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At least 91 records · Page 5

Longevity evaluation of SiC based alpha voltaic batteries with surface alpha sources

The alpha emitting actinide 241 Am is electrodeposited on the surface of the Pt electrode of in-house fabricated SiC Schottky diodes. With 17 nCi 241 Am directly coated on the top of a device, the 2-pi geometry yields a high energy (5.486 MeV) and a long-term irradiation accumulating to a high fluence (1.6 × 10 9 alpha particles’ infusion/month). The forward, reverse I/V, and dark current, are periodically measured to monitor key characteristics of device durability for any sign of degradation over time. The direct deposition of actinides on the surface of the device also enables the evaluation of radiation damage through alpha particles’ energy spectroscopic performance, which shows a clear spectrum degradation that can be reversed by optical excitation of the device prior to spectrum acquisition. As an analytical aide, the device performance is also simulated by Allpix 2 . Lastly, this study provides an insight into the durability of 4H-SiC as an energy converter option for alpha-voltaic batteries and the survivability in the other harsh environment found in nuclear fuel cycle, high energy physics, fission, fusion, and space exploration where rad-hard sensors are required.

Americium↗

Numerical Analysis of Fuel Effects on Advanced Compression Ignition Using a Cooperative Fuel Research Engine Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

Growing environmental concerns and demand for a better fuel economy are driving forces that motivate the research for more advanced engines. Multi-mode combustion strategies have gained attention for their potential to provide high thermal efficiency and low emissions for light-duty applications. These strategies target optimizing the engine performance by correlating different combustion modes to load operating conditions. The extension from boosted spark ignition (SI) mode at high loads to advanced compression ignition (ACI) mode at low loads can be achieved by increasing the compression ratio and utilizing intake air heating. Further, in order to enable an accurate control of intake charge condition for ACI mode and rapid mode-switches, it is essential to gain fundamental insights into the autoignition process. Within the scope of ACI, homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) mode is of significant interest. It is known for its potential benefits, operation at low fuel consumption, low NOx, and particulate matter (PM) emissions. In the present work, a virtual Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine model is used to analyze fuel effects on ACI combustion. In particular, the effect of fuel octane sensitivity (S) (at constant Research Octane Number (RON)) on autoignition propensity is assessed under beyond-RON (BRON) and beyond-MON (BMON) ACI conditions. The three-dimensional CFR engine computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model employs a finite-rate chemistry approach with a multi-zone binning strategy to capture autoignition. Two binary blends with Research Octane Number (RON) of 90 are chosen for this study: primary reference fuel (PRF) with S = 0 and toluene–heptane (TH) blend with S = 10.8, representing paraffinic and aromatic gasoline surrogates. Reduced mechanisms for these blends are generated from a detailed gasoline surrogate kinetic mechanism. Simulation results with the reduced mechanisms are validated against experimental data from an in-house CFR engine, with respect to in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, and combustion phasing. Thereafter, the sensitivity of combustion behavior to ACI operating condition (BRON versus BMON), air-fuel ratio (λ = 2 and 3), and engine speed (600 and 900 rpm) is analyzed for both fuels. It is shown that the sensitivity of a fuel’s autoignition characteristics to λ and engine speed significantly differs at BRON and BMON conditions. Moreover, this sensitivity is found to vary among fuels, despite the same RON. It is also observed that the presence of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) under BRON condition leads to more sequential autoignition and longer combustion duration than BMON condition. Finally, the study indicates that the octane index (OI) fails to capture the trend in the variation of autoignition propensity with S under the BMON condition.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

X-ray sources for in situ wavelength calibration of x-ray imaging crystal spectrometers

X-ray sources for a range of wavelengths are being considered for in situ calibration of X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectrometers (XICSs) and for monitoring line shifts due to changes in the crystal temperature, which can vary during experimental operation over a day [A. Ince-Cushman et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 79, 10E302 (2008), L. Delgado-Aparicio et al., Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 55, 125011 (2013)]. Such crystal temperature dependent shifts, if not accounted for, could be erroneously interpreted as Doppler shifts leading to errors in plasma flow-velocity measurements. The x-ray sources encompass characteristic x-ray lines falling within the wavelength range of 0.9–4.0 Å, relevant for the XICSs on present and future fusion devices. Several technological challenges associated with the development of x-ray sources for in situ calibration are identified and are being addressed in the design of multiple x-ray tubes, which will be installed inside the spectrometer housing of the XICS for the JT-60SA tokamak. These x-ray sources will be especially useful for in situ calibration between plasma discharges. Here, in this paper, laboratory experiments are described that were conducted with a Cu x-ray source, a heated quartz (102) crystal, and a pixelated Pilatus detector to measure the temperature dependent shifts of the Cu Kα 1 and Kα 2 lines at 1.5405 and 1.5443 Å, respectively, and to evaluate the 2d-lattice constant for the Bragg reflecting crystal planes as a function of temperature, which, in the case of in situ wavelength calibration, would have to be used for numerical analysis of the x-ray spectra from the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of an In Situ Fission Gas Release Instrument for Fuel Sample Irradiations in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Experimental measurement of gaseous fission product release with respect to temperature and burnup is a critical aspect of understanding nuclear fuel performance, validating predictive models, and qualifying new fuels. To measure this phenomenon in real-time, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has developed an instrument for measuring in situ fission gas release from small-scale fuel samples irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). The instrument uses a continuous flow of Heover the fuel samples to sweep gaseous fission products from a sealed capsule in the HFIR Be reflector to an instrument station adjacent to the reactor. The instrument station houses two high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors that measure decay gamma rays from fission products passing through a room temperature dwell chamber placed over the detector crystal. The sealed capsules in the reactor are designed to modulate fuel sample temperatures between 700 and 1,100°C by changing the Ar/He gas mixture surrounding the capsules during irradiation. N-type thermocouples are incorporated into the capsule housing to record real-time fuel temperatures. The capsules are heated primarily by prompt gamma rays emitted from the HFIR core with minimal heat contributions from fission in the fuel samples to minimize temperature gradients in the specimens for separate-effects characterization of the material. This paper describes modeling of time-dependent nuclear heating and fission product formation in fuel samples, thermal characteristics of the in-core capsules, and expected gaseous fission product gamma spectra at the HPGe instrument station.

Mulligan, Padhraic L [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025826540↗

Belowground respiration, root traits, and soil characteristics of an East Tennessee deciduous forest, 2019-2020

This dataset contains empirical physiological, morphological, and chemical data of root systems, and elemental, nutrient content for soils collected on forty individuals of eight temperate tree species, between June 2019 and July 2020 at The University of Tennessee Forest Research Center and Arboretum in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The project used a novel methodology to empirically derive estimates of the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of soil respiration in-situ. The project consists of two measurement approaches. The first set of measurements uses a standard approach for measuring specific root respiration on excised root systems. The second used “in-situ root trays” This dataset includes 10 data files in comma separate (*.csv) ASCII format. Data include measurements of leaf and root functional traits for excised root systems and for living root systems housed within in-situ root trays, data on soil carbon and nitrogen pools, in-situ measurements of soil moisture and temperature, data on soil respiration rates for in-situ root trays (both as soil mass-based fluxes, and soil-area based fluxes), and data on the geographic coordinates and tree sizes of study trees. Forty study trees of eight temperate tree species were studied (five individuals per species). Two in-situ root trays were installed per species, each housing one entire root system comprising < 3 root orders, and still being attached to the tree via transportive root. All respiration measurements were conducted with the Li-6800 portable photosynthesis system (Li-COR, Lincoln, NE, USA). Root respiration measurements of excised root tissues were made using the Li-6800 and the Walz 3010-GWK1 gas exchange chamber (Heinz Walz GmbH, Effeltrich, Germany). Root scan images were analyzed using WinRHIZO. These images are companion files to this dataset and are contained in two compressed (*.zip) folders. Additional metadata are provided: 10 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > VEGETATION > LEAF CHAR↗

Experimental studies of 1.5 – 1.6 μm high-power single-frequency semiconductor lasers

High-power semiconductor laser systems based on 1.5 – 1.6 μm single-frequency distributed feedback (DFB) lasers with a sidewall Bragg diffraction grating are developed and their current – voltage, light – current, and spectral characteristics are experimentally studied. The characteristics of conventional lasers with a Fabry – Perot cavity and DFB lasers fabricated from one and the same heterostructure are compared. At a pump current not exceeding 700 mA, a conventional laser with a cavity length of 1.6 mm and a mesa-stripe width of 3 μm emits a power no lower than 200 mW versus 150 mW of the DFB laser; both lasers are mounted in a housing 11 mm in diameter. The DFB laser mounted in a butterfly housing emits a power no lower than 100 mW at the exit of the single-mode cable at a pump current not exceeding 500 mA, which, at a 60 % coupling efficiency, corresponds to a power no lower than 165 mW; the side-mode suppression ratio in this case is no lower than 53 dB. It is shown that the wavelength deviation with changing pump current and temperature is almost an order of magnitude lower for the DFB laser than for the conventional laser. (paper)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

1998 Dallas-Fort Worth Travel Survey

The 1998 Dallas-Fort Worth House Travel Survey accomplished two main goals: updating existing data for the North Central Texas Council of Governments regional travel demand models and providing new data to permit the models to be upgraded. The survey encompassed households within the Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area of Dallas-Fort Worth. A total of 4,641 households provided complete information. The survey revealed households' travel behavior preference with the collection of information about household characteristics and travel using a unique "travel as an activity" approach.

1Hz data↗

Legacy of Metropolis continues through new materials donated to classified library collections

“From the very beginning of the Los Alamos project, it was inevitable that the Laboratory would suffer total immersion in computing,” said Nicholas Constantine Metropolis in 1976, reflecting his characteristic humor. Metropolis had succinctly summarized the prominent place of computing in Los Alamos’s mission and history. Metropolis himself played no small role in that “total immersion,” exemplified by the Lab’s supercomputing center, a postdoctoral fellowship, and the world-famous algorithm that carry his name. So does a collection of legacy materials in the National Security Research Center (NSRC). The NSRC, the Lab’s classified library, which also houses unclassified artifacts, recently received a new addition to the Metropolis Collections. This donation, 22 years after his death on October 17, 1999, provides tangible evidence of Metropolis’s continuing legacy at Los Alamos.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

1999 Dallas-Fort Worth Travel Survey

The 1999 Dallas-Fort Worth House Travel Survey accomplished two main goals: updating the existing data for the North Central Texas Council of Governments regional travel demand models and providing new data to permit the models to be upgraded. The survey encompassed households within the Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area of Dallas-Fort Worth. A total of 4,641 households provided complete information. The survey revealed households' travel behavior preference with the collection of information about household characteristics and travel using a unique "travel as an activity" approach.

1Hz data↗

Enabling Bipolar Membrane Manufacturing Using Microscopy

Bipolar membranes (BPMs) used for water treatment suffer from interface instabilities, causing premature failure and decreased performance. Recent research has highlighted the impacts of membrane morphology on mechanical behavior and performance. Improved material performance of thin film membranes requires enhanced transport properties coupled with better control of the mechanical characteristics to avoid premature failure of the film. Thus, morphology is a key parameter when developing and evaluating novel membrane materials. Microscopy offers unique advantages for nano-scale characterization of thin film membrane interfaces and morphologies. In this study, the interface junction of BPMs was evaluated using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). BPMs were fabricated using (1) hot pressing lamination, (2) bench-scale solution casting, and (3) roll-to-roll sequential casting (R2R). Both commercial and in-house fabricated ion exchange membranes were used in the BPMs. The BPMs were comprised of a cation exchange membrane and an anion exchange membrane with a catalyst layer sandwiched in between. Cross sectional SEM and EDX images of the membrane interface junction were compared among the different fabrication techniques and materials. The bench cast catalyst layers were nonuniform compared to the R2R and hot pressed membranes, demonstrating the importance of precise catalyst application conditions. Different thicknesses of the BPMs and individual membrane layers revealed that polymer solution concentration needs to be optimized during manufacturing. This work shows that microscopy can identify key processing parameters that affect BPM interface junction quality at the microscale to enable manufacturing of high performance BPMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enabling Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing of Bipolar Membranes Using Microscopy

Bipolar membranes (BPMs) used for water treatment suffer from interface instabilities, causing premature failure and decreased performance. Recent research has highlighted the impacts of membrane morphology on mechanical behavior and performance. Improved material performance of thin film membranes requires enhanced transport properties coupled with better control of the mechanical characteristics to avoid premature failure of the film. Thus, morphology is a key parameter when developing and evaluating novel membrane materials. Microscopy offers unique advantages for nano-scale characterization of thin film membrane interfaces and morphologies. In this study, the interface junction of BPMs was evaluated using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). BPMs were fabricated using (1) hot pressing lamination, (2) bench-scale solution casting, and (3) roll-to-roll sequential casting (R2R). Both commercial and in-house fabricated ion exchange membranes were used in the BPMs. The BPMs were comprised of a cation exchange membrane and an anion exchange membrane with a catalyst layer sandwiched in between. Cross sectional SEM and EDX images of the membrane interface junction were compared among the different fabrication techniques and materials. The bench cast catalyst layers were nonuniform compared to the R2R and hot pressed membranes, demonstrating the importance of precise catalyst application conditions. Different thicknesses of the BPMs and individual membrane layers revealed that polymer solution concentration needs to be optimized during manufacturing. This work shows that microscopy can identify key processing parameters that affect BPM interface junction quality at the microscale to enable manufacturing of high performance BPMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Conceptual Design of the Transformational Challenge Reactor

The Transformational Challenge Reactor is a 3-MW(thermal) helium-cooled experimental nuclear reactor designed using an additive manufacturing–informed agile design process. This design process leverages rapid prototyping and advanced materials from emerging additive manufacturing technologies, key characteristics that enable rapid design maturation. The resulting core design incorporates a blend of advanced reactor technologies into an intermediate-spectrum microreactor, including conventionally manufactured tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles in an advanced manufactured SiC fuel element and a solid yttrium hydride moderator encapsulated in steel. Matured during the design effort, these technologies are incorporated with additively manufactured steel support and fluidic structures to form a 75-cm-outer-diameter cylindrical active core region. Below and above the active core region are axial SiC reflectors, which are housed inside the reactor pressure vessel. The reactor is controlled with an annular shroud actuated external to the pressure vessel in the gap between the pressure vessel and a steel radial reflector. A safety rod is at the center of the core to shut down the reactor when necessary. Helium pressurized at 5 MPa is forced into the pressure vessel below the core and around the core to the top plenum before it is forced down through the axial reflectors and the active core region. The primary pressurized helium loop is operated up to 500°C and includes the pressure vessel, the circulator, and the hot side of a helium-to-air heat exchanger. The secondary loop rejects all heat from the primary loop to ambient air through a heat exchanger. A vented temporary confinement building contains the entire primary loop, with penetrations for a stack, cooling, and the secondary ambient air loop. Finally, this is the first advanced nuclear microreactor designed using additive manufacturing technologies, demonstrating their applicability in an accelerated advanced design process.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Time-Varying Model for Predicting Formaldehyde Emission Rates in Homes

Recent studies have succeeded in relating emissions of various volatile organic compounds to material mass diffusion transfer using detailed empirical characteristics of each of the individual emitting materials. While significant, the resulting models are often scenario specific and/or require a host of individual component parameters to estimate emission rates. This study developed an approach to estimate aggregated emissions rates based on a wide number of field measurements. We used a multi-parameter regression model based on previous mass transfer models to predict formaldehyde emission rate for a whole dwelling using field-measured, time-resolved formaldehyde concentrations, air exchange rates, and indoor environmental parameters in 63 California single-family houses built between 2011 and 2017. The resulting model provides time-varying formaldehyde emission rates, normalized by floor area, for each study home, assuming a well-mixed mass balance transport model of the home, and a well-mixed layer transport model of indoor surfaces. The surface layer model asserts an equilibrium concentration within the surface layer of the emitted materials that is a function of temperature and RH; the dwelling ventilation rate serves as a surrogate for indoor concentration. We also developed a more generic emission model that is suitable for broad prediction of emission for a population of buildings. This model is also based on measurements aggregated from 27 homes from the same study. We showed that errors in predicting household formaldehyde concentrations using this approach were substantially less than those using a traditional constant emission rate model, despite requiring less unique building information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-house synthesized poly(ether ether ketone) ionenes. I. ToF-SIMS spectra in the positive ion mode

Static time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) was performed for acquiring the high-resolution surface spectra of four types of synthesized imidazolium ionene membranes. These novel membranes have aromatic ether–ketone–ether linkages inspired by poly(ether ether ketone) (PEEK). The PEEK-ionenes synthesized for this study have imidazolium cations placed in the polymeric backbone with bistriflimide [Tf 2 N]- counterions. The attention given to synthetically modified PEEK derivatives, such as PEEK-ionenes, is considerable due to their ability to selectively capture CO 2 molecules and other light gases. Therefore, it is important to characterize the surface of these synthesized novel PEEK-ionenes. In this work, characteristic and unique peaks were identified in the positive spectra of each sample. The differences in mass spectra among the samples provide insights for optimizing or fine-tuning the PEEK-ionenes synthesis to achieve a high-performance CO 2 separation membrane with enhanced permeability, selectivity, and mechanical stability. The SIMS spectra and identified characteristic peaks of these synthesized ionenes will serve as a reference in the positive mode, complementing the corresponding spectra reported in the negative ion mode (Paper II).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Campylobacter isolates recovered from consecutively reused broiler litter

ABSTRACT Campylobacterinfections are a leading cause of bacterial diarrhea in humans globally. Infections are due to consumption of contaminated food products and are highly associated with chicken meat, with chickens being an important reservoir forCampylobacter. Here, we characterized the genetic diversity ofCampylobacter jejuni(C. jejuni) andCampylobacter coli(C. coli) detected in broiler chicken litter over three consecutive flocks and determined their antimicrobial resistance (ARM) and virulence factor (VF) profiles.Campylobacterwas detected in 9.38% (27/288) of litter samples collected. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole genome sequencing were performed onC. jejuni(n= 39) andC. coli(n= 5) isolates.Campylobactervirulence factors differed within and across broiler houses but were explained by the broiler flock cohort raised on litter,Campylobacterspecies andCampylobactermultilocus sequence type (MLST). Virulence factors involved in the ability to invade and colonize host tissues and evade host defenses were present inC. jejuniisolates (ST-464) from flock cohorts 1 and 2 but absent inC. jejuniisolates (ST-48) from flock cohort 3.C. jejuniisolates from house three harbored a significantly higher proportion of virulence genes with functions related to glycosylation and immune evasion thanC. jejuniisolates from houses 1 and 2 (P< 0.01). AllC. jejuniisolates were susceptible to all antibiotics tested whileC. coli(n= 4) were resistant to tetracycline and harbored the tetracycline resistant ribosomal protection protein (TetO). Our results suggest that house environment and broiler management practices imposed selective pressures on virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance genes ofCampylobacter. IMPORTANCE Campylobacteris a leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States due to consumption of contaminated or mishandled food products, often associated with chicken meat.Campylobacteris common in the microbiota of avian and mammalian gut; however, acquisition of antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) and virulence factors (VFs) may result in strains that pose significant threat to public health. Although there are studies investigating the genetic diversity ofCampylobacterstrains isolated from post-harvest chicken samples, there are limited data on the genome characteristics of isolates recovered from preharvest broiler production. Here, we show thatCampylobacter jejuniandCampylobacter colidiffer in their carriage of antimicrobial resistance and virulence factors may also differ in their ability to persist in litter during consecutive grow-out of broiler flocks. We found that presence/absence of virulence factors needed for evasion of host defense mechanisms and gut colonization played an integral role in differentiatingCampylobacterstrains.

Microbiology↗

Alaska's Rural Building Stock: a Validation Study Using ResStock and Field Data

The availability of accurate national data on demographics, building stock, and energy use is vital for modeling residential buildings and evaluating decarbonization strategies. However, rural and Indigenous populations, including those in rural Alaska, are typically underrepresented in these datasets. These communities face unique challenges due to their remote locations, severe weather conditions, and limited access to resources, resulting in high energy burden. This report examines how rural Alaskan communities are underrepresented in the ResStock housing model and highlights the need for improved data to address their unique housing and energy challenges. Thus, this report examines the representation of rural Alaskan communities within the national housing stock model, ResStock. A validation study was conducted, considering ResStock, Field Data and Aerial and 3D-view data collection (A3DDC) datasets. The validation process started by using the down selecting approach on the ResStock building stock dataset. For the purpose of this study, only the rural Alaska Boroughs and Census areas located in ASHRAE IECC Climate Zone 8 were considered to ensure a more accurate and fair comparison with the field data, which was collected in rural areas located in climate zone 8, specifically within the Nome Census area. While ResStock may accurately represent several characteristics of the building stock for rural Alaska, some differences between modeled, field data, and aerial and 3D-view data collection datasets were identified. The following building characteristics have a high impact on modeled energy consumption and demonstrated large differences: Revisit heating setpoints and consider a substantially higher setpoint distribution, it could potentially address "missing loads" if this is the case. Develop and include Toyo heating in future modeling for ResStock and EnergyPlus. Remove natural gas as a water heater fuel type outside of North Slope County. Foundation type updated to have more crawlspaces rather than basements. Infiltration rates need reexamination for a larger distribution toward higher infiltration rates. Include more vinyl and less brick in exterior wall type and revise wall color for greater proportion of light rather than dark color. Roof material revised from majority shingles to majority metal. Update number of occupants to higher number of occupant count. Building orientation represents a higher proportion of south facing buildings rather than relatively equal. The findings suggest that updating ResStock's probability logic could better represent rural Alaskan buildings. ResStock can be utilized to identify the best upgrades or energy efficiency and energy efficiency improvements, helping community leaders in making more informed decisions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A novel photomultiplier tube neutron time-of-flight detector

A traditional neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) detector used in inertial confinement fusion consists of a scintillator coupled with a photomultiplier tube (PMT). The instrument response function (IRF) of such a detector is dominated by the scintillator-light decay. At DT neutron yields larger than 1013 a novel detector consisting of a microchannel-plate photomultiplier tube in a housing without a scintillator (PMT nTOF) can be used to measure DT yield, ion temperature, and neutron velocity. Most of the neutron signal in PMT nTOF is produced from neutron interaction with a PMT window. The direct interaction of neutrons with MCP has negligible contribution. The elimination of the scintillator removes the scintillator decay from the instrument response function and makes the IRF of the PMT nTOF faster, which makes the ion temperature and neutron velocity measurements more accurate. Three PMT nTOFs were deployed on the OMEGA Laser System for the first time to diagnose inertial confinement fusion plasma. Here, the design details, characteristics, and calibration results of these detectors in DT implosions on OMEGA are presented. Recommendations on the use of different PMTs for specific applications are provided.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗