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At least 91 records · Page 5

Synoptic Typing of Multiduration, Heavy Precipitation Records in the Northeastern United States: 1895–2017

Much of the previous research on total and heavy precipitation trends across the northeastern United States (herein, the Northeast) used daily precipitation totals over relatively short periods of record, which do not capture the full range of climate variability and change. Less well understood are the characteristics of long-term changes and synoptic patterns in longer-duration heavy precipitation events across the Northeast. A multiduration (1, 2, 3, 7, 14, and 30 days), multi-return-interval (2, 5, 10, and 50 years) precipitation dataset was used to diagnose changes in various types of precipitation events across the Northeast from 1895 to 2017. Increasing trends were found in all duration and return-interval event combinations with the rarest, longest duration events increasing at faster rates than more-frequent, shorter-duration ones. Daily 850-hPa geopotential height patterns associated with precipitation events were extracted from rotated principal component analysis and k -means clustering analysis, which allowed for the main synoptic types present as well as their structure and evolution to be analyzed. The daily synoptic patterns thus identified were found to be similar across all durations and return intervals and included coastal low (Northeasters, tropical cyclones, and predecessor rain events), deep trough, East Coast trough, zonal, and high pressure patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nowcasting Earthquakes: Imaging the Earthquake Cycle in California With Machine Learning

We propose a new machine learning-based method for nowcasting earthquakes to image the time-dependent earthquake cycle. The result is a timeseries that may correspond to the process of stress accumulation and release. The timeseries are constructed by using principal component analysis of regional seismicity. The patterns are found as eigenvectors of the cross-correlation matrix of a collection of seismicity timeseries in a coarse grained regional spatial grid (pattern recognition via unsupervised machine learning). The eigenvalues of this matrix represent the relative importance of the various eigenpatterns. Using the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, we compute the weighted correlation timeseries of the regional seismicity. This timeseries has the property that the weighted correlation generally decreases prior to major earthquakes in the region, and increases suddenly just after a major earthquake occurs. As in a previous paper, we find that this method produces a nowcasting timeseries that resembles the hypothesized regional stress accumulation and release process characterizing the earthquake cycle. We then address the problem of whether the timeseries contain information regarding future large earthquakes. For this, we compute a receiver operating characteristic and determine the decision thresholds for several future time periods of interest (optimization via supervised machine learning). We find that signals can be detected that can be used to characterize the information content of the timeseries. These signals may be useful in assessing present and near-future seismic hazards.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Voltron Compatible Whole Building Root-Fault Detection and Diagnosis

Buildings consume more than 40% of primary energy in the U.S. Malfunctioning sensors, components, and control systems, as well as degrading components in Heating, Ventilating and Air-conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems are main reasons for energy waste and unsatisfactory indoor environment. Field studies have shown that an energy saving of 5-30% of total building energy consumption and improved indoor air quality can be achieved by simply applying automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD), followed by corrections even if these are not done in real time. Extensive research has been made on the development of component level AFDD tools in the past two decades. However, in recent years, the development of method for a whole building level AFDD has received much attention. Here, a whole building fault refers to a fault happening in one subsystem but impact on more than one subsystems, or has a significant impact on building performances, such as building’s energy consumption. Existing component level AFDD tools could fail to detect or give false alarm for faults that trigger abnormalities in multiple subsystems. Isolating such whole building faults, which have impacts on multiple subsystems, is also challenging by simply using component based AFDD solutions. On the other hand, it might be more cost-effective for medium- or small-sized commercial buildings that have subsystems (e.g. primary cooling subsystem, air loop subsystem, heating subsystem, lighting subsystem, etc.) to install one whole building level AFDD tool, rather than many component level AFDD tools, to focus on significant faults. The focus of this project is firstly to provide training opportunities in building AFDD research area for undergraduate students and to develop a workforce pipeline in building sciences. The objective of the proposed research activities is to develop cost-effective and scalable AFDD solutions for whole building level faults. The developed AFDD solution is VOLTTRONTM compatible to further increase its plug-n-play capacity and the market penetration. VOLTTRONTM is an open-source innovative distributed control and sensing software platform developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. A VOLTTRONTM compatible AFDD tool brings the benefits such as low-cost deployment, and better building to grid integration, etc. The performance of the developed whole building AFDD tools is evaluated using data collected from a mixed-use medium-sized university campus building. Another significant goal of this project is to engage undergraduate students in research activities and expose them to building control and AFDD fields. A demonstration building – Nesbitt Hall at Drexel University is identified for this study. This demonstration building has a typical HVAC system configuration, which includes a water-cooled chiller system, three variable air volume (VAV) air handling unit (AHU) systems, and a hydronic heating system. Faults, that are expected to have a whole building level impact, are artificially implemented in this demonstration building for three different seasons. Building data have been collected in this project, which include fault free building automation system (BAS) data and BAS data that contain system behaviors caused by artificially implemented and naturally occurred faults. These collected data are used to evaluate the developed whole building AFDD tools. A data-driven method, which includes a weather and schedule-based pattern matching (WPM) method and Feature based Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) method, is developed for whole building level fault detection. Parameter sensitivity tests, including snapshot window size, data sample searching pool size, etc., are implemented to evaluate the impacts of various WPM-FPCA parameters. A data-driven and expert knowledge/rule-based method using Bayesian Network (BN) and WPM is developed for whole building level fault diagnosis. The developed WPM-BN method, which includes a two-layer BN structure model and BN parameters, are either learned from baseline data or developed from expert knowledge. The developed whole building AFDD tools are evaluated using BAS data collected from the demonstration building. Using the evaluation data set, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method is evaluated under two different Principle Component (PC) retention rates, i.e., 0.65 retention rate and 0.95 retention rate. It is observed that when using 0.65 PC retention rate, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method achieves a 79% fault detection rate (this rate reaches to 85% when including the six make-up fault test cases discussed in the next bullet), while when using 0.95 PC retention rate, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method achieves 100% fault detection rate (this rate remains to be 100% when including the six make-up fault test cases). Under both PC retention rates, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method demonstrates 0% false alarm rates. Using the evaluation data set, the developed WPM-BN fault diagnosis method has successfully diagnosed thirteen (13) faults out of the fourteen (14) fault test cases. The one mis-diagnosed case exhibits fewer fault symptoms in different subsystems, when compared with other fault test cases. Overall speaking, the developed whole building AFDD solutions demonstrate satisfactory fault detection/diagnosis accuracy with very low false alarm rate. Lastly, a survey and market study has been performed to understand the existing AFDD market, including its gaps and needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the power output of some idealized source configurations with one or more characteristic dimensions

The calculation of power output from a (finite) linear array of equidistant point sources is investigated with allowance for a relative phase shift and particular focus on the circumstances of small/large individual source separation. A key role is played by the estimates found for a twin parameter definite integral that involves the Fejer kernel functions, where N denotes a (positive) integer; these results also permit a quantitative accounting of energy partition between the principal and secondary lobes of the array pattern. Continuously distributed sources along a finite line segment or an open ended circular cylindrical shell are considered, and estimates for the relatively lower output in the latter configuration are made explicit when the shell radius is small compared to the wave length. A systematic reduction of diverse integrals which characterize the energy output from specific line and strip sources is investigated.

Levine, H.↗

Fractures on Europa - Possible response of an ice crust to tidal deformation

The surface of Europa contains a planetwide system of low albedo lineaments which have been interpreted as fractures in an icy crust. The pattern of fractures on the surface consists of radial and concentric fractures having the general appearance of tension cracks within a region near the antipode of the sub-Jupiter point. Outside this region, linear fractures intersect at angles near 60 deg, suggesting that they are conjugate shear fractures. The orientation of this pattern on the surface suggests that a principal axis of the deformation that produced the fractures was approximately radial to Jupiter. Fracturing may thus be consistent with an origin due to cyclical tidal deformation resulting from orbital eccentricity. Orbital eccentricity related to a relatively recent establishment of orbital resonance among the Galilean satellites may explain the presence of fractures in a relatively young, lightly cratered planetary surface.

Helfenstein, P.↗

Thermoelastic stress in oceanic lithosphere due to hotspot reheating

The effect of hotspot reheating on the intraplate stress field is investigated by modeling the three-dimensional thermal stress field produced by nonuniform temperature changes in an elastic plate. Temperature perturbations are calculated assuming that the lithosphere is heated by a source in the lower part of the thermal lithosphere. A thermal stress model for the elastic lithosphere is calculated by superposing the stress fields resulting from temperature changes in small individual elements. The stress in an elastic plate resulting from a temperature change in each small element is expressed as an infinite series, wherein each term is a source or an image modified from a closed-from half-space solution. The thermal stress solution is applied to midplate swells in oceanic lithosphere with various thermal structures and plate velocities. The results predict a stress field with a maximum deviatoric stress on the order of 100 MPa covering a broad area around the hotspot plume. The predicted principal stress orientations show a complicated geographical pattern, with horizontal extension perpendicular to the hotspot track at shallow depths and compression along the track near the bottom of the elastic lithosphere.

Zhu, Anning↗

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Climatology↗

Relative effectiveness of kinetic analysis vs single point readings for classifying environmental samples based on community-level physiological profiles (CLPP)

The relative effectiveness of average-well-color-development-normalized single-point absorbance readings (AWCD) vs the kinetic parameters mu(m), lambda, A, and integral (AREA) of the modified Gompertz equation fit to the color development curve resulting from reduction of a redox sensitive dye from microbial respiration of 95 separate sole carbon sources in microplate wells was compared for a dilution series of rhizosphere samples from hydroponically grown wheat and potato ranging in inoculum densities of 1 x 10(4)-4 x 10(6) cells ml-1. Patterns generated with each parameter were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to test relative resolving power. Samples of equivalent cell density (undiluted samples) were correctly classified by rhizosphere type for all parameters based on DFA analysis of the first five PC scores. Analysis of undiluted and 1:4 diluted samples resulted in misclassification of at least two of the wheat samples for all parameters except the AWCD normalized (0.50 abs. units) data, and analysis of undiluted, 1:4, and 1:16 diluted samples resulted in misclassification for all parameter types. Ordination of samples along the first principal component (PC) was correlated to inoculum density in analyses performed on all of the kinetic parameters, but no such influence was seen for AWCD-derived results. The carbon sources responsible for classification differed among the variable types with the exception of AREA and A, which were strongly correlated. These results indicate that the use of kinetic parameters for pattern analysis in CLPP may provide some additional information, but only if the influence of inoculum density is carefully considered. c2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Center KSC↗

Search for patterns by combining cosmic-ray energy and arrival directions at the Pierre Auger Observatory

Energy-dependent patterns in the arrival directions of cosmic rays are searched for using data of the Pierre Auger Observatory. We investigate local regions around the highest-energy cosmic rays with E ≥ 6×10 19 eV by analyzing cosmic rays with energies above E ≥ 5×10 18 eV arriving within an angular separation of approximately 15°. We characterize the energy distributions inside these regions by two independent methods, one searching for angular dependence of energy-energy correlations and one searching for collimation of energy along the local system of principal axes of the energy distribution. No significant patterns are found with this analysis. As a result, the comparison of these measurements with astrophysical scenarios can therefore be used to obtain constraints on related model parameters such as strength of cosmic-ray deflection and density of point sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of materials informatics to vapor-grown carbon nanofiber/vinyl ester nanocomposites through self-organizing maps and clustering techniques

Data mining and knowledge discovery techniques were employed herein to acquire new information on the viscoelastic, flexural, compressive, and tensile properties of vapor-grown carbon nanofiber (VGCNF)/vinyl ester (VE) nanocomposites. Formulation and processing factors (curing environment, presence or absence of dispersing agent, mixing method, VGCNF weight fraction, VGCNF type, high-shear mixing time, and sonication time) and testing temperature were utilized as inputs and the true ultimate strength, true yield strength, engineering elastic modulus, engineering ultimate strength, flexural modulus, flexural strength, storage modulus, loss modulus, and tan delta were selected as outputs. The data mining and knowledge discovery algorithms used in this study include self-organizing maps (SOMs) and clustering techniques. SOMs demonstrated that temperature and tan delta had the most significant effects on the output responses followed by the VGCNF high-shear mixing time, and sonication time. SOMs were also used to produce optimal responses using certain combination(s) of inputs. Fuzzy C-means algorithm (FCM) was also applied to discover patterns in the nanocomposite behavior subsequent to a principal component analysis (PCA), which is a dimensionality reduction technique. Utilizing these techniques, the nanocomposite specimens were separated into different clusters based on the testing temperature (30 °C and 120 °C being the most dominant responses), tan delta, high-shear mixing time, and sonication time. Furthermore, the VGCNF/VE specimens were separated into a cluster based on their viscoelastic responses (storage and loss moduli) at the same temperature. The FCM results indicate that, while all nanocomposite properties in the new framework are essential, the viscoelastic responses of the VGCNF/VE specimens are the most significant. Here this work highlights the utility of data mining and knowledge discovery techniques in the context of materials informatics for the discovery of patterns and trends in the material behavior that are not immediately known.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Eigenvector analysis of some observed and model-generated Climatological fields

An empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly mean synoptic fields computed with a general circulation model and the corresponding observed climatological patterns is presented. A computer program was used to compute the principal components of the data matrices representing global maps of various observed and model-generated climatological fields. The variables analyzed were: 500mb geopotential height, 850 mb temperature, and sea level pressure. It is concluded that eigenvector analysis of observed and model-generated synoptic climatological fields is a useful diagnostic aid in the evaluation of global model simulation. The maps of any climatological variables are readily decomposed into a few orthogonal components which account for a large fraction of the total spatial variance, and the observed and model-generated patterns may then be compared in terms of these principal components of the original data matrices.

Dennis, M.↗

Drivers of nitrogen transfer in stream food webs across continents

Studies of trophic-level material and energy transfers are central to ecology. The use of isotopic tracers has now made it possible to measure trophic transfer efficiencies of important nutrients and to better understand how these materials move through food webs. We analyzed data from thirteen 15 N-ammonium tracer addition experiments to quantify N transfer from basal resources to animals in headwater streams with varying physical, chemical, and biological features. N transfer efficiencies from primary uptake compartments (PUCs; heterotrophic microorganisms and primary producers) to primary consumers was lower (mean: 11.5%, range: <1%-43%) than N transfer efficiencies from primary consumers to predators (mean: 80%, range: 5%- >100%). Total N transferred (as a rate) was greater in streams with open compared to closed canopies and overall N transfer efficiency generally followed a similar pattern, although was not statistically significant. We used principal component analysis to condense a suite of site characteristics into two environmental components. Total N uptake rates among trophic levels were best predicted by the component that was correlated with latitude, DIN:SRP, GPP:ER, and % canopy cover. N transfer efficiency did not respond consistently to environmental variables. Here, our results suggest that canopy cover influences N movement through stream food webs because light availability and primary production facilitate N transfer to higher trophic levels.

15N↗

Search for magnetically-induced signatures in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We search for signals of magnetically-induced effects in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory. We apply two different methods. One is a search for sets of events that show a correlation between their arrival direction and the inverse of their energy, which would be expected if they come from the same point-like source, they have the same electric charge and their deflection is relatively small and coherent. We refer to these sets of events as “multiplets”. The second method, called “thrust”, is a principal axis analysis aimed to detect the elongated patterns in a region of interest. We study the sensitivity of both methods using a benchmark simulation and we apply them to data in two different searches. The first search is done assuming as source candidates a list of nearby active galactic nuclei and starburst galaxies. The second is an all-sky blind search. We report the results and we find no statistically significant features. We discuss the compatibility of these results with the indications on the mass composition inferred from data of the Pierre Auger Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Environmental effects on aerosol–cloud interaction in non-precipitating marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the eastern North Atlantic

Abstract. Over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ocean, a total of 20 non-precipitating single-layer marine boundary layer (MBL) stratus and stratocumulus cloud cases are selected to investigate the impacts of the environmental variables on the aerosol–cloud interaction (ACIr) using the ground-based measurements from the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility at the ENA site during 2016–2018. The ACIr represents the relative change in cloud droplet effective radius re with respect to the relative change in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration at 0.2 % supersaturation (NCCN,0.2 %) in the stratified water vapor environment. The ACIr values vary from −0.01 to 0.22 with increasing sub-cloud boundary layer precipitable water vapor (PWVBL) conditions, indicating that re is more sensitive to the CCN loading under sufficient water vapor supply, owing to the combined effect of enhanced condensational growth and coalescence processes associated with higher Nc and PWVBL. The principal component analysis shows that the most pronounced pattern during the selected cases is the co-variations in the MBL conditions characterized by the vertical component of turbulence kinetic energy (TKEw), the decoupling index (Di), and PWVBL. The environmental effects on ACIr emerge after the data are stratified into different TKEw regimes. The ACIr values, under both lower and higher PWVBL conditions, more than double from the low-TKEw to high-TKEw regime. This can be explained by the fact that stronger boundary layer turbulence maintains a well-mixed MBL, strengthening the connection between cloud microphysical properties and the below-cloud CCN and moisture sources. With sufficient water vapor and low CCN loading, the active coalescence process broadens the cloud droplet size spectra and consequently results in an enlargement of re. The enhanced activation of CCN and the cloud droplet condensational growth induced by the higher below-cloud CCN loading can effectively decrease re, which jointly presents as the increased ACIr. This study examines the importance of environmental effects on the ACIr assessments and provides observational constraints to future model evaluations of aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computer processed LANDSAT data

Background information and exercises are provided to: (1) establish or expand understanding of the concepts, methods, and terminology of computer processing of image producing data; (2) develop insight into the advantages of computer based image processing compared with the photointerpretation approach for processing, classifying, interpreting, and applying remote sensing data; (3) foster a broad perspective on the principal of the main techniques for image enhancement, pattern recognition, and thematic classification; (4) appreciate the pros and cons of batch and interactive modes of image analysis; (5) examine and evaluate some specific computer generated products for subscenes in Pennsylvania and New Jersey; and (6) interrelate these particular examples of output with more theoretical explanations of computer processing strategies and procedures.

Source record↗

Decadal Air-Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic Based on Observations and Modeling Results

The decadal, 12-14 year, cycle observed in the North Atlantic SST and tide gauge data was examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, COADS data and an ocean model simulation. Besides this decadal mode, a shorter, subdecadal period of about 8 years exists in tide gauge data north of 40N, in the subpolar SST and in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and in subpolar winter heat flux values. The decadal cycle is a well separated mode in a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for a time series of SST EOF mode 1 with a center over the Gulf Stream extension. Tide gauge and SST data are consistent in that both show a significant subdecadal periodicity exclusively in the subpolar gyre, but in subtropics the 12-14 year period is the prominent, but nonstationary, decadal signal. The main finding of this study is that this 12-14 year cycle can be constructed based on the leading mode of the surface heat flux. This connection to the surface heat flux implicates the participation of the thermohaline circulation in the decadal cycle. During the cycle starting from the positive index phase of NAO, SST and oceanic heat content anomalies are created in subtropics due to local heat flux and intensification of the thermohaline circulation. The anomalies advect to the subpolar gyre where they are amplified by local heat flux and are part of the negative feedback of thermohaline circulation on itself. Consequently the oceanic thermohaline circulation slows down and the opposite cycle starts. The oscillatory nature would not be possible without the active atmospheric participation in the cycle, because it provides the unstable interaction through heat flux, without it, the oceanic mode would be damped. This analysis suggests that the two principal modes of heat flux variability, corresponding to patterns similar to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Atlantic (WA), are part of the same decadal cycle and an indirect measure of the north-south movement of the storm tracks.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗