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At least 91 records · Page 5

Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System

A method of parameterizing the coefficients of a dynamical system based of a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) representing the flow dynamics of a viscous fluid has been introduced. (A brief description of POD is presented in the immediately preceding article.) The present parameterization method is intended to enable construction of the dynamical system to accurately represent the temporal evolution of the flow dynamics over a range of Reynolds numbers. The need for this or a similar method arises as follows: A procedure that includes direct numerical simulation followed by POD, followed by Galerkin projection to a dynamical system has been proven to enable representation of flow dynamics by a low-dimensional model at the Reynolds number of the simulation. However, a more difficult task is to obtain models that are valid over a range of Reynolds numbers. Extrapolation of low-dimensional models by use of straightforward Reynolds-number-based parameter continuation has proven to be inadequate for successful prediction of flows. A key part of the problem of constructing a dynamical system to accurately represent the temporal evolution of the flow dynamics over a range of Reynolds numbers is the problem of understanding and providing for the variation of the coefficients of the dynamical system with the Reynolds number. Prior methods do not enable capture of temporal dynamics over ranges of Reynolds numbers in low-dimensional models, and are not even satisfactory when large numbers of modes are used. The basic idea of the present method is to solve the problem through a suitable parameterization of the coefficients of the dynamical system. The parameterization computations involve utilization of the transfer of kinetic energy between modes as a function of Reynolds number. The thus-parameterized dynamical system accurately predicts the flow dynamics and is applicable to a range of flow problems in the dynamical regime around the Hopf bifurcation. Parameter-continuation software can be used on the parameterized dynamical system to derive a bifurcation diagram that accurately predicts the temporal flow behavior.

Kalb, Virginia L.↗

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully-Coupled Climate Model

Here we investigate the role of the atmospheric circulation in AMOC by comparing a fully-coupled large ensemble, a forced-ocean simulation, and new experiments using a fully-coupled global climate model where winds above the boundary layer are nudged towards reanalysis. When winds are nudged north of 45°N, agreement with RAPID array observations of AMOC at 26.5°N improves across several metrics. The phasing of interannual variability is well-captured due to the response of the local Ekman component in both wind-nudging and forced-ocean simulations, however the variance remains underestimated. The mean AMOC strength is substantially reduced relative to the fully-coupled model large ensemble, which is biased high, due to the impact of winds on surface buoyancy fluxes over the subpolar gyre. Nudging winds towards observations also reduces the 1979-2016 trend in AMOC, suggesting that improvement in the representation of the high-latitude atmosphere is important for projecting long-term AMOC changes.

AMOC↗

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic‐boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8‐day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re‐parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

land data assimilation↗

Knowledge Engineering for Preservation and Future use of Institutional Knowledge

This Project has two main thrusts-preservation of special knowledge and its useful representation via computers. NASA is losing the expertise of its engineers and scientists who put together the great missions of the past. We no longer are landing men on the moon. Some of the equipment still used today (such as the RL-10 rocket) was designed decades ago by people who are now retiring. Furthermore, there has been a lack, in some areas of technology, of new projects that overlap with the old and that would have provided opportunities for monitoring by senior engineers of the young ones. We are studying this problem and trying out a couple of methods of soliciting and recording rare knowledge from experts. One method is that of Concept Maps which produces a graphical interface to knowledge even as it helps solicit that knowledge. We arranged for experienced help in this method from John Coffey of the Institute of Human and Machine Technology at the University of West Florida. A second method which we plan to try out in May, is a video-taped review of selected failed missions (e.g., the craft tumbled and blew up). Five senior engineers (most already retired from NASA) will, as a team, analyze available data, illustrating their thought processes as they try to solve the problem of why a space craft failed to complete its mission. The session will be captured in high quality audio and with at least two video cameras. The video can later be used to plan future concept mapping interviews and, in edited form, be a product in itself. Our computer representations of the amassed knowledge may eventually, via the methods of expert systems, be joined with other software being prepared as a suite of tools to aid future engineers designing rocket engines. In addition to representation by multimedia concept maps, we plan to consider linking vast bodies of text (and other media) by hypertexting methods.

Moreman, Douglas↗

The impact of CFD on development test facilities - A National Research Council projection

The results of a National Research Council study on the effect that advances in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) will have on conventional aeronautical ground testing are reported. Current CFD capabilities include the depiction of linearized inviscid flows and a boundary layer, initial use of Euler coordinates using supercomputers to automatically generate a grid, research and development on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations, and preliminary research on solutions to the full N-S equations. Improvements in the range of CFD usage is dependent on the development of more powerful supercomputers, exceeding even the projected abilities of the NASA Numerical Aerodynamic Simulator (1 BFLOP/sec). Full representation of the Re-averaged N-S equations will require over one million grid points, a computing level predicted to be available in 15 yr. Present capabilities allow identification of data anomalies, confirmation of data accuracy, and adequateness of model design in wind tunnel trials. Account can be taken of the wall effects and the Re in any flight regime during simulation. CFD can actually be more accurate than instrumented tests, since all points in a flow can be modeled with CFD, while they cannot all be monitored with instrumentation in a wind tunnel.

Korkegi, R. H.↗

Using Machine Learning to Classify Earth Science Articles

Developing a machine learning pipeline to automatic the classification of research article topics, where topics are geophysical descriptors. The resulting classified documents will be added to the Usage-Based Discovery graph database, along with corresponding NASA Earth Science datasets, with the intent of linking the NASA data product with uses of it that can be searched by topic. The project will aid in the following goals (1) creating a wider representation of how and how much NASA Earth Science data products are used, (2) identifying when NASA data products have been used even when they are not clearly cited, and (3) providing the UBD search tool end-user with set of recommended datasets based on a given topic query.

Machine Learning↗

Modeling Dust Mineralogical Composition: Sensitivity to Soil Mineralogy Atlases and Their Expected Climate Impacts

Soil dust aerosols are a key component of the climate system, as they interact with short- and long-wave radiation, alter cloud formation processes, affect atmospheric chemistry and play a role in biogeochemical cycles by providing nutrient inputs such as iron and phosphorus. The influence of dust on these processes depends on its physicochemical properties, which, far from being homogeneous, are shaped by its regionally varying mineral composition. The relative amount of minerals in dust depends on the source region and shows a large geographical variability. However, many state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), upon which climate analyses and projections rely, still consider dust mineralogy to be invariant. The explicit representation of minerals in ESMs is more hindered by our limited knowledge of the global soil composition along with the resulting size-resolved airborne mineralogy than by computational constraints. In this work we introduce an explicit mineralogy representation within the state-of-the-art Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry (MONARCH) model. We review and compare two existing soil mineralogy datasets, which remain a source of uncertainty for dust mineralogy modeling and provide an evaluation of multiannual simulations against available mineralogy observations. Soil mineralogy datasets are based on measurements performed after wet sieving, which breaks the aggregates found in the parent soil. Our model predicts the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) in terms of its constituent minerals based on brittle fragmentation theory (BFT), which reconstructs the emitted mineral aggregates destroyed by wet sieving. Our simulations broadly reproduce the most abundant mineral fractions independently of the soil composition data used. Feldspars and calcite are highly sensitive to the soil mineralogy map, mainly due to the different assumptions made in each soil dataset to extrapolate a handful of soil measurements to arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. For the least abundant or more difficult-to-determine minerals, such as iron oxides, uncertainties in soil mineralogy yield differences in annual mean aerosol mass fractions of up to ∼ 100 %. Although BFT restores coarse aggregates including phyllosilicates that usually break during soil analysis, we still identify an overestimation of coarse quartz mass fractions (above 2 µm in diameter). In a dedicated experiment, we estimate the fraction of dust with undetermined composition as given by a soil map, which makes up ∼ 10 % of the emitted dust mass at the global scale and can be regionally larger. Changes in the underlying soil mineralogy impact our estimates of climate-relevant variables, particularly affecting the regional variability of the single-scattering albedo at solar wavelengths or the total iron deposited over oceans. All in all, this assessment represents a baseline for future model experiments including new mineralogical maps constrained by high-quality spaceborne hyperspectral measurements, such as those arising from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission.

Soil dust↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

Application of Domain Knowledge to Software Quality Assurance

This work focused on capturing, using, and evolving a qualitative decision support structure across the life cycle of a project. The particular application of this study was towards business process reengineering and the representation of the business process in a set of Business Rules (BR). In this work, we defined a decision model which captured the qualitative decision deliberation process. It represented arguments both for and against proposed alternatives to a problem. It was felt that the subjective nature of many critical business policy decisions required a qualitative modeling approach similar to that of Lee and Mylopoulos. While previous work was limited almost exclusively to the decision capture phase, which occurs early in the project life cycle, we investigated the use of such a model during the later stages as well. One of our significant developments was the use of the decision model during the operational phase of a project. By operational phase, we mean the phase in which the system or set of policies which were earlier decided are deployed and put into practice. By making the decision model available to operational decision makers, they would have access to the arguments pro and con for a variety of actions and can thus make a more informed decision which balances the often conflicting criteria by which the value of action is measured. We also developed the concept of a 'monitored decision' in which metrics of performance were identified during the decision making process and used to evaluate the quality of that decision. It is important to monitor those decision which seem at highest risk of not meeting their stated objectives. Operational decisions are also potentially high risk decisions. Finally, we investigated the use of performance metrics for monitored decisions and audit logs of operational decisions in order to feed an evolutionary phase of the the life cycle. During evolution, decisions are revisisted, assumptions verified or refuted, and possible reassessments resulting in new policy are made. In this regard we implemented a machine learning algorithm which automatically defined business rules based on expert assessment of the quality of operational decisions as recorded during deployment.

Wild, Christian W.↗

Electro-impulse deicing - Structural dynamic studies, icing tunnel tests and applications

This paper contains a discussion of the comparison of analytical and experimental results of the dynamic response of a flat rectangular plate subjected to electro-impulse type deicing forces. Early attempts in this correlation have been hampered by the complex leading edge geometries of the airfoils tested to date. The lack of a suitable analytical model for a typical leading edge structure has prompted these preliminary investigations of simple geometries, beginning with a flat plate and to be followed by a semi-cylindrical leading edge representation. The comparisons reported herein are thus limited to rectangular plate models. Project plans and icing tunnel results are given.

Bernhart, W. D.↗

Functional specializations in human cerebral cortex analyzed using the Visible Man surface-based atlas

We used surface-based representations to analyze functional specializations in the human cerebral cortex. A computerized reconstruction of the cortical surface of the Visible Man digital atlas was generated and transformed to the Talairach coordinate system. This surface was also flattened and used to establish a surface-based coordinate system that respects the topology of the cortical sheet. The linkage between two-dimensional and three-dimensional representations allows the locations of published neuroimaging activation foci to be stereotaxically projected onto the Visible Man cortical flat map. An analysis of two activation studies related to the hearing and reading of music and of words illustrates how this approach permits the systematic estimation of the degree of functional segregation and of potential functional overlap for different aspects of sensory processing.

Non-NASA Center↗

Orion Script Generator

NASA Engineering's Orion Script Generator (OSG) is a program designed to run on Exploration Flight Test One Software. The script generator creates a SuperScript file that, when run, accepts the filename for a listing of Compact Unique Identifiers (CUIs). These CUIs will correspond to different variables on the Orion spacecraft, such as the temperature of a component X, the active or inactive status of another component Y, and so on. OSG will use a linked database to retrieve the value for each CUI, such as "100 05," "True," and so on. Finally, OSG writes SuperScript code to display each of these variables before outputting the ssi file that allows recipients to view a graphical representation of Orion Flight Test One's status through these variables. This project's main challenge was creating flexible software that accepts and transfers many types of data, from Boolean (true or false) values to "Unsigned Long Long'' values (any number from 0 to 18,446,744,073,709,551,615). We also needed to allow bit manipulation for each variable, requiring us to program functions that could convert any of the multiple types of data into binary code. Throughout the project, we explored different methods to optimize the speed of working with the CUI database and long binary numbers. For example, the program handled extended binary numbers much more efficiently when we stored them as collections of Boolean values (true or false representing 1 or 0) instead of as collections of character strings or numbers. We also strove to make OSG as user-friendly and accommodating of different needs as possible its default behavior is to display a current CUI's maximum value and minimum value with three to five intermediate values in between, all in descending order. Fortunately, users can also add other input on the same lines as each CUI name to request different high values, low values, display options (ascending, sine, and so on), and interval sizes for generating intermediate values. Developing input validation took up quite a bit of time, but OSG's flexibility in the end was worth it.

Dooling, Robert J.↗

Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES)

It has been almost 50 years since humans last set foot on the Moon. With NASA’s Artemis program, the United States and its international and commercial partners are embarking on a new endeavor to explore the lunar surface. Before we return, we will have simulated every aspect of these future missions. Many of these models and simulations (M&S) will rely on well-known and commonly-used technologies, some of which trace their origins back to the Apollo program. However, M&S has advanced significantly, as have the underlying computational capabilities. As a result, we are able to model many more aspects of the Artemis vehicles and support systems with significantly improved detail and confidence. Accurately and efficiently modeling the lunar environment will be critical to simulating the Artemis elements and mission activities. This includes characterizing and modeling lunar topography, smaller craters, exposed surface rocks, lunar regolith, surface lighting, and ambient thermal environment. These are all necessary for understanding fundamental behaviors and performance of vehicles and support systems in the lunar environment and are often determining factors in the selection of exploration sites and defining mission profiles. The Astromaterials Research and Exploration Sciences (ARES) team in the Exploration Integration and Science Directorate at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) and the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team in the Simulation and Graphics Branch at JSC are developing and maintaining the Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES) data, documentation, and software packages. This data is being fed directly into a diverse collection of graphics and simulation environments, where it is used to construct the closest known truth for numerous potential Lunar South Pole landing sites. DLES is available to projects across NASA and particularly the Artemis program to support coordinated digital representations of the lunar environment. This paper describes the fundamental need for DLES, the science data sets that are going into DLES, some of the processes used to integrate this data into DLES products, the basic products that constitute DLES, and some examples of DLES in use.

Lunar↗

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Designing Struts for the Low-Fidelity Orion Cockpit Mockup

The objective of the project was to design and construct nine struts to be installed in the low-fidelity Orion cockpit mockup (Rev F; located at NASA s Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX) as simplified representations of the existing flight designed struts designed by engineers at Lockheed Martin (the primary contractor of the Orion). The project design included: researching the existing flight designs, brainstorming design upgrades, developing three unrelated three-dimensional (3D) strut designs using Pro/Engineer Wildfire 3.0, choosing the best fit design, locating materials and their sources, implementing the chosen design, and making design modifications. The project resulted in making simple modifications to the existing struts used in the last Orion cockpit mockup. The project is relevant to NASA, because upgrades to the low-fidelity Orion cockpit mockup progresses NASA s goals of developing and testing a new spacecraft, conducting the spacecraft's first crewed mission by 2015, returning to the moon by 2020, and exploring Mars and other planets in the future.

Lucienne, Runa A.↗

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗

The Digital Space Shuttle, 3D Graphics, and Knowledge Management

The Digital Shuttle is a knowledge management project that seeks to define symbiotic relationships between 3D graphics and formal knowledge representations (ontologies). 3D graphics provides geometric and visual content, in 2D and 3D CAD forms, and the capability to display systems knowledge. Because the data is so heterogeneous, and the interrelated data structures are complex, 3D graphics combined with ontologies provides mechanisms for navigating the data and visualizing relationships.

Gomez, Julian E.↗