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Hypervelocity Impact Test Facility: A gun for hire

An affordable technique has been developed to duplicate the types of impacts observed on spacecraft, including the Shuttle, by use of a certified Hypervelocity Impact Facility (HIF) which propels particulates using capacitor driven electric gun techniques. The fully operational facility provides a flux of particles in the 10-100 micron diameter range with a velocity distribution covering the space debris and interplanetary dust particle environment. HIF measurements of particle size, composition, impact angle and velocity distribution indicate that such parameters can be controlled in a specified, tailored test designed for or by the user. Unique diagnostics enable researchers to fully describe the impact for evaluating the 'targets' under full power or load. Users regularly evaluate space hardware, including solar cells, coatings, and materials, exposing selected portions of space-qualified items to a wide range of impact events and environmental conditions. Benefits include corroboration of data obtained from impact events, flight simulation of designs, accelerated aging of systems, and development of manufacturing techniques.

Johnson, Calvin R.↗

Satellite-Based Characterization of Convection and Impacts from the Catastrophic 10 August 2020 Midwest U.S. Derecho

The catastrophic derecho that occurred on 10 August 2020 across the Midwest United States caused billions of dollars of damage to both urban and rural infrastructure as well as agricultural crops, most notably across the state of Iowa. This paper documents the complex evolution of the derecho through the use of low-Earth orbit passive-microwave imager and GOES-16satellite-derived products complemented by products derived from NEXRAD weather radar observations. Additional satellite sensors including optical imagers and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) were used to observe impacts to the power grid and agriculture in Iowa. SAR improved the identification and quantification of damaged corn and soybeans, as compared to true-color composites and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A statistical approach to identify damaged corn and soybean crops from SAR was created with estimates of 1.97 million acres of damaged corn and 1.40 million acres of damaged soybeans in the state of Iowa. The damage estimates generated by this study were comparable to estimates produced by others after the derecho, including two commercial agricultural companies.

Derecho↗

Spectroscopic Signatures of the Vanishing Natural Coronagraph of eta Carinae

Eta Carinae is a massive interacting binary system shrouded in a complex circumstellar environment whose evolution is the source of the long-term brightening observed during the last 80 years. An occulter, acting as a natural coronagraph, impacts observations from our perspective, but not from most other directions. Other sight-lines are visible to us through studies of the Homunculus reflection nebula. The coronagraph appears to be vanishing, decreasing the extinction towards the central star, and causing the star's secular brightening. In contrast, the Homunculus remains at an almost constant brightness. The coronagraph primarily suppresses the stellar continuum, to a lesser extent the wind lines, and not the circumstellar emission lines. This explains why the absolute values of equivalent widths (EWs) of the emission lines in our direct view are larger than those seen in reflected by the Homunculus, why the direct view absolute EWs are decreasing with time, and why lower-excitation spectral wind lines formed at larger radii (e.g Fe ii 4585A) decrease in intensity at a faster pace than higher excitation lines that form closer to the star (e.g. Hdelta). Our main result is that the star, despite its 10-fold brightening over two decades, is relatively stable. A vanishing coronagraph that can explain both the large flux evolution and the much weaker spectral evolution. This is contrary to suggestions that the long-term variability is intrinsic to the primary star that is still recovering from the Great Eruption with a decreasing mass-loss rate and a polar wind that is evolving at a slower pace than at the equator.

A. Damineli↗

Convective Transport and Evolution of Clouds and aerosols in the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

The existence of a persistent layer in the lowermost stratosphere in the Asian Monsoon region is well-known and has been observed by satellites and also in situ by balloon-borne sensors. This aerosol layer has been observed to persist every year by both SAGE sensors and by CALIOP, between the tropopause and the lower boundary of the Junge stratospheric sulfate layer. But how does this layer form and why? Apparently, aerosols are lofted by convection form the Indian and Asian continents, into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) area in the middle of a persistent anticyclone associate with the Asian summer monsoon. But some mysteries remain. The top of this aerosol layer is well above the altitude of maximum convective outflow, so why is the top of the aerosol layer so high? Are the aerosols coming from China or from India? And finally, is there an observable impact of these aerosol on thin cirrus distributions in the UT/LS? We explore the interesting difference in altitude between the ATAL layer and the convective cloud top height, using observations from CALIOP and from SAGE. In the process of doing this we examine the accuracy of both CALIOP and SAGE cloud/aerosol discrimination, and the impact of various averaging lengths. We compare the apparent "observational tropopause" with observations from COSMIC, CALIOP (clouds), and with modeled interpolation from MERRA-2. We also compare CALIOP and CloudSat daytime cloud top heights for convective clouds with the vertical aerosol distribution, and evaluate convection in this region as represented by MERRA-2. Finally, and maybe most importantly we compare convective cloud top heights and temperatures with diurnal variability during the most recent years by using observations from the geostationary Himawari satellite. How representative are the twice-daily A-Train observations, when compared to the natural diurnal variability of convection? The goal is to establish the origins of these UT/LS aerosols, whether these aerosol distributions can be completely explained by convective transport, and to evaluate convective lofting of aerosol by models. Ultimately, the convective lofting of aerosols as modeled is needed to explain the Asian Monsoon aerosol distributions. The observations contribute much-needed information to enhance the model accuracy.

clouds↗

Interaction of Martian Flow Ejecta Blankets with Pre-existing Impact Craters: Morphological Observations

The evidence of interaction between impact flow ejecta blankets and pre-existing landforms such as craters, scarps, and wrinkle ridges may yield important clues as to the nature of the ejecta emplacement process. The morphology of flow ejecta blankets and the interactions of these blankets with pre-emplacement impact craters were characterized. About 80 small satellite craters on or in 3 well-expressed low ejecta parent impact craters were recognized. Interaction of the blanket with pre-existing structures was studied, and several types were described. These are: (1) infilling; (2) encroachment; (3) overflow; and (4) breaching. Examination of the overall morphology of three ejecta blankets reveals a range of thickness, from depths sufficient to completely bury craters in the 5 km diameter range in distal areas of the blankets, to very thin blankets which allow subtle pre-existing topography to be visible within a half the diameter of the parent crater. Radial and azimuthal symmetries appear to exist within the blankets over a range of morphologies. It also appears that there is a weak linear correlation between the diameter of craters with nearly 100% infilling and distance from the center of the parent crater.

Pieri, D. C.↗

Observations of impact-induced molten metal-silicate partitioning

Observations of molten mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB)-molybdenum (Mo) interactions produced by shock experiments provide insight into impact and differentiation processes involving metal-silicate partitioning. Analysis of fragments recovered from experiments (achieving MORB liquid shock pressures from 0.8 to 6 GPa) revealed significant changes in the composition of the MORB and Mo due to reaction of the silicate and metal liquids on a short time scale (less than 13 s). The FeO concentration of the shocked liquid decreases systematically with increasing pressure. In fact, the most highly shocked liquid (6 GPa) contains only 0.1 wt% FeO compared to an initial concentration of 9 wt% in the MORB. We infer from the presence of micrometer-sized Fe-, Si- and Mo-rich metallic spheres in the shocked glass that the Fe and Si oxides in the MORB were reduced in an estimated oxygen fugacity of 10(exp -17) bar and subsequently alloyed with the Mo. The in-situ reduction of FeO in the shocked molten basalt implies that shock-induced reduction of impact melt should be considered a viable mechanism for the formation of metallic phases. Similar metallic phases may form during impact accretion of planets and in impacted material found on the lunar surface and near terrestrial impact craters. In particular, the minute, isolated Fe particles found in lunar soils may have formed by such a process. Furthermore, the metallic spheres within the shocked glass have a globular texture similar to the textures of metallic spheroids from lunar samples and the estimated, slow cooling rate of less than or equal to 140 C/s for our spheres is consistent with the interpretation that the lunar spheroids formed by slow cooling within a melted target.

Rowan, Linda R.↗

Breakup of meteoroids in the Venusian atmosphere and its effects on crater formation

Early results of the Magellan mission to Venus show that almost all of the observed impact craters appear to be unaffected by erosion, burial, and tectonic deformation. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the observed paucity of small craters in the cumulative size-frequency distribution (SFD) relative to the simple power laws observed on airless planets is most likely due to atmospheric effects on the incoming meteoroids. A model was developed earlier for travel and breakup of a meteoroid in an atmosphere, but this model was never used to estimate a SFD. An attempt is made to match the cumulative SFD and the number and size distribution of multiple-floored craters and crater fields using this model.

Herrick, R. R.↗

External Sources of Water for Mercury's Putative Ice Deposits

Radar images have revealed the possible presence of ice deposits in Mercury's polar regions. Although thermal models indicate that water ice can be stable in permanently shaded regions near Mercury's poles, the ultimate source of the water remains unclear. We use stochastic models and other theoretical methods to investigate the role of external sources in supplying Mercury with the requisite amount of water. By extrapolating the current terrestrial influx of interplanetary dust particles to that at Mercury, we find that continual micrometeoritic bombardment of Mercury over the last 3.5 byr could have resulted in the delivery of (3-60) x 10(exp 16) grams of water ice to the permanently shaded regions at Mercury's poles (equivalent to an average ice thickness of 0.8-20 m). Erosion by micrometeoritic impact on exposed ice deposits could reduce the above value by about a half. For comparison, the current ice deposits on Mercury are believed to be somewhere between approx. 2 and 20 m thick. Using a Monte Carlo model to simulate the impact history of Mercury, we find that asteroids and comets can also deliver an amount of water consistent with the observations. Impacts from Jupiter-family comets over the last 3.5 billion years can supply (0.1-200) x 10(exp 16) grams of water to Mercury's polar regions (corresponding to ice deposits 0.05-60 m thick), Halley-type comets can supply (0.2-20) x 10(exp 16) grams of water to the poles (0.07-7 m of ice), and asteroids can provide (0.4-20) x 10(exp 16) grams of water to the poles (0.1-8 m of ice). Although all these external sources are nominally sufficient to explain the estimated amount of ice currently at Mercury's poles, impacts by a few large comets and/or asteroids seem to provide the best explanation for both the amount and cleanliness of the ice deposits on Mercury. Despite their low population estimates in the inner solar system, Jupiter-family comets are particularly promising candidates for delivering water to Mercury because they have a larger volatile content than asteroids and more favorable orbital and impact characteristics than Halley-type comets.

Moses, Julianne I.↗

The Meteoroid Environment Encountered By the James Webb Space Telescope

All spacecraft run the risk of being damaged by meteoroids at a rate proportional to the spacecraft's surface area. The exceptionally large James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has endured 20 impacts on its primary mirror in its first year of operation. While most of the impacts experienced were commensurate with pre-launch predictions, one particularly large impact in May 2022 prompted the program to take a fresh look at the meteoroid environment in order to determine whether potentially unaccounted-for meteoroid risks can be mitigated. In this talk, we present a directional model of the meteoroid environment encountered by the spacecraft and compare it with the observed impact rate. Because of JWST’s ability to measure nanometer-size changes to the primary mirror surface, our results indicate that meteoroids carrying as little as 1 Joule of kinetic energy can produce measurable effects. We also find that the impact rate is highest when JWST faces in the direction of orbital motion about the Sun. By implementing a "meteoroid avoidance zone" that discourages observations within 75° of the ram direction, we estimate that JWST has reduced the impact rate by more than half.

Althea Moorhead↗

An Exponential Luminous Efficiency Model for Hypervelocity Impact into Regolith

The flash of thermal radiation produced as part of the impact-crater forming process can be used to determine the energy of the impact if the luminous efficiency is known. From this energy the mass and, ultimately, the mass flux of similar impactors can be deduced. The luminous efficiency, eta, is a unique function of velocity with an extremely large variation in the laboratory range of under 6 km/s but a necessarily small variation with velocity in the meteoric range of 20 to 70 km/s. Impacts into granular or powdery regolith, such as that on the moon, differ from impacts into solid materials in that the energy is deposited via a serial impact process which affects the rate of deposition of internal (thermal) energy. An exponential model of the process is developed which differs from the usual polynomial models of crater formation. The model is valid for the early time portion of the process and focuses on the deposition of internal energy into the regolith. The model is successfully compared with experimental luminous efficiency data from both laboratory impacts and from lunar impact observations. Further work is proposed to clarify the effects of mass and density upon the luminous efficiency scaling factors. Keywords hypervelocity impact impact flash luminous efficiency lunar impact meteoroid 1

Swift, W. R.↗

Centrifuge impact cratering experiments: Scaling laws for non-porous targets

A geotechnical centrifuge was used to investigate large body impacts onto planetary surfaces. At elevated gravity, it is possible to match various dimensionless similarity parameters which were shown to govern large scale impacts. Observations of crater growth and target flow fields have provided detailed and critical tests of a complete and unified scaling theory for impact cratering. Scaling estimates were determined for nonporous targets. Scaling estimates for large scale cratering in rock proposed previously by others have assumed that the crater radius is proportional to powers of the impactor energy and gravity, with no additional dependence on impact velocity. The size scaling laws determined from ongoing centrifuge experiments differ from earlier ones in three respects. First, a distinct dependence of impact velocity is recognized, even for constant impactor energy. Second, the present energy exponent for low porosity targets, like competent rock, is lower than earlier estimates. Third, the gravity exponent is recognized here as being related to both the energy and the velocity exponents.

Schmidt, Robert M.↗

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow from Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. Precipitation impacts latent heating profiles locally while global circulation patterns distribute precipitation and energy from the equator to the poles. For the hydrological cycle, falling snow is a primary contributor in northern latitudes during the winter seasons. Falling snow is the source of snow pack accumulations that provide fresh water resources for many communities in the world. Furthermore, falling snow impacts society by causing transportation disruptions during severe snow events. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle, both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. The challenges of estimating falling snow from space still exist though progress is being made. These challenges include weak falling snow signatures with respect to background (surface, water vapor) signatures for passive sensors over land surfaces, unknowns about the spherical and non-spherical shapes of the snowflakes, their particle size distributions (PSDs) and how the assumptions about the unknowns impact observed brightness temperatures or radar reflectivities, differences in near surface snowfall and total column snow amounts, and limited ground truth to validate against. While these challenges remain, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (approx 2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 0.25 g / cubic m and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Sensitivity analyses were performed to better ascertain the relationships between multifrequency microwave and millimeter-wave sensor observations and the falling snow/underlying field of view. In addition, thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types were studied. Results will be presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗

Impacts with the Earth and Jupiter

The Earth has been subject to impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive current search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. In general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. The widely-observed impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter in July 1994 provides a graphic example of such an interplanetary collision and is stimulating worldwide interest in protecting our planet against cosmic impact catastrophes.

Morrison, David↗

Insight and Evidence Motivating the Simplification of Dual-Analysis Hybrid Systems into Single-Analysis Hybrid Systems

Many hybrid data assimilation systems currently used for NWP employ some form of dual-analysis system approach. Typically a hybrid variational analysis is responsible for creating initial conditions for high-resolution forecasts, and an ensemble analysis system is responsible for creating sample perturbations used to form the flow-dependent part of the background error covariance required in the hybrid analysis component. In many of these, the two analysis components employ different methodologies, e.g., variational and ensemble Kalman filter. In such cases, it is not uncommon to have observations treated rather differently between the two analyses components; recentering of the ensemble analysis around the hybrid analysis is used to compensated for such differences. Furthermore, in many cases, the hybrid variational high-resolution system implements some type of four-dimensional approach, whereas the underlying ensemble system relies on a three-dimensional approach, which again introduces discrepancies in the overall system. Connected to these is the expectation that one can reliably estimate observation impact on forecasts issued from hybrid analyses by using an ensemble approach based on the underlying ensemble strategy of dual-analysis systems. Just the realization that the ensemble analysis makes substantially different use of observations as compared to their hybrid counterpart should serve as enough evidence of the implausibility of such expectation. This presentation assembles numerous anecdotal evidence to illustrate the fact that hybrid dual-analysis systems must, at the very minimum, strive for consistent use of the observations in both analysis sub-components. Simpler than that, this work suggests that hybrid systems can reliably be constructed without the need to employ a dual-analysis approach. In practice, the idea of relying on a single analysis system is appealing from a cost-maintenance perspective. More generally, single-analysis systems avoid contradictions such as having to choose one sub-component to generate performance diagnostics to another, possibly not fully consistent, component.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Oculometric Analysis of Saccadic Compensation for Visual Motion Processing Impairment due to Alcohol and Sleep Disruption

The Visuomotor Control Laboratory at Ames Research Center has developed a 5-minute ocular tracking test that computes 21 largely independent metrics of visuomotor performance, reflecting neural signal processing along a number of distinct pathways through cortex, brainstem, and cerebellum. Human sensorimotor performance is resilient to the challenges and stressors of many operational environments, in part, because overall performance is achieved through multiple parallel systems. Our multidimensional oculometrics allow us to examine impacts on these sub-components separately. To illustrate this, we contrasted the effects of two mild neural stressors, acute sleep-deprivation and low-dose alcohol. We have previously shown that, in both cases, oculometric analysis is a highly sensitive indicator of impairment. Here we quantified not only the observed impact on the performance of one sub-system, smooth pursuit, which uses high-level cortical processing of visual motion to track a moving object, but also the observed (partial) compensation by an evolutionarily older mid-brain and brainstem subsystem, saccades, which generates jumps in eye position to catch up with the target when smooth pursuit is inadequate. Specifically, we examined the dose-response (effect size vs. dose size) of the ground lost (pursuit deficit) and the ground recouped (saccadic compensation) across three separate studies – acute low-dose alcohol administration (16 subjects), acute sleep loss (12 subjects), and acute sleep loss with caffeine intervention (9 subjects). We computed the dose-response slopes using linear regression. The figure below shows that, in the case of acute sleep deprivation, the resulting slopes for ground lost and ground recouped (mean ± SE across subjects) were significantly different (paired t-test, t(11) = 5.17, p < 0.001), indicating poor saccadic compensation. However, when sleep loss was coupled with caffeine ingestion, ground lost was decreased and ground recouped increased such that the slopes were no longer different (t(8) = -0.05, p = 0.965). With alcohol, the two slopes were large albeit not significantly different (t(15) = 0.96, p = 0.351), indicating significant pursuit impairment but effective saccadic compensation. Our findings show that sleep deprivation and alcohol affect oculomotor performance differently. Low-dose alcohol effects appear predominantly cortical, with effective brainstem compensation. Sleep loss and circadian disruption however appears to affect both cortical and brainstem pathways with caffeine providing an effective countermeasure to both effects. Beyond the mere detection of impairment, our oculometric assessment allows us to characterize the nature of the deficit, to provide insight into the neural substrate, and to assess the effectiveness of countermeasures.

pursuit↗

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Gmao Hybrid 4d-Envar Observing System Simulation Experiment Framework.

This work describes the extension of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework to use a hybrid 4D-EnVar scheme instead of 3D-Var. The original 3D-Var and hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSEs use the same version of the data assimilation system (DAS) so that a direct comparison is possible in terms of the validation with respect to their corresponding real cases. Rather than quantifying the differences between the two data assimilation methodologies, a short inter-comparison of upgrading from a 3D- to a 4D-OSSE is provided to highlight aspects where this change matters to the OSSE community and to identify features of data assimilation that can only be explored in a four-dimensional OSSE framework. A short validation of the hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSE shows that conclusions from previous assessments of the 3D-Var OSSE in its ability to mimic the behavior of the real system still hold with the same caveats. Furthermore, some aspects of the ensemble configuration and behavior are discussed along with forecast sensitivity to observation impacts (FSOI). Estimates of error standard deviations are shown to be smaller in the hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSE but with little impact on the character of the error. A discussion on future work directions focuses on exploring the four-dimensional aspect such as the error distribution within the assimilation window or four-dimensional handling of high-temporal density observations.

Data assimilation↗