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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1980

Digital simulation of dynamic processes in radiometer systems

The development and application of several computer programs for simulating different classes of microwave radiometers are described. The programs are dynamic in nature, and they may be used to determine the instantaneous behavior of system variables as a function of time. Some of the programs employ random variable models in the simulations so that the statistical nature of the results may be investigated. The programs have been developed to utilize either the Continuous System Modeling Program or the Advanced Continuous System Language. The validity of most of the programs was investigated using statistical tests, and the results show excellent correlation with theoretical predictions. The programs are currently being used in the investigation of new design techniques for microwave radiometers.

Stanley, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer

Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Estimating the signal-to-noise ratio of AVIRIS data

To make the best use of narrowband airborne visible/infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, an investigator needs to know the ratio of signal to random variability or noise (signal-to-noise ratio or SNR). The signal is land cover dependent and varies with both wavelength and atmospheric absorption; random noise comprises sensor noise and intrapixel variability (i.e., variability within a pixel). The three existing methods for estimating the SNR are inadequate, since typical laboratory methods inflate while dark current and image methods deflate the SNR. A new procedure is proposed called the geostatistical method. It is based on the removal of periodic noise by notch filtering in the frequency domain and the isolation of sensor noise and intrapixel variability using the semi-variogram. This procedure was applied easily and successfully to five sets of AVIRIS data from the 1987 flying season and could be applied to remotely sensed data from broadband sensors.

Curran, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Estimation of signal-to-noise - A new procedure applied to AVIRIS data

Curran, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Zones of information in the AVIRIS spectra

To make the best use of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data an investigator needs to know the ratio of signal to random variability or noise (S/N ratio). The signal is land-cover dependent and decreases with both wavelength and atmospheric absorption and random noise comprises sensor noise and intra-pixel variability. The three existing methods for estimating the S/N ratio are inadequate as typical laboratory methods inflate, while dark current and image methods deflate the S/N ratio. We propose a new procedure called the geostatistical method. It is based on the removal of periodic noise by notch filtering in the frequency domain and the isolation of sensor noise and intra-pixel variability using the semi-variogram. This procedure was applied easily and successfully to five sets of AVIRIS data from the 1987 flying season.

Curran, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

SMC X-1 variability observed from HEAO 1

Studies are reported of the slow variability of SMC X-1 and its spectrum. An analysis of red-noise random variability is based on a method discussed by Deeter and Boynton (1982). The 0.7 s X-ray pulsar SMC X-1 is in a 3.89 day eclipsing binary system with a B0 I supergiant companion. Observations of the pulsar were conducted with the aid of the UCSD/MIT instrument on HEAO 1 from 1977 August through 1979 January. A light curve was constructed for the period 1977 September to 1978 December. The apparent tendency of SMC X-1 to be in one of two states, high or low, suggests the acquisition of average spectra separately for each state. The total (steady plus pulsed) emission from SMC X-1 displays a continuum spectrum with a dominant exponential form which implies a temperature of 17 keV for thin thermal bremsstrahlung emission or 5 keV if the other limit of a Wien spectrum is assumed.

Gruber, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Physics-Based Risk Tools Used to Analyze the International Space Station Electrical Power System Output

This paper describes the methods employed to apply probabilistic modeling techniques to the International Space Station (ISS) power system. These techniques were used to quantify the probabilistic variation in the power output, also called the response variable, due to variations (uncertainties) associated with knowledge of the influencing factors called the random variables. These uncertainties can be due to unknown environmental conditions, variation in the performance of electrical power system components or sensor tolerances. Uncertainties in these variables, cause corresponding variations in the power output, but the magnitude of that effect varies with the ISS operating conditions, e.g. whether or not the solar panels are actively tracking the sun. Therefore, it is important to quantify the influence of these uncertainties on the power output for optimizing the power available for experiments.

Patel, Bhogila M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Tuning Monotonic Basin Hopping: Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Search as Applied to Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization methods using monotonic basin hopping (MBH) have become well developed during the past decade [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. An essential component of MBH is a controlled random search through the multi-dimensional space of possible solutions. Historically, the randomness has been generated by drawing random variable (RV)s from a uniform probability distribution. Here, we investigate the generating the randomness by drawing the RVs from Cauchy and Pareto distributions, chosen because of their characteristic long tails. We demonstrate that using Cauchy distributions (as first suggested by J. Englander [3, 6]) significantly improves monotonic basin hopping (MBH) performance, and that Pareto distributions provide even greater improvements. Improved performance is defined in terms of efficiency and robustness. Efficiency is finding better solutions in less time. Robustness is efficiency that is undiminished by (a) the boundary conditions and internal constraints of the optimization problem being solved, and (b) by variations in the parameters of the probability distribution. Robustness is important for achieving performance improvements that are not problem specific. In this work we show that the performance improvements are the result of how these long-tailed distributions enable MBH to search the solution space faster and more thoroughly. In developing this explanation, we use the concepts of sub-diffusive, normally-diffusive, and super-diffusive random walks (RWs) originally developed in the field of statistical physics.

autonomous↗

NASA NTRS1999

Lower Bounds for Phase Estimation of PSK Packets with Random Phase

In this paper, we derive new Cramer-Rao bounds (CRBs) for the estimation of phase from a block of random M-PSK (M=2,4,8) symbols where the phase to be estimated is a random variable. Existing bounds for 2 and 4-PSK which model the phase as non-random are extended to obtain a new 8-PSK CRB. The new random phase bounds are compared to the new 8-PSK and existing 2,4-PSK bounds which model the phase as non-random. We see that the random phase CRBs more accurately model the behavior if the phase, as normally happens, is suppose to be constrained to the interval [-pi/M,pi/M).

Drake, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS1985

Areal coverage of storm precipitation

The probability distributions of the spatial distribution of precipitation from storms of different types were studied. The occurrence of wetted rainstorm area within a catchment was modeled as a Poisson arrival process in which each storm is composed of stationary, nonoverlapping, independent random cell clusters whose centers are Poisson-distributed as through fractals. The portion of a catchment covered by a stationary rainstorm was modeled by the common area of two overlapping circles. The first two moments of the distribution of the common area were derived from purely geometrical considerations. The spatial structure of the depth of rainfall from a stationary rainstorm was investigated using point process techniques. Total storm rainfall at the center of each cell is a random variable, and rainfall is distributed around the center specified by a spread function that may incorporate random parameters.

Eagleson, P. S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Cramer-Rao Bounds for M-PSK Packets with Random Phase

In this paper, we derive new Cramer-Rao bounds (CRBs) for the estimation of phase from a block of random M-PSK (M=8) symbols for the case where the phase to be estimated is a random variable(r.v.). Existing bounds for 2 and 4-PSK which model the phase as non-random are extended to obtain a new 8-PSK CRB. The new bound which models the phase as a r.v. is compared to the new 8-PSK bound which models the phase as non-random. With 8-PSK we see clearly that use of the random phase CRB more accurately models the behavior if the phase, as normally happens, is supposed to be constrained to the interval [-pi/M,pi/M).

Drake, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS1986

Spatial modelling of total storm rainfall

The spatial structure of the depth of rainfall from a stationary storm event is investigated by using point process techniques. Cells are assumed to be stationary and to be distributed in space either independently according to a Poisson process, or with clustering according to a Neyman-Scott scheme. Total storm rainfall at the centre of each cell is a random variable and rainfall is distributed around the centre in a way specified by a spread function that may incorporate random parameters. The mean, variance and covariance structure of the precipitation depth at a point are obtained for different spread functions. For exponentially distributed centre depth and a spread function having quadratically exponential decay, the total storm depth at any point in the field is shown to have a gamma distribution. The probability of zero rainfall at a point is investigated, as is the stochastic variability of model parameters from storm to storm. Data from the Upper Rio Guaire basin in Venezuela are used in illustration.

Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for improving Space Shuttle engine reliability

Probabilistic structural analysis methods are particularly useful in the design and analysis of critical structural components and systems that operate in very severe and uncertain environments. These methods have recently found application in space propulsion systems to improve the structural reliability of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. A computer program, NESSUS, based on a deterministic finite-element program and a method of probabilistic analysis (fast probability integration) provides probabilistic structural analysis for selected SSME components. While computationally efficient, it considers both correlated and nonnormal random variables as well as an implicit functional relationship between independent and dependent variables. The program is used to determine the response of a nickel-based superalloy SSME turbopump blade. Results include blade tip displacement statistics due to the variability in blade thickness, modulus of elasticity, Poisson's ratio or density. Modulus of elasticity significantly contributed to blade tip variability while Poisson's ratio did not. Thus, a rational method for choosing parameters to be modeled as random is provided.

Boyce, L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Magnetic moment distribution of magnetic cataclysmic variables

A simulation study is made of the relative numbers of the AM Herculis binaries and the intermediate polars as a function of the orbital period using random variables subject to suitable constraints to describe the various parameters. It is shown that the observations can be matched by a single distribution in the magnetic moment equals 0.7 +/- 0.3. For such an ensemble, the intermediate polars are distributed in the log(Porb) - log(Ps) diagram about the critical disk line but with a larger scatter than observed.

Wu, Kinwah↗

NASA NTRS1983

A study of optimal abstract jamming strategies vs. noncoherent MFSK

The present investigation is concerned with the performance of uncoded MFSK modulation in the presence of arbitrary additive jamming, taking into account the objective to devise robust antijamming strategies. An abstract model is considered, giving attention to the signal strength as a nonnegative real number X, the employment of X as a random variable, its distribution function G(x), the transmitter's strategy G, the jamming noise as an M-dimensional random vector Z, and the error probability. A summary of previous work on the considered problem is provided, and the results of the current study are presented.

Mceliece, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components under Variable Amplitude Loading

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability ]or a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

Bonacuse, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components Under Variable Amplitude Loading

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability for a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

P J Bonacuse↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗