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DOE OSTI2020

A High-Speed High-Power-Density Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Permanent Magnet Traction Motor

There has been a global push for higher torque density and lower cost traction motors. The use of non-heavy rare-earth (non-HRE) permanent magnet materials in traction motors are being investigated for the sustainability, profitability and affordability of electric vehicles and to broaden their adoption. A 20,000-rpm permanent magnet traction motor using non-HRE magnet materials is proposed. A dual three-phase winding configuration driven by a segmented dual three-phase drive is proposed to reduce the current ripple, and as a result, the DC Link capacitor, as well as to ease the voltage constraint at high speed and eliminate any risk of uncontrolled regeneration. Furthermore, the dual winding configuration enables a fault tolerant design which is useful for reliability. The paper presents comprehensive electromagnetic, thermal and mechanical designs and analyses using an integrated approach. The results have shown that the design is robust against demagnetization and confirmed its thermal and mechanical viability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2011

Risk Management of Jettisoned Objects in LEO

The construction and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) has led to the release of many objects into its orbital plane, usually during the course of an extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Such releases are often unintentional, but in a growing number of cases, the jettison has been intentional, conducted after a careful assessment of the net risk to the partnership and to other objects in space. Since its launch in 1998 the ISS has contributed on average at least one additional debris object that is simultaneously in orbit with the station, although the number varies widely from zero to eight at any one moment. All of these objects present potential risks to other objects in orbit. Whether it comes from known and tracked orbiting objects or from unknown or untrackable objects, collision with orbital debris can have disastrous consequences. Objects greater than 10cm are generally well documented and tracked, allowing orbiting spacecraft or satellites opportunities to perform evasive maneuvers (commonly known as Debris Avoidance Maneuvers, or DAMs) in the event that imminent collision is predicted. The issue with smaller debris; however, is that it is too numerous to be tracked effectively and yet still poses disastrous consequences if it intercepts a larger object. Due to the immense kinetic energy of any item in orbit, collision with debris as small as 1cm can have catastrophic consequences for many orbiting satellites or spacecraft. Faced with the growing orbital debris threat and the potentially catastrophic consequences of a collision-generated debris shower originating in an orbit crossing the ISS altitude band, in 2007 the ISS program manger asked program specialists to coordinate a multilateral jettison policy amongst the ISS partners. This policy would define the acceptable risk trade rationale for intentional release of a debris object, and other mandatory constraints on such jettisons to minimize the residual risks whenever a jettison was accepted. Although ISS-related debris often presents untenable risks to the EVA crew, IVA crew, or to a departing cargo vehicle for a controlled disposal, such released objects also present a ballistic nuisance to the visiting vehicle traffic, and a potential fragmentation threat to the hundreds of other functional and debris objects whose perigees lie below the ISS orbital altitude. Thus, every such jettison decision is a conscious risk trade.

Bacon, John B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Discovery Planetary Mission Operations Concepts

The NASA Discovery Program of small planetary missions will provide opportunities to continue scientific exploration of the solar system in today's cost-constrained environment. Using a multidisciplinary team, JPL has developed plans to provide mission operations within the financial parameters established by the Discovery Program. This paper describes experiences and methods that show promise of allowing the Discovery Missions to operate within the program cost constraints while maintaining low mission risk, high data quality, and reponsive operations.

low cost planetary exploration Discovery mission o↗

NASA NTRS2015

Physiological Effect of Space on Bone Health

What makes Bone complicated? What makes space effects so unique? What steps are recommended to manage fracture risk in astronauts given NASA constraints?

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Digital Transformation for NASA Nuclear Flight Safety

The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA)’s Nuclear Flight Safety discipline is exploring opportunities to combine incremental advancements in many contributing areas in a way that produces a transformative change for how work is performed. More specifically, after providing some general NASA and space nuclear policy background, the authors will describe concepts and efforts that enable: (i) the use of objectives-d riven approaches (in concert with internal and external constraints) to establish a mission risk posture; (ii) the use of that risk posture in the planning process to risk-inform the selection of Safety and Mission Success (S&MS) methods and models; (iii) use of model-based and machine-assisted techniques to manage the complex and ponderous amount of information and interfaces that typify spaceflight efforts; (iv ) the means by which that infrastructure can directly feed an assurance case (including use of systems modelling language, ontological formulation, and semantic web technology) so as to address known weaknesses in our ability to communicate and manage that complexity; and (v) use of that case-assured framework to demonstrate that one did the adequate and sufficient S&MS work and that the S&MS work was done competently.

Donald Helton↗

DOE OSTI2021

Conformal Avoidance of Normal Organs at Risk by Perfusion-Modulated Dose Sculpting in Tumor Single-Dose Radiation Therapy

Although 24 Gy single-dose radiation therapy (SDRT) renders >90% 5-year local relapse-free survival in human solid tumor lesions, SDRT delivery is not feasible in ∼50% of oligometastatic lesions owing to interference by dose/volume constraints of a serial organ at risk (OAR). Conformal OAR avoidance is based on a hypothetical model positing that the recently described SDRT biology specifically permits volumetric subdivision of the SDRT dose, such that high-intensity vascular drivers of SDRT lethality, generated within a major tumor subvolume exposed to a high 24 Gy dose (high-dose planning target volume [PTV{sub HD]}), would equilibrate SDRT signaling intensity throughout the tumor interstitial space, rendering bystander radiosensitization of a minor subvolume (perfusion-modulated dose sculpting PTV [PTV{sub PMDS}]), dose-sculpted to meet a serial OAR dose/volume constraint. An engineered PTV{sub PMDS} may thus yield tumor ablation despite PMDS dose reduction and conformally avoiding OAR exposure to a toxic dose.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Implementation of risk-informed design allows the design team to thoroughly explore the risks of a system while iterating the operations concept, design, and requirements until the system meets mission objects and is achievable within constraints. To arrive at a space system design that is likely to meet all constraints placed upon mass, cost, performance and risk, the system requirements must be understood and traded against each other as early as the conceptual design phase. Depending on the project phase and the goals of the risk analysis, various PRA methodologies could be used to produce quantitative risk estimates to enable such a process. In order to better understand the applicability, advantages, and limitations of various PRA methodologies, a comparative analysis of three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches was performed. The three methods examined are a traditional static fault tree, a fault tree hybrid, and a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation. Each approach was used to assess a generic reaction control system (RCS) thruster pod and mission. The methods are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to the different phases of system development.

Probablistic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations

Compared to the current paradigm for crew health in low-Earth orbit and Lunar missions that rely on constant communication with Mission Control, there is an anticipated shift in medical operations for deep-space exploration missions. This shift stems from mission constraints imposed by the considerable distance from Earth, which include resource limitations due to a lack of resupply, mass, power, volume, and data limitations, challenges imposed by communication latency and the inability to evacuate in case of emergencies. To transition towards a more self-reliant medical approach, a comprehensive strategy is essential to progressively enable crew autonomy and mitigate mission success risks in the challenging environment of space. This transformative shift is collectively referred to as "Earth-Independent Medical Operations" (EIMO), signifying the gradual transfer of medical care and decision-making from terrestrial resources to space-based assets. This transition is aimed at bolstering astronaut health and performance while simultaneously reducing the overall risks associated with space missions. The constraints related to EIMO necessitate an integrated development of medical systems, featuring interoperability with mission planning, vehicle design, spacesuit design, and data architecture. This integration is vital in establishing a robust medical infrastructure that not only supports the well-being of astronauts but also ensures the success of the mission as a whole. The Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has developed a model-based Concept of Operations (ConOps) outlining an initial vision for EIMO. Within this ConOps, a comprehensive view is presented, encompassing stakeholder needs, system objectives, and system goals associated with EIMO. Additionally, it provides illustrative examples of the various activities (scenarios) for which the system will be employed during missions. The selection of these activities has been meticulous, aiming to encompass a wide spectrum of medical conditions, including those falling under different risk categories, such as low-likelihood-low-consequence, low-likelihood-high-consequence, and high-likelihood-low-consequence. The selection of these activities (scenarios) effectively encompasses the wide range of medical events situated within an assumed probability-consequence bell curve. In each scenario, at least one of the five main EIMO components identified is captured. Those EIMO components are: Pre-mission Planning, Acute and Emergent Management Decision Making, Prolonged Medical Management Decision Making, Supplies and Resource Management, and Task Load Management. The ConOps was developed by a multidisciplinary team consisting of systems engineers, scientists, and clinicians across NASA and aims to serve as an initial recommendation to gradually and safely enabling crew autonomy for Mars missions and beyond.

Earth Independent Medical Operations↗

NASA NTRS2024

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations (ConOps)

Earth Independent Medical Operations↗

NASA NTRS2014

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Ghaffarian, Reza↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2003

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

technology↗

DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1987

Surface activities on the first piloted Mars mission

The objectives of the first piloted Mars mission, in addition to safe Mars landing and return to earth for the crew, would encompass a demonstration of human working capabilities in the Martian environment, the exploration of the landing site, and the establishment of that planet's potential for the support of permanent human habitation. An evaluation is presently made of constraints on Martian service activities, mission risk considerations, and the three mission profiles that can be envisioned for total durations of 14, 21, and 35 months.

Duke, Michael B.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Environmental Signatures for Habitability: What to Measure and How to Rank the Habitability Potential of Mars

The environmental signatures for habitability are not necessarily biosignatures, even though on Earth, they are definitive proof of habitability. It is the constant overprint of the chemical signatures of life that makes it difficult to recognize the chemical and physical properties of a potentially habitable environment as distinct from an inhabited one. Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) will soon embark on a mission to Mars to assess its past or present habitability, so it is useful to examine how we measure habitability on Earth and prepare for how that approach may differ for Mars. This exercise includes: (a) articulation of fundamental assumptions about habitability, (b) an inventory of factors that affect habitability, (c) development of metrics, measurement approach and implementation, and (d) a new classification scheme for planetary habitability that goes beyond the binary "yes" or "no." There may be dozens of factors that affect habitability and they can be weighted as a function of specific environment. However a robotic, in situ investigation even on Earth has constraints that prevent the measurement of every environmental factor, so metrics must be reduced to the most relevant subset, given available time, cost, technical feasibility and scientific importance. Many of the factors could be measured with a combination of orbital data and the MSL payload. We propose that, at a minimum, a designation of high habitability potential requires the following conditions be met: (a) thermally stable with respect to extremes and frequency of fluctuation, (b) has more than one energy source, (c) sufficient chemical diversity to make compounds with covalent and hydrogen bonding, (d) can moderate ionizing radiation enough to allow a stable or evolving pool of organic molecules, (e) must have water or other high quality polar solvent, (f) must be able to renew chemical resources (e.g., plate tectonics, volcanism or something else we haven't envisioned). A measurement approach we have taken to measure habitability on Earth is : 1. Study remote sensing data, maps, etc. 2. Decide how big an area to measure. 3. Determine the spatial sampling rate. 4. Determine the temporal sampling rate. 5. Determine the order of measurements 6. Decide where to begin measurements 7. Select locations at field site and proceed While science drives each of the steps, there are additional constraints, e.g., technical, time, cost, safety (risk). This approach is also executable on Mars. Measurement of past habitability is more challenging both for Earth and Mars where access to the past means subsurface access and confrontation with unknowns about preservation of the martian past. Some environments preserve evidence of past habitability better than others, and this is where selection of the landing site to maximize the preservation potential of habitability indicators will be key. Mars presents an opportunity to discover transitional states between habitable or not, and we offer a ranking scale for planetary habitability with Mars as the second test subject: CLASS ONE Uninhabitable and likely has never been so CLASS TWO Has a high potential but no confirmed observation of life (as defined above) CLASS THREE Inhabited (we find life) 3-A Globally inhabited 3-B Primitive life; early in its evolution, but not yet globally established 3-C Exists only in refugia -- planet heading toward class four CLASS FOUR Post-habitable (there once was life, but now it's gone) MSL provides an opportunity to carefully investigate the habitability of at least one site on Mars and it will reveal much about the possible states of planetary habitability

Conrad, Pamela G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Altair Overview: Designing a Lunar Lander for 21st Century Human Space Exploration

Altair, the lunar lander element of NASA's Constellation program, was conducted in a different design environment than many other NASA projects of similar scope. Because of this relatively unique approach, there are a number of significant success stories that should be considered during the development of any future lunar landers or human spacecraft. This paper is divided into two separate themes; the first is the approach used during the conceptual design studies, including the systematic analysis cycles and the decision making process associated with each: and the second is a summary of the resulting lessons learned that were compiled after looking back at the lifetime of the Project. Altair was terminated before entering Phase B of its design, and was often criticized for being a very heavy and very large vehicle. While there was specific rationale for all of the decisions that led up to that configuration, future design cycles were specifically planned to re-address the mass challenge. Had the project continued, the deliberate, stepwise design process would have converged on an optimized lander design that balanced mass, risk, cost and capabilities. Some of the specific items that will be addressed in this paper include project development strategy, organizational approach and team dynamics, risk-informed design process, mission architecture constraints, mission key driving requirements, model-based systems engineering process, configuration studies, contingency considerations, subsystem overviews and key trade studies. The paper will conclude with a summary of the lessons identified during the Altair project and make suggestions for application to future studies.

Brown, Kendall K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Architecting the Human Space Flight Program with Systems Modeling Language (SysML)

The next generation of missions in NASA's Human Space Flight program focuses on the development and deployment of highly complex systems (e.g., Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, Space Launch System, 21st Century Ground System) that will enable astronauts to venture beyond low Earth orbit and explore the moon, near-Earth asteroids, and beyond. Architecting these highly complex system-of-systems requires formal systems engineering techniques for managing the evolution of the technical features in the information exchange domain (e.g., data exchanges, communication networks, ground software) and also, formal correlation of the technical architecture to stakeholders' programmatic concerns (e.g., budget, schedule, risk) and design development (e.g., assumptions, constraints, trades, tracking of unknowns). This paper will describe how the authors have applied System Modeling Language (SysML) to implement model-based systems engineering for managing the description of the End-to-End Information System (EEIS) architecture and associated development activities and ultimately enables stakeholders to understand, reason, and answer questions about the EEIS under design for proposed lunar Exploration Missions 1 and 2 (EM-1 and EM-2).

scheduling↗