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DOE OSTI2026

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Understanding of Jupiter's Atmosphere After the Galileo Probe Entry

Instruments on the Galileo probe measured composition, cloud properties, thermal structure. winds, radiative energy balance, and electrical properties of the Jovian atmosphere. As expected the probe results confirm some expectations about Jupiter's atmosphere, refute others, and raise new questions which still remain unanswered. This talk will concentrate on those aspects of the probe observations which either raised new questions or remain unresolved. The Galileo probe observations of composition and clouds provided some of the biggest surprises of the mission. Helium abundance measured by the probe differed significantly from the remote sensing derivations from Voyager. discrepancy between the Voyager helium abundance determinations for Jupiter and the Galileo probe value have now led to a considerably increased helium determination for Saturn. Global abundance of N in the form of ammonia was observed to be supersolar by approximately the same factor as carbon, in contrast to expectations that C/N would be significantly larger than solar. This has implications for the formation and evolution of Jupiter. The cloud structure was not what was generally anticipated, even though most previous remote sensing results below the uppermost cloud referred to 5 micron hot spots, local regions with reduced cloud opacity. The Galileo probe descended in one of these hot spots. Only a tenuous, presumed ammonium hydrosulfide, cloud was detected, and no significant water cloud or super-solar water abundance was measured. The mixing ratios as a function of depth for the condensibles ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and water, exhibited no apparent correlation with either condensation levels or with each other, an observation that is still a puzzle, although there are now dynamical models of hot spots which show promise in being able to explain such behavior. Probe tracked zonal winds show that wind magnitude increases with depth to pressures of about 4 bars, with the winds extending to at least as deep as the probe made measurements, 22 bars. Models of hot spot dynamics raise the possibility that the variation with depth of the probe measured zonal winds between 0.4 and 4 bars reflect the dynamics of the hot spot rather than the global wind pattern. Galileo upper atmosphere measurements established that there is a sharp temperature rise with altitude between about 350 and 800 km above the 1 bar pressure level, with the upper atmosphere reaching, temperatures near 900 K. The energy sources for this upper atmosphere heating are not clearly established, but various mechanisms have been proposed. These and other aspects of the Galileo probe data will be discussed.

Young, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Understanding of Jupiter's Atmosphere after the Galileo Probe Entry

Instruments on the Galileo probe measured composition, cloud properties, thermal structure, winds, radiative energy balance, and electrical properties of the Jovian atmosphere. As expected the probe results confirm some expectations about Jupiter's atmosphere, refute others, and raise new questions which still remain unanswered. This talk will concentrate on those aspects of the probe observations which either raised new questions or remain unresolved. The Galileo probe observations of composition and clouds provided some of the biggest surprises of the mission. Helium abundance measured by the probe differed significantly from the remote sensing derivations from Voyager. Discrepancy between the Voyager helium abundance determinations for Jupiter and the Galileo probe value have now led to a considerably increased helium determination for Saturn. Global abundance of N in the form of ammonia was observed to be super-solar by approximately the same factor as carbon, in contrast to expectations that C/N would be significantly larger than solar. This has implications for the formation and evolution of Jupiter. The cloud structure was not what was generally anticipated, even though most previous remote sensing results below the uppermost cloud referred to 5 micron hot spots, local regions with reduced cloud opacity. The Galileo probe descended in one of these hot spots. Only a tenuous, presumed ammomium hydrosulfide, cloud was detected, and no significant water cloud or super-solar water abundance was measured. The mixing ratios as a function of depth for the condensibles ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and water, exhibited no apparent correlation with either condensation levels or with each other, an observation that is still a puzzle, although there are now dynamical models of hot spots which show promise in being able to explain such behavior. Probe tracked zonal winds show that wind magnitude increases with depth to pressures of about 4 bars, with the winds extending to at least as deep as the probe made measurements, 22 bars. Models of hot spot dynamics raise the possibility that the variation with depth of the probe measured zonal winds between 0.4 and 4 bars reflect the dynamics of the hot spot rather than the global wind pattern. Galileo upper atmosphere measurements established that there is a sharp temperature rise with altitude between about 350 and 800 km above the 1 bar pressure level, with the upper atmosphere reaching temperatures near 900 K. The energy sources for this upper atmosphere heating are not clearly established, but various mechanisms have been proposed. These and other aspects of the Galileo probe data will be discussed.

Fonda, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Lagrangian analysis of pockets of open cells over the southeastern Pacific

Abstract. Pockets of open cells (POCs) have been shown to develop within closed-cell stratocumulus (StCu), and a large body of evidence suggests that the development of POCs result from changes in small-scale processes internal to the boundary layer rather than large-scale forcings. Precipitation is widely viewed as a key process important to POC development and maintenance. In this study, GOES-16 satellite observations are used in conjunction with MERRA-2 winds to track and compare the microphysical and environmental evolution of two populations of closed-cell StCu selected by visual inspection over the southeastern Pacific Ocean: one group that transitions to POCs and another comparison group (CLOSED) that does not. The high spatiotemporal resolution of the new GOES-16 data allows for a detailed examination of the temporal evolution of POCs in this region. We find that POCs tend to develop near the coast, last tens of hours, are larger than 104 km2, and often (88 % of cases) do not re-close before they exit the StCu deck. Most POCs are observed to form at night and tend to exit the StCu during the day when the StCu is contracting in area. Relative to the CLOSED trajectories, POCs have systematically larger effective radii, lower cloud drop number concentrations, a comparable conditional in-cloud liquid water path, and a higher frequency of more intense precipitation. Meanwhile, no systematic environmental differences other than boundary layer height are observed between POC and CLOSED trajectories. Interestingly, there are no differences in reanalysis aerosol optical depth between both sets of trajectories, which may lead one to the interpretation that differences in aerosol concentrations are not influencing POC development or resulting in a large number that re-close. However, this largely depends on the reanalysis treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions, and the product used in this study has no explicit handling of these important processes. These results support the consensus view regarding the importance of precipitation on the formation and maintenance of POCs and demonstrate the utility of modern geostationary remote sensing data in evaluating the POC life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

Interactive image processing for meteorological applications at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

The paper reviews the development of the AOIPS (Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System) system for the interactive manipulation of meteorological satellite images. A block diagram of the system is presented; both software and hardware considerations are examined; and attention is given to the Image 100 processing system and to the interactive terminal. As a example the paper examines the functions of Metpak (the software package) which involve cloud tracking and wind vector generation.

Billingsley, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Pointing errors in solar dish collectors

Mathematical analysis calculates effects of transient pointing errors in solar dish collectors treating each pointing error separately. This approach considerably simplifies programming of simulation models for tracking drive, wind effects, and other design parameters.

Hughes, R. O.↗

NASA NTRS1978

IPS activity observed as a precursor of solar induced terrestrial activity

A radio telescope designed to exploit the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) technique and locate, map, and track solar wind disturbances which result in geomagnetic disturbances, thereby providing a forecast capability, is described. Preliminary results from operation of the telescope include: (1) evidence for a precursor signal in the IPS activity with a 1-2 day lead time with respect to density enhancements which frequently give rise to geomagnetic activity; (2) detection of a spectral broadening signature which also serves as a precursor of geomagnetic activity; (3) out-of-the-ecliptic plasma density enhancements which were not detected by near-Earth, ecliptic plane spacecraft; (4) detection of 12 corotating density enhancements;(5) detection of over 80 sources which give detectable scintillation of which 45 have been used for detailed synoptic analysis and 9 for spectral analysis; and (6) measurement of 0-lag coefficient of 0.56 between density and IPS activity enhancements.

Cronyn, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Middle Atmosphere Program. Handbook for MAP, Volume 10

The contributions of ground based investigations to the study of middle atmospheric phenomena are addressed. General topics include diagnostics of the middle atmosphere from D region properties, winter anomaly, seasonal variations and disturbances, dynamics and theoretical models, ground based tracking of winds and waves, lower thermosphere phenomena, and solar-terrestrial influences.

Taubenheim, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Upwelling-Induced Primary Productivity in Coastal Waters of the Black Sea: Impact on Algorithms for Remote Sensing

This research program was a collaborative effort to investigate the impact of rapid changes in the water column during coastal upwelling, on biological and optical properties. These properties are important for constructing region or event-specific algorithms for remote sensing of pigment concentration and primary productivity and for comparing these algorithms with those used for the development of large scale maps from ocean color. We successfully achieved the primary objective of this research project which was to study in situ the dynamics of rapid spatial and temporal changes in properties of the water column during, coastal upwelling off the Crimean Coast in the Black Sea. The work was a collaborative effort between a group of biological and physical oceanographers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and from two oceanographic research institutions in the Crimea, Ukraine, located near the study site, the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI) and the Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas (IBSS). The site was an ideal experimental model, both from a technical and economic standpoint, because of the predictable summer upwelling that occurs in the region and because of the availability of both a ship on call and laboratory and remote sensing facilities at the nearby marine institutes. We used a combination of shipboard measurements and remote sensing to investigate the physical evolution of rapid upwelling events and their impact on photoplankton and water column optical properties. The field work involved a two day cruise for mooring, deployment and a three day baseline survey cruise, followed by an eleven day primary cruise during, a summer upwelling event (anticipated by monitoring local winds and tracked by remote sensing imaging). An MHI ship was outfitted and used for these purposes.

Goldman, Joel C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Application of Jason-1 Measurements to Estimate the Global Near Surface Ocean Circulation for Climate Research

The scientific objective of this research program was to utilize drifter, Jason-1 altimeter data and a variety of wind data for the determination of time mean and time variable wind driven surface currents of the global ocean. To accomplish this task has required the interpolation of 6-hourly winds on drifter tracks and the computation of the wind coherent motions of the drifters. These calculations showed that the Ekman current model proposed by Ralph and Niiler for the tropical Pacific was valid for all the oceans south of 40N latitude. Improvements to RN99 model were computed and poster presentations of the results were given in several ocean science venues, including the November 2004 GODAY meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

Niiler, Peran P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Jupiter's winds and Arnol'd's second stability theorem: Slowly moving waves and neutral stability

Since the Voyager encounters in 1979, it has been known that Jupiter's cloud-top zonal winds violate the barotropic stability criterion. A vortex-tube stretching analysis of the Voyager wind data indicates that the more general Charney-Stern stability criterion is also violated. On the other hand, the zonal winds determined by tracking cloud features in Hubble Space Telescope images taken in 1991 precisely match the zonal winds determined by tracking cloud features in Voyager images, and it is hard to understand how a complicated zonal wind profile like Jupiter's could be unstable and yet not change at all in 12 years. In fact, there are at least two unknown ways to violate the Charney-Stern stability criterion and still have a stable flow. The better known of these is called Fjortoft's theorem, or Arnol'd's 1st theorem for the case of large-amplitude perturbations. Although the Fjortoft-Arnol'd theorem has been extended from the quasi-geostrophic equations to the primitive equations, the basic requirement that the potential vorticity be an increasing function of streamfunction is opposite to the case found in Jupiter, where the Voyager data indicate that the potential vorticity is a decreasing function of streamfunction. But this second case is precisely that which is covered by Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem. In fact, the Voyager data suggest that Jupiter's zonal winds are neutrally stable with respect to Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem. Here, we analyze the linear stability problem of a one-parameter family of sinusoidal zonal wind profiles that are close to neutral stability with respect to Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem. We find numerically that the most unstable mode is always stationary, which may help to explain the slowly moving mode 10 waves observed on Jupiter. We find that violation of Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem is both necessary and sufficient for instability of sinusoidal profiles. However, there appears to be no simple extension of Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem to the primitive equations. Nevertheless, the primitive growth rates are small, and the primitive system is still governed by the quasi-geostrophic neutral-stability configuration.

Stamp, Andrew P.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Titan's Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

Titan, after Venus, is the second example of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation in the solar system, but a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10degS, indicate that the zonal winds are generally in the sense of the satellites rotation. They become cyclostrophic approx. 35 km above the surface and generally increase with altitude, with the exception of a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from the temperature field retrieved from Cassini measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds at mid northern latitudes of 190 ms-' near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the zonal winds and temperatures are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by approx.4 degrees. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the offset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the solar equator. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures in the north polar region near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggests subsidence there during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50degN. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of winter vortices on Earth-the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in he troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have bee found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent with the Huygens measurements. At low latitudes the zonal winds near the surface appear not to be westward as on Earth, but eastward. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torq exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, this implies westward flow o part of the surface; the question is where. The latitude contrast in tropospheric temperatures, deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes, is small approx.5 K at the tropopause and approx.3 K at the surface.

Flasar, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Tracking error of 100-m antenna due to wind gust

A procedure is shown to derive root-mean-square tracking error for an antenna system in response to wind gust loading. Example calculations are illustrated for the design of a proposed 100 m antenna. The effect of wind gust correlation is also considered.

Massoudi, M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Measurement of a zonal wind profile on Titan by Doppler tracking of the Cassini entry probe

A program, called the Cassini mission, intended to study the Saturn system by utilizing a Saturn orbiter and a probe descending to the surface of Titan, is discussed. Winds are expected to cause perturbations to the probe local horizontal velocity, resulting in an anomalous drift in the probe location and a shift in the frequency of the probe telemetry, due to the Doppler effect. By using an iterative algorithm, in which the time variation of the probe telemetry frequency is monitored throughout the descent, and the probe trajectory is updated to reflect the effect of wind on the probe location, a highly accurate relative wind profile can be recovered. By adding a single wind velocity, measured by independent means, an absolute wind profile can be obtained. However, the accuracy of the zonal winds recovery is limited by errors in trajectory, and frequency.

Atkinson, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Antenna Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) Controllers: Properties, Limits of Performance, and Tuning Procedure

Wind gusts are the main disturbances that depreciate tracking precision of microwave antennas and radiotelescopes. The linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) controllers - as compared with the proportional-and-integral (PI) controllers significantly improve the tracking precision in wind disturbances. However, their properties have not been satisfactorily understood; consequently, their tuning is a trial-and-error process. A control engineer has two tools to tune an LQG controller: the choice of coordinate system of the controller model and the selection of weights of the LQG performance index. This article analyzes properties of an open- and closed-loop antenna. It shows that the proper choice of coordinates of the open-loop model simplifies the shaping of the closed-loop performance. The closed-loop properties are influenced by the LQG weights. The article shows the impact of the weights on the antenna closed-loop bandwidth, disturbance rejection properties, and antenna acceleration. The bandwidth and the disturbance rejection characterize the antenna performance, while the acceleration represents the performance limit set by the antenna hardware (motors). The article presents the controller tuning procedure, based on the coordinate selection and the weight properties. The procedure rationally shapes the closed-loop performance, as an alternative to the trial-and-error approach.

Gawronski, W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Atmospheric Dynamics of Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan

Comparative studies of Jupiter and Saturn often emphasize their similarities, but recent observations have highlighted important differences. The stratospheres of both planets exhibit an equatorial oscillation reminiscent of that in Earth's middle atmosphere. Jupiter's oscillation has a 4-5 year period, not linked to its season, and it has been modeled as an analog to the terrestrial quasi-biennial oscillation, driven by the stresses associated with vertically propagating waves. Saturn's equatorial oscillation is nearly semiannual, but wave activity may still be a driver. Jupiter's internal rotation rate is inferred from its steady modulated radio emission. Saturn's internal rotation is more enigmatic. It has been inferred from the modulation of the body's kilometric radio emission, but this period has varied by 1% over the last 25 years. Saturn's equatorial winds are also puzzling, as those inferred from cloud tracking by Cassini and more recent HST observations are weaker than those from Voyager. Whether this is attributable to a difference in altitudes of the tracked clouds in winds with vertical shear or a real temporal change in the winds is not known. Both winter and summer poles of Saturn exhibit very compact circumpolar vortices with warm cores, indicating subsidence. Titan's middle atmosphere is characterized by global cyclostrophic winds, particularly the strong circumpolar vortex in the winter hemisphere. In many ways, the spatial distribution of temperature, gaseous constituents, and condensates is reminiscent of conditions in terrestrial winter vortices, albeit with different chemistry. The meridional contrast in Titan's tropospheric temperatures is small, only a few kelvins.

Flasar, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Chapter 13. Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

Titan, after Venus, is the second example in the solar system of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation, but in this case a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10 deg S, indicate that the zonal winds are mostly in the sense of the satellite's rotation. They generally increase with altitude and become cyclostrophic near 35 km above the surface. An exception to this is a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from temperatures retrieved from Cassini orbiter measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds of 190 m/s at mid northern latitudes near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the stratospheric zonal winds and temperatures in both hemispheres are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by about 4 deg. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the onset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the seasonally varying subsolar latitude. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggest subsidence in the north polar region during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50 deg N. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of isolating high and low-latitude air masses as do the winter polar vortices on Earth that envelop the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in the troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have been found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent: with the Huygens measurements, Along the descent trajectory, the Huygens measurements indicate eastward zonal winds down to 7 km, where they shift westward, and then eastward again below 1 km dawn to the surface. The low-latitude dune fields seen in Cassini RADAR images have been interpreted as longitudinal dunes occurring in a mean eastward zonal wind. This is not like Earth, where the low-latitude winds are westward above the surface. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torque exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, there must be westward flow over part of the surface; the question is where and when. The meridional contrast in tropospheric temperatures deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes. is small, approximately 5 K at the tropopause and approximately 3 K at the surface. This implies efficient heat transport, probably by axisymmetric meridional circulations. The effect of the methane "hydrological" cycle on the atmospheric circulation is not well constrained by existing measurements, Understanding the mature of the surface-atmosphere coupling will be critical to elucidating the atmospheric transports of momentum, heat, and volatiles.

Flasar, F. M.↗