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Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits Derived Using Sensitivity/Uncertainty Tools: Case Studies of U233-SOL-THERM-001-001, MIX-COMP-THERM-001-001, IEU-MET-FAST-002-001, LEU-COMP-THERM-001-001, LEU-SOL-THERM-004-001

Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. Whisper-1.0 was originally developed in 2014 and used to assist with nuclear criticality safety validation at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Whisper was upgraded in 2016 to Whisper-1.1 and prepared for release with MCNP6.2 [References 3-5]. Whisper contains a library of over 1100 critical experiment benchmarks and quantifies neutronic similarity of an application to benchmarks in the library. Using highest similarity benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin (CM) encompassing of the worst-case bias and bias uncertainty at a 99% confidence level for each application. In addition, portions of the margin of subcriticality (MOS) for nuclear data uncertainty and potential code errors are computed. The baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) computed by Whisper is comprised of the CM, MOS nuclear data , and MOS code errors . The Whisper baseline USL is absent a portion of the MOS due to the area of application, which is applied based upon judgment by the criticality safety analyst. An objective of this paper is to present the baseline USL, CM and portions of the MOS as computed by Whisper for comparison with similar sensitivity/uncertainty tools, such as those used by IRSN and ORNL. An initial comparison involved four critical experiment benchmarks: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOLTHERM-001-008, PU-MET-FAST-022-001, AND PU-SOL-THERM-001-001, which have been documented in References 10-13. This study extends the comparison to include cases U233-SOL-THERM-001-001, MIX-COMP-THERM-001-001, IEU-MET-FAST-002-001, LEU-COMP-THERM-001-001, LEU-SOL-THERM- 004-001.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. III. Cosmological Zoom-in Simulation of a Milky Way–mass Halo

In this work, we present a suite of high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations to z = 4 of a 10 12 M⊙ halo at z = 0, obtained using seven contemporary astrophysical simulation codes (Art-I, Enzo, Ramses, Changa, Gadget-3, Gear, and Gizmo) widely used in the numerical galaxy formation community. The physics prescriptions for gas cooling and heating and star formation are the same as the ones used in our previous Assembling Galaxies of Resolved Anatomy (AGORA) disk comparison but now account for the effects of cosmological processes such as the expansion of the universe, intergalactic gas inflow, and the cosmic ultraviolet background radiation emitted by massive stars and quasars. In this work, we introduce the most careful comparison yet of galaxy formation simulations run by different code groups, together with a series of four calibration steps each of which is designed to reduce the number of tunable simulation parameters adopted in the final run. In the first two steps, we methodically calibrate the gas physics, such as cooling and heating, in simulations without star formation. In the third step, we seek agreement on the total stellar mass produced with the common star formation prescription used in the AGORA disk comparison, in stellar-feedback-free simulations. In the last calibration step, we activate stellar feedback, where each code group is asked to set the feedback prescription to as close to the most widely used one in its code community as possible, while aiming for convergence in the stellar mass at z = 4 to the values predicted by semiempirical models. After all the participating code groups successfully complete the calibration steps, we achieve a suite of cosmological simulations with similar mass assembly histories down to z = 4. With numerical accuracy that resolves the internal structure of a target halo (≲100 physical pc at z = 4), we find that the codes overall agree well with one another, e.g., in gas and stellar properties, but also show differences, e.g., in circumgalactic medium (CGM) properties. We argue that, if adequately tested in accordance with our proposed calibration steps and common parameters, high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations can have robust and reproducible results. New code groups are invited to join and enrich this comparison by generating equivalent models or to test the code's compatibility on their own, by adopting the common initial conditions, the common easy-to-implement physics package, and the proposed calibration steps. Further analyses of the zoom-in simulations presented here will be presented in forthcoming reports from the AGORA Collaboration, including studies of the CGM, simulations by additional codes, and results at lower redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗

A comparison of eight optimization methods applied to a wind farm layout optimization problem

Abstract. Selecting a wind farm layout optimization method is difficult. Comparisons between optimization methods in different papers can be uncertain due to the difficulty of exactly reproducing the objective function. Comparisons by just a few authors in one paper can be uncertain if the authors do not have experience using each algorithm. In this work we provide an algorithm comparison for a wind farm layout optimization case study between eight optimization methods applied, or directed, by researchers who developed those algorithms or who had other experience using them. We provided the objective function to each researcher to avoid ambiguity about relative performance due to a difference in objective function. While these comparisons are not perfect, we try to treat each algorithm more fairly by having researchers with experience using each algorithm apply each algorithm and by having a common objective function provided for analysis. The case study is from the International Energy Association (IEA) Wind Task 37, based on the Borssele III and IV wind farms with 81 turbines. Of particular interest in this case study is the presence of disconnected boundary regions and concave boundary features. The optimization methods studied represent a wide range of approaches, including gradient-free, gradient-based, and hybrid methods; discrete and continuous problem formulations; single-run and multi-start approaches; and mathematical and heuristic algorithms. We provide descriptions and references (where applicable) for each optimization method, as well as lists of pros and cons, to help readers determine an appropriate method for their use case. All the optimization methods perform similarly, with optimized wake loss values between 15.48 % and 15.70 % as compared to 17.28 % for the unoptimized provided layout. Each of the layouts found were different, but all layouts exhibited similar characteristics. Strong similarities across all the layouts include tightly packing wind turbines along the outer borders, loosely spacing turbines in the internal regions, and allocating similar numbers of turbines to each discrete boundary region. The best layout by annual energy production (AEP) was found using a new sequential allocation method, discrete exploration-based optimization (DEBO). Based on the results in this study, it appears that using an optimization algorithm can significantly improve wind farm performance, but there are many optimization methods that can perform well on the wind farm layout optimization problem, given that they are applied correctly.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Space shuttle: A comparison of wind tunnel facility data on the 040A space shuttle orbiter configuration

A series of comparisons made on the longitudinal and lateral directional stability and control characteristics of the baseline 040A space shuttle orbiter configuration is documented. The data used for the comparisons were obtained from five wind tunnel tests conducted in four different wind tunnel facilities. The media for comparison were the aerodynamic slope values plotted as a function of Mach number for the different facilities. The slopes were computed using the SADSAC system and have been reduced relative to a common reference system. Data used for the comparison were selected based on a common baseline configuration. Identical configurations were available in all cases except MSFC 551 where an off-baseline vertical tail was tested. Some of the factors considered in comparing the various data were balance operating ranges and sensitivities, Reynolds number differences, scaling effects and control deflection accuracies.

Gyorfi, R. A.↗

A comparison between theory and experiments on non-linear three-wave interactions in plasmas

Quantitative comparisons between theory and experiments on non-linear three-wave interactions in a nearly homogeneous plasma are presented in this paper. First, the theoretical spatial behaviour of signal and idler waves excited by a large amplitude pump wave is predicted, with damping of all waves included. These results are then specialized to allow detailed quantitative comparisons to be made with available experimental data on parametrically excited ion-acoustic waves. Where good agreement is obtained, the comparison indicates further measurements required to verify more completely the basic theory of three-wave interactions in plasmas. Where wide disagreement is obtained, the comparison indicates possible directions in which the theory might be improved.

Peng, Y.-K. M.↗

Comparisons between wave directional spectra from SAR and pressure sensor arrays

Simultaneous directional wave measurements were made at Torrey Pines Beach, California, by a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and a linear array of pressure sensors. The measurements were conducted during the West Coast Experiment in March 1977. Quantitative comparisons of the normalized directional spectra from the two systems were made for wave periods of 6.9-17.0 s. The comparison results were variable but generally showed good agreement of the primary mode of the normalized directional energy. An attempt was made to quantify the physical criteria for good wave imaging in the SAR. A frequency band analysis of wave parameters such as band energy, slope, and orbital velocity did not show good correlation with the directional comparisons. It is noted that absolute values of the wave height spectrum cannot be derived from the SAR images yet and, consequently, no comparisons of absolute energy levels with corresponding array measurements were intended.

Pawka, S. S.↗

An integrated transportation and operations comparison of space and ground based OTV's

This paper presents the results of a comparison of space vs. ground basing of orbital transfer vehicles (OTV). The comparison was done assuming an 11-year mission model beginning in 1995 and averaging over 100 MT of payloads per year to GEO. When analyzed from a total transportation standpoint, the launch system employed had the greatest impact on the basing mode comparison. A launch fleet consisting of both a basic STS and a Shuttle derivative cargo vehicle provided the least cost. Only a small advantage (3%) was found in flight performance for the space based (SB) OTV once it incorporated the necessary provisions for space debris protection and on-orbit maintenance. Propellant storage and transfer losses associated with the SB OTV amounted to 12% of the actual flight propellant requirement. Turnaround of the SB OTV required a crew of 3 and 40% duty cycle. The life cycle cost comparison including all involved space elements indicated less than a 10% difference between basing modes. The SB OTV however is judged to provide more flexibility in launch manifesting, simplified recovery operations and greater potential for improvement.

Davis, E. E.↗

A preliminary comparison between the SR-6 propeller noise in flight and in a wind tunnel

High speed turboprops offer an attractive candidate for aircraft because of their high propulsive efficiency. However, one of the possible problems associated with these propellers is their high noise level at cruise condition that may create a cabin environment problem. Models of these propellers were tested for acoustics in the 8 by 6-foot wind tunnel and on the Jet Star airplane. Comparisons between the airplane and wind tunnel data for the SR-6 propeller are shown. The comparison of maximum blade passing tone variation with helical tip Mach number between the tunnel and flight data was good when corrected to the same test conditions. Directivity comparisons also showed fairly good agreement. These good comparisons indicate that the wind tunnel is a viable location for measuring the blade passage tone noise of these propellers.

Dittmar, J. H.↗

SAGE - European ozonesonde comparison

Between February and December 1979, 30 correlative comparisons were conducted of ozone profiles derived from the satellite sensor SAGE and those derived from balloon-borne ozonesondes launched in Europe. The mean absolute differences between SAGE and the European sondes when ozone mixing ratio is used as the basis of comparison are listed, and ozone comparisons made at four stations in Europe are plotted as ozone mixing ratio versus altitude. The agreement is considered quite reasonable. Also shown is an April 2, 1979 Garmisch comparison where the time and space differences were very small. The agreement is found to be remarkable. For example, the ratio of SAGE to ozonesonde values at 13 out of 17 levels between 12.5 and 28.5 km lies in the range 0.92-1.06.

Reiter, R.↗

A Comparison of the Bounded Derivative and the Normal Mode Initialization Methods Using Real Data

Browning et al. (1980) proposed an initialization method called the bounded derivative method (BDI). They used analytical data to test the new method. Kasahara (1982) theoretically demonstrated the equivalence between BDI and the well known nonlinear normal mode initialization method (NMI). The purposes of this study are the extension of the application of BDI to real data and comparison with NMI. The unbalanced initial state (UBD) is data of January, 1979 OOZ which were interpolated from the adjacent sigma levels of the GLAS GCM to the 300 mb surface. The global barotropic model described by Takacs and Balgovind (1983) is used. Orographic forcing is explicitly included in the model. Many comparisons are performed between various quantities. However, we only present a comparison of the time evolution at two grid points A(50 S, 90 E) and B(10 S, 20 E) which represent low and middle latitude locations. To facilitate a more complete comparison an initialization experiment based on the classical balance equation (CBE) was also included.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗

Comparison of two droplet sizing systems in an icing wind tunnel

A comparison between the Phase Doppler Analyzer and the combined measurements from the Particle Measuring Systems Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe and the Optical Array Probe was conducted in an icing wind tunnel using NASA Icing Research Tunnel spray nozzles to produce the icing cloud. Clouds with a range of volume median diameters from 10 to greater than 50 microns were used for the instrument comparisons. A comparison of the volume median diameter from the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer and only the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe indicated agreement up to 18 microns. A combined volume median diameter was calculated from the droplet distribution of the Optical Array Probe and the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe. A comparison of the combined volume median diameters and the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer volume median diameters showed agreement up to 30 microns with the agreement deteriorating rapidly above 30 microns. Droplet distributions from the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer, the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe, and Optical Array Probe are presented.

Oldenburg, J. R.↗

Comparison of drop size distributions from two droplet sizing systems

A comparison between the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer and the combined measurements from Particle Measuring Systems' Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe and the Optical Array Probe was conducted in an icing wind tunnel using NASA Icing Research Tunnel spray nozzles to produce the supercooled water droplet cloud. Clouds having a range of volume median diameters from 10 to greater than 50 microns were used for the instrument comparisons. A volume median diameter was calculated from combining the droplet distributions of the Optical Array Probe and the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe. A comparison of the combined volume median diameters and the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer volume median diameters showed agreement from 10 microns up to 30 microns. Typical drop size distributions from the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer, the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe, and Optical Array Probe are presented for several median volume diameters. A comparison of the distributions illustrates regions of the distributions where there is good agreement and other regions where there are discrepancies between the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer and the Particle Measuring Systems' droplet size instruments.

Oldenburg, John R.↗

Comparison of two droplet sizing systems in an icing wind tunnel

A comparison between the Phase Doppler Analyzer and the combined measurements from the Particle Measuring Systems Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe and the Optical Array Probe was conducted in an icing wind tunnel using NASA Icing Research Tunnel spray nozzles to produce the icing cloud. Clouds with a range of volume median diameterss from 10 to greater than 50 microns were used for the instrument comparisons. A comparison of the volume median diameter from the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer and only the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe indicated agreement up to 18 microns. A combined volume median diameter was calculated from the droplet distribution of the Optical Array Probe and the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe. A comparison of the combined volume median diameters and the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer volume median diameters showed agreement up to 30 microns with the agreement deteriorating rapidly above 30 microns. Droplet distributions from the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer, the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe, and Optical Array Probe are presented.

Oldenburg, John R.↗

Satellite/rocket ozone comparisons at Natal, Brazil

Comparisons are presented of satellite, rocket, and balloon ozone profiles near Natal, Brazil (5.9 deg S, 35.2 deg W). The low variability of stratospheric ozone at Natal during March and April of 1985 has allowed intercomparisons of reasonably large data sets, rather than a small number of paired satellite/in situ comparisons. There are sharp differences between the profile from the SBUV instrument on Nimbus 7 and the in situ measurements. These results support the conclusions of the NASA Ozone Trends Panel that there is an instrumental cause for the very large changes in upper stratospheric ozone seen by SBUV. Along with other comparisons, these results are being used in a reassessment of the SBUV instrument and its data reduction procedures. The agreement between the ozone profiles from the SAGE II instrument on the ERBS satellite and the rocket values is excellent over the full range of comparisons. Both SAGE II and ROCOZ-A must convert from altitude to pressure for intercomparisons with SME and with SBUV-type instruments. The conversion between pressure and altitude is as important as the ozone measurements, especially in the upper stratosphere where the scale height for ozone is approximately half that for pressure.

Barnes, Robert A.↗

Space Shuttle hypersonic flight research and the comparison to ground test results

Aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic comparisons between flight and ground test for the Space Shuttle at hypersonic speeds are discussed. All of the comparisons are taken from papers published by researchers active in the Space Shuttle program. The aerodynamic comparisons include stability and control derivatives, center-of-pressure location, and reaction control jet interaction. Comparisons are also discussed for various forms of heating including catalytic, boundary layer, top centerline, side fuselage, OMS pod, wing leading edge, and shock interaction. The jet interaction and center-of-pressure location flight values exceeded not only the predictions but the uncertainties of the predictions. Predictions were significantly exceeded for the heating caused by the vortex impingement on the OMS pods and for heating caused by the wing leading-edge shock interaction.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗

Space Shuttle hypersonic aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic flight research and the comparison to ground test results

Aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic comparisons between flight and ground test for the Space Shuttle at hypersonic speeds are discussed. All of the comparisons are taken from papers published by researchers active in the Space Shuttle program. The aerodynamic comparisons include stability and control derivatives, center-of-pressure location, and reaction control jet interaction. Comparisons are also discussed for various forms of heating, including catalytic, boundary layer, top centerline, side fuselage, OMS pod, wing leading edge, and shock interaction. The jet interaction and center-of-pressure location flight values exceeded not only the predictions but also the uncertainties of the predictions. Predictions were significantly exceeded for the heating caused by the vortex impingement on the OMS pods and for heating caused by the wing leading-edge shock interaction.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗