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DOE OSTI2026

MULTI-FIDELITY MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF INVERTER BASED RESOURCES IN INTEGRATED T&D SYSTEMS

Uncertainty quantification plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy and reliability of inverter operation within modern power systems that are increasingly dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs). IBRs, especially those operating under grid forming (GFM) control, rely heavily on a complex set of control parameters and system measurements to maintain voltage, frequency, and power balance. Traditional deterministic modeling approaches often fail to capture these parameter deviations, potentially resulting in suboptimal control actions, reduced system stability, or even instability under high penetration of IBRs. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of model calibration and uncertainty quantification (UQ) principles to an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) model involving a GFM converter and provide a framework for prioritizing control improvements, guiding robust design, and informing adaptive strategies that can accommodate real-time variability in system conditions. The proposed approach could be valuable in enhancing the robustness of current and future power systems under increased IBR penetrations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Short-Term Flexibility through Characterization of HVDC Transmission Systems

Efficient power grid operation hinges on maintaining safety and reliability through adaptable system flexibility standards. However, in a future power grid characterized by extensive renewable energy integration, conventional system flexibility and predetermined requirements may falter under extreme conditions. This paper addresses the formidable challenge of sustaining secure and dependable power grid operations under these circumstances, emphasizing the role of controllable high voltage direct current (HVdc) transmission systems in amplifying overall system flexibility and tackling operational complexities. To quantitatively assess short-term flexibility and its associated economic benefits from HVdc within specific regions, we propose a Power Flow Distribution Factors (PTDFs) based approach. This methodology takes into account both dispatchable generators and HVdc systems, pinpointing their contributions. Through an analysis of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system, we demonstrate the practical application of this approach to scrutinize the impacts of existing and future HVdc lines.

Operational Flexibility, Multi-terminal HVdc, tran↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cold Trap Replacement Project Report

This report documents the replacement of the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) cold trap. The work involved preparation of the facility to replace the cold trap, removal of the existing welded cold trap from the sodium purification circuit, installation of a new replacement cold trap, completion of associated welds and examinations, restoration of instrumentation and heaters, and controlled return of the cold trap circuit to service. The replacement represented a significant maintenance evolution because the cold trap is an integral welded component of the sodium system. As a result, the work required coordinated control of sodium chemistry, deliberate formation of freeze plugs, inert gas management, precision cutting and welding, and a staged reheating and refill sequence. The activity was executed using procedural controls intended to protect personnel, preserve system cleanliness, and maintain the integrity of the sodium boundary throughout the work. This report provides a narrative summary of the milestone, including the purpose of the work, the pre-job system condition, the major field activities performed, observations made during execution, and the resulting post-work condition of the METL cold trap circuit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design of the cryogenic moderator system for the second target station

The Second Target Station (STS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory will be a 700 kW pulsed spallation neutron source designed to provide the world's highest brightness cold neutron beams. In order to produce the required neutron performance, two compact liquid hydrogen moderators are located adjacent to the tungsten spallation target and must be supplied with less than 20 K hydrogen and a para hydrogen fraction of 99.8% or greater. The Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) will consist of a single hydrogen loop feeding the two moderators in series cooled by a helium refrigerator with a cooling capacity of 2.5 kW at 17 K. The hydrogen loop consists of a hydrogen circulator, hydrogen helium heat exchanger, ortho-para converter, accumulator, transfer lines and heater. The design of the hydrogen loop is based on the CMS design of the First Target Station at the Spallation Neutron Source and some of the component designs may be reused. General hydrogen temperature control is provided by controlling the flowrate of helium to the heat exchanger. The hydrogen loop will have a constant flowrate of 0.5 L/s and remove a nuclear heat load of about 850 W from the two moderators, which is deposited both directly in the hydrogen and the adjacent hydrogen containing structures. Because the nuclear heat load is accelerator driven, the hydrogen system must remain stable when the heat load is removed instantaneously during beam trips. System stability is maintained passively with the accumulator and actively with the heater. Ionizing radiation which interacts with the liquid hydrogen drives backconversion of the hydrogen from parahydrogen to orthohydrogen. The STS moderator performance is very sensitive to small fractions of orthohydrogen requiring an ortho-para converter to maintain the hydrogen supplied to the moderators at near equilibrium parahydrogen concentration. STS CMS is in the early stage of preliminary design and current focus is evaluating component sizing and system stability during beam transients.

Janney, Jim↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Initial design concepts for solid boron injection in ITER

As part of ITER’s consideration to change its first wall material from beryllium to tungsten, the ITER Organization has proposed studying the feasibility of real-time solid boron injection (SBI) into the plasma to coat the walls and divertor to supplement glow discharge boronization (GDB). Boron deposits getter oxygen and reduce sputtering of tungsten from plasma facing components (PFCs). Particularly in areas with significant plasma wall interactions, boron coatings are expected to be short-lived under high performance plasma conditions. The proposed SBI system aims to maintain boron layers in these areas to avoid excessive radiation from tungsten in the plasma as a risk mitigation to ensure ITER will be able to reach and sustain Q = 10 conditions. The system will be used sparingly, as redeposition of boron can lead to significant tritium retention, which must be minimized in ITER to comply with nuclear safety concerns. SBI is proposed to limit and precisely control the amount of boron injected in real-time during plasma operation. Here, some of the design requirements and initial concepts for an SBI system in ITER are presented based on previous results carried out with SBI systems on a number of tokamaks and stellarators around the world. Previous results using SBI systems installed by PPPL have injected boron particles from 5 µm–2 mm diameter at calibrated rates of 2–200 mg/s in real-time during plasma operation on AUG, DIII-D, EAST, KSTAR, LHD, TFTR, WEST, and W7-X, leading to improved wall conditions with reduced plasma impurity concentrations and radiated power and improved plasma performance. The boron is ionized in the plasma edge and then deposited on plasma-wetted surfaces. On AUG, EAST and WEST reduced tungsten sputtering sources were observed following several discharges with SBI. Extrapolation of these SBI results are presented to estimate the amount of boron needed for wall conditioning in ITER. Real-time SBI control requirements and plasma operation scenarios for ITER are also described.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Evaluation of a Microchannel Condenser for R600a Domestic Refrigerators

Domestic refrigerators are among the most common household appliances, accounting for approximately 4% of total household energy consumption, which is higher than that of clothes dryers, lighting, or cooking appliances. With nearly 13 million new domestic refrigerators sold annually, even marginal improvements in their energy performance can yield significant reductions in overall energy demand and cost. This study focuses on enhancing the performance of domestic refrigerators using R600a as the refrigerant. Most domestic refrigerators currently employ wire-and-tube condensers, which are bulky and require a larger refrigerant charge. Given that R600a is classified as an A3 flammable refrigerant under ASHRAE standards, minimizing the system charge while maintaining or improving performance is critical. To address this, a compact and light weight single-pass serpentine microchannel heat exchanger (made of aluminum) was adopted as a condenser, replacing the conventional wire-and-tube configuration. The modified system was experimentally tested according to AHAM test standards, and charge optimization was performed. The results demonstrated that the refrigerator equipped with the microchannel condenser achieved a 5.3% reduction in energy consumption compared to the baseline configuration with wire-and-tube condenser.

Murugan, Muneeshwaran [ORNL] (ORCID:00000003340352↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simulation and Experimental Validation of an Integrated Heat Pump – Thermal Energy Storage Using a Room-Temperature Phase Change Material

As the dependence on electrical heat pumps (HPs) and intermittent renewables increases, grid strains are expected to grow. This necessitates an energy storage system to reduce the mismatch between energy supply and demand. Thus, a proposed dual-mode commercially available 14.1 kW HP was integrated with a single 22°C phase change material (PCM) thermal storage system (TES) to load-shift both cooling and heating loads. The HP-TES system was manufactured and experimentally tested using a novel test matrix based on AHRI 210/240 psychrometric conditions. Furthermore, transient dual-mode system-level HP-TES models were developed in Modelica and validated using the experimental test conditions. Base HP cooling and heating experimental tests at ambient temperatures of 35°C and −8.3°C show that the modified HP-TES maintained the rated system capacity and performance. The HP-TES discharge provided approximately 30% and 50% reductions in cooling and heating demand, respectively. The transient HP-TES models predicted system capacity and total power input for discharge and recharge operating modes within ±4% mean percentage error, and recharge power input within ±2%, with maximum errors occurring at the equipment startup. During system operation, the sources of model deviations are first-order polynomial fits of the PCM digital scanning calorimetry (DSC) data and unaccounted supercooling in the PCM during solidification. Nonetheless, the model predictions agree with the experimental tests, demonstrating the availability of robust, accurate, and validated transient models that can be used for further validation and the development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues

To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Target Diagnostic Menu Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory SYSM-5620: Design Thinking and Systems Engineering

Target Diagnostic’s Engineering Science (TDES) currently supports over 80 diagnostic systems, all of which draw from a fixed budget that covers staff time and procurement. As the division continues to add new diagnostics, demand on these limited resources increases, yet the budget remains unchanged. Shot Responsible Individuals (RIs) have unrestricted freedom to select any number or type of diagnostics for each experiment, often by copying previous shot configurations with only minor modifications. This practice makes it easy to generate new shots but does not encourage critical evaluation of diagnostic necessity. As a result, many diagnostics are routinely included in a shot without a clear justification, and in practice, much of the data collected is not analyzed. The ever-growing arsenal of diagnostics also increases the burden on TDES personnel, requiring more staff for support, maintenance, and service. This environment creates challenges in focusing resources on diagnostics that provide the greatest value to the NIF mission and raises concerns about the continued justification for maintaining all existing systems. The static TDES budget cannot sustain the ongoing growth in demand for new diagnostic systems. Shot RIs currently face no constraints on the number or type of diagnostics they assign to each experiment, often defaulting to previous configurations without critically assessing the necessity of each diagnostic. This results in the routine inclusion of diagnostics whose data may not be analyzed or may no longer directly support the NIF mission. Consequently, TDES is required to maintain and support an expanding set of diagnostics, straining limited resources and risking inefficient use of staff and funding. There is a need for TDES to efficiently allocate limited resources by establishing a process that requires shot RIs to critically evaluate and justify the inclusion of each diagnostic in their experiments. This process should discourage the routine, unexamined inclusion of diagnostics, support the identification of underutilized or obsolete systems, and ensure that only those diagnostics providing the greatest value to the NIF mission are maintained and supported. Ultimately, this approach must enable TDES to operate within budget constraints while maximizing scientific impact and operational efficiency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Flux-Tunable cavity for Dark matter detection

Developing a dark matter detector with wide mass tunability is an immensely desirable property, yet it is challenging due to maintaining strong sensitivity. Resonant cavities for dark matter detection have traditionally employed mechanical tuning, moving parts around to change electromagnetic boundary conditions. However, these cavities have proven challenging to operate in sub-Kelvin cryogenic environments due to differential thermal contraction, low heat capacities, and low thermal conductivities. Instead, we develop an electronically tunable cavity architecture by coupling a superconducting 3D microwave cavity with a DC flux tunable SQUID. With a flux delivery system engineered to maintain high coherence in the cavity, we perform a hidden-photon dark matter search below the quantum-limited threshold. A microwave photon counting technique is employed through repeated quantum non-demolition measurements using a transmon qubit. With this device, we perform a hidden-photon search and constrain the kinetic mixing angle to ${\varepsilon}< 8.2\times 10^{-15}$ in a tunable band from 5.672 GHz to 5.694 GHz. By coupling multimode tunable cavities to the transmon, wider hidden-photon searching ranges are possible.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits

Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Particle collisionality in scaled kinetic plasma simulations

Kinetic plasma processes, such as magnetic reconnection, collisionless shocks, and turbulence, are fundamental to the dynamics of astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. Simulating these processes often requires particle-in-cell (PIC) methods, but the computational cost of fully kinetic simulations can necessitate the use of artificial parameters, such as a reduced speed of light and ion-to-electron mass ratio, to decrease expense. While these approximations can preserve overall dynamics under specific conditions, they introduce nontrivial impacts on particle collisionality that are not yet well understood. In this work, we develop a method to scale particle collisionality in simulations employing an artificial speed of light and/or an artificial ion-to-electron mass ratio. By introducing species-dependent scaling factors, we independently adjust inter- and intra-species collision rates to better replicate the collisional properties of the physical system. Our approach maintains the fidelity of electron and ion transport properties while preserving critical relaxation rates, such as energy exchange timescales, within the limits of weakly collisional plasma theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate the accuracy of this scaling method through benchmarking tests against theoretical relaxation rates and connecting to fluid theory, highlighting its ability to retain key transport properties. Existing collisional PIC implementations can be easily modified to include this scaling, which will enable deeper insights into the behavior of marginally collisional plasmas across various contexts.

Totorica, S. R. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United State↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity study of hydrogen Soret transport in yttrium Hydride-Based nuclear fuel

Yttrium hydride is an excellent solid neutron moderator material for high temperature nuclear reactor applications due to its high hydrogen density and exceptional hydride stability at high temperatures. Despite these attractive characteristics, the details of how hydrogen behaves within yttrium hydride while temperature gradients exist are still not well understood. The evolution of the hydrogen composition profile resulting from a temperature gradient requires knowledge of hydrogen’s heat of transport, a critical parameter that has not yet been measured for this material. In this work, we perform hydride redistribution, hydrogen dissociation, and hydrogen leakage calculations while varying the Soret heat of transport of hydrogen in yttrium hydride to elucidate the sensitivity of hydride stability under temperature gradients to this parameter. This study analyzes hydride stability of a hypothetical uranium-yttrium hydride nuclear fuel design during operation of a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear reactor. Assuming U-YH x could be fabricated in a physically stabilized manner, this fuel system can likely maintain hydride stability while operating at very high power densities and temperatures. We find that even though the hydrogen dissociation pressure in the gas gap does vary by several percent as the heat of transport temperature parameter is varied, the hydrogen content in the U-YH x fuel meat is relatively insensitive to this parameter over the course of a high burnup fuel cycle; this is due to yttrium hydride’s excellent hydrogen retention under the high temperature conditions considered here. Here, this suggests that hydride stability analyses are insensitive to the value of the Soret heat of transport in U-YH x under steady state liquid metal-cooled reactor conditions. However, the susceptibility to internal gas overpressurization-induced stress-rupture of the cladding during a high temperature transient is more sensitive to this parameter due to the non-linear dependence of hydrogen gas dissociation pressure vs. composition and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

RANGERS: Methodology Report on Design and Performance Assessment of Engineered Barrier Systems in a Salt Repository for HLW/SNF

Salt formations are one of the potential host rocks for the final disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in deep geological repositories, both in Germany and the United States. The safe isolation of radioactive waste in these repositories relies on a multi-barrier system, combining engineered and natural barriers. The natural barrier is provided by the salt rock itself, known for its self-sealing properties and long-term stability. The engineered barrier, on the other hand, comprises sealing components strategically placed within the repository to enhance its containment capabilities. In both Germany and the United States, long-term safety assessments require demonstrating the integrity of the natural barrier for a period of up to 1 million years. Concurrently, the engineered barrier system (EBS) must maintain its structural and functional integrity until the long-term sealing, such as the granular salt backfill material, has re-consolidated to its final low porosity and permeability. Based on extensive expertise and experience with engineered barriers in salt formations, BGE TECHNOLOGY GmbH and Sandia National Laboratories have partnered to develop a robust methodology for the integrity and performance assessment of EBS in HLW repositories through the RANGERS project. This collaborative effort aims to establish a unified approach to geotechnical engineering, repository design, integrity and performance evaluation of EBS in salt repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗