where its crystallinity and crystal structure directly influence its functional properties. Designing sol–gel syntheses that result in phase-pure BFO remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between metal complexes in the precursor solution. Here, we combine text-mined data and chemical reaction network (CRN) analysis to obtain novel insight into BFO sol–gel precursor chemistry. We perform text-mining analysis of 340 synthesis recipes with the emphasis on phase-pure BFO and identify trends in the use of precursor materials, including that nitrates are the preferred metal salts, 2-methoxyethanol (2 ME) is the dominant solvent, and adding citric acid as a chelating agent frequently leads to phase-pure BFO. Our CRN analysis reveals that the thermodynamically favored reaction mechanism between bismuth nitrate and 2ME interaction involves partial solvation followed by dimerization, contradicting assumptions in previous literature. We suggest that further oligomerization, facilitated by nitrite ion bridging, is critical for achieving the pure BFO phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving the P–O/P–OH riddle: direct synthesis and neutron diffraction characterization of dianionic dithiophosphonates

Here, we report the first definitive neutron diffraction study aimed at resolving the P–OH/P$=$O structural ambiguity in metal dithiophosphonates. The small NH 4 counterion forces a rare syn-configuration via an extended hydrogen-bonding network. Neutron analysis definitively confirmed the fully deprotonated P$=$O moiety, thus confirming the formation of a dianionic dithiophosphonate, a versatile synthon in homoleptic and heteroleptic coordination environments.

Pillay, Michael N. [National Dong Hwa Univ. (Taiwa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗