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At least 91 records · Page 5

Stacking the odds in favor of a space propulsion jackpot

When faced with a variety of technical options to solve a problem, program planners often try to identify one potential winner, then channel their resources into this option. The more scarce their resources are perceived to be, the more likely they are to fall into this trap of illogic. The real ideal solution could well be an optimum combination of options, not just one. Many propulsion opportunities are tantalizing solutions to the potentially high cost of travelling to other planets. Among these opportunities, nuclear thermal rockets (NTR), nuclear electric propulsion (NEP), and asteroid derived propellants stand out as high-payoff modest-challenge options, as near term as they are resolved to be made. But which to choose? Or should higher risk higher payoff technology be opted for, such as fusion? The approach advocated here, technoflex, is one that addresses NTR, NEP, and asteroid propellants in harmony rather than in isolation. Technoflex is technology rich, and option flexible. Technoflex should cost roughly the same as a classic phased technology elimination approach. The synergistic benefits amongst these three options, how they can be efficiently pursued together, and how they can fit with longer range technologies are stressed. Even if no single option reaches its highest expectations, the combinations of any two partial winners would still give big dividends. These combinations are cheap propellants in space, dual mode high thrust/low thrust, or versatile propellant NTR. The triple payoff is excellent, even if all three options would pan out below expectations. If only one option reaches its potential, it could make the other two still worth their investment. If all three options meet full expectations, the triple payoff is a space propulsion jackpot which makes concern about the initial investment ludicrous as well as open up the solar system to expedient exploration.

Willoughby, Alan J.↗

Case Study for Lunar ISRU Systems Utilizing Polar Water

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is key to long term presence at any extraterrestrial destination. Current NASA direction is to achieve a sustainable presence on the lunar surface by 2028. Mission plans currently target the lunar South Pole to leverage the extended periods of solar illumination and allows for potential access to water ice in the permanently shadowed areas around the poles. With water, it is possible to produce both fuel and oxidizer to fully refuel a vehicle. In order to address ISRU infusion into mission planning, a study of an end-to-end ISRU propellant production system was initiated to assess ISRU architectures and obtain mass and power estimates for each. The results of these case studies will be presented. For this study, The ISRU system architecture involved two sites; the mine site in a shadowed crater where water ice is excavated and extracted from the regolith and the propellant production site at an illuminated ridge where the water is processed into liquefied O2 and H2 propellants. Fixed hardware would be emplaced at each site, with two alternating water tankers to transport water between them. Notional lunar sites were identified for this architecture for baseline environmental parameters. Technology solutions for each subsystem were selected based on those with the highest fidelity models or those that have empirical laboratory data to anchor to. While power needs were identified for each location, a power solution was not prescribed, therefore the masses presented do not include surface power systems. The baseline case in this study assumed that 10 mT of oxygen, along with enough hydrogen to support a propulsion mixture ratio of 6, must be produced in 225 days. Therefore 15 mT of water would need to be collected and processed. The baseline solution resulted in a system mass of5 mT and a total required power of 68kW. The majority of the mass was split between the ridge site system and the two water tankers (2.6 mTand 1.8mTrespectively). The majority of the required power was with three subsystems at approximately 20 kW each: hydrogen liquefaction, electrolysis, and the water extractor subsystem. Trades for four key variables are also presented, namely production rate, water concentration, dry overburden depth, and number of water transport trips. This can be compared to a system that targets oxygen from the minerals in the surface regolith material. A carbothermal reduction reactor system was used for this comparison. The use of direct solar thermal energy to process the regolith and the ease of access of the resource resulted in significantly lower values for the oxygen case: approximately 2.7 mT and 11.8 kW. However, the mass trade would favor the water case over successive missions where the hydrogen up-mass of 2 mT per mission will accrue against the oxygen system.1Aerospace Research Engineer, Chemical and Thermal Propulsion Systems Branch, Senior Member.2Mechanical Engineer, Propulsion and Power Division/Energy Conversion Systems, 2101 Nasa Pkwy/Mailcode EP3 Houston, TX 77058, AIAA member.

Lunar↗

Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower Hybrid: Site Suitability Assessment

In 2024, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) initiated a technical-assistance project to support Cat Creek Energy, LLC, (CCE) in evaluating site suitability for the proposed Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) project in south-central Idaho near Mackay Reservoir. The Corral Summit facility incorporates battery storage and photovoltaic (PV) solar arrays in a Trybrid configuration to deliver large-volume long-duration (LVLD) storage solutions for rural electric cooperatives in eastern Idaho. The evaluation process focused on determining the most-suitable location for the upper reservoir of the PSH system, guided by a comprehensive assessment framework spanning multiple categories, including physical characteristics, environmental constraints, building infrastructure, regulatory constraints, cultural resources and sensitivity, social factors, and power market and grid integration. Each site was analyzed based on a ranking scale (0–1), which scores ranging from “severely disfavored” to “highly favored,” allowing detailed comparisons of site-specific conditions. Categories such as hydraulic head, utilities corridor, land ownership, and transmission-grid limitations emerged as key contributors to the overall assessment. Site 2 (Idaho Trust) demonstrated a slight advantage over Site 1 (Bureau of Land Management) primarily due to favorable outcomes in regulatory constraints, building infrastructure, and power-market integration. However, Site 1 outperformed Site 2 in factors related to physical characteristics and social factors. The report emphasizes the need for further evaluation of both sites before clear determination of which site is preferred, due to the limited information available on either site at the time of this report. Key areas of evaluation to clearly define the preferred site are ecological impacts, cultural-resource surveys, and economic-feasibility assessments. For successful project execution, recommended follow-up actions include seismic and geotechnical surveys, groundwater and habitat monitoring, regulatory reviews of water rights and right-of-way agreements, cultural engagement with local tribal governments, and enhanced stakeholder strategies. These efforts will ensure the Corral Summit Trybrid facility meets local energy needs while balancing environmental, social, and regulatory responsibilities.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower Hybrid Site Suitability Assessment (Rev.1)

In 2024, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) initiated a technical-assistance project to support Cat Creek Energy, LLC, (CCE) in evaluating site suitability for the proposed Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) project in south-central Idaho near Mackay Reservoir. The Corral Summit facility incorporates battery storage and photovoltaic (PV) solar arrays in a Trybrid configuration to deliver large-volume long-duration (LVLD) storage solutions for rural electric cooperatives in eastern Idaho. The evaluation process focused on determining the most-suitable location for the upper reservoir of the PSH system, guided by a comprehensive assessment framework spanning multiple categories, including physical characteristics, environmental constraints, building infrastructure, regulatory constraints, cultural resources and sensitivity, social factors, and power market and grid integration. Each site was analyzed based on a ranking scale (0–1), which scores ranging from “severely disfavored” to “highly favored,” allowing detailed comparisons of site-specific conditions. Categories such as hydraulic head, utilities corridor, land ownership, and transmission-grid limitations emerged as key contributors to the overall assessment. Site 2 (Idaho Trust) demonstrated a slight advantage over Site 1 (Bureau of Land Management) primarily due to favorable outcomes in regulatory constraints, building infrastructure, and power-market integration. However, Site 1 outperformed Site 2 in factors related to physical characteristics and social factors. The report emphasizes the need for further evaluation of both sites before clear determination of which site is preferred, due to the limited information available on either site at the time of this report. Key areas of evaluation to clearly define the preferred site are ecological impacts, cultural-resource surveys, and economic-feasibility assessments. For successful project execution, recommended follow-up actions include seismic and geotechnical surveys, groundwater and habitat monitoring, regulatory reviews of water rights and right-of-way agreements, cultural engagement with local tribal governments, and enhanced stakeholder strategies. These efforts will ensure the Corral Summit Trybrid facility meets local energy needs while balancing environmental, social, and regulatory responsibilities.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Data Catalog Software for Hanford Site Environmental Datasets

Environmental information and data underpin achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) mission at the Hanford Site. The Hanford Environmental Data Management (HEDM) Program is the DOE Richland Operations Office (RL) approach to develop and implement a formal program for managing environmental data and the associated records, materials, and systems at the Hanford Site. The current project, contract, organization, and contractor-specific efforts at managing environmental data sets are insufficient to provide orderly, long-term, site-wide access. A vital element to be created within the HEDM program plan is a catalog of data sources, called the Hanford Environmental Information and Data Index (HEIDI), that will enable long-term access and retrievability for the multiple independent sources of data that might otherwise be difficult to discover. This report compares leading open source and commercial data catalog platforms using criteria to assess the functionality needed to develop the HEIDI catalog of Hanford data sources that connects and exchanges data with established Hanford Local Area Network (HLAN) enterprise information technology systems. Proprietary platforms evaluated included ArcGIS Enterprise Sites, Junar, OpenDataSoft, and Socrata, and non-proprietary platforms included Energy Data eXchange (EDX), Comprehensive Knowledge Archive Network (CKAN), and DKAN (a Drupal-based open data portal based on CKAN). Capabilities supporting data discoverability, retrieval, and archival, as well as metadata standard requirements and integration into the HLAN were rated as either failing to meet requirements (F), meeting requirements (M), or exceeding requirements by delivering additional desired features (E). The lowest rating for any capability area was assigned as the overall rating for the platform. These findings enable DOE-RL and the contractors implementing the HEDM plan to focus on candidate tools likely to meet the requirements for implementing HEIDI. All of the platforms receiving an overall rating of ‘F’ were unable to be deployed on Hanford infrastructure or within dedicated cloud resources. A propriety software-as-a-service (SaaS) model of delivering a data catalog (e.g., found in software such as Junar and OpenDataSoft) favors consistency across customers at the expense of customization and configurable roles that are needed for Hanford work. Hosting data on a shared commercial platform places limits on dataset size (maximum of 240 Mb for OpenDataSoft), a significant limitation for HEIDI implementation. EDX, a government data catalog based on CKAN, received the ‘F’ rating due to an inability to incorporate authentication from HLAN into the system. Among platforms rated ‘M’ or ‘E’, only the Socrata platform had a SaaS delivery model. In contrast to other SaaS platforms, Socrata provided custom roles and gateways that allow local datasets to be incorporated into an online catalog. Socrata also complies with the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program, a significant benefit for cloud-based management of Hanford data. The other platforms rated ‘M’ or ‘E’, ArcGIS Enterprise Sites, CKAN, and DKAN, provide fully self-hosted options, allowing for greater control and flexibility with the HEIDI catalog. These widely used tools have supportive communities of practice, extensive customization options, and demonstrated deployments that provide evidence that they can meet requirements, often deliver additional desired features, and work well with federal government systems. Completely customized alternatives built on a collection of applications were not evaluated because achieving similar performance to CKAN or DKAN requires substantial resources, especially in the absence of the active communities that have grown to support these tools. ArcGIS Enterprise Sites, Socrata, CKAN, and DKAN were evaluated as strong candidates for successful implementation with HEIDI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental investigation of flow distribution in enhanced geothermal systems with deep eutectic solvent

Geothermal energy has been recognized as a valuable alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear power, as it is renewable and reliable. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGSs) have the potential to expand geothermal energy production by enabling access to previously untapped geothermal resources. Geothermal short-circuiting poses a significant challenge to EGS development, leading to reduced heat extraction. Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) exhibits favorable thermal and rheological properties, making it a candidate for geothermal applications. Here, this paper examines Choline Chloride-Based Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) as a working fluid in geothermal applications and its potential to mitigate geothermal short-circuiting. Hydraulic experiments using a dual fracture flow loop were conducted at high temperatures. The results showed that DES exhibited higher differential pressure behavior compared to water. Flow distribution results revealed that DES enhances flow allocation within the small fracture, particularly when a temperature difference exists between fractures. Specifically, DES increased flow distribution by an average of 11% when the temperature difference was 85°C, and by 13% when the difference was 45°C, relative to water. These findings suggest that DES responds to thermal fracture differences, making it a potential remedy to address geothermal short-circuiting.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. Here, this work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth's energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account

Robert, J. Brent↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Growth rate as a link between microbial diversity and soil biogeochemistry

The growth rate of a microorganism is a simple yet profound way to quantify its impact on the world. The absolute growth rate of a microbial population reflects rates of resource assimilation, biomass production, and element transformation, some of the many ways that organisms affect Earth’s ecosystems and climate. Microbial fitness in the environment depends on the ability to reproduce quickly when conditions are favorable and adopt a survival physiology when conditions worsen, which cells coordinate by adjusting their relative growth rate. At the population level, relative growth rate is a sensitive metric of fitness, linking survival and reproduction to the ecology and evolution of populations. Techniques combining ‘omics and stable isotope probing enable sensitive measurements of growth rates of microbial assemblages and individual taxa in soil. Microbial ecologists can explore how the growth rates of taxa with known traits and evolutionary histories respond to changes in resource availability, environmental conditions, and interactions with other organisms. We anticipate that quantitative and scalable data on the growth rates of soil microorganisms, coupled with measurements of biogeochemical fluxes, will allow scientists to test and refine ecological theory and advance process-based models of carbon flux, nutrient uptake, and ecosystem productivity. Finally, measurements of in situ microbial growth rates provide insights into the ecology of populations and can be used to quantitatively link microbial diversity to soil biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.↗

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Dryland Farming Systems in Zimbabwe: A Stakeholder-Driven Integrated Multi-Model Assessment

Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.

Climate change adaptation↗

Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity Product User Guide

The Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity products provide a platform for identifying favorable areas for basin-wide collaboration using metrics derived from anticipated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing dates. The hydropower relicensing process requires long-term resource allocation by agencies, hydropower owner/operators, non-governmental organizations, and tribal, state, and federal governments. Basin-scale hydropower relicensing has begun to receive attention as a potential solution for reducing licensing timelines, costs, and uncertainty which can provide benefits to a broad spectrum of participants in the licensing process. Two products were developed: (1) an interactive web map that allows users to browse facilities and rivers of interest and uncover locations for potential collaboration based on FERC relicensing metrics summarized along river reaches and (2) a spreadsheet that contains 1,261 facilities with associated FERC relicensing metrics and that allows users to join these data to others and develop and conduct their own analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Reserve Model of Energy Storage in Day-ahead Joint Energy and Reserve Markets: A Stochastic UC Solution

With many favorable advantages including fast response ability in particular, utility-level energy storage systems (ESS) are being integrated into energy and reserve markets to help mitigate uncertain renewable resources and fluctuant demands. This paper discusses a stochastic unit commitment (UC) model to explore capabilities of ESSs in providing valuable grid services by simultaneously joining energy and reserve markets. The proposed reserve model of ESSs presents the following features: (i) two constraints are proposed to formulate ESS’s reserve provision ability in each hour via six operation modes, namely increasing/reducing the level of charge, switching to discharge, increasing/reducing the level of discharge, switching to charge; (ii) as an energy-limited asset, constraints on ESS’s reserve deliverability across multiple hours is introduced to hold enough state of charge (SOC) headroom and floor room, guaranteeing that reserves cleared in individual hours are continuously deliverable over multiple successive hours without violating operation limits. Furthermore, a scenario-based UC model, which addresses uncertainties of renewables and demands, is adopted to evaluate reserves provided by ESSs and generators. To effectively solve the stochastic UC problem, the progressive hedging algorithm with heuristic approaches is discussed. A 6-bus system and a modified IEEE 118-bus system are used to illustrate effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Why Atens Enjoy Enhanced Accessibility For Human Space Flight

In the context of human space flight (HSF), the concept of near-Earth object (NEO) accessibility is highly subjective. Whether or not a particular NEO is accessible critically depends on mass, performance, and reliability of interplanetary HSF systems yet to be designed. Such systems would certainly include propulsion and crew life support with adequate shielding from both solar flares and galactic cosmic radiation. Equally critical architecture options are relevant to NEO accessibility. These options are also far from being determined and include the number of launches supporting an HSF mission, together with whether or not consumables are to be pre-emplaced at the destination. Until the unknowns of HSF to NEOs come into clearer focus, the notion of relative accessibility is of great utility. Imagine a group of NEOs, each with nearly equal HSF merit determined from their individual characteristics relating to crew safety, scientific return, resource utilization, and planetary defense. The more accessible members of this group are more likely to be explored first. A highly accessible NEO could conceivably be deferred in favor of a less accessible HSF destination because the latter is more accessible during a programmatically desirable launch compliant mission trajectory solutions detected in association with a specific NEO. The known NEO population is then surveyed to illustrate in which regions of heliocentric semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination (a, e, i) space NEOs with large n values are mapped. The (a, e, i) mapping is also formatted such that membership in each of four NEO orbit classifications, as defined below, is evident. Amors have orbits everywhere superior to (outside of) Earth's. An Amor is therefore defined to have perihelion between 1.017 astronomical units (AU) and the maximum NEO value of 1.3 AU. As of 0 hrs Universal Time on 1 January 2011 (UT epoch 2011.0), Amors numbered 2855 in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB), comprising 37.7% of known NEOs. Apollos have orbits crossing Earth's with periods greater than Earth's. An Apollo is therefore defined to have perihelion less than 1.017 AU and a greater than 1.0 AU. As of 2011.0 UT, Apollos numbered 4080 in the SBDB, comprising 53.9% of known NEOs. Atens have orbits crossing Earth's with periods less than Earth's. An Aten is therefore defined to have aphelion greater than 0.983 AU and a less than 1.0 AU. As of 2011.0 UT, Atens numbered 618 in the SBDB, comprising 8.2% of known NEOs. Atiras have orbits everywhere inferior to (inside of) Earth's. An Atira is therefore defined to have aphelion less than 0.983 AU. As of 2011.0 UT, Atiras numbered 11 in the SBDB, comprising 0.1% of known NEOs. It is no surprise that the largest n values are chiefly associated with Apollos and Atens. Because these orbits cross Earth's, distance to be covered in a given round trip mission time delta-t can be far less than is possible for Amors or Atiras . This delta-t or the sum of mission propulsive impulse magnitudes delta-v can more frequently be minimized to enhance NHATS compliance for Apollos and Atens than is generally the case for Amors and Atiras. A less intuitive trend in NHATS results is that Atens nearly outnumber the more numerous Apollos among the most compliant NEOs as measured by n. This trend is completely out of proportion to the degree Atens are represented among the known NEO population. A theory based on geocentric NEO dynamics is presented by this paper to explain why Atens enjoy inherently greater accessibility than do Apollos. Another trend evident from mapping into (a, e, i) space is the dearth of known NEOs at low e when a < 1 AU. Underrepresentation of Atens and Atiras in the NEO catalog is at least in part attributable to observing exclusively from a perspective near Earth. Generally inferior Aten and Atira orbits are rarely, if ever, in Earth's night sky. Until a comprehensive NEO survey is conducted from an appropriateegion remote from Earth, the theory developed in this paper indicates a substantial fraction of the most accessible NEOs will remain unknown. season. Such a season is really yet another undetermined HSF architecture option. A launch season's duration will likely be measured in weeks, and it will be utilized at an indeterminate point almost certainly more than a decade in the future when HSF programmatic maturity is sufficient. Furthermore, current knowledge of the NEO population relevant to HSF is far from complete. In the 100-m-diameter class of greatest interest, only a few percent of the estimated NEO population is known [2, Figure 2.4]. Therefore, any known, lost, or fictitious NEO in a highly accessible orbit is a potential HSF destination of merit. Even if lost, fictitious, small, or hazardous, such a potential target (or another in a similar orbit) may ultimately prove to be an early HSF destination when the pertinent NEO population is more thoroughly catalogued and NEO orbits are more thoroughly maintained at high accuracy. This paper first reviews methodology and pertinent results from NASA-sponsored research performed in late 2010 and dubbed NEO HSF Accessible Targets Study (NHATS, pronounced as "gnats"). A useful accessibility metric developed during this study is n, the tally of NHATS-

Barbee, Brent↗