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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Climate Database (NCDB)

The National Climate Database (NCDB) is a high resolution, bias-corrected climate dataset consisting of the three most widely used variables of solar radiation- global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI)- as well as other meteorological data. The goal of the NCDB is to provide unbiased high temporal and spatial resolution climate data needed for renewable energy modeling. The NCDB is modeled using a statistical downscaling approach with Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based climate projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX; linked below). Daily climate projections simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model 4 (CanRCM4) forced by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 or moderate emissions scenario and RCP8.5 or highest baseline emission scenario) are selected as inputs to the statistical downscaling models. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to build and calibrate statistical models.

Array↗
NASA NTRS1980

A brief review of the evidence for solar variability on the planets

An outline of the most recent and complete reviews on the history of Martian climate is presented and compared to the history of terrestrial climate. Suggestions are made on how solar luminosity changes may have affected both planets. Observations of the albedo of Titan occurring over a solar cycle are discussed, and the solar mechanisms that might be responsible for the observed albedo changes are considered.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases - An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change

Many mechanisms, including variations in solar radiation and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, compete with anthropogenic greenhouse gases as causes of global climate change. Comparisons of available data show that solar variability will not counteract greenhouse warming and that future observations will need to be made to quantify the role of tropospheric aerosols, for example.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Pesnell. William Dean↗
NASA NTRS1990

Basic Mechanisms of Solar Variability

In order to simulate the behavior of a changing Sun in a realistic way, researchers have used a perturbation analysis (the results are summarized in Endal et al. 1985). In this approach, they use a standard solar model and then vary several of the model parameters to mimic the sudden or gradual change of some physical property within the Sun. The evolution following the perturbation is followed in a physically self-consistent way, that is, hydrostatic and thermal processes occur in their normal timescales. This treatment has allowed us to determine the sensitivity of the various global parameters to physical processes affecting the solar interior, and it has guided us in defining the least complex global solar model which can address the question of climatically significant variability. Not surprisingly, magnetic fields play the crucial role. The current status of the model, what researchers have already learned from it, and the future prospects are discussed.

Sofia, Sabatino↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of Solar and Other Influences on Long-term Climate

Examples are shown of climate variability, and unforced climate fluctuations are discussed, as evidenced in both model simulations and observations. Then the author compares different global climate forcings, a comparison which by itself has significant implications. Finally, the author discusses a new climate simulation for the 1980s and 1990s which incorporates the principal known global climate forcings. The results indicate a likelihood of rapid global warming in the early 1990s.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A comprehensive solar energy system analysis data base in Huntsville, Alabama

The history of a comprehensive solar energy system analysis data base developed by NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama is presented, along with its current status. The Marshall Information Retrieval and Data Storage (MIRADS) system was chosen for the data base, and feedback systems were arranged to cope with changes in the needs of the program management for the type of data gathered. The final structure of the data base consists of 22 files divided into 6 topical sections: summaries, climatological, utility rates, architectural, equipment, and economics. The data base offers help to the solar industry in two ways: it provides information and it serves as a model for users trying to establish the climatic and socioeconomic variables they should take into account when they examine a potential market for solar energy equipment.

Goddard, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Nature of Quaternary Climate Change

Dynamic interactions between atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, driven by solar energy and modulated by atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanism, and plate tectonics produce substantial variations in Earth's climate over geologic time. Major Quaternary drivers of climate change include variations in Earth's orbital cycles, global temperature, natural atmospheric greenhouse gasses, and continental ice mass. Multiple abrupt climate perturbations with onsets of a century to decades have also occurred. Since the 1970s, geologically unprecedented rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion, industry, and agriculture have become the dominant contributors to rising global temperature, glacier and ice sheet losses, and sea level rise.

Solar variability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal and Dayurnal Planetary Albedo Variability from Six Years of DSCOVR EPIC Data

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar radiation from the Lissajous orbital position near the Lagrangian L1 point provide continuous monitoring of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere. CERES-based angle models were used to convert the near-hourly reflected radiances of the EPIC images into a climate-style planetary albedo data-point over the sunlit hemisphere. Integration over the sunlit hemispheres averages out the meteorological weather noise, but retains the seasonal and planetary-scale variability. As the Earth rotates, this generates variations in the Earth’s planetary albedo that are precisely aligned in longitude, which constitutes the dayurnal cycle. This dayurnal variability in the planetary albedo arises from planetary-scale changes in cloud radiative properties that can be directly compared to similarly sampled climate GCM output data. Six years of EPIC data have been analyzed, showing characteristic patterns in the seasonal and dayurnal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo. Much of the seasonal change in planetary albedo is associated with the changing DSCOVR viewing geometry and the change in solar declination. But throughout the year, the highest planetary albedos are observed over the Central Asia (Iraq) longitude, while the lowest planetary albedos occur over the Central Pacific longitude. For these longitudes, the relative seasonal changes in the planetary albedo are slowly varying and anti-correlated. Dayurnal amplitude maxima tend to occur during the July-September timeframe, with April-May and December exhibit distinct minima in the dayurnal amplitude. West Africa and the West Pacific longitudes likewise exhibit anti-correlated seasonal variability, while they also undergo anti-correlated short period oscillations. On the other hand, in nearby longitudes, there are short period spikes in planetary albedo of a few-days duration, as well as longer period oscillations that may range from a week to several months, that generally tend to be correlated.

Planetary Albedo↗
DOE OSTI2019

Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Power system planning aims at ensuring that sufficient supply- and demand-side assets exist to meet electricity demand at all times. For a Texas electric power system with high wind and solar penetrations, we quantify how climate change will affect supply and demand during three types of high stress periods for the power grid: high demand hours, high net demand hours, and high system ramp hours. We specifically quantify effects on demand, reductions in available thermal capacity (i.e. thermal deratings), wind and solar generation, and net demand. We estimate each using meteorological variables from five climate change projections (2041-2050) assuming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and from a reference period (1996-2005). All five projections indicate that climate change will increase demand by up to 2 GWh during high demand hours (4% of demand in the reference period) and increase net demand by up to 3 GWh during high net demand periods (6% of net demand in the reference period). All five projections also indicate thermal deratings will increase during high demand and net demand periods by up to 2 GWh and high net demand ramps will increase by up to 2 GW. Overall, our results indicate compounding effects of climate change in Texas will necessitate greater investment in peak and flexible capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Yung, Yuk L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992

From satellite observations the solar total irradiance is known to vary. Sunspot blocking, facular emission, and network emission are three identified causes for the variations. In this paper we examine several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible explanation for their nearly simultaneous variations is changes in the Sun's convective energy transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillas affecting the energy flow patterns by ensuring larger-scale eddies. A composite solar irradiance model, based upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature depatures for 1700-1992. Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices, although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the results. Over the entire three centuries, approx. 50% of the variance is modeled. Both this analysis and previous similar analyses have correlations of model solar irradiances and measured Earth surface temperatures that are significant at better than the 95% confidence level. To understand our present climate variations, we must place the anthropogenic variations in the context of natural variability from solar, volcanic, oceanic, and other sources.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Error Budget for a Calibration Demonstration System for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

A goal of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends over decadal time scales. The key to such a goal is to improving the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration across infrared and reflected solar wavelengths allowing climate change to be separated from the limit of natural variability. The advances required to reach on-orbit absolute accuracy to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps exist at NIST in the laboratory, but still need demonstration that the advances can move successfully from to NASA and/or instrument vendor capabilities for spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the radiometric calibration error budget for the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. The goal of the CDS is to allow the testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The resulting SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climatequality data collections is given. Key components in the error budget are geometry differences between the solar and earth views, knowledge of attenuator behavior when viewing the sun, and sensor behavior such as detector linearity and noise behavior. Methods for demonstrating this error budget are also presented.

radiometric calibration↗
NASA NTRS2001

Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

Shindell, Drew T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Heliophysics 2009 Roadmap and Global Change: Possibilities for Improved Understanding of the Connection

Heliophysics is the science that includes all aspects of the research needed to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth and the solar system. Six science targets: 1. Origins of Near-Earth Plasma - to understand the origin and transport of terrestrial plasma from its source to the magnetosphere and solar wind. 2. Solar Energetic Particle Acceleration and Transport - to understand how and where solar eruptions accelerate energetic particles that reach Earth. 3. Ion-Neutral Coupling in the Atmosphere - to understand how neutral winds control ionospheric variability. 4. Climate Impacts of Space Radiation - to understand our atmosphere s response to auroral, radiation belt, and solar energetic particles, and the associated effects on nitric oxide (NO) and ozone. 5. Dynamic Geospace Coupling - to understand how magnetospheric dynamics provides energy into the coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere system. 6. Heliospheric Magnetics - to understand the flow and dynamics of transient magnetic structures form the solar interior to Earth.

Spann, Jim↗
DOE OSTI2021

Annual Solar Irradiance Anomaly Features Over the USA During 1998-2017 Using NSRDB V3

Annual solar irradiance anomalies (or departures from the long-term mean annual value) have a direct impact on various phases of solar energy projects, from prefeasibility studies to technical deployment decisions. Anomalies can happen because of normal climate variability or exceptional weather patterns. This study investigates such anomalies for both global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) using Version 3 of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB V3) and surface irradiance measurements at eight U.S. locations. At each site, the annual anomaly is analyzed here by evaluating the irradiance deviation from the long-term average for each specific year from 1998–2017. A positive/negative anomaly indicates that the solar resource was higher/lower than the long-term average during that specific year. The results show that in most cases the anomaly is within ±5% for GHI and ±10% for DNI using either ground-based irradiance measurements or modeled data from the NSRDB.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗