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DOE OSTI2019

Washington State Highway Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) (Technical Report)

The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) is a cooperative assessment of specific critical infrastructure within a designated geographic area and a regional analysis of the surrounding infrastructure that addresses a range of infrastructure resilience issues that could have regionally and nationally significant consequences. In 2017, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) sponsored the Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project in coordination with the Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD), Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), and other regional stakeholders. This project is focused on assessing the impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake on state transportation systems and, in particular, how those impacts may affect the ability of emergency response efforts to move supplies into the region. The intended outcome of this analysis is the prioritization of transportation routes and modes for additional planning, investment, hardening, or other activities to enhance their resilience - and therefore, to enhance their ability to support response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. An important part of this transportation system-level assessment has been to assess the seismic vulnerability of the state highway system. In doing so, the RRAP project team developed a Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) to assess, at a system-level, the potential impacts that a CSZ earthquake could have on state highway bridges. The first step in the BSST is to assess the seismic vulnerability of highway bridge infrastructure in Washington State following a CSZ earthquake to determine a projected or potential damage state. Damage states are then used to determine approximate reopening times for bridge crossings.2 This document provides details on the methodological development of the BSST, the implementation of that tool to analyze the projected damage incurred in a CSZ earthquake scenario, and the determination of corresponding reopening times of interstate and state highway bridges following such an event. The BSST was implemented programmatically using a Microsoft Excel macro-enabled workbook; instructions on use of this tool are provided in the accompanying report, Washington State Highway Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) - User Manual.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)

This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST), Version 2.0

The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) is a cooperative assessment of specific critical infrastructure within a designated geographic area and a regional analysis of the surrounding infrastructure that addresses a range of infrastructure resilience issues that could have regionally and nationally significant consequences. In 2018, DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) sponsored the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP project in coordination with the Office of the Governor (under the oversight of the state resilience officer), the Oregon Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), and other regional stakeholders (CISA 2021). This project focuses on assessing the impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake on state transportation systems and, in particular, how those impacts may affect the ability of emergency response efforts to move supplies into the region. The intended outcome of this analysis is the prioritization of transportation routes and modes for additional planning, investment, hardening, or other activities to enhance their resilience—and therefore, to enhance their ability to support response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. An important part of this transportation system-level assessment has been to assess the seismic vulnerability of the state highway system. In doing so, the RRAP project team used the Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) to assess, at a system-level, the potential impacts that a CSZ earthquake could have on state highway bridges (Bergerson et al. 2019).1 Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), in collaboration with the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), originally developed the BSST as part of the 2017 Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project, a sister project to the 2018 Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP project. Argonne updated the BSST during this more recent project in Oregon based on feedback from stakeholders and subject matter experts (SMEs) on the original version of the tool. The first step in the BSST is to assess the seismic vulnerability of roadway bridges following a CSZ earthquake to determine a projected or potential damage state. Damage states then help determine approximate reopening times for bridge crossings.2 This document provides details on the BSST methodology, the implementation of that tool to analyze the projected damage incurred in a CSZ earthquake scenario, and the determination of corresponding reopening times of interstate, state highway, and local bridges following such an event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

2021 Consequence Management Hotline Drill After Action Report

In March 2021, a functional area drill was held at the Remote Sensing Laboratory–Nellis that focused on using CBRNResponder and the Digital Field Monitoring (DFM) tablets for sample hotline operations and the new paper Sample Control Forms (SCFs) for sample collection. Participants included staff trained and billeted as sample control specialists and Consequence Management Response Team (CMRT) field monitoring personnel. Teams were able to successfully gather and transfer samples to the sample control hotline staff through the manual process, though there were several noted areas for improvement. In July and October 2021, two additional functional area drills were held at Sandia National Laboratories that focused on field sample collection and custody transfer at the sample control hotline for the Consequence Management (CM) Radiological Assistance Program (RAP) program. The overarching goal of the drills was to evaluate the current CM process for sample collection, sample drop off, and sample control using the CBRNResponder mobile and web-based applications. The July 2021 drill had an additional focus to have a subset of samples analyzed by the local analytical laboratory, Radiation Protection Sample Diagnostics (RPSD) laboratory, to evaluate the Laboratory Access portal on CBRNResponder. All three drills were able to accomplish their objectives however, there were several issues noted (Observations: 25 Urgent, 29 Important, and 22 Improvement Opportunities). The observations were prioritized according to their impact on the mission as well as categorized to align with the programmatic functional area required to address the issue. This report provides additional detail on each observation for skillset/program leads and software developers to consider for future improvement or mandatory efforts.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predictive Maturity of Multi-Scale Simulation Models for Fuel Performance

The project proposed to provide a Predictive Maturity Framework with its companion metrics that (1) introduce a formalized, quantitative means to communicate information between interested parties, (2) provide scientifically dependable means to claim completion of Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VU) activities, and (3) guide the decision makers in the allocation of Nuclear Energy’s resources for code development and physical experiments. The project team proposed to develop this framework based on two complimentary criteria: (1) the extent of experimental evidence available for the calibration of simulation models and (2) the sophistication of the physics incorporated in simulation models. The proposed framework is capable of quantifying the interaction between the required number of physical experiments and degree of physics sophistication. The project team has developed this framework and implemented it with a multi-scale model for simulating creep of a core reactor cladding. The multi-scale model is composed of the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) code at the meso-scale, which represents the visco-plastic behavior and changing properties of a highly anisotropic material and a Finite Element (FE) code at the macro-scale to represent the elastic behavior and apply the loading. The framework developed takes advantage of the transparency provided by partitioned analysis, where independent constituent codes are coupled in an iterative manner. This transparency allows model developers to better understand and remedy the source of biases and uncertainties, whether they stem from the constituents or the coupling interface by exploiting separate-effect experiments conducted within the constituent domain and integral-effect experiments conducted within the full-system domain. The project team has implemented this procedure with the multi- scale VPSC-FE model and demonstrated its ability to improve the predictive capability of the model. Within this framework, the project team has focused on optimizing resource allocation for improving numerical models through further code development and experimentation. Related to further code development, we have developed a code prioritization index (CPI) for coupled numerical models. CPI is implemented to effectively improve the predictive capability of the coupled model by increasing the sophistication of constituent codes. In relation to designing new experiments, we investigated the information gained by the addition of each new experiment used for calibration and bias correction of a simulation model. Additionally, the variability of ‘information gain’ through the design domain has been investigated in order to identify the experiment settings where maximum information gain occurs and thus guide the experimenters in the selection of the experiment settings. This idea was extended to evaluate the information gain from each experiment can be improved by intelligently selecting the experiments, leading to the development of the Batch Sequential Design (BSD) technique. Additionally, we evaluated the importance of sufficiently exploring the domain of applicability in experiment-based validation of high-consequence modeling and simulation by developing a new metric to quantify coverage. This metric has also been incorporated into the design of new experiments. Finally, we have proposed a data-aware calibration approach for the calibration of numerical models. This new method considers the complexity of a numerical model (the number of parameters to be calibrated, parameter uncertainty, and form of the model) and seeks to identify the number of experiments necessary to calibrate the model based on the level of sophistication of the physics. The final component in the project team’s work to improve model calibration and validation methods is the incorporation of robustness to non-probabilistic uncertainty in the input parameters. This is an improvement to model validation and uncertainty quantification stemming beyond the originally proposed scope of the project. We have introduced a new metric for incorporating the concept of robustness into experiment-based validation of numerical models. This project has accounted for the graduation of two Ph.D. students (Kendra Van Buren and Josh Hegenderfer) and two M.S. students (Matthew Egeberg and Parker Shields). One of the doctoral students is now working in the nuclear engineering field and the other one is a post-doctoral fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Additionally, two more Ph.D. students (Garrison Stevens and Tunc Kulaksiz) who are working towards graduation have been supported by this project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities

Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-principal element alloys for fast reactor cladding applications

Given the extensive list of multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) within literature and the overwhelming number of alloys that can be made from only a handful of elements, this article proposes a methodology for prioritizing alloys for use as cladding within advanced reactors. This paper applies neutronic, mechanical, and chemical assessments to a collection of MPEAs available within literature for use as advanced reactor cladding. The results are compared to a reference design of HT9, a ferritic/martensitic steel, for employed in sodium-cooled fast reactor. Mechanical assessments determined pressure limits for a thin-walled tube pressure boundary, thus relating the material's mechanical properties to a minimum acceptable wall thickness. Neutronic analyses reveal a maximum allowable wall thickness that a given material must meet to provide a level of neutronic economy that is equivalent to than that of HT9. Lastly, each alloying element is compared to typical fission products found in a fast reactor fuels to mitigate deleterious phenomena such as fuel-cladding chemical interactions (FCCI). These analyses indicate that Mo-Nb-Ti-V-based alloys are likely to be advantageous and that the inclusion of elements with a high neutronic penalty (e.g., Hf) could be considered with minimal consequences.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating biological nitrogen fixation via single-cell transcriptomics

The extensive use of nitrogen fertilizers has detrimental environmental consequences, and it is essential for society to explore sustainable alternatives. One promising avenue is engineering root nodule symbiosis, a naturally occurring process in certain plant species within the nitrogen-fixing clade, into non-leguminous crops. Advancements in single-cell transcriptomics provide unprecedented opportunities to dissect the molecular mechanisms underlying root nodule symbiosis at the cellular level. This review summarizes key findings from single-cell studies in Medicago truncatula, Lotus japonicus, and Glycine max. We highlight how these studies address fundamental questions about the development of root nodule symbiosis, including the following findings: (i) single-cell transcriptomics has revealed a conserved transcriptional program in root hair and cortical cells during rhizobial infection, suggesting a common infection pathway across legume species; (ii) characterization of determinate and indeterminate nodules using single-cell technologies supports the compartmentalization of nitrogen fixation, assimilation, and transport into distinct cell populations; (iii) single-cell transcriptomics data have enabled the identification of novel root nodule symbiosis genes and provided new approaches for prioritizing candidate genes for functional characterization; and (iv) trajectory inference and RNA velocity analyses of single-cell transcriptomics data have allowed the reconstruction of cellular lineages and dynamic transcriptional states during root nodule symbiosis.

Lotus japonicus↗

DOE OSTI2021

Survey of Cyber Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Nuclear Industry

Using traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods for severe accident safety risk management on non-digital systems, structures, and components at nuclear power plants is well-established. In contrast, cyber risk analysis of digital assets is still an immature field with unproven techniques due, in part, to the continuously changing threat environment and the challenge of digital assets failing in unexpected ways. As the nuclear fleet continues to adopt digital instrumentation and control systems, it is increasingly important to have effective and efficient cyber risk analysis techniques to support risk management decisions, such as risk elimination by system redesign or risk mitigation by implementation of prioritized security controls. To understand the state of the art in cyber risk analysis for future research, we surveyed 36 publications across ten application domains. We describe our survey methodology and rate each technique based upon scope, adoptability, and repeatability. In this work, we examine the unique constraints of the nuclear industry and outline the strengths and weaknesses of using the cyber risk analysis techniques in the industry, highlighting gaps with current techniques. We also discuss challenges and potential research directions for advancing the science for both existing and new advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Energy Cost Impact of Non-Residential Energy Code Requirements

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code contains 396 separate requirements applicable to non-residential buildings; however, there is no systematic analysis of the energy cost impact of each requirement. Consequently, limited code department budgets for plan review, inspection, and training cannot be focused on the most impactful items. An inventory and ranking of code requirements based on their potential energy cost impact is under development. The initial phase focuses on office buildings with simple HVAC systems in climate zone 4C. Prototype building simulations were used to estimate the energy cost impact of varying levels of non-compliance. A preliminary estimate of the probability of occurrence of each level of non-compliance was combined with the estimated lost savings for each level to rank the requirements according to expected savings impact. The methodology to develop and refine further energy cost impacts, specific to building type, system type, and climate location is demonstrated. As results are developed, an innovative alternative method for compliance verification can focus efforts so only the most impactful requirements from an energy cost perspective are verified for every building and a subset of the less impactful requirements are verified on a random basis across a building population. The results can be further applied in prioritizing training material development and specific areas of building official training.

code compliance↗

DOE OSTI2016

Energy Cost Impact of Non-Residential Energy Code Requirements

Energy Codes, code compliance↗

DOE OSTI2023

CRITICAL FUNCTION ASSURANCE: Understanding Critical Function and Critical Function Delivery is Foundational for Meaningful ICS Security Improvement and Policy Efforts

Modern life is enabled by a complex and interdependent web of critical functions, including energy, communications, transportation, food, and water. Automation has significantly reduced or replaced human interactions in the delivery of these functions, resulting in a web of goods and services that are made available 24/7 only through unique and intentional deployments of microprocessors, software, and firmware technologies. The prospect of cyber-enabled sabotage of these processes disrupts traditional risk determination models. Critical Function Assurance (CFA) is a foundational approach to identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the risk that is inherent in the delivery of critical functions that depend on digital technology. It provides rapid focus to what matters most and illuminates elements and areas of risk that otherwise are often overlooked. This focus enables effective application of available security resources and optimizes security strategy and policy efforts. This paper introduces CFA to decision makers and risk executives (including CEOs, COOs, CFOs, and CISOs) whose organizations support and deliver the critical functions that underpin national defense, societal health and safety, and a vibrant economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Generic HLW Repository In Bedded Salt In Germany: Emplacement Technologies and Repository Designs - 18288

In Germany, a new site selection act for a repository for HLW and SNF entered into force in July 2013 and was amended in spring 2017 [1]. It stipulates that the safety of repository systems for heat-generating radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel in different host rock formations be compared. This requires that generic repository concepts and adequate safety- and safety demonstration concepts for all potential host rock formations in Germany (salt, clay and crystalline rock) exist. For several decades, development of disposal concepts and safety analyses for a repository in a salt dome was prioritized while repository concepts for clay and crystalline rock have been taken into account for two decades only. So far, bedded salt formations have not been the subject of comparative investigations. Thus, in summer 2015, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) launched the R and D project KOSINA to develop repository designs and carry out safety analyses for different emplacement alternatives in a generic bedded salt formation and a generic salt pillow. KOSINA is an acronym for 'Concept development for a generic repository for heat-generating waste in bedded salt formations in Germany as well as development and testing of a safety and demonstration concept'. Together with its partners BGR, GRS, and IfG, DBE Technology GmbH has successfully carried out an almost three years lasting scientific programme, which will be concluded in April 2018. The core areas of the programme are the development of generic geologic models, including derivation of model parameters, the development of a safety and safety demonstration concept, the development of technical repository designs for four different emplacement alternatives, the analysis of geomechanical integrity, the evaluation of operational safety as well as the analysis of radiological consequences. An interim report, which compiles the basic data of the waste inventory, the repository design requirements, the data basis for geologic model developments, and the outline of a safety and safety demonstration concept, was already published in February 2016. The main achievements of the R and D project KOSINA are the development of four different repository designs, two per each generic geologic model (flat-bedded salt, salt pillow) based on thermomechanical calculations. This includes the implementation of a safety concept that provides containment of the radioactive materials with regard to the technical designs of waste packages, transport and emplacement technologies, and backfilling and sealing concepts. Furthermore, the integrity of the geologic barriers could be demonstrated for all four repository designs, and the long-term predictions showed no radiological releases during the demonstration period of one million years. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Nonconventional CO 2 -EOR Target in the Illinois Basin: Oil Reservoirs of the Thick Cypress Sandstone

The Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) identified and quantified nonconventional carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) target opportunities within the thick Cypress Sandstone in the Illinois Basin. Up to 60 m thick Cypress Sandstone bodies define a northeast-southwest fairway that is approximately 230 km long and 100 km wide across the central portion of the Illinois Basin. These sandstones commonly contain relatively thin oil reservoirs and were found to have associated underlying residual oil zones (ROZs). The presence of a thick brine aquifer underlying the ROZ and high vertical permeability results in characteristic low primary oil recovery caused by excessive brine production from the aquifer. Nonconventional CO 2 -EOR in these oil reservoirs are expected to require more CO 2 to produce a unit of oil compared to conventional CO 2 -EOR. Consequently, nonconventional CO 2 -EOR will have a higher storage component and offer a unique storage opportunity. An integrated approach of detailed site-specific geologic reservoir characterization, three-dimensional geocellular modeling, and reservoir simulation of multiple development cases at Noble Field was employed to determine development strategies for CO 2 -EOR and storage. The findings of Noble Field research were leveraged to assess the regional CO 2 -EOR and associated storage resource within the nonconventional reservoirs of the thick Cypress Sandstone in the Illinois Basin. Regional characterization shows that thick, multistory fluvial facies of the Cypress Sandstone exhibits porosity from 15% to 21% and horizontal and vertical permeability up to approximately 0.98 µm 2 (1,000 mD). Oil saturation indicators screened from well records and well log analyses were used to map 27 brownfield and greenfield ROZ prospects with residual oil saturation (S OR ) values ranging from 14 to 35%. ROZ thickness varies from 2.7 to 21.6 m (9 to 71 ft). The 27 Cypress Sandstone ROZ prospects have approximately 290.8 million m 3 (1.8 billion barrels) of oil in place. Specific CO 2 -EOR development strategies depend on the goals of the project (prioritizing EOR performance vs. storage performance and NCNO) and geologic setting (brownfield vs greenfield), and company’s business strategies (economic metrics). Nevertheless, applying two unique development strategies derived from reservoir simulation of the depleted main pay zone and ROZ in the Cypress Sandstone at Noble Field, 31.1 million m 3 (196 million barrels) of oil is estimated to be recoverable using the 80-acre blanket WAG development strategy (which favors EOR and economic metrics, but is carbon positive) whereas 21.3 million m 3 (144 million barrels) of oil is estimated to be recoverable using the 40-acre high CO 2 injection rate development strategy (which favors storage and economic metrics and results in net carbon negative oil production). Storage of CO 2 associated with EOR in these ROZ prospects alone, not accounting for associated main pay zones, underlying brine formation, or intervals adjacent to or between prospects, is estimated to be up to 10.4 billion tonnes using the latter development strategy.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2017

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of the Earth s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affects a myriad of land surface processes and our adaptation behaviors. We here review the status and major knowledge gaps of studying the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present eleven grand challenge areas for scientific research and adaptation communities in the coming decade: (1) collective and separate impacts of major land changes and the interactions with non-land-change factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase, (2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, (3) climatically relevant biospheric emissions such as aerosols, (4) water cycle, (5) agriculture, (6) urbanization, (7) gradual acclimation of plants, communities, and ecosystems to climate and environmental changes, (8) plant migration, (9) land use projections, (10) reduction of uncertainties in models and data, and finally (11) adaptation strategies. We conclude that we need to create and maintain a close cross-disciplinary coordination between measurements and process representation in models to analyze complex multi-facet interrelated perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes. Along with major scientific research thrusts, land-use and land cover change mitigation and adaptation assessments should be strengthened to identify barriers that need to be overcome, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision making processes work in specific contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Analytical imaging studies of the migration of degraded orpiment, realgar, and emerald green pigments in historic paintings and related conservation issues

Yellow orpiment (As 2 S 3 ) and red–orange realgar (As 4 S 4 ) photo-degrade and the nineteenth-century pigment emerald green (Cu(C 2 H 3 O 2 ) 2 ·3Cu(AsO 2 ) 2 ) degrades into arsenic oxides. Because of their solubility in water, arsenic oxides readily migrate and are found throughout the multi-layered paint system. The widespread arsenic migration has consequences for conservation, and this paper provides better insight into the extent of the problem. Five paint samples containing orpiment, realgar or emerald green pigments deriving from paintings by De Heem (17th C), Van Gogh (19th C), Rousseau (19th C), an unknown 17th C northern European artist and an Austrian painted cupboard (19th C) were investigated using SEM/EDX, imaging ATR-FTIR and arsenic (As) K–edge μ-XANES to obtain the spatial distribution and chemical speciation of arsenic in the paint system. In all of the samples investigated arsenic had migrated throughout the multi-layered paint structure of the art object, from support to varnish. Furthermore, As 5+ -species were found throughout the entire paint sample. We hypothesize that arsenic trioxide is first formed, dissolves in water, further oxidizes to arsenic pentaoxide, and then reacts with lead, calcium and other ions and is deposited in the paint system as insoluble arsenates. Since the degradation of arsenic pigments such as orpiment, realgar and emerald green occurs through a highly mobile intermediate stage, it not only affects the regions rich in arsenic pigments, but also the entire object, including substrate and top varnish layers. Furthermore, because of this widespread potential for damage, preventing degradation of arsenic pigments should be prioritized and conservators should minimize exposure of objects containing arsenic pigments to strong light, large fluctuations in relative humidity and water-based cleaning agents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

MoRE-Brain: Routed Mixture of Experts for Interpretable and Generalizable Cross-Subject fMRI Visual Decoding

Decoding visual experiences from fMRI offers a powerful avenue to understand human perception and develop advanced brain-computer interfaces. However, current progress often prioritizes maximizing reconstruction fidelity while overlooking interpretability, an essential aspect for deriving neuroscientific insight. To address this gap, we propose MoRE-Brain, a neuro-inspired framework designed for high-fidelity, adaptable, and interpretable visual reconstruction. MoRE-Brain uniquely employs a hierarchical Mixture-of-Experts architecture where distinct experts process fMRI signals from functionally related voxel groups, mimicking specialized brain networks. The experts are first trained to encode fMRI into the frozen CLIP space. A finetuned diffusion model then synthesizes images, guided by expert outputs through a novel dual-stage routing mechanism that dynamically weighs expert contributions across the diffusion process. MoRE-Brain offers three main advancements: First, it introduces a novel Mixture-of-Experts architecture grounded in brain network principles for neuro-decoding. Second, it achieves efficient cross-subject generalization by sharing core expert networks while adapting only subject-specific routers. Third, it provides enhanced mechanistic insight, as the explicit routing reveals precisely how different modeled brain regions shape the semantic and spatial attributes of the reconstructed image. Extensive experiments validate MoRE-Brain’s high reconstruction fidelity, with bottleneck analyses further demonstrating its effective utilization of fMRI signals, distinguishing genuine neural decoding from over-reliance on generative priors. Consequently, MoRE-Brain marks a substantial advance towards more generalizable and interpretable fMRI-based visual decoding.

Wei, Yuxiang [Georgia Institute of Technology]↗