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At least 91 records · Page 5

Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

data mining

NCCDS performance model

The NASA/GSFC Network Control Center (NCC) provides communication services between ground facilities and spacecraft missions in near-earth orbit that use the Space Network. The NCC Data System (NCCDS) provides computational support and is expected to be highly utilized by the service requests needed in the future years. A performance model of the NCCDS has been developed to assess the future workload and possible enhancements. The model computes message volumes from mission request profiles and SN resource levels and generates the loads for NCCDS configurations as a function of operational scenarios and processing activities. The model has been calibrated using the results of benchmarks performed on the operational NCCDS facility and used to assess some future SN service request scenarios.

Richmond, Eric

Scale model performance test investigation of mixed flow exhaust systems for an energy efficient engine /E3/ propulsion system

As part of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine program, scale-model performance tests of a mixed flow exhaust system were conducted. The tests were used to evaluate the performance of exhaust system mixers for high-bypass, mixed-flow turbofan engines. The tests indicated that: (1) mixer penetration has the most significant affect on both mixing effectiveness and mixer pressure loss; (2) mixing/tailpipe length improves mixing effectiveness; (3) gap reduction between the mixer and centerbody increases high mixing effectiveness; (4) mixer cross-sectional shape influences mixing effectiveness; (5) lobe number affects mixing degree; and (6) mixer aerodynamic pressure losses are a function of secondary flows inherent to the lobed mixer concept.

Kuchar, A. P.

Predicting the Impacts of Intravehicular Displays on Driving Performance with Human Performance Modeling

A challenge facing the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), as well as international safety experts, is the need to educate car drivers about the dangers associated with performing distraction tasks while driving. Researchers working for the U.S. Army Research Laboratory have developed a technique for predicting the increase in mental workload that results when distraction tasks are combined with driving. They implement this technique using human performance modeling. They have predicted workload associated with driving combined with cell phone use. In addition, they have predicted the workload associated with driving military vehicles combined with threat detection. Their technique can be used by safety personnel internationally to demonstrate the dangers of combining distracter tasks with driving and to mitigate the safety risks.

Mitchell, Diane Kuhl

Mars Propellant Liquefaction and Storage Performance Modeling using Thermal Desktop with an Integrated Cryocooler Model

NASAs current Mars architectures are assuming the production and storage of 23 tons of liquid oxygen on the surface of Mars over a duration of 500+ days. In order to do this in a mass efficient manner, an energy efficient refrigeration system will be required. Based on previous analysis NASA has decided to do all liquefaction in the propulsion vehicle storage tanks. In order to allow for transient Martian environmental effects, a propellant liquefaction and storage system for a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) was modeled using Thermal Desktop. The model consisted of a propellant tank containing a broad area cooling loop heat exchanger integrated with a reverse turbo Brayton cryocooler. Cryocooler sizing and performance modeling was conducted using MAV diurnal heat loads and radiator rejection temperatures predicted from a previous thermal model of the MAV. A system was also sized and modeled using an alternative heat rejection system that relies on a forced convection heat exchanger. Cryocooler mass, input power, and heat rejection for both systems were estimated and compared against sizing based on non-transient sizing estimates.

fluid modeling

V/STOL shaft propulsion system analytical performance model

Several classes of system performance simulations of V/STOL propulsion systems are presented. A digital simulation approach for a typical system (a propulsion system made up of three engines, shafts and gearbox, and remote lift fan) is given with a description of the general philosophy, solution options and model flexibility.

Sulkoske, R. A.

Human task animation from performance models and natural language input

Graphical manipulation of human figures is essential for certain types of human factors analyses such as reach, clearance, fit, and view. In many situations, however, the animation of simulated people performing various tasks may be based on more complicated functions involving multiple simultaneous reaches, critical timing, resource availability, and human performance capabilities. One rather effective means for creating such a simulation is through a natural language description of the tasks to be carried out. Given an anthropometrically-sized figure and a geometric workplace environment, various simple actions such as reach, turn, and view can be effectively controlled from language commands or standard NASA checklist procedures. The commands may also be generated by external simulation tools. Task timing is determined from actual performance models, if available, such as strength models or Fitts' Law. The resulting action specification are animated on a Silicon Graphics Iris workstation in real-time.

Esakov, Jeffrey

International Space Station Solar Array Bifacial Electrical Performance Model Developed

The first U.S. photovoltaic array (PVA) was activated on the International Space Station (ISS) in December 2000. Though normally Sun-tracking, U.S. ISS arrays are held stationary to minimize plume impingement from the space shuttle during docking and undocking, as well as during ISS assembly operations. Because of these operational constraints, it is not always possible to point the front side of the arrays at the Sun. In these cases, sunlight directly illuminates the backside of the PVA as well as albedo illumination on either the front or the back. Since the solar cells are mounted on a thin, solar transparent substrate, appreciable backside power (about one-third of the front-side power) is produced. To provide a more detailed assessment of the ISS power production capability, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center developed a PVA electrical performance model applicable to generalized bifacial illumination conditions. The model validation was done using on-orbit PVA performance.

Delleur, Ann M.

How Well Does NASA GEOS Model Perform in Simulating Dust Deposition into the Tropical Atlantic Ocean?

Massive dust emitted from North Africa can transport long distances across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Americas. Dust deposition along the transit adds microorganisms and essential nutrients to marine ecosystem, which has important implications for biogeochemical cycle and climate. However, assessing the dust-ecosystemclimate interactions has been hindered in part by the paucity of dust deposition measurements and large uncertainties associated with oversimplified representations of dust processes in current models. We have recently produced a unique dataset of seasonal dust deposition flux and dust loss frequency into the tropical Atlantic Ocean at a nominal resolution of 200 km x 500 km by using the decade-long (2007-2016) record of aerosol three-dimensional distribution from four satellite sensors, namely CALIOP, MODIS, MISR, and IASI. On the basis of the ten-year average, the yearly dust deposition into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated at 98-153 Tg. The dust deposition shows large spatial and temporal (on seasonal and interannual scale) variability. The satellite observations also yield an estimate of annual mean dust loss frequency of 0.052 ~ 0.078 d-1, a useful diagnostic that makes it possible to disentangle the dust transport and removal processes from the dust emissions when identifying the major factors contributing to the uncertainties and biases in the model simulated dust deposition. In this study, we use the dataset along with in situ and remote sensing observations to assess how well NASA GEOS model performs in simulating trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition. We found that the GEOS modeling of dust deposition falls within the range of satellite-based estimates. However, this reasonable agreement in dust deposition is a compensation of the model's underestimate of dust emissions and overestimate of dust removal efficiency. Further, the overestimate of dust removal efficiency results largely from the model's overestimate of rainfall rate. Our results provide insights into the model's deficiencies at process level, which could better guide model improvements.

Yu, Hongbin

Charge-coupled-device X-ray detector performance model

A model that predicts the performance characteristics of CCD detectors being developed for use in X-ray imaging is presented. The model accounts for the interactions of both X-rays and charged particles with the CCD and simulates the transport and loss of charge in the detector. Predicted performance parameters include detective and net quantum efficiencies, split-event probability, and a parameter characterizing the effective thickness presented by the detector to cosmic-ray protons. The predicted performance of two CCDs of different epitaxial layer thicknesses is compared. The model predicts that in each device incomplete recovery of the charge liberated by a photon of energy between 0.1 and 10 keV is very likely to be accompanied by charge splitting between adjacent pixels. The implications of the model predictions for CCD data processing algorithms are briefly discussed.

Bautz, M. W.

A human performance modelling approach to intelligent decision support systems

Manned space operations require that the many automated subsystems of a space platform be controllable by a limited number of personnel. To minimize the interaction required of these operators, artificial intelligence techniques may be applied to embed a human performance model within the automated, or semi-automated, systems, thereby allowing the derivation of operator intent. A similar application has previously been proposed in the domain of fighter piloting, where the demand for pilot intent derivation is primarily a function of limited time and high workload rather than limited operators. The derivation and propagation of pilot intent is presented as it might be applied to some programs.

Mccoy, Michael S.

Radiative force model performance for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched to study the Earth's oceans. To maximize the benefit from the alimetric data collected, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at extremely high accuracy. To meet these demands, a nonconservative force model which accounts for the satellite's complex geometry, attitude and surface properties has been developed. The 'box-wing' representation treats the spacecraft as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connected solar array. Model performance and parameter sensitivities are discussed.

TRT-THEORETICAL

Conservative force model performance for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched on August 10, 1992 to study the Earth's oceans. To achieve maximum benefit from the altimetric data collected, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at an unprecedented level of accuracy. In order to satisfy these requirements, a model which accounts for the satellite's complex geometry, attitude, and surface properties has been developed. This `box-wing' representation treats the spacecraft as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connecetd solar array. The nonconservative forces acting on each of the eight surfaces are computed independently, yielding vector accelerations which are summed to compute the total aggregate effect on the satellite center-of-mass. Parameters associated with each flat plate were derived from a finite element analysis of the spacecraft. Certain parameters can be inferred from tracking data and have been adjusted to obtain a better representation of the satellite acceleration history. Changes in the nominal mission profile and the presence of an `anomalistic' force have complicated this tuning process. Model performance, parameter sensitivities, and the `anomalistic' force will be discussed.

Marshall, J. Andrew

Metallic Rotor Sizing and Performance Model for Flywheel Systems

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is developing flywheel system requirements and designs for terrestrial and spacecraft applications. Several generations of flywheels have been designed and tested at GRC using in-house expertise in motors, magnetic bearings, controls, materials and power electronics. The maturation of a flywheel system from the concept phase to the preliminary design phase is accompanied by maturation of the Integrated Systems Performance model, where estimating relationships are replaced by physics based analytical techniques. The modeling can incorporate results from engineering model testing and emerging detail from the design process.

Moore, Camille J.

Ballistic Performance Model of Crater Formation in Monolithic, Porous Thermal Protection Systems

Porous monolithic ablative systems insulate atmospheric reentry vehicles from reentry plasmas generated by atmospheric braking from orbital and exo-orbital velocities. Due to the necessity that these materials create a temperature gradient up to several thousand Kelvin over their thickness, it is important that these materials are near their pristine state prior to reentry. These materials may also be on exposed surfaces to space environment threats like orbital debris and meteoroids leaving a probability that these exposed surfaces will be below their prescribed values. Owing to the typical small size of impact craters in these materials, the local flow fields over these craters and the ablative process afford some margin in thermal protection designs for these locally reduced performance values. In this work, tests to develop ballistic performance models for thermal protection materials typical of those being used on Orion are discussed. A density profile as a function of depth of a typical monolithic ablator and substructure system is shown in Figure 1a.

Miller, J. E.

Analytical Ion Thruster Discharge Performance Model

A particle and energy balance model of the plasma discharge in magnetic ring-cusp ion thrusters has been developed. The model follows the original work of Brophy in the development of global 0-D discharge models that utilize conservation of particles into and out of the thruster and conservation of energy into the discharge and out of the plasma in the form of charged particles to the walls and beam and plasma radiation. The present model is significantly expanded over Brophy's original work by including self-consistent calculations of the internal neutral pressure, electron temperature, primary electron density, electrostatic ion confinement (due to the ring-cusp fields), plasma potential, discharge stability, and time dependent behavior during recycling. The model only requires information on the thruster geometry, ion optics performance and electrical inputs such as discharge voltage and currents, etc. to produce accurate performance curves of discharge loss versus mass utilization efficiency. The model has been benchmarked against the NEXIS Laboratory Model (LM) and Development Model (DM) thrusters, and successfully predicts the thruster discharge loss as a function of mass utilization efficiency for a variety of thrusters. The discharge performance model will be presented and results showing ion thruster performance and stability given.

discharge chambers

Performance Model for Reversible Fluid Balloons

The Altitude Control Experiment (ALICE) is a balloon system that consists of a helium lifting balloon and a buoyancy-controlling freon R114 balloon. Condensation of freon gas in the cooler upper atmosphere and vaporization of liquid freon in the warmer lower atmosphere can be effectively used to adjust the net buoyant force so that the balloon system may float between desirable ranges of altitudes.This report summarizes efforts to produce an analytical model to predict the performance of this type of altitude control balloon in the earth's atmosphere. Various interactive parameters that are influential to the dynamics of the system were identified and treated. The analytical model developed herein correlated well with three ALICE day flight trajectories and one ALICE night flight trajectory in the earth's atmosphere. A similar approach can be applied to the design of a Venusian balloon system that could repeatedly travel to the lower, hot altitudes or surface of Venus for imaging or science experiments and then float higher in order to cool the electronics.

balloon

On modeling performance of open-loop mechanisms

A technique is presented for modeling the performance of open-loop mechanisms or systems, where performance is measured by success or failure as a function of the selected target for movement along a constrained trajectory and without corrective feedback. A modification of signal detection theory is used, which normalizes dissimilar data and indicates two independent parameters of performance: (1) discriminability and (2) optimality of the distribution of selected moves. An illustrative application is made to experimental data.

Sheridan, T. B.