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DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling Model (MIDAS-Solar)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power system operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power systems steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for electric grid planning and operation. This will be accomplished by developing temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation models that seamlessly simulate power systems operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). Both a multi-timescale grid model and an integrated PV model will be developed in this project to accurately study the impacts of PV variability and uncertainty on system reliability at multiple timescales. Using quasi-dynamic simulation methods and data-driven security assessment (DSA) criteria will allow the dynamic characteristics of PV to be fed forward into longer-timescale scheduling models for a complete understanding of the effect of short-term PV dynamics on bulk systems operations (e.g., reserve scheduling and deployment). Upon completion of the proposed model, this project will help operators accurately assess system reliability by deploying energy and reserve scheduling under critical contingency conditions and studying interactions among all types of essential reliability services provided by modern PV power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mildly Hierarchical Triple Dynamics and Applications to the Outer Solar System

Three-body interactions are ubiquitous in astrophysics. For instance, Kozai–Lidov oscillations in hierarchical triple systems have been studied extensively and applied to a wide range of astrophysical systems. However, mildly hierarchical triples also play an important role, but they are less explored. In this work, we consider the secular dynamics of a test particle in a mildly hierarchical configuration. We find the limit within which the secular approximation is reliable when the outer perturber is in a circular orbit. In addition, we present resonances and chaotic regions using surface-of-section plots, and characterize regions of phase space that allow large eccentricity and inclination variations. Finally, we apply the secular results to the outer Solar System. We focus on the distribution of extreme trans-Neptunian objects (eTNOs) under the perturbation of a possible outer planet (Planet 9), and find that in addition to a low-inclination Planet 9, a polar or a counter-orbiting one could also produce pericenter clustering of eTNOs, while the polar one leads to a wider spread of eTNO inclinations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

High Performance GaAs Solar Cells Grown at High Growth Rates by Atmospheric-Pressure Dynamic Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy

We report GaAs solar cells grown at rates exceeding 300 um/h by atmospheric-pressure dynamic hydride vapor phase epitaxy (D-HVPE). The surface morphology of the GaAs layers grown at those rates is smooth, with root mean square surface roughness of < 1.4 nm. We grew GaAs solar cells at rates from 35 - 309 um/h with negligible degradation in open circuit voltages (VOC), which ranged from 1.04 - 1.07 V. We showed the slight decrease in VOC is due to lack of doping optimization at higher growth rates. Deep level transient spectroscopy measurements showed low point defect densities that increases slightly with growth rate from 35 - 309 um/h. The low point defect concentrations and the high VOCs indicate that high material quality can be maintained at these extremely high growth rates, enabling the deposition of high efficiency cells in mere seconds instead of hours.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic optimization with flexible heat integration of a solar parabolic trough collector plant with thermal energy storage used for industrial process heat

There is an increasing need to reduce fossil fuel consumption used for industrial process heat to slow the effects of climate change. Using solar thermal heat is a viable way to replace fossil fuel use, but solar industrial process heat plants have limited implementation due to large upfront costs and inefficiencies from the inherent variability from solar energy. Having more flexible and optimized control over these plants can enable them to be more efficient. Here in this work, a solar industrial process heat plant with thermal energy storage that can flexibly collect and deliver heat to two industrial processes (flexible heat integration) is dynamically modeled with control setpoints found by a dynamic optimization method. The optimized case can increase the solar efficiency of the plant by 7.5% on average relative to a base case. The results show that it is best to collect heat at lower temperatures for all but ideal solar conditions, only medium to high quality heat should be stored in large quantities, and exchanging heat with a lower temperature heat sink is generally more efficient. The optimized case is able to reduce the levelized cost of heat of the plant to $31.83/MWh th compared to a base case value of $34.10/MWh th . The optimized case can reduce emissions by 22.2% compared to a plant which uses only natural gas. This work shows that dynamic optimization with flexible heat integration can be a cost-effective way to increase efficiency so that more of these types of plants can be implemented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the interplay between distributed wind generators and solar photovoltaic systems

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind and solar energy generation across the continental United States, focusing on energy availability, reliability, variability, and cooperation. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyze the performance of wind turbines and photovoltaic systems, revealing distinct patterns in energy production and reliability. The classification of wind and solar zones based on energy availability and reliability provides valuable insights for renewable energy planning and grid integration strategies. Overall, this methodology contributes to understanding wind and solar interactions, which will lead to informing effective renewable energy deployment and grid integration efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Photocarrier and Gas Dynamics to Rationally Design Heterostructured Nanocatalysts for Efficient Solar CO 2 Conversion

Recent research in CO 2 photocatalysis has largely focused on exploring new catalysts; however, details of the relationship between charge carrier dynamics and gas dynamics on the surface of nanomaterials often remain unclear. Knowledge of these processes will allow one to rationally design highly efficient catalysts for solar CO 2 conversion. This project aimed to develop state-of-the-art techniques and establish new capabilities in SRNL to enable the study of photocatalysts and other materials in detail. In FY21, we developed two new in situ techniques that are unique to SRNL, allowing the study of reaction intermediates and adsorbed gases during photocatalysis at various wavelengths of excitation. We also established a new in-house capability for catalyst synthesis and product evaluation which enables a deep understanding of how catalyst preparation methodologies impact product generation. In FY22, we gained in-house expertise and knowledge on the newly constructed a physical vapor deposition device, i.e. glancing angle deposition (GLAD) system, and constructed a flow photoreactor system for CO 2 photoconversion and other photocatalytic studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Destructive reverse bias pinning in perovskite/silicon tandem solar modules caused by perovskite hysteresis under dynamic shading

In this work, we demonstrate how perovskite hysteresis can result in permanent reductions in power output in perovskite/silicon tandem modules—including irreversible hotspot-induced damage—from only brief periods of shading. We show that reverse bias events in which a perovskite cell is biased above a threshold voltage—which in this work we find to be as low as –1.1 V—produces a temporary reduction in power output that is of sufficient magnitude to keep the cell pinned in reverse bias after the shading event ends. As a hysteretic phenomena, this crucial failure mode may be overlooked by static models of perovskite-based solar cells. Higher reverse bias voltages exacerbate the temporary reduction in short-circuit photocurrent, which is also sensitive to the level of illumination under reverse bias. Numerical device modelling demonstrates that this effect is consistent with our understanding of perovskite hysteresis as a consequence of mobile ion-electron coupling controlling rates of non-radiative recombination over time. Measurements of the dynamic response of single-junction perovskite cells are extrapolated to two-terminal and four-terminal perovskite/silicon tandem module modelling. We validate these models with measurements from an equivalent electronic circuit that represents a two-terminal perovskite–silicon tandem mini module. Two module-level solutions are discussed that address this issue, which includes increasing the number of bypass diodes and choosing better suited silicon bottom cells with higher shunter resistance in two-terminal tandem modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Switching of Nematic Plasmonic Nanocolloids for Infrared Solar Gain Control

Controlling solar gain is essential to reduce the energy consumption by residential and commercial buildings, which are responsible for ≈40% of all energy generated globally. However, the dynamic control of solar gain in the near-infrared that corresponds to ≈50% of the overall Sun's energy at the Earth's surface, separately from the visible spectral range has been a challenge, albeit commercial coatings provide passive control while retaining highly visible transmission. To address this problem, in this paper switchable silver colloids (SSCs) are demonstrated, colloidal analogs of the common silver coatings used for solar gain control. When dispersed in a nematic liquid crystal, orientations of such plasmonic silver nanoplates are controlled by ≈1 V low-voltage electric fields, allowing for sub-second switching of the near-infrared-based solar gain. Installed and retrofit products made from thin films of such nanoplate dispersions confined between glass and plastic substrates, respectively, exhibit electrically controlled infrared-based solar gain while retaining high visible-range transparency, low haze, and high color rendering index. Furthermore, this study's findings reveal a great potential of soft-matter systems in addressing energy-related problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

The great isotopic dichotomy of the early Solar System

The isotopic composition of meteorites and terrestrial planets holds important clues about the earliest history of the Solar System and the processes of planet formation. Recent work has shown that meteorites exhibit a fundamental isotopic dichotomy between non-carbonaceous (NC) and carbonaceous (CC) groups, which most likely represent material from the inner and outer Solar System, respectively. Here we review the isotopic evidence for this NC–CC dichotomy, discuss its origin and highlight the far-reaching implications for the dynamics of the solar protoplanetary disk. The NC–CC dichotomy combined with the chronology of meteorite parent-body accretion mandate an early and prolonged spatial separation of inner (NC) and outer (CC) disk reservoirs, lasting between ~1 and ~4 Myr after Solar System formation. This is most easily reconciled with the early and rapid growth of Jupiter’s core, inhibiting substantial exchange of material from inside and outside its orbit. Here, the growth and migration of Jupiter also led to the later implantation of CC bodies into the inner Solar System and, therefore, can explain the co-occurrence of NC and CC bodies in the asteroid belt, and the delivery of volatile and water-rich CC bodies to the terrestrial planets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Expanding-box Quasilinear Model of the Solar Wind

The expanding-box model of the solar wind has been adopted in the literature within the context of magnetohydrodynamics, hybrid, and full particle-in-cell simulations to investigate the dynamic evolution of the solar wind. The present paper extends such a method to the framework of self-consistent quasilinear kinetic theory. It is shown that the expanding-box quasilinear methodology is largely equivalent to the inhomogeneous steady-state quasilinear model discussed earlier in the literature, but a distinction regarding the description of wave dynamics between the two approaches is also found. The expanding-box quasilinear formalism is further extended to include the effects of a spiraling solar-wind magnetic field as well as collisional age effects. The present finding shows that the expanding-box quasilinear approach and the steady-state global-kinetic models may be employed interchangeably in order to address other more complex problems associated with the solar-wind dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Photocarrier and Gas Dynamics to Rationally Design Heterostructured Nanocatalysts for Solar CO 2 Conversion

Recent research in CO 2 photocatalysis has largely focused on exploring new catalysts; however, details of how these materials work often remain unclear. Knowledge of these processes will allow one to rationally design highly efficient catalysts for solar CO 2 conversion. This project aims to develop new techniques and establish new capabilities in SRNL to enable the study of photocatalysts and other materials in extreme detail. In FY21, we developed two new in situ techniques that are unique to SRNL, allowing the study of reaction intermediates and adsorbed gases during photocatalysis. We also established new in-house capabilities for catalyst synthesis and transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy, which enables the study of very short-lived excited states on photocatalysts. These capabilities will be used extensively for this project and in other current projects relevant to clean energy technologies such as photovoltaic cells, providing a good return on investment in the coming years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anion and Cation Migration at 2D/3D Halide Perovskite Interfaces

Here, this study explores the ionic dynamics in 2D/3Dperovskite solar cells, which are known for their improved efficiency and stability. The focus is on the impact of halide choice in 3D perovskites treated with phenethylammonium halide salts (PEAX, X = Br and I). Our findings reveal that light and heat drive ionic migration in these structures, with PEA + species diffusing into the 3D film in PEABr-treated samples. Mixed-halide 3D perovskites show halide interdiffusion, with bromine migrating to the surface and iodine diffusing into the film. Cathodoluminescence microscopy reveals localized 2Dphases on the 3D perovskite, which become more evenly distributed after thermal treatment. Both PEAX salts enhance the performance of photovoltaic devices. This improvement is attributed to the passivation capabilities of the salts themselves and their respective Ruddlesden–Popper (RP) phases. Annealed PEAI-treated devices show a better balance between efficiency and statistical distribution of photovoltaic parameters.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗