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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
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DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol-deep convection interaction based on joint cell-thermal tracking in Large Eddy Simulations during the TRACER campaign

In cumulus clouds, aerosol concentrations control cloud droplet concentrations, modifying cloud radiative properties, precipitation processes, and cloud electrification. However, mechanisms of aerosol-deep convection interactions are not well understood due to complex cloud dynamics and microphysics. We investigate the interaction of aerosols with isolated deep convection using Large Eddy Simulations of two cases during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) near Houston, Texas, using a joint cell-thermal tracking algorithm. Cumulus thermals are droplet generators, since supersaturation and droplet nucleation coincide with thermal centers, where the strongest updrafts occur. Primary ice crystal formation does not take place inside thermals, but at layers where previous thermals detrained moisture. As subsequent thermals containing supercooled droplets penetrate these layers, hail and graupel form at or near these thermals. Higher aerosol concentrations result in higher droplet concentrations that suppress drizzle, delay warm rain processes, and transport more moisture aloft. This increases snow and ice amount, as well as graupel and hail, leading to more lightning. Polluted thermals initiate at slightly higher altitudes, and are slightly larger and faster, suggesting a weak invigoration. We also find more thermals per cell, but fewer isolated cells, since convection is more aggregated and intense, especially near the end of the 24 h simulation. Non-linear mesoscale feedback likely triggered by temperature and moisture responses to aerosol-thermal interactions causes the aggregation. Time-lagged aerosol-reinitialization experiments show that the mesoscale response is the predominant forcing for the invigoration. These changes happen within one day, on a smaller scale than previously suggested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ambient and Initial Temperature Effects on Energy Consumption Rate Modeled in FASTSim

Ambient and initial temperatures significantly impact the energy consumption rate (ECR) of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to auxiliary loads and the temperature dependence of battery efficiency. This study introduces a streamlined, physics-based thermal modeling approach within the FASTSim tool that bridges the gap between oversimplified constant-load models and computationally expensive high-fidelity simulations. By employing a lumped thermal mass framework, the model captures fundamental energy balances and critical non-linear energy penalties while maintaining the computational efficiency required for expansive sensitivity studies. The simulations evaluated a compact BEV hatchback with a resistive heater over city (UDDS) and highway (HWFET) test cycles. Compared to a 22 degrees Celsius initial and ambient temperature baseline, a -7 degrees Celsius initial/ambient temperature resulted in a 221% increase in the ECR for the city cycle and a 100% increase for the highway cycle. Conversely, a 45 degrees Celsius initial / 40 degrees Celsius ambient temperature resulted in a 40% increase for UDDS and an 18% increase for HWFET. These results demonstrate that while cold conditions impose the most severe energy penalties due to resistive heating, the impact is consistently more pronounced in city driving where auxiliary loads represent a larger proportion of total energy. This lightweight yet robust framework enables researchers to rapidly quantify BEV thermal sensitivity across diverse climates without the need for high-overhead simulation environments.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Summary of Research Report

Ten papers, published in various publications, on buckling, and the effects of imperfections on various structures are presented. These papers are: (1) Buckling mode localization in elastic plates due to misplacement in the stiffner location; (2) On vibrational imperfection sensitivity on Augusti's model structure in the vicinity of a non-linear static state; (3) Imperfection sensitivity due to elastic moduli in the Roorda Koiter frame; (4) Buckling mode localization in a multi-span periodic structure with a disorder in a single span; (5) Prediction of natural frequency and buckling load variability due to uncertainty in material properties by convex modeling; (6) Derivation of multi-dimensional ellipsoidal convex model for experimental data; (7) Passive control of buckling deformation via Anderson localization phenomenon; (8)Effect of the thickness and initial im perfection on buckling on composite cylindrical shells: asymptotic analysis and numerical results by BOSOR4 and PANDA2; (9) Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis; (10) Buckling of structures with uncertain imperfections - Personal perspective.

Elishakoff, Isaac↗
NASA NTRS2026

High Temperature Dielectric Properties and Differential Scanning Calorimetry of Lunar Simulants

To guide development of microwave process technology that could be used during in situ construction on the Moon, we measured the high-temperature basic dielectric properties (εʹ and εʺ) of 17 lunar simulants and related materials. In order to confidently use these data one needs to understand the data’s strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, a goal of this publication is to provide insights into the comparative effects of sample composition, pre-treatments, experimental variables, high temperatures, and other factors on the measured response. The dielectric measurements were performed using the cavity perturbation method over a temperature range between room temperature to 1000 °C, or higher, and provided the real and imaginary components of permittivity at six frequencies. The utility of the original values was limited by the varying density of the pellets used in the measurement. Therefore, all of the εʹ and εʺ measurements at the frequency of 2466 MHz have been scaled to a constant density, 1.75 g/cm 3 . Here the data are presented as graphs chosen to aid analysis within and across simulant groups. To gain additional insight into the processes happening at the elevated temperatures in the dielectric measurements, heat capacity data was obtained using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) on several of the simulant materials. Our data show that over the frequency range 397 MHz – 2985 MHz a material’s behavior does not greatly change, as compared to the scale of differences observed between lunar mare and highland simulants at high temperatures. For example at 1000 °C, the mare simulant JSC-1A absorbs 10 times more power than the highland simulant NUW-LHT-5M. We observe that as melting temperatures are reached both permittivity and dielectric loss rise non-linearly, helping to explain thermal runaway during microware heating. Our data show that even less than a few weight % of many non-lunar minerals, and the use of mixtures in simulants can affect the dielectric behavior at higher temperatures. A comparison of our results with published dielectric data for Apollo samples and with remote sensing of the Moon supports the conclusion the simulants and lunar material at room temperature have very similar dielectric values.

Differential Scanning Calorimetry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discrete Rotational Energy for Polyatomic Molecules in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

The environments experienced by vehicles upon entry into planetary atmospheres generally result in severe aerothermodynamic loading. These flows are characterized by the formation of strong shock waves, behind which high temperatures and non-equilibrium environments are generated, and the accurate prediction of internal energy relaxation and chemical kinetics becomes important. This manuscript focuses on the internal relaxation of the rotational energy of polyatomic molecules. Previous work has described the implementation of a discrete rotational energy model for diatomic molecules (linear rotators). Later, Gimelshein et. al extended this model to include polyatomic molecular internal energies. However, they did not include details on how to generate the particles at equilibrium conditions and centrifugal distortion was not included in their model. The purpose of the present study is to extend the afore-mentioned models to the treatment of discrete rotational energy in polyatomic molecules with the addition of centrifugal distortion. An overview of the background theory needed for the implementation of the model will be given followed by the model itself and verification of the model. For example, sampled versus Boltzmann distributions are compared in Figure 1 for CH3 (oblate rotator – two quantum numbers) and examples of thermal relaxation behavior for linear and non-linear rotators are presented in Figure 2. In addition, comparisons of thermophysical properties will be presented, as well as examples of adiabatic relaxation and application to hypersonic flow.

Rarefied Gas Dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Scanning Electron Microscope Experiments for Microscale Mechanical Testing and Validated Modeling of Fiber Reinforced Thermoplastics

A novel, in-situ, scanning electron microscope (SEM) mechanical testing capability for materials at the microscale which provides experimental validation to a machine learning (ML) toolset for full-field validation of physics-based micromechanics models is being developed by researchers at NASA Glenn Research Center. These are enabling technologies for the integration of multiscale digital twins for materials into system level models which will result in the improved performance, material discovery, reduced production cost and time, rapid characterization, and prognostic structural health monitoring (SHM) for materials and structures for extreme environments in support of NASA space exploration missions. In order to bridge the material structure-to-system gap for digital twins, physics-based models must be experimentally validated at multiple length scales. Seminal microscale experiments, conducted at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), were limited to transverse compression of single-layer, unidirectional thermoset polymer matrix composite (PMC) micropillar specimens [1]. The early phases of the current project followed those initial results and setup to reproduce the compression testing of PMC material on the custom-built piezoelectric actuated micromechanical testing rig built by MicroTesting Solutions LLC. In this work, samples of thermoplastic PMC material were first machined into 3 mm cubes, and then further machining and final milling was done using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB). The initial experiment was done on a pillar roughly 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall. Additional pillars were milled with final sizes ranging from 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall to 40 µm x 40 µm x 65 µm tall. A speckle pattern for in-situ full-field measurements using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was applied with platinum, which was coated on the surface, and then the FIB was used to mill away some of the coating to produce an irregular pattern of Pt on the pillar surface. The samples were loaded into the custom testing rig and placed into the SEM and loaded under compression until failure. Images were collected in the SEM during testing. Post-processing of the images was conducted using DIC to obtain full-field displacement and strain measurements elucidating the role of the matrix as well as fiber-fiber interaction at the microscale within the composite subjected to compression loading well into the non-linear regime of the material. Moreover, the evolution of fiber-matrix debonding and matrix cracking is observed in-situ at the microscale. This data, along with images segmented with a newly developed ML toolset [2], was used to create and validate physics-based micromechanics models. An image of the failed micropillar is shown in Figure 1. The techniques developed in the initial compression experiment was tailored to the validation needs of the models and expanded to include different sized samples as well as possibly tension and fatigue.

Laura Wilson↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological Constraints from Full-Scale Clustering and Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing with DESI DR1

We present constraints on cosmic structure growth from the analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing with galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1. We analyze four samples drawn from the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) target classes. Projected galaxy clustering measurements from DESI are supplemented with lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey around the same targets. Our method relies on a simulation-based modeling framework using the AbacusSummit simulations and a complex halo occupation distribution model that incorporates assembly bias. We analyze scales down to $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for clustering and $2.5 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for lensing, leading to stringent constraints on $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m} / 0.3}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ when fixing other cosmological parameters to those preferred by the CMB. We find $S_8 = 0.794 \pm 0.023$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.295 \pm 0.012$ when using lensing measurements from DES and KiDS. Similarly, for HSC, we find $S_8 = 0.793 \pm 0.017$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.303 \pm 0.010$ when assuming the best-fit photometric redshift offset suggested by the HSC collaboration. Overall, our results are in good agreement with other results in the literature while continuing to highlight the constraining power of non-linear scales.

Lange, Johannes U. [American U.] (ORCID:0000000224↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-resolved X-ray imaging of the current filamentation instability in solid-density plasmas

The streaming of energetic charged particles can magnetize astrophysical and laboratory plasmas via the current filamentation instability. Despite its importance, the experimental characterization of this instability has remained a challenge. Here, we report an experiment combining a high-intensity optical laser with a high-brightness X-ray free electron laser that successfully images the instability in solid-density plasmas with 200nm spatial and 50fs temporal resolution. We characterize the development of µm-scale filamentary structures and their evolution over tens of picoseconds through a non-linear merging process. The measured plasma density modulations and long merging time reveal the critical importance of space-charge effects and ion motion on this electron-driven instability. Supporting theoretical analysis and kinetic simulations help distinguish the relative role of space-charge and resistive effects. Our findings indicate that magnetic fields on the order of 10megagauss are produced, with important implications for transport and radiation emission of energetic particles in plasmas.

Schoenwaelder, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Control for Load-Following of Boiling Water Reactors Part I: Linear Systems and Fully-Observable Dynamics

Automation control is a key strategy to improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants. Not only does it help reduce operational costs, but it also extends the value proposition of these plants to nontraditional markets, including unattended operations in remote villages and space. However, the dynamics of the operating environments of nuclear reactors are subject to changes over time, and there are no widely adopted methods to ensure that the automation strategy will remain effective over the extended durations required for these applications. Adaptive control is a discipline that offers the possibility to accommodate such changes online. However, it relies on mathematical assumptions that must be respected to ensure robustness and reliability. In this work, we derive an adaptive control formulation for linear systems in which all states are observable and apply it to an instance of load-follow operation for Boiling Water Reactors. We assumed uncertainty in two factors: the temperature coefficient and the control rod worth, both of which are affected over time by the evolution of the nuclear reactor core environment. With an arbitrary penalty factor of 5, we found that the mean absolute and integral time absolute errors can be reduced by more than 90%, underscoring the strength of adaptive control. To extend the application to more challenges, different uncertainties and load-follow trajectories, as well as new formulations that include non-linearity and partial observability, are currently being developed.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Weak Lensing and Galaxy Clustering Cosmological Analysis Framework

We present the methodology for the weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 data set. In this work, we design and validate the analysis pipeline for the cosmic shear, galaxy clustering plus galaxy$-$galaxy lensing ($2 \times 2$pt), and the joint analysis in the $3 \times 2$pt. Our framework accounts for key theoretical uncertainties, such as baryonic feedback and galaxy bias, incorporating both linear and non-linear models. We apply scale cuts in regimes where theoretical modeling becomes unreliable. The robustness of the pipeline is validated using mock data and simulations, confirming unbiased cosmological constraints and highlighting the importance of posterior projection effects in the validation process. As a result, we deliver robust and validated analysis pipelines for cosmic shear, $2 \times 2$pt, and $3 \times 2$pt in $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM scenarios, including a well-defined set of scales suitable for real data analysis, a robust prescription for theoretical systematics, and the theoretical covariance of the signal. This comprehensive methodology also lays the groundwork for future galaxy surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Sanchez-Cid, D. [Zurich U.; Madrid, CIEMAT; Madrid↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Space-Time Fluid (Unabridged)

Purpose: This essay is a retelling of general relativity in a language in which space-time geometry is expressed as a fluid. This trivial and useful reformulation gives 1) a non-perturbative covariant description of cosmological inhomogeneities and 2) a simple formula describing how cosmic inhomogeneities are generated on super-horizon scales. Methods: Equating the Ricci curvature with the associated matter stress-energy gives a description of space-time geometry in terms of fluid properties. These locally measurable (covariant) non-perturbative quantities are in some ways superior to commonly used "gauge invariant" quantities. The dynamics of a quantity (kurvature) which describes cosmological inhomogeneities is described in detail. A detailed comparison is made of space-time fluid dynamics with that of a classical (Newtonian physics) fluid. Results: The fluid lexicon permits an unambiguous definition of the velocity of space-time. The evolution of the space-time fluid is in many ways identical with that of the classical fluid when expressed in Lagrangian coordinates. Kurvature is a measure of the specific binding energy of the fluid and is a most useful covariant measure of cosmological inhomogeneities. For plausible matter models kurvature will increase, even on super-horizon scales, due to non-linear hydrodynamic effects rather than gravity. This phenomena is also exhibited by classical fluids. Conclusion: The space-time fluid representation of geometrodynamics gives a simple and useful description of the evolution of cosmological inhomogeneities.

Stebbins, Albert [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000023807725↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: optimized $w$CDM simulation-based inference with weak lensing map-level hybrid statistics

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using hierarchical hybrid statistics within a Bayesian simulation-based inference framework that is based on the Gower Street simulations. To maximize the precision of the inference, we have developed a new, information-theory based, data compression of the weak lensing maps to just seven highly informative summary statistics. The hybrid scheme exploits the high information content of the power spectrum, compressing both the power spectrum and neural-based summaries that are designed to extract further information. Our simulation-based approach enables principled forward modelling of all major sources of systematic uncertainty and survey properties into realistic mock observations, including the survey mask, photometric redshift uncertainties, intrinsic galaxy alignments, multiplicative shear calibration bias, source galaxy clustering, non-Gaussian shape noise, and non-linear structure formation. The summary statistics are then used in a Bayesian simulation-based inference pipeline. The inference is validated through coverage tests and checks for robustness against baryonic feedback. Assuming a $w$CDM cosmology, our analysis yields $S_8 = 0.808 \pm 0.017$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325 \pm 0.024$, and $w < -0.766$ (marginalized posterior 68 per cent credible intervals). This rigorous combination of information theory, physics- and neural network-based extreme data compression, and principled Bayesian analysis improves the figure of merit for $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ by 60 per cent over the previous state-of-the-art, and by almost a factor of 3 over two-point analyses of the same data. They are the most precise joint constraints on $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ from weak gravitational lensing data alone of any survey to date. We intend to apply this analysis to the more recent DES Y6 data.

Williamson, J. [University Coll. London]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gravitational Waves as a Source of Large-Scale White Noise: New Constraints

A stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background sources a shear in the flow of cosmic fluid which, through non-linear mode coupling, generates large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the kurvature density field. Building on the LSWN framework of our previous work, we derive the amplitude of this GW-induced LSWN and translate the observational non-detection of LSWN into bounds on the production redshift and density of gravity waves. In particular, a minimal constraint on gravity waves with $z=0$ density parameter $Ω_\mathrm{GW0}^*$ in frequency band $f_*$ generated at redshift $z_*$ must satisfy ${z_*}^2\,Ω_\mathrm{GW0}^*<5\times10^7\,(f_*/\mathrm{nHz})^{3/2}$. This, for example, precludes the gravity waves recently detected by pulsar timing arrays \cite{NANOGrav:2023hvm} from being present before $z_*\sim10^8$, long after the quark hadron phase transition. While orders of magnitude stronger than other constraints on gravity waves, this is a minimal LSWN constraint as realistic modeling of early universe gravity wave production, including the granularity of the gravity-wave sources and the LSWN produced by the associated acoustic waves would probably tighten this constraint by orders of magnitude.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗
DOE OSTI2026

CoLoRe-2LPT: Lyman-$α$ mock catalogues for the validation of DESI cosmological analyses

The Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest has become a crucial probe for studying the large-scale structure of the universe at high redshift ($z > 2$), providing powerful constraints on Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and the full-shape (FS) clustering of matter. As a key ingredient for upcoming BAO and FS analyses, we present a new generation of fast cosmological Ly$α$ mocks based on second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). These new mocks significantly improve upon previous log-normal approaches, both at accurately capturing small scale clustering and at recovering the non-linear broadening of the BAO peak. They are able to reproduce Ly$α$ statistics within $10\%$ of the latest DESI measurement; including the Ly$α$ bias and the redshift-space distortion $β$ parameter, mean transmitted flux, and 1D power spectrum. The corresponding quasar (QSO) clustering is also improved with respect to previous approaches, calibrated against high-resolution Abacus simulations, recovering the observational QSO linear bias to less than $5\%$ and improving redshift-space distortions via 2LPT velocities and the addition of Fingers-of-God effects. Furthermore, these mocks incorporate high column density systems and metal lines, allowing us to explore the effects and systematics induced by these astrophysical contaminants. This new set of mocks has been key for enhancing the modeling and validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ full shape cosmological analysis. This work provides a physically motivated and computationally efficient tool for simulating current and next-generation Ly$α$ surveys and validating FS and BAO analysis.

Bernal, M.F. Ruiz-Herrera [Madrid, CIEMAT] (ORCID:↗