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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Long and Short Term Geomagnetic Prediction (Chapter 19)

Prediction of geomagnetic variability depends on the accuracy of geomagnetic field modeling, dynamical modeling of source regions that contribute to geomagnetic signals, and advanced assimilation algorithms that combine effectively the results of geomagnetic field and dynamic models to make accurate estimates of the dynamic states of the sources and, therefore, accurate forecast of geomagnetic variations. In this chapter we provide an overview of recent research efforts in these three research areas, focusing primarily on geomagnetic variations from the dynamic outer core and from solar and lunar tidal effects, but also including a review of relevant research results and developments. Prediction of weak but periodic tidal phenomena, and of strong but chaotic secular variation (SV) showcases two very important new developments which will lead to new opportunities in geomagnetic research and application.

Weijia Kuang↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fuzzy operators and cyclic behavior in formal neuronal networks

Formal neuronal networks (FNN), which are comprised of threshold gates, make use of the unit step function. It is regarded as a degenerated distribution function (DDF) and will be referred to here as a non-fuzzy threshold operator (nFTO). Special networks of this kind generating long cycles of states are modified by introduction of fuzzy threshold operators (FTO), i.e., non-degenerated distribution functions (nDDF). The cyclic behavior of the new nets is compared with the original ones. The interconnection matrix and threshold values are not modified. It is concluded that the original long cycles change the fixed points and short cycles, and as the computer simulations demonstrate, the aperiodic motion that is associated with chaotic behavior appears. The emergence of the above changes depend on the steepness of the threshold operators.

Labos, E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Neptune's story

It is conjectured that Triton was captured from a heliocentric orbit as the result of a collision with what was then one of Neptune's regular satellites. The immediate post-capture orbit was highly eccentric. Dissipation due to tides raised by Neptune in Triton caused Triton's orbit to evolve to its present state in less than one billion years. For much of this time Triton was almost entirely molten. While its orbit was evolving, Triton cannibalized most of the regular satellites of Neptune and also perturbed Nereid, thus accounting for that satellite's highly eccentric and inclined orbit. The only regular satellites of Neptune that survived were those that formed well within 5 Neptune radii, and they move on inclined orbits as the result of chaotic perturbations forced by Triton.

Goldreich, P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic analysis of nonlinear rotor-housing systems

Nonlinear analysis methods are developed which will enable the reliable prediction of the dynamic behavior of the space shuttle main engine (SSME) turbopumps in the presence of bearing clearances and other local nonlinearities. A computationally efficient convolution method, based on discretized Duhamel and transition matrix integral formulations, is developed for the transient analysis. In the formulation, the coupling forces due to the nonlinearities are treated as external forces acting on the coupled subsystems. Iteration is utilized to determine their magnitudes at each time increment. The method is applied to a nonlinear generic model of the high pressure oxygen turbopump (HPOTP). As compared to the fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical integration methods, the convolution approach proved to be more accurate and more highly efficient. For determining the nonlinear, steady-state periodic responses, an incremental harmonic balance method was also developed. The method was successfully used to determine dominantly harmonic and subharmonic responses fo the HPOTP generic model with bearing clearances. A reduction method similar to the impedance formulation utilized with linear systems is used to reduce the housing-rotor models to their coordinates at the bearing clearances. Recommendations are included for further development of the method, for extending the analysis to aperiodic and chaotic regimes and for conducting critical parameteric studies of the nonlinear response of the current SSME turbopumps.

Noah, Sherif T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Dissipating Step Bunches during Crystallization under Transport Control

In studies of crystal formation by the generation and spreading of layers, equidistant step trains are considered unstable---bunches and other spatiotemporal patterns of the growth steps are viewed as ubiquitous. We provide an example to the opposite. We monitor the spatiotemporal dynamics of steps and the resulting step patterns during crystallization of the proteins ferritin and apoferritin using the atomic force microscope. The variations in step velocity and density are not correlated, indicating the lack of a long-range attraction between the steps. We show that (i) because of its coupling to bulk transport, nucleation of new layers is chaotic and occurs at the facet edges, where the interfacial supersaturation is higher; (ii) step bunches self-organize via the competition for supply from the solution; and, (iii) bunches of weakly interacting steps decay as they move along the face. Tests by numerical modeling support the conclusions about the mechanisms underlying our observations. The results from these systems suggest that during crystallization controlled by transport, with weakly or noninteracting growth steps, the stable kinetic state of the surface is an equidistant step train, and step bunches only arise during nucleation of new layers. Since nucleation only occurs at a few sites on the surface, the surface morphology may be controllably patterned or smoothened by locally controlling nucleation.

Lin, Hong↗
NASA NTRS1997

Rotordynamics on the PC: Further Capabilities of ARDS

Rotordynamics codes for personal computers are now becoming available. One of the most capable codes is Analysis of RotorDynamic Systems (ARDS) which uses the component mode synthesis method to analyze a system of up to 5 rotating shafts. ARDS was originally written for a mainframe computer but has been successfully ported to a PC; its basic capabilities for steady-state and transient analysis were reported in an earlier paper. Additional functions have now been added to the PC version of ARDS. These functions include: 1) Estimation of the peak response following blade loss without resorting to a full transient analysis; 2) Calculation of response sensitivity to input parameters; 3) Formulation of optimum rotor and damper designs to place critical speeds in desirable ranges or minimize bearing loads; 4) Production of Poincard plots so the presence of chaotic motion can be ascertained. ARDS produces printed and plotted output. The executable code uses the full array sizes of the mainframe version and fits on a high density floppy disc. Examples of all program capabilities are presented and discussed.

Fleming, David P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Comparisons of the hydraulics of water flows in Martian outflow channels with flows of similar scale on earth

The hydraulics of channelized water flows on Mars and the resulting sediment transport rates are calculated, and similar computations are performed for such terrestrial analogs as the Mississippi River and the catastrophic Lake Missoula floods that formed the Channeled Scabland in eastern Washington State. The morphologies of deep-sea channels formed by catastrophic turbidity currents are compared with the Martian channels, many similarities are pointed out, and the hydraulics of the various flows are compared. The results indicate that the velocities, discharges, bottom shear stresses, and sediment-transport capacity of water flows along the Martian channels would be comparable to those of the oceanic turbidity currents and the Lake Missoula floods. It is suggested that the submarine canyons from which turbidity currents originate are the terrestrial counterparts to the chaotic-terrain areas or craters that serve as sources for many of the Martian channels.

Komar, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Chaos in the Solar System

The physical basis of chaos in the solar system is now better understood: In all cases investigated so far, chaotic orbits result from overlapping resonances. Perhaps the clearest examples are found in the asteroid belt. Overlapping resonances account for its kirkwood gaps and were used to predict and find evidence for very narrow gaps in the outer belt. Further afield, about one new "short-peroid" comet is discovered each year. They are believed to come from the "Kuiper Belt" (at 40 AU or more) via chaotic orbits produced by mean-motion and secular resonances with Neptune. Finally, the planetary system itself is not immune from chaos. In the inner solar system, overlapping secular resonances have been identified as the possible source of chaos. For example, Mercury in 1012 years, may suffer a close encounter with Venus or plunge into the Sun. In the outer solar system, three-body resonances have been identified as a source of chaos, but on an even longer time scale of 109 times the age of the solar system. On the human time scale, the planets do follow their orbits in a stately procession, and we can predict their trajectories for hundreds of thousands of years. That is because the mavericks, with shorter instability times, have long since been ejected. The solar system is not stable; it is just old!

Lecar, Myron↗
NASA NTRS1976

Spectroscopic far ultraviolet observations of transition zone instabilities and their possible role in a pre-flare energy build-up

Highly flare-productive newly emerging active regions are characterized by numerous small low-lying loops which frequently show a chaotic pattern. Flare activity in such a region subsides as the chaotic loop structures relax and expand into a bipolar configuration. The transition zone in such an active region is highly unstable, as shown by broadened and shifted nonthermal line profiles of medium-ionized elements like Si III, Si IV, and C IV. These transition-zone instabilities, which occur as isolated events in active regions of low flare productivity, are often observed prior to flares. Transition-zone instabilities can be traced to the footpoints of active loops and seem to be accompanied by heating of the loop. The loops vary in size and show differing degrees of activity, with the brightest and most compact ones seemingly being in a pre-flare state which results in the catastrophic energy release along the loop during a flare.

Brueckner, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The relation between ferroelasticity and superconductivity

The high-temperature superconductivity is explained widely by the layered crystal structure. The one- and two-dimensional subsystems and their interaction are investigated here. It is assumed that the high-T(sub c) superconductivity takes place in the two-dimensional subsystem and the increase of the phase transition temperature from 60 K up to 90 K is the consequence of turning on the influence of one-dimensional chains. The interaction between the two subsystems is transferred along the c axis by the phonons of breathing mode, which causes the hybridization of the electronic bonds between these subsystems. The experimental works indicate that the existence of both the chains Cu(1)-O and their interaction with the superconducting plane of Cu(2)-O modify the temperature of the transition to the superconducting state. It is seen from the neutron scattering data that the rates of the interatomic distance dependencies on temperature are changed around 140 K and 90 K. The 'zig-zag' order in Cu(1)-O chains has been postulated but, on the other hand, the vibrations with a large amplitude only were reported. The bi-stabilized situation of the oxygen ions can be caused by the change of distance between these ions and the Ba ions. It leads to the appearance of a two-well potential. Its parameters depend on temperature and the dynamics of the oxygen ions' movement. They can induce the antipolar order, which can be, however, more or less chaotic. The investigation of the ferroelastic properties of Y-Ba-Cu-O samples lead to the conclusion that they are related to jumps of ions inside the given chain and not to a diffusion between different sites in the ab plane. Researchers deduce thus that the fluctuating oxygen ions from these chains create dipoles in the ab plane. They can be described with the pseudo-spin formalism/ - Pauli matrices/. The system can be described with the Ising model. The pseudo-spins interact with phonons and influence the superconductivity in the second subsystem.

Molak, A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The relation between ferroelasticity and superconductivity

The high-temperature superconductivity is explained widely by the layered crystal structure. The one- and two-dimensional subsystems and their interaction are investigated here. It is assumed that the high-T(sub c) superconductivity takes place in the two-dimensional subsystem and the increase of the phase transition temperature from 60 K up to 90 K is the consequence of turning on the influence of one-dimensional chains. The interaction between the two subsystems is transferred along the c axis by the phonons of breathing mode, which causes the hybridization of the electronic bonds between these subsystems. The experimental works indicate that the existence of both the chains Cu(1)-O and their interaction with the superconducting plane of Cu(2)-O modify the temperature of the transition to the superconducting state. It is seen from the neutron scattering data that the rates of the interatomic distance dependencies on temperature are changed around 240 K and 90 K. The 'zig-zag' order in Cu(1)-O chains has been postulated but, on the other hand, the vibrations with a large amplitude only were reported. The bi-stabilized situation of the oxygen ions can be caused by the change of distance between these ions and the Ba ions. It leads to the appearance of a two-well potential. Its parameters depend on temperature and the dynamics of the oxygen ions' movement. They can induce the antipolar order, which can be, however, more or less chaotic. The investigation of the ferroelastic properties of Y-Ba-Cu-O samples lead to the conclusion that they are related to jumps of ions inside the given chain and not to a diffusion between different sites in the ab plane. Researchers deduce, thus, that the fluctuating oxygen ions from these chains create dipoles in the ab plane. They can be described with the pseudo-spin formalism (- Pauli matrices). The system can be described with the Ising model. The pseudo-spins interact with phonons and influence the superconductivity in the second subsystem.

Molak, A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Direct numerical simulation of sheared turbulent flow

The summer assignment to study sheared turbulent flow was divided into three phases which were: (1) literature survey, (2) computational familiarization, and (3) pilot computational studies. The governing equations of fluid dynamics or Navier-Stokes equations describe the velocity, pressure, and density as functions of position and time. In principle, when combined with conservation equations for mass, energy, and thermodynamic state of the fluid a determinate system could be obtained. In practice the Navier-Stokes equations have not been solved due to the nonlinear nature and complexity of these equations. Consequently, the importance of experiments in gaining insight for understanding the physics of the problem has been an ongoing process. Reasonable computer simulations of the problem have occured as the computational speed and storage of computers has evolved. The importance of the microstructure of the turbulence dictates the need for high resolution grids in extracting solutions which contain the physical mechanisms which are essential to a successful simulation. The recognized breakthrough occurred as a result of the pioneering work of Orzag and Patterson in which the Navier-Stokes equations were solved numerically utilizing a time saving toggling technique between physical and wave space, known as a spectral method. An equally analytically unsolvable problem, containing the same quasi-chaotic nature as turbulence, is known as the three body problem which was studied computationally as a first step this summer. This study was followed by computations of a two dimensional (2D) free shear layer.

Harris, Vascar G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Non-linear dynamic analysis of geared systems, part 2

A good understanding of the steady state dynamic behavior of a geared system is required in order to design reliable and quiet transmissions. This study focuses on a system containing a spur gear pair with backlash and periodically time-varying mesh stiffness, and rolling element bearings with clearance type non-linearities. A dynamic finite element model of the linear time-invariant (LTI) system is developed. Effects of several system parameters, such as torsional and transverse flexibilities of the shafts and prime mover/load inertias, on free and force vibration characteristics are investigated. Several reduced order LTI models are developed and validated by comparing their eigen solution with the finite element model results. Several key system parameters such as mean load and damping ratio are identified and their effects on the non-linear frequency response are evaluated quantitatively. Other fundamental issues such as the dynamic coupling between non-linear modes, dynamic interactions between component non-linearities and time-varying mesh stiffness, and the existence of subharmonic and chaotic solutions including routes to chaos have also been examined in depth.

Singh, Rajendra↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transferring Knowledge from Observations and Models to Decision Makers: An Overview and Challenges

Over the last 25 years, a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such US, European Community, Japan, China and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching to public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, security, air quality and public health can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This paper surveys and examines a number such applications in terms of their architecture, maturity and economic applicability as they apply to the societal needs. A detailed analysis is also presented of various challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information. This paper also makes attempts to address this topic and discuss possible approaches to deal with this quandary.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2010

Utilizing Earth Observations for Societal Issues

Over the last four decades a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such as the US, European Community, Japan, China, Russia, India has and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching the public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as water resources and availability, energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, air quality and public health, which can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This presentation discusses a process to transition Earth science data and products for societal needs including NASA's experience in achieving such objectives. It is important to mention that there are many challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information.

Habib, Shahid↗