Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Proposed Project Selection Method for Human Support Research and Technology Development (HSR&TD)

The purpose of HSR&TD is to deliver human support technologies to the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) that will be selected for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are acceptable. HSR&TD must select an may of technology development projects, guide them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the resulting number of usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project scoring methodology to support managing the HSR&TD project portfolio. Researchers strongly disagree as to what are the best technology project selection methods, or even if there are any proven ones. Technology development is risky and outstanding achievements are rare and unpredictable. There is no simple formula for success. Organizations that are satisfied with their project selection approach typically use a mix of financial, strategic, and scoring methods in an open, established, explicit, formal process. This approach helps to build consensus and develop management insight. It encourages better project proposals by clarifying the desired project attributes. We propose a project scoring technique based on a method previously used in a federal laboratory and supported by recent research. Projects are ranked by their perceived relevance, risk, and return - a new 3 R's. Relevance is the degree to which the project objective supports the HSR&TD goal of developing usable advanced human support technologies. Risk is the estimated probability that the project will achieve its specific objective. Return is the reduction in mission life cycle cost obtained if the project is successful. If the project objective technology performs a new function with no current cost, its return is the estimated cash value of performing the new function. The proposed project selection scoring method includes definitions of the criteria, a project evaluation questionnaire, and a scoring formula.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human‐exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human‐volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human‐volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic‐spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC‐ 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury‐risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

Wells, Jesica↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1979

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Completion of the Edward Air Force Base Statistical Guidance Wind Tool

The goal of this task was to develop a GUI using EAFB wind tower data similar to the KSC SLF peak wind tool that is already in operations at SMG. In 2004, MSFC personnel began work to replicate the KSC SLF tool using several wind towers at EAFB. They completed the analysis and QC of the data, but due to higher priority work did not start development of the GUI. MSFC personnel calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of 10-minute peak wind occurrence based on the 2-minute average wind speed for several EAFB wind towers. Once the data were QC'ed and analyzed the climatologies were calculated following the methodology outlined in Lambert (2003). The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and then were stratified by hour, direction (10" sectors), and direction (45" sectors)/hour. For all climatologies, MSFC calculated the mean, standard deviation and observation counts of the Zminute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds. MSFC personnel also calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds using PDFs. The empirical PDFs were asymmetrical and bounded on the left by the 2- minute average wind speed. They calculated the parametric PDFs by fitting the GEV distribution to the empirical distributions. Parametric PDFs were calculated in order to smooth and interpolate over variations in the observed values due to possible under-sampling of certain peak winds and to estimate probabilities associated with average winds outside the observed range. MSFC calculated the individual probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds by integrating the area under each curve. The probabilities assist SMG forecasters in assessing the shuttle FR for various Zminute average wind speeds. The A M ' obtained the processed EAFB data from Dr. Lee Bums of MSFC and reformatted them for input to Excel PivotTables, which allow users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUI was created from the PivotTables using VBA code. It is run through a macro within Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and probabilities in a fast-paced operational environment. The GUI was designed to look and operate exactly the same as the KSC SLF tool since SMG forecasters were already familiar with that product. SMG feedback was continually incorporated into the GUI ensuring the end product met their needs. The final version of the GUI along with all climatologies, PDFs, and probabilities has been delivered to SMG and will be put into operational use.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Volcanism on Venus as inferred from the morphometry of large shields

Morphometric data for the Venusian shields are compared with those for large volcanos on Mars and the Big Island shield in Hawaii. Reasonable assumptions and constraints on the chemical and physical properties of venusian magma, crust, and lithosphere are used with the morphometric data to estimate probable deep magma-source depths below the shields. Such data for selected large volcanos on Venus, Mars, and earth are presented. The flattened profiles of the Venusian shields are interpreted to be predominantly the result of the density contrast between lava and rocks between the source and surface, a relatively shallow depth to a primary magma source, low magma viscosity, high magma volumes and rates, and the inferred presence of flanking vents and lava tubes that carried lavas great distances from the summit. The measured shield heights are used in conjunction with a reasonable range of magma and rock densities to estimate the depths to deep magma sources, yielding an average of 25 km beneath the Venusian plains with a range depth of 3 to 40 km.

Schaber, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Application of an approach and landing system model to the space shuttle orbiter vehicle

An analytic model and procedure are described which can be used to estimate probability distributions of touchdown conditions, without utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation. Example applications are presented, including one-step and two-step flare strategies for the space shuttle orbiter. The computed probability distributions for the two-step flare are compared with the corresponding histograms from an independent Monte Carlo simulation of the same situation. The computed distributions are very good fits to the Monte-Carlo-generated histograms for pertinent longitudinal and lateral variables at three points (including touchdown) along the vehicle's final approach trajectory. The model, thus verified, has more inherent power for assessing the effects of system element changes than conventional Monte Carlo techniques.

Johnson, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Data processing 1: Advancements in machine analysis of multispectral data

Multispectral data processing procedures are outlined beginning with the data display process used to accomplish data editing and proceeding through clustering, feature selection criterion for error probability estimation, and sample clustering and sample classification. The effective utilization of large quantities of remote sensing data by formulating a three stage sampling model for evaluation of crop acreage estimates represents an improvement in determining the cost benefit relationship associated with remote sensing technology.

Swain, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Piston manometer as an absolute standard for vacuum-gauge calibration.

Determination of total pressure in a calibration volume by measuring the force on a thin circular disk, of accurately-known area, that is freely suspended in a hole in the container wall, so that the disk is substantially flush with the wall. The disk almost fills the hole, so that there is a narrow annular gap. A continuous flow of calibrating gas, injected into the container in order to maintain a desired pressure, passes through the annular gap to a diffusion pump. The ratio of pressures on the two faces of the disk is on the order of 100:1, so that downstream pressure need be known only nominally in order to deduce the upstream pressure. Force on the disk is measured by a balance that is calibrated in situ with dead weights. In one arrangement, pressures in the range from 10 to 500 microtorr were measured with an estimated probable error of (1 microtorr + 1%).

Warshawsky, I.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Piston manometer as an absolute standard for vacuum-gauge calibration.

Determination of the total pressure in a calibration volume by measuring the force on a thin circular disk, of accurately known area, that is freely suspended in a hole in the container wall, so that the disk is substantially flush with the wall. The disk almost fills the hole, so that there is a narrow annular gap. A continuous flow of calibrating gas, injected into the container in order to maintain a desired pressure, passes through the annular gap to a diffusion pump. The ratio of pressures on the two faces of the disk is of the order of 100:1, so that downstream pressure need be known only nominally in order to deduce the upstream surface. Force on the disk is measured by a balance that is calibrated in situ with dead weights. In one arrangement, pressures in the range from 10 to 500 microtorr were measured with an estimated probable error of (1 microtorr + 1%).

Warshawsky, I.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar activity geomagnetic field and terrestrial weather

Spectral analysis is used as an independent test of the reported association between interplanetary-magnetic-field structure and terrestrial weather. Spectra of the Ap geomagnetic activity index and the vorticity area index for the years from 1964 to 1970 are examined for common features that may be associated with solar-related phenomena, specifically for peaks in the power spectra of both time series with periods near 27.1 days. The spectra are compared in three ways, and the largest peak with the smallest probability estimate is found to occur at a period of 27.49 days. This result is considered to be statistically significant at the 98% level. It is concluded that the period derived from the Ap spectrum is related to solar rotation and that the analysis provides supporting evidence for a connection between the vorticity area index and solar activity.

Knight, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Evaluation of spectral channels and wavelength regions for separability of agricultural cover types

The spectral channels were evaluated as well as wavelength regions; visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared were evaluated with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (P sub c) in discriminating agricultural cover types. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range of 0.4 to 11.7 micrometers acquired in the middle of July for three flightlines were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired in the middle of August, over the same three flightlines, to investigate the effect of time on the results. The effect of deletion of each spectral channel as well as each wavelength region on P sub c was given. Values of P sub c for all possible combinations of wavelength regions in the subsets of one to twelve spectral channels were also given. The overall values of P sub c were found to be greater for the data of the middle of August than the data of the middle of July.

Kumar, R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Evaluation of wavelength groups for discrimination of agricultural cover types

Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels, in the wavelength range 0.46 to 11.7 mm, acquired in July 1971 for three flightlines, were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. These twelve spectral channels were divided into four wavelength groups (W1, W2, W3 and W4), each consisting of three wavelength channels -- with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (P sub c) in discriminating agricultural cover types. The same analysis was also done for the data acquired in August, to investigate the effect of time on these results. The effect of deletion of each of the wavelength groups on P sub C in the subsets of one to nine channels, is given. Values of P sub C for all possible combinations of wavelength groups, in the subsets of one to eleven channels are also given.

Kumar, R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Evaluation of spectral channels and wavelength regions for separability of agricultural cover types

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spectral channel as well as wavelength regions - visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared - with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (P-c) in discriminating agricultural cover types. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range of 0.4 to 11.7 micron acquired in the middle of July for three flightlines were analysed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired in the middle of August, over the same three flightlines, to investigate the effect of time on the results. The effect of deletion of each spectral channel as well as each wavelength region on P-c is given. Values of P-c for all possible combinations of wavelength regions in the subsets of one to twelve spectral channels are also given. The overall values of P-c were found to be greater for the data of the middle of August than the data of the middle of July.

Kumar, R.↗