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Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed [3],[5]. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "rule-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rile-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions) [4], a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) [1] has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," call found in [5]. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies [5]. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to all of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

False Alarms

Thermal Considerations for 2039 Opposition Class Nuclear Electric Propulsion/Chemical Propulsion Crewed Mars Mission

The high specific impulse (Isp) of Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) technology offers the potential for advanced space mission capabilities. However, the five critical technology elements of NEP vehicles have yet to prove technical maturity levels for consideration into mission design. In response to the critical reviews by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project created an NEP Technology Maturation Plan (TMP) for focused development of NEP technology. The TMP called for a coordinated set of technology development efforts to meet this objective. The Modular Assembled Radiators for NEP VehicLes (MARVL) Early Career Initiative (ECI) project was initiated to develop a portion of the fifth Critical Technology Element (CTE) of the NEP vehicle: the Primary Heat Rejection Subsystem (PHRS). A target application of a 2039 human-rated Mars mission was outlined in the TMP. For the outlined mission, a NEP vehicle will experience several thermal environments which will impact the design and operation of the PHRS. To maintain radiator temperatures within the required effective temperature range, the effect of natural, induced, and NEP internally generated heat loads on the radiator panel must be well understood. Furthermore, this analysis is critical for analyzing the influence of various orientations and positions of the NEP vehicle relative to nearby celestial bodies throughout the mission. This study conducted a complete enveloping analysis of the thermal environments influencing the NEP vehicle throughout the mission. Thermal analysis was conducted for the radiator panels based on the defined mission environments. This thermal analysis concludes with the selection of ideal radiator orientations for the NEP vehicle, and the identification of worst case hot and cold environmental sink temperatures throughout the mission. For the target application, the environmental sink temperature while the reactor is powered OFF or powered ON ranges from 30 K to 353 K and 2.7 K to 243 K respectively. When considering interplanetary space, the minimum environmental sink temperature when the reactor is powered OFF and the radiators are oriented “edge to Sun” is 2.7 K. The environmental thermal models generated in this study will be used for future studies with the full vehicle system model. The environmental sink temperature curves generated will be used for future radiator and component analysis to predict transient performance in the space environment. The environmental sink temperature and heat rejection capability curves will inform the trade between commissioning orbits that are in consideration. The model may also serve as a useful tool as reference for future crewed space missions, missions involving radiators or temperature sensitive equipment, or other missions requiring analysis of natural orbital thermal environments.

Nuclear Electric Propulsion

Influence of microstructure and temperature on impact toughness of H13 steel produced by binder jet additive manufacturing

Binder Jet Additive Manufacturing (BJAM) is a promising manufacturing pathway to produce H13 steel dies and tooling with complex geometries for applications in high pressure aluminum die casting, hot stamping, and injection molding. While fully dense H13 coupons produced using BJAM have been subjected to detailed microstructure characterization, properties which are critical and relevant to the aforementioned applications, such as impact toughness, have not been reported. Here, this work evaluated the influence of microstructural characteristics and test temperature on the impact toughness of H13 produced by BJAM. Coupons were produced from three different powder size distributions (PSDs), with nominal powder size ranges of −22 μm, 10-32 μm, and 15-53 μm. Coupons were printed, sintered, hot isostatically pressed (HIPed), and heat treated by quenching and tempering. After HIPing, the measured porosities of the different PSDs were all less than 0.015 vol%. The −22 μm PSD BJAM material exhibited the best impact toughness of all three PSDs across the entire test temperature range from 25 to 400 °C, and also exhibited an ambient temperature impact toughness of 10.9 J at a hardness of 46 HRC, equivalent to minimum threshold requirements for premium grade H13. However, all three BJAM PSDs exhibited moderately lower impact toughness than premium grade wrought H13 from RT to 400 °C. We attribute this in part due to the very large prior-austenite grain (PAG) sizes near 400 μm and segregation from former liquid channels leading to greater amounts of carbide precipitation on PAG boundaries. Technical pathways for optimizing processing and chemistry of BJAM H13 to further improve impact toughness are discussed.

Binder jet additive manufacturing

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation

Lunar Electrical Conductivity, Permeability and Temperature From Apollo Magnetometer Experiments

Magnetometers have been deployed at four Apollo sites on the Moon to measure remanent and induced lunar magnetic fields. Measurements from this network of instruments have been used to calculate the electrical conductivity, temperature, magnetic permeability, and iron abundance of the lunar interior. The measured lunar remanent fields range from 3 gammas (γ) minimum at the Apollo 15 site to 327 γ maximum at the Apollo 16 site. Simultaneous magnetic field and solar plasma pressure measurements show that the remanent fields at the Apollo 12 and 16 sites interact with, and are compressed by, the solar wind. Remanent fields at Apollo 12 and Apollo 16 are increased 16 γ and 32 γ, respectively, by a solar plasma bulk pressure increase of 1.5 x 10 -7 dynes/cm 2 . Global lunar fields due to eddy currents, induced in the lunar interior by magnetic transients, have been analyzed to calculate an electrical conductivity profile for the Moon. From nightside magnetometer data in the solar wind it has been found that deeper than 170 km into the Moon the conductivity rises from 3 x 10 -4 mhos/m to 10 -2 mhos/m at 1000-km depth. Recent analysis of data obtained in the geomagnetic tail, in regions free of complicating plasma effects, yields results consistent with nightside values. Conductivity profiles have been used to calculate the lunar temperature for an assumed lunar material of olivine. In the outer layer (~ 170 km thick) the temperature rises to 110° C, after which it gradually increases with depth to 1500° C at a depth of ~ 1000 km. Simultaneous measurements by magnetometers on the lunar surface and in orbit around the moon are used to construct a whole-moon hysteresis curve, from which the global lunar magnetic permeability is determined to be μ = 1.012 ± 0.006. The corresponding global induced dipole moment is 2 x 10 18 gauss-cm 3 for typical inducing fields of 10 -4 gauss in the lunar environment. Lunar free iron abundance corresponding to the global permeability is determined to be 2.5 ± 2.0 wt. %. Total iron abundance (sum of iron in the ferromagnetic and paramagnetic states) is calculated for two assumed compositional models of the lunar interior. For a free iron/orthopyroxene lunar composition the total iron content is calculated to be 12.8 ± 1.0 wt. %; for a free iron/olivine composition, total iron content is 5.5 ± 1.2 wt. %. Other lunar models with an iron core and with a shallow iron-rich layer are also discussed in light of the measured global lunar permeability. Velocities and thicknesses of the Earth's magnetopause and bow shock have been estimated from simultaneous magnetometer measurements. Average speeds are determined to be about 50 km/s for the magnetopause and 70 km/s for the bow shock, although there are large variations in the measurement for any particular boundary crossing. Corresponding measured boundary thicknesses average about 2300 km for the magnetopause and 1400 km for the bow shock.

P Dyal

The Growth of Zeolites A, X and Mordenite in Space

Zeolites are a class of crystalline aluminosilicate materials that form the backbone of the chemical process industry worldwide. They are used primarily as adsorbents and catalysts and support to a significant extent the positive balance of trade realized by the chemical industry in the United States (around $19 billion in 1991). The magnitude of their efforts can be appreciated when one realizes that since their introduction as 'cracking catalysts' in the early 1960's, they have saved the equivalent of 60 percent of the total oil production from Alaska's North Slope. Thus the performance of zeolite catalysts can have a profound effect on the U.S. economy. It is estimated that a 1 percent increase in yield of the gasoline fraction per barrel of oil would represent a savings of 22 million barrels of crude oil per year, representing a reduction of $400 million in the United States' balance of payments. Thus any activity that results in improvement in zeolite catalyst performance is of significant scientific and industrial interest. In addition, due to their 'stability,' uniformity, and, within limits, their 'engineerable' structures, zeolites are being tested as potential adsorbents to purify gases and liquids at the parts-per-billion levels needed in today's electronic, biomedical, and biotechnology industries and for the environment. Other exotic applications, such as host materials for quantum-confined semiconductor atomic arrays, are also being investigated. Because of the importance of this class of material, extensive efforts have been made to characterize their structures and to understand their nucleation and growth mechanisms, so as to be able to custom-make zeolites for a desired application. To date, both the nucleation mechanics and chemistry (such as what are the 'key' nutrients) are, as yet, still unknown for many, if not all, systems. The problem is compounded because there is usually a 'gel' phase present that is assumed to control the degree of supersaturation, and this gel undergoes a continuous 'polymerization' type reaction during nucleation and growth. Generally, for structure characterization and diffusion studies, which are useful in evaluating zeolites for improving yield in petroleum refining as well as for many of the proposed new applications (e.g., catalytic membranes, molecular electronics, chemical sensors) large zeolites (greater than 100 to 1000 times normal size) with minimum lattice defects are desired. Presently, the lack of understanding of zeolite nucleation and growth precludes the custom design of zeolites for these or other uses. It was hypothesized that the microgravity levels achieved in an orbiting spacecraft could help to isolate the possible effects of natural convection (which affects defect formation) and minimize sedimentation, which occurs since zeolites are twice as dense as the solution from which they are formed. This was expected to promote larger crystals by allowing growing crystals a longer residence time in a high-concentration nutrient field. Thus it was hypothesized that the microgravity environment of Earth orbit would allow the growth of large, more defect-free zeolite crystals in high yield.

A Sacco, Jr

Chapter 19B - Antenna Radiation Patterns

Modern civil and military aircraft are equipped with a variety of communication devices, radio navigation equipment, and air traffic control systems. For all of these devices appropriate antennas must be available to transmit and receive the signals. As a result, as many as 30 antennas, and sometimes even more, are mounted around today's aircraft. For this reason, it is necessary to know the capabilities of the receiving/transmitting equipment on board. These capabilities are driven by the antenna characteristics. Therefore, coverage, shading, and beam pointing pattern data are necessary for optimum electronic coverage. The aircraft antenna has to convert the available power density of the electromagnetic field to an electric voltage at its connector. This voltage level must be sufficiently high to operate the connected equipment. The reciprocity principle states that it makes no difference if the antenna is receiving or transmitting. For the certification of the aircraft antennas it must be proven that the antennas are at least generating the minimum receiver input voltage which is required for each radio service. The prime condition is, of course, that the specified field power densities of the different radio navigation and communication services are available. An important property of a radio frequency link is the electro-magnetic field intensity at every point in space for a given output power of the antenna. As the propagation of radio frequency waves in free space is well known, the spatial distribution of the field intensity needs only be measured at one spatial sphere around the antenna. The information is usually given as distributions along the circumference of flat sections through this sphere: each of these is called an ARP. Several ARPs are usually required to describe the complete spatial antenna pattern of an antenna. In addition to mathematical modeling, measurements on sub-scale models, and static measurements on full size models or aircraft on the ground, dynamic measurements on aircraft in flight play the most important role in the aircraft antenna testing and certification. [19B-1] The shape of an ARP, for one given frequency, is determined by the shape of the antenna and the shape and material of the surface it is mounted on. As the directly transmitted waves interfere with waves reflected by the aircraft skin with its complex geometry, and the surface material parameters are only roughly known, it is not possible to predict the ARP with the required accuracy. In ground measurements the earth's surface also acts as a reflector thereby causing the ground ARP to be different from the in-flight ARP. As the in-flight ARP is the ARP we are actually interested in it becomes clear that it is necessary to conduct in-flight ARP measurements. The Flight Test Engineer must be aware of the needs of the specialists who are establishing the test program for measuring antenna patterns and radar cross sections. These tests will require special test equipment and dedicated flights to obtain the data that they require. This Section provides an introduction to the principles of determining antenna patterns and the flight techniques for determining both antenna patterns and radar cross section. Reference 19B-1 provides detailed information.

Helmut Bothe

Application of Nuclear Technology to Art Identification Problems: First Annual Report

Throughout the centuries, as man has become increasingly affluent, his interest in antiquities and objects of art, and the price he has been willing to pay for them, has increased. Inevitably, one result has been to attract the unscrupulous to the production and sale of counterfeit paintings, sculptures, and other works of art. The skill of forgers varies but often is highly sophisticated. However, dealers, museum curators, and other experts have also become more skillful in the detection of forgeries. Scientific tools of increasing sensitivity and sophistication have gradually been applied to the examination of the materials of art and archaeology. Such tools frequently support and render more reliable the judgment of the experts. The quality of forgeries may improve further as their makers become acquainted with the new methods of detection and in turn learn to circumvent or confound the methods. Therefore, the development of still more advanced methods of examination has great utility in the art world. This is particularly true if the ultimate effect is to make circumvention of the methods of examination so costly that the economic incentives for producing forgeries may be substantially reduced, if not eliminated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) In-Trail Procedures (ITP)

Aircraft in oceanic and remote non-radar airspace frequently fly for extended periods of time in the same direction, at the same time, along similar flight paths as other aircraft. Since there is no radar surveillance, controllers use procedural separation to ensure that aircraft remain separated. Procedural separation distances are typically larger than radar separation distances and as a result aircraft operating in oceanic airspace are sometimes held at non-optimal flight levels due to conflicting traffic at intervening flight levels. Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) In-Trail Procedures (ITP) were developed to enable flight level change maneuvers that would otherwise not be possible with current procedural separation standards. Aircraft operators choosing to equip with an ADS-B transceiver and an appropriate onboard decision support system would be able to take advantage of these procedures when operating in proximity to aircraft equipped with a suitable ADS-B transmitter (“ADS-B Out”). The ability to perform in-trail maneuvers to achieve more time at optimum altitudes could result in more efficient and predictable flight profiles thereby saving fuel and in some cases allowing operators to make beneficial operational decisions. NASA first began developing ADS-B ITP in 2003 as a result of a desire to develop methodologies, concepts, and procedures to reduce separation requirements for future air transportation systems using airborne ADS-B. The objectives were to provide insight into the details necessary to reduce separation requirements for the future and to develop applications that could provide incentives for operators to voluntarily equip with transformational technologies. From 2003 to 2008, NASA conducted research that supported the development of ITP including batch simulations, human-in-the-loop experiments and avionics and separation standards development. This research showed enough maturity and benefit that in 2008, the FAA Surveillance and Broadcast Services (SBS) program adopted ADS-B ITP as one of their three key, near-term applications to make use of ADS-B-In. The FAA developed an agreement with NASA to transition the technology and established an FAA project for the purpose of performing an operational trial of ADS-B ITP in revenue service in the summer of 2011. The objectives of the project are to a) validate the operational performance and economic benefits of ITP; and b) develop and validate ADS-B ITP Minimum Operational Performance Specifications (MOPS) material. As a part of this project, the FAA established agreements with United Airlines and Honeywell. The agreements include the work necessary for the development, certification and installation of onboard systems for twelve United Airlines 747-400s. ITP system development is nearly complete and certification activities are underway. The FAA project has also been working with Oakland Oceanic Control Center (ZOA) and the FAA’s Oceanic and Offshore Operations Office to develop controller procedures and safety analyses that are required to support the flight trial. The FAA has also been working on the development of an ITP Operational Specification that should be approved this April. The presentation will cover some of the key aspects of the development, challenges, and integration required to successfully transition ADS-B ITP from a concept in 2003 to flight trials in revenue service in 2011.

Kenneth M Jones

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra

The SPT-deep Cluster Catalog: Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Selected Clusters from Combined SPT-3G and SPTpol Measurements over 100 Square Degrees

We present a catalog of 500 galaxy cluster candidates in the SPT-Deep field: a 100 deg$^{2}$ field that combines data from the SPT-3G and SPTpol surveys to reach noise levels of 3.0, 2.2, and 9.0 μK-arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively. Candidates are selected via the thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) effect with a minimum significance of ξ = 4.0, resulting in a catalog of purity ∼89%. Optical data from the Dark Energy Survey and infrared data from the Spitzer Space Telescope are used to confirm 442 cluster candidates. The clusters span 0.12 < z ≲ 1.8 and 1.0 × 10$^{14}$M$_{⊙}$/h$_{70}$ < M$_{500c}$ < 8.7 × 10$^{14}$M$_{⊙}$/h$_{70}$. The sample’s median redshift is 0.74, and the median mass is 1.7 × 10$^{14}$M$_{⊙}$/h$_{70}$; these are the lowest median mass and highest median redshift of any SZ-selected sample to date. We assess the effect of infrared emission from cluster member galaxies on cluster selection by performing a joint fit to the infrared dust and tSZ signals by combining measurements from SPT and overlapping submillimeter data from Herschel/SPIRE. We find that at high redshift (z > 1), the tSZ signal is reduced by $17.9_{−3.2}^{+3.8}$%$(3.8_{−0.7}^{+0.9}$%$)$ at 150 GHz (95 GHz) due to dust contamination. We repeat our cluster finding method on dust-nulled SPT maps and find the resulting catalog is consistent with the nominal SPT-Deep catalog, suggesting dust contamination does not significantly impact the SPT-Deep selection function; we attribute this lack of bias to the inclusion of the SPT 220 GHz band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS