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DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applicability of 1D site response analysis to shallow sedimentary basins: A critical evaluation through physics-based 3D ground motion simulations

One-dimensional site response analysis (1D SRA) remains the standard practice in considering the effect of local soil deposits and predicting site-specific ground motions, although its range of applicability to realistic seismic wavefields is still in question. In this 1D approach, horizontal and vertical ground shaking are assumed to be induced by vertically propagating shear and compressional waves, respectively. A recent study based on analytical two-dimensional (2D) plane waves and simple point source earthquake simulations has shown two mechanistic limitations in this 1D modelling technique for general inclined seismic waves, that is, systematic over-prediction of the vertical motion and wave trapping in the 1D soil column. In this article, we evaluate in detail the applicability of this 1D modelling approach to realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated seismic wavefields in shallow sedimentary basins. Linear-viscoelastic 1D SRA predictions using two types of input motions that are commonly used in practice—rock outcrop and in-column motions, are compared with the reference true site response results from 3D earthquake simulations in terms of various measures in the frequency and time domain. It is shown that the horizontal motion in the 3D seismic wavefield exhibits dominant shear wave propagation phenomenon, while the vertical motion is a combined effect of compressional and shear waves and can be over-predicted by the 1D approach when the incident seismic waves are inclined. Direct evidence of the wave refraction process that leads to the vertical motion over-prediction is provided. 1D SRA with in-column inputs can yield motions that have significantly longer duration compared to the true 3D site response solution due to trapped waves, casting in doubt the frequent need for increased soil damping in existing site studies to compensate for wave attenuation due to scattering alone. Sensitivity investigation on the increase of soil profile damping by a multiplier D mul shows D mul values compatible with those found in the literature for both horizontal and vertical motions. It is shown that the level of D mul optimized for a best match of the spectral acceleration is dependent on the characteristic of the input motion and a larger D mul is typically required for the vertical component. In contrast, 1D SRA with outcrop motions predicts motions with shorter significant duration due to its inability to capture the basin-edge generated surface waves. A suite of ground motion simulations was performed to assess the sensitivity of the observations to the basin geologic structure including the velocity gradient, rock-basin impedance contrast and basin depth. The analysis results show that the accuracy of the simplified 1D procedure is dependent on the wavefield composition of both the input motions and the true 3D site response solution. While the horizontal motions in shallow sedimentary basins can, to the first order, be reasonably captured by the simplified 1D approach, 1D SRA for the vertical component is in general not reliable and contributions from inclined shear waves should be accounted for in site-specific evaluation of the vertical design ground motion.

1D assumption↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing heat pump water heater performance with embedded phase change materials thermal energy storage: First hour rating improvement and demand response operation

The increasing global emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainability has put heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) in the spotlight as an energy-efficient alternative to traditional water heating systems. However, their widespread adoption is limited by challenges such as insufficient First Hour Rating (FHR), suboptimal control mechanisms, and limited flexibility for demand response operations. Here, to address these limitations, this study proposes an innovative HPWH system integrated with embedded phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage (TES). The research introduces a novel design and control strategy that leverages optimized PCM integration to enhance thermal storage capacity, improve hot water delivery during peak demand, and increase load-shifting potential. A combination of system modeling, performance simulation, and demand response control strategy evaluation was employed to quantify the benefits of PCM integration. Results demonstrate that the proposed PCM-TES HPWH system significantly enhances FHR, with an optimal 7.0 lb. of PCM increasing FHR by over 26 %—from 62 to 78 gal—for a standard 50-gal HPWH. Additionally, under advanced demand response operation using a preheat strategy, the system reduces the percentage of control temperature out-of-band time from 65 % (conventional HPWH) to just 11.6 %, enabling a more stable and efficient hot water supply. This research contributes a novel PCM-embedded HPWH design and control framework that addresses both performance and grid-interactivity challenges. The findings offer a viable pathway to enhancing the operational efficiency, flexibility, and grid responsiveness of residential water heating systems.

Demand response control↗

DOE OSTI2025

ER stress and viral defense: Advances and future perspectives on plant unfolded protein response in pathogenesis

Viral infections pose significant threats to crop productivity and agricultural sustainability. The frequency and severity of these infections are increasing, and pathogens are evolving rapidly under the influence of climate change. This underscores the importance of exploring the fundamental mechanisms by which plants defend themselves against dynamic viral threats. One such mechanism is the unfolded protein response (UPR), which is activated when the protein folding demand exceeds the capacity of the endoplasmic reticulum, particularly under adverse environmental conditions. While the key regulators of the UPR in response to viral infections have been identified, our understanding of how they modulate the UPR to suppress plant viral infections at the molecular and genetic levels is still in its infancy. Recent findings have shown that, in response to plant viral infections, the UPR swiftly reprograms transcriptional changes to support cellular, metabolic, and physiological processes associated with cell viability. However, the underlying mechanisms and functional outcomes of these changes remain largely unexplored. Here, we highlight recent advances in plant UPR research and summarize key findings related to viral infection–induced UPR, focusing on the balance between prosurvival and prodeath strategies. We also discuss the potential of systems-level approaches to uncover the full extent of the functional link between the UPR and plant responses to viral infections.

ER stress↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpolation of computed gamma-ray detector response functions

Gamma-ray spectra measured by traditional detectors contain features that result from a combination of the effects of detector materials/geometry, the incident gamma-ray energy, and the angle of entry. The features, such as the full-energy photopeak, Compton continuum, annihilation peak, and escape peaks, are governed by simple relationships depending on incident energy and have been known for a long time. Monte Carlo computer simulations of gamma rays interacting with a detector will show these features, and with a resolution function applied, the results should look similar to real measurements. The traditional approach to creating a detector response function requires many separate simulations of monoenergetic gamma rays striking the detector. This paper presents a new approach to developing computed detector response functions. The new approach involves a much smaller number of monoenergetic gamma-ray simulations and uses interpolation to quickly generate the responses of gamma rays that were not simulated. During the interpolation process, the underlying physics equations are used to accurately compute the response of a given energy gamma ray from the small set of simulations. Such work enables accelerated generation of synthetic radiation detector data.

Detector response↗

DOE OSTI2024

A lyotropic liquid crystal-templated nanofiltration membrane with thermo- and pH-responsive 3D transport pathway

We produce controlled nanostructured membranes from cross-linking of self-assembled diacrylated poloxamers. At sufficiently high concentrations, poloxamers form lyotropic liquid crystals (LLCs), such as lamellar (L α ), cubic packing of spherical micelles, and hexagonal packing of rod-like micelles in water (H 1 ). We use the H 1 phase as a template to produce orderly packed nanofibrous membranes. The obtained membrane has a continuous 3D transport pathway and can alter its nanofiltration (NF) properties in response to changes in temperature and pH. The formulation includes Pluronic P84-diacrylate (P84DA), a thermoresponsive component that acts as both macromer and structure-directing amphiphile. P84DA facilitates changes in membrane pore size with temperature due to its thermoresponsiveness when it is in contact with water. Furthermore, the precursor contains acrylic acid (AAc) as the charged component, which upon copolymerization with P84DA, not only enables ion separation through Donnan exclusion but also imparts pH-responsive behavior for the separation of ionic species. The membrane performance is studied and compared with a commercial NF membrane (NF270). We show that the synthesized NF membrane has separation properties adjustable with temperature and pH with exceptional resistance to fouling by various solutes due to its highly hydrophilic surface. Furthermore, the membrane shows an outstanding sulfate over chloride ion selectivity, which is a requirement for salt fractionation applications. Deducted from separate experiments, the ideal chloride/sulfate selectivity for magnesium cation is about 2.38 at low ionic strengths. This study is done on a model system to show the capability of incorporating pH-responsiveness in LLC templated membranes, in which the pH-responsive range can be designed by changing the charged groups of comonomer in the formulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression-based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power-hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-assembled nanofiltration membranes with thermo- and pH-responsive behavior

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Incident Response Guide for Wind

As wind energy systems become increasingly digitized and interconnected, they face a growing array of cyber threats that can disrupt operations, compromise safety, and trigger cascading impacts across the energy ecosystem. The Wind Incident Response Guide provides a structured, wind-specific framework for preparing for, detecting, responding to, and recovering from cyber incidents. Drawing on lessons from field demonstrations, cyber-physical testbeds, and stakeholder engagement across the wind sector, this guide integrates technical, operational, and regulatory considerations to support asset owners, operators, and responders. It outlines key roles and responsibilities, maps incident response phases to wind-specific scenarios, and highlights applicable laws, regulations, standards, and best practices. By tailoring general cybersecurity principles to the unique architectures and operational constraints of wind systems—including remote access, legacy components, and environmental interfaces—this guide aims to enhance resilience, reduce response time, and support coordinated action across public and private stakeholders. It is intended as a practical resource for utilities, developers, regulators, and emergency managers working to secure the future of wind energy.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems with High Penetration of Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression- based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power- hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Asymmetric response of cross-equatorial ocean heat transport to latitudinal thermal forcing in CESM

The partitioning of cross-equatorial heat transport between the atmosphere and the ocean is investigated through a series of fully coupled experiments, where external radiative forcing is applied over different latitudinal bands. The modeling results reveal a first-order collaborative relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere. In response to low-latitude perturbations, the cross-equatorial heat transport is realized mainly through the atmosphere, as the total ocean heat transport (OHT) is largely offsets by its horizontal gyre component. However, as perturbations shift to higher latitudes in both hemispheres, the OHT responses become more important. Here, we also find a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in the cross-equatorial heat transport, with the OHT contribution being more important in the Southern Hemisphere. This asymmetry is mainly attributed to different responses in the changes of the ocean circulation. When the radiative forcing is placed over the Southern Ocean, a buoyancy-driven clockwise cell is generated that extends from the Southern Ocean into the tropics in both the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic basins, effectively transporting energy to the northern hemisphere. Conversely, when the radiative forcing is placed over the northern high latitudes, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is responsible for the anomalous southward heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Phase of Responsivity and Noise Sources in Frequency-Domain Multiplexed Readout of Transition Edge Sensor Bolometers

Abstract Cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments have deployed focal planes with $$\mathcal {O}(10^{4})$$ O ( 10 4 ) transition edge sensor (TES) bolometers cooled to sub-Kelvin temperatures by multiplexing the readout of many TES channels onto a single pair of wires. Digital Frequency-domain Multiplexing (DfMux) is a multiplexing technique used in many CMB polarization experiments, such as the Simons Array, SPT-3 G, and EBEX. The DfMux system studied here uses LC filters with resonant frequencies ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 MHz connected to an array of TESs. Each detector has an amplitude-modulated carrier tone at the resonant frequency of its accompanying LC resonator. The signal is recovered via quadrature demodulation where the in-phase (I) component of the demodulated current is in phase with the complex admittance of the circuit and the quadrature (Q) component is orthogonal to I. Observed excess current noise in the Q component is consistent with fluctuations in the resonant frequency. This noise has been shown to be non-orthogonal to the phase of the detector’s responsivity. We present a detailed analysis of the phase of responsivity of the TES and noise sources in our DfMux readout system. Further, we investigate how modifications to the TES operating resistance and bias frequency can affect the phase of noise relative to the phase of the detector responsivity, using data from Simons Array to evaluate our predictions. We find that both the phase of responsivity and phase of noise are functions of the two tuning parameters, which can be purposefully selected to maximize signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring thermomechanical response of large-format printed polymer composite structures via digital image correlation

Large-format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is a branch of additive manufacturing (AM) research with the ability to create large structures typically measuring several meters in scale. LFAM is advantageous for tooling applications, not only because it offers the ability to create complex geometries not easily made using subtractive manufacturing processes, but the cost savings of pelletized feedstock used by these systems result in larger parts printed at faster speeds than traditional AM systems. Fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) is a commonly used feedstock material in LFAM structures because it reduces the distortion experienced during printing. However, FRP introduces highly anisotropic thermomechanical properties and contributes to a nonhomogeneous microstructure that can result in critical distortion of dimensions during tooling. Measuring the global thermomechanical response of LFAM structures requires a more representative method that accounts for not only anisotropic properties but also the nonhomogeneous nature of the final part. This is where traditional techniques to measure thermomechanical response, such as thermomechanical analysis (TMA), fall short as they assume homogeneity. This study evaluated the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of LFAM structures as measured by TMA as compared to a novel digital image correlation oven (DIC Oven) system. The LFAM structures were made from 20 % by weight carbon fiber reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (CF-ABS). TMA measurements showed significant variations in CTE across a single LFAM bead, confirming the need for a global technique that captures overall thermomechanical response. The CTE values measured using the DIC Oven compared well to average TMA values obtained from localized measurements across the sample. The DIC Oven was also used to quantify the effects of different layer orientations on thermomechanical properties, which cannot be easily captured using TMA. A predictive model was also developed by using localized TMA values across an LFAM bead to predict the overall thermomechanical response of an LFAM structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic response of a freely rotating butterfly valve in the advanced test reactor − dynamic coefficients modeling

Here, in evaluating the water hammer issue pertaining to the primary-coolant-regulating butterfly valve in the Advanced Test Reactor, the dynamic fluid body interaction (DFBI) approach was implemented in the analysis covered in Part I. Although DFBI modeling accurately and simultaneously solved the dynamic motion of the valve’s disk along with the flow field of the surrounding fluid, it shed little light on the reason behind such motion. For Part II, the reacting torque of the fluid on the disk was decomposed into representations of the dynamic coefficients in terms of stiffness, damping, and added mass. These were evaluated via simulations with steady-state static (stiffness), constant angular speed (damping), and variable angular speed (added mass) disks. Substituting the dynamic coefficients into Newton’s second law enabled the response trajectories to be obtained. Stable (by average) and unstable equilibrium positions and thrust tendencies of the valve were determined based on the stiffness coefficient (or static torque), the response amplitude was dampened or enlarged by the damping coefficient (minorly affected by added mass), and the response frequency was altered by the damping and added mass coefficients. Although the dynamic coefficient approach renders slightly different trajectories, due to the averaging effect of the torque in comparison to the DFBI method, the overall trend of the response aligns with the DFBI simulation, thus confirming the conclusion in Part I that a fix to the current butterfly valve is necessary.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting non-linear stress–strain response of mesostructured cellular materials using supervised autoencoder

Recent breakthroughs in advanced manufacturing capabilities have made it possible to design and print sophisticated topologies of cellular structures using diverse engineering materials such as metals, polymers, and ceramics. In these architectured materials, it is often desirable to tailor the mechanical properties by altering the unit cell topology. This necessitates an in-depth understanding of how the topology of the unit cell structure affects the macroscopic behavior of the material in both the linear and the non-linear regimes encountered under large compression. Here, we have developed a machine learning (ML) approach capable of accelerating the prediction of the stress–strain response of a polymer-based cellular structure under uniaxial confined compression. As part of generating the training data for ML, 60,000 mesostructures were generated using a relatively novel approach based on cellular automata, and their corresponding stress–strain responses were obtained from the finite element simulations. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimensionality of the stress–strain curves. With only 20 principal components, PCA captured 99.89% of the variance in the stress–strain curves while reducing the dimensionality by 5X. ML using supervised autoencoder was able to successfully speed up the prediction of the non-linear stress–strain response of a unit cell by up to 4600X. The proposed method can serve as an efficient data generation tool and a rapid means for predicting the structure–property relationship through accelerated forward modeling of cellular materials under compaction, in cases where the macroscopic stress–strain response is governed by the unit-cell topology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗