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At least 91 records · Page 5

Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity

Abstract Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conformational Isomerization of Imide Anions Governs Solvation and Transport in Water-in-Salt Electrolytes

The behavior of highly concentrated electrolytes departs radically from the dilute-solution theory, yet the molecular origin of this transformation remains unresolved. Here, we identify the conformational isomerization of molecular ions as a decisive, previously unrecognized control parameter governing structure and transport in crowded aqueous electrolytes. Across a series of fluorosulfonimide anions, we show that increasing concentration drives a collective shift from extended transoid to compact cisoid conformers, revealed by small-angle X-ray scattering, vibrational spectroscopy, pulsed-field gradient NMR, and molecular dynamics simulations. This conformational transition triggers a collapse of the hydrogen-bonded water network and the emergence of densely packed ionic domains with confined water, producing a qualitative change in Li+ transport from solvent-mediated diffusion to network-confined hopping. Anion size and asymmetry systematically tune the onset of this transition, demonstrating that molecular geometry dictates mesoscale organization and dynamics in the ion-rich regime. Our results establish ion conformation, not merely composition or coordination, as a fundamental thermodynamic variable in concentrated solutions, providing a chemical framework that unifies solvation structure and transport in water-in-salt electrolytes and suggesting new principles for designing dense ionic media.

Nguyen, Huong TD↗

Unified ELM Suppression on KSTAR and DIII-D via Adaptive Feedback Control Strategies

This paper reports on the extension of our amplitude-based resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) edge localized mode (ELM) controller to support phasing control (relative toroidal phases of RMP waveforms between rows of coils), multiple toroidal mode numbers, and new ‘jump’ and ‘probing’ strategies, all deployed on KSTAR and DIII-D. By treating the control algorithm as device-independent and adjusting only the real-time interfaces to sensors and power supplies, we have confirmed that the same finite state machine—based feedback logic can be ported between machines with minor modifications. In experiments using n = 2 RMPs on KSTAR and n = 3 on DIII-D, the controller successfully modulated RMP amplitudes in real time to sustain ELM suppression while minimizing confinement degradation. Phasing control broadened the suppression window, as it permitted the system to avoid locked-mode regions and safely access ELM-free conditions. A rotating RMP phasing scheme, integrated into the same framework, distributes divertor heat loads more uniformly, making it a promising strategy for protecting plasma-facing components during long discharges. New ‘jump’ and ‘probing’ techniques demonstrate the possibility for the controller to preempt imminent ELMs and refine the minimum required RMP amplitude without returning to ELMy conditions. Taken together, these upgrades enable extended ELM-free operation while mitigating confinement degradation, providing a practical framework for real-time ELM control in future high-performance tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Lewis Acid Site Engineering in Chromite Spinels Orchestrated Surface Reconstruction and Surpasses RuO 2 in Oxygen Evolution

Atomic-scale engineering of chromite spinels featuring redox-active tetrahedral A-sites and strong Cr–O covalency offers a promising route to superior platinum-group-metal-free oxygen evolution reaction (OER) catalysts. However, comprehensive studies addressing how cation substitution influences surface chemistry and governs OER activity and durability in chromite spinels remain limited. Here, in this work, a systematic investigation of the multicationic chromite series Ni x Fe y Cr 3−x−y O 4 is presented, identifying composition-dependent Lewis acidity as a descriptor of superior OER performance. It is further demonstrated that tuning surface acidity directly controls dynamic reconstruction processes and lattice-oxygen participation during spinel-based electrocatalysis. Following activation, the optimized Ni 0.8 Fe 0.3 Cr 1.9 O 4 catalyst delivers a current density of 10 mA cm −2 at an overpotential of 235 mV, surpassing RuO 2 , with excellent long-term stability. Integrating microscopic and spectroscopic analysis with operando impedance spectroscopy, it shows that activation generates an oxyhydroxide overlayer and reveals a previously unrecognized link between surface Lewis acidity and the growth kinetics and activity of these shells. Density functional theory calculations indicate that Fe incorporation at octahedral sites raises the O 2p-band center and lowers oxygen-vacancy formation energy, promoting lattice-oxygen activation and triggering reconstruction, yielding enhanced OER. This work integrates cation-driven surface-acidity modulation, acidity-governed reconstruction, and OER activity enhancement into a unified predictive framework for designing earth-abundant spinel-based catalysts.

operando impedance spectroscopy↗

Microstructure prediction for Ti-22Al-25Nb in laser powder bed fusion

This work presents a physics-informed framework for predicting solidification morphology and defect susceptibility in additively manufactured Ti–22Al–25Nb across a broad processing space. The framework integrates solidification microstructure selection (SMS) analysis with a single-track defect-based printability map to establish a unified methodology linking processing parameters to both interfacial morphology and manufacturability. Thermal gradients G and solidification rates R are first computed using the Thermo-Calc Additive Manufacturing (TC-AM) module, a finite-interface-dissipation (FID) phase-field (PF) model coupled with CALPHAD method is then employed to systematically distinguish planar and dendritic regimes as functions of $G$ and $R$. By superimposing the printability map onto the morphology projections, a comprehensive process–structure framework is obtained. Across most processing conditions, the predicted microstructure is predominantly dendritic, while planar growth emerges only under selected laser power $P$ and scan speed $v$ combinations. In addition to morphology classification, the framework quantifies the dendritic area fraction and introduces a width-based morphology descriptor to characterize the spatial extent of planar/dendritic regions within the melt pool. It provides mechanistic insight into the interplay between solidification physics and defect formation, offering practical guidance for parameter selection and microstructural control in Ti–22Al–25Nb additive manufacturing (AM).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗

Optimal binning of correlated measurements

Experimental measurements are commonly represented on a discrete grid, requiring a balance between granularity and statistical noise. Two strategies have traditionally been used to improve such representations: selecting an appropriate bin width to control discretization error and applying kernel-based smoothing to suppress fluctuations. Despite their shared goal, these approaches have largely developed independently, without a unified statistical description of how discretization and correlation jointly determine measurement precision. Here, we extend the discussion of optimal interval averaging to a correlation-aware setting by Gaussian process regression, which explicitly accounts for correlations among neighboring bins. Starting from first principles, we derive the mean-squared error of discretized measurements and obtain closed-form asymptotic expressions for the optimal bin width and correlation length. When recast in reduced variables, the theory reveals distinct universal scaling laws governing the error in the correlation-free and correlation-controlled regimes. Characterized by intrinsically smooth intensity profiles and counting-based statistics, neutron scattering measurements are well suited for demonstrating the enhanced error contraction enabled by inter-bin correlations. We show that such improvement is achievable over the experimentally accessible Q-range and across multiple instruments and material systems. These results show that explicitly accounting for correlations systematically reshapes the limits of precision in discretized, noise-limited measurements. More broadly, the framework provides a transferable statistical foundation for optimizing data representation, inference, and experimental design across the physical and data sciences.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

The superatomic state beyond conventional magic numbers: Ligated metal chalcogenide superatoms

The field of cluster science is drawing increasing attention due to the strong size and composition-dependent properties of clusters and the exciting prospect of clusters serving as the building blocks for materials with tailored properties. However, identifying a unifying central paradigm that provides a framework for classifying and understanding the diverse behaviors is an outstanding challenge. One such central paradigm is the superatom concept that was developed for metallic and ligand-protected metallic clusters. The periodic electronic and geometric closed shells in clusters result in their properties being based on the stability they gain when they achieve closed shells. This stabilization results in the clusters having a well-defined valence allowing them to be classified as superatoms – thus, extending the periodic table to a third dimension. This perspective focuses on extending the superatomic concept to ligated metal-chalcogen clusters that have recently been synthesized in solutions and form assemblies with counterions that have wide-ranging applications. Here we illustrate that the periodic patterns emerge in the electronic structure of ligated metal-chalcogenide clusters. The stabilization gained by the closing of their electronic shells allows for the prediction of their redox properties. Further investigations reveal how the selection of ligands may control the redox properties of the superatoms. These ligated clusters may serve as chemical dopants for two-dimensional semiconductors to control their transport characteristics. Superatomic molecules of multiple metal-chalcogen superatoms allow for the formation of nano pn junctions ideal for directed transport and photon harvesting. As a result, the perspective outlines future developments, including the synthesis of magnetic superatoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Oversizing and Part-Load Problems

Oversizing, the common engineering practice of specifying devices with capacity exceeding the actual load requirement, is a widespread practice across virtually all building technologies end-use categories, including HVAC, electrical systems, lighting, appliances, and plug loads. This practice, driven by factors like design uncertainty, institutional pressures, and risk aversion, results in wasted capital investment, control difficulties, and excessive energy consumption due to inefficient part-load operation. Part-load operation, where devices run below maximum capacity, is the dominant operating mode in most energy systems and presents a complex design challenge. Solutions to match output to load fall into three broad categories: constraining the output, adjusting the device’s internal behavior, and linking output to energy storage or other waste-heat reuse applications. The energy implications of part-load are critical, as efficiency often drops sharply as load decreases across a wide diversity of devices. To quantify the extent of this problem, we derive a dimensionless Part-Load Metric (PLM) based on device efficiency and its frequency distribution of operating hours at various output levels. The PLM quantifies the deviation of a device's actual efficiency from its maximum design efficiency. This metric also serves as a measure of "capital inefficiency," enabling engineers to compare the impact of different part-load solutions and providing a unified framework for evaluating performance across various devices and systems.

Meier, Alan↗

Scaling theory of three-dimensional magnetic reconnection spreading

We develop a first-principles scaling theory of the spreading of three-dimensional (3D) magnetic reconnection of finite extent in the out of plane direction. This theory addresses systems with or without an out of plane (guide) magnetic field, and with or without Hall physics. The theory reproduces known spreading speeds and directions with and without guide fields, unifying previous knowledge in a single theory. New results include: (1) Reconnection spreads in a particular direction if an x-line is induced at the interface between reconnecting and non-reconnecting regions, which is controlled by the out of plane gradient of the electric field in the outflow direction. (2) The spreading mechanism for anti-parallel collisionless reconnection is convection, as is known, but for guide field reconnection it is magnetic field bending. We confirm the theory using 3D two-fluid and resistive-magnetohydrodynamics simulations. (3) The theory explains why anti-parallel reconnection in resistive-magnetohydrodynamics does not spread. (4) The simulation domain aspect ratio, associated with the free magnetic energy, influences whether reconnection spreads or convects with a fixed x-line length. (5) We perform a simulation initiating anti-parallel collisionless reconnection with a pressure pulse instead of a magnetic perturbation, finding spreading is unchanged rather than spreading at the magnetosonic speed as previously suggested. The results provide a theoretical framework for understanding spreading beyond systems studied here, and are important for applications including two-ribbon solar flares and reconnection in Earth’s magnetosphere.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Adaptive simulations enable computational design of electron beam processing of nanomaterials with supersonic micro-jet precursor

Focused Electron Beam Induced Processing (FEBIP) is a powerful tool for the “direct-write” of nanomaterials with the possibility of atomistic control on suspended 2D material substrates. FEBIP capabilities have been significantly expanded by using a localized jet-based delivery of precursors, and especially when a thermally energized supersonic micro-jet enhances the delivery of mass flux along with controlling the far-from-equilibrium thermodynamic state of adsorbed adatoms. The possibilities of growing nanomaterials with “dialed-in” composition with ultra-high growth rates and aspect ratios up to 100:1 have been demonstrated using the supersonic micro-jet-FEBIP. Bringing this scientific discovery to the level of maturity required for practical applications in additive nanomanufacturing requires simulation tools that are capable of capturing the complex flow physics of micro-jet-substrate interactions that bridge a wide range of flow regimes from the high-density gas micro-jet expanding into the vacuum environment of FEBIP. To address this significant computational challenge, a new approach has been developed and described in this work for a multiscale adaptive DSMC (Direct Simulation Monte Carlo) algorithm to predict the micro-jet gas dynamics in an FEBIP environment, spanning the full range of flow regimes from low Knudsen (Kn) number O(0.01) continuum flow to high Kn of O(10) for the molecular flow within a unified computational framework. Here, the fundamental principles of the adaptive DSMC algorithm are described, its viability as a DSMC technique is demonstrated, and computational improvements for the benchmark cases are discussed in the context of advancing 3D nanofabrication with FEBIP. Ultimately, combining the first principle simulations via adaptive DSMC with the complementary experimental data will enable the creation of the powerful CAD tools for in silico design and optimal operation of micro-jet-FEBIP.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Anomalies of global symmetries on the lattice

't Hooft anomalies of global symmetries play a fundamental role in quantum many-body systems and quantum field theory (QFT). In this paper, we make a systematic analysis of lattice anomalies - the analog of 't Hooft anomalies in lattice systems - for which we give a precise definition. Crucially, a lattice anomaly is not a feature of a specific Hamiltonian, but rather is a topological invariant of the symmetry action. The controlled setting of lattice systems allows for a systematic and rigorous treatment of lattice anomalies, shorn of the technical challenges of QFT. We find that lattice anomalies reproduce the expected properties of QFT anomalies in many ways, but also have crucial differences. In particular, lattice anomalies and QFT anomalies are not, contrary to a common expectation, in one-to-one correspondence, and there can be non-trivial anomalies on the lattice that are infrared (IR) trivial: they admit symmetric trivial gapped ground states, and map to trivial QFT anomalies at low energies. Nevertheless, we show that lattice anomalies (including IR-trivial ones) have a number of interesting consequences in their own right, including connections to commuting projector models, phases of many-body localized (MBL) systems, and quantum cellular automata (QCA). We make substantial progress on the classification of lattice anomalies and develop several theoretical tools to characterize their consequences on symmetric Hamiltonians. Our work places symmetries of quantum many-body lattice systems into a unified theoretical framework and may also suggest new perspectives on symmetries in QFT.

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks (cond-mat.d↗

Thermodynamic control on the decomposition of organic matter across different electron acceptors

The increasing availability of high-resolution characterization of natural organic matter (OM) data has shifted the paradigm of lumped descriptions of OM components and potential microbial activities. Our recent development of a substrate-explicit thermodynamic model uniquely enables incorporating complex OM pools to formulate biogeochemical reaction models based on their elemental compositions. While this previous work facilitates prediction of aerobic respiration of complex OM, it is equally imperative to consider the role of non-oxygenic electron acceptors in regulating OM turnover and the fate of carbon. In this study, we significantly expand our previous model by flexibly incorporating both detailed OM chemistry and electron acceptors other than oxygen. Here, our modeling analysis has revealed substantial variations in the energy status of OM molecules across different soils, which drive the co-occurrence of different electron-accepting processes. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model using a consistency check with experimental data. Through systematic evaluation of the impact of diverse chemical inputs (both electron donors and acceptors) on OM decomposition, the new model also revealed how key microbial growth parameters such as carbon use efficiency (CUE) and reaction rates vary across different electron-accepting processes. Our model provides a unified framework integrating thermodynamic and kinetic constraints on microbial metabolic activities. It complements traditional kinetic models, which are often designed solely to capture mass fluxes. We conclude that thermodynamic modeling emerges as a powerful tool for describing the mechanisms underlying the interplay between microbial growth and OM chemistry and cycling across different electron acceptors, enhancing our ability to project complex ecosystem behaviors in dynamic environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stability and Characteristics of Lower-hybrid Drift Waves: Dependence on Electron Beta and Cross-field Relative Drift

Lower-hybrid drift waves (LHDWs) are frequently observed microinstabilities in both space and laboratory plasmas. Despite decades of study, the relationship between electrostatic (ES-LHDW) and electromagnetic (EM-LHDW) variants and the plasma parameters controlling their stability remains unclear. Here, we systematically examine LHDW behavior by solving the local linear dispersion relation over a wide range of plasma and field conditions. Our results demonstrate that ES-LHDWs and EM-LHDWs are not distinct modes but rather two different regimes of the same drift wave whose character evolves smoothly with electron beta (β e ) and the cross-field electron drift velocity relative to ions, normalized to the ion sound speed (u 0x /C s ). The nature of the waves changes from electrostatic to electromagnetic when β e increases. Growth rates increase with u 0x /C s but decrease with β e , while the most unstable wavelength remains nearly universal, with kρ e ∼ 0.8 (k is the magnitude of the wave vector and ρ e is the electron gyroradius). We further present quasi-linear estimates of nonlinear saturation properties, including energy partition among electric fields, magnetic fields, and particle kinetic responses. We show that ES-LHDWs reach higher electric-field saturation amplitudes, whereas EM-LHDWs generate strong magnetic perturbations and parallel electric fields that may enable efficient particle heating. Comparisons with the classical model reveal that retaining electromagnetic effects is essential for accurate predictions of frequency, growth rate, and the propagation angle. These findings provide a unified framework for understanding LHDWs across diverse collisionless plasma environments, including current sheets of magnetic reconnection, shear layers, collisionless shocks, and boundary regions.

Solar coronal waves↗

Strong-Drive Limits in Josephson Circuits: From Chaos to an Unbound-Resonance Threshold

Strong microwave drives enable fast measurement and parametric control in superconducting circuits but can induce transitions out of the intended low-energy manifold. We develop a unified description of strong-drive limits in flux- and charge-driven Josephson circuits across drive frequency and dc flux bias. Using classical phase-space analysis and Floquet--Markov simulations, we identify distinct low- and high-frequency mechanisms. At low frequency, we characterize bound-state resonances and separatrix chaos and find that the flux-drive chaos threshold depends strongly on dc flux bias. At high frequency, these mechanisms are suppressed, and the dissipative steady state transfers from the central bound-state sector to outer resonances formed by above-barrier running trajectories. The resulting unbound-resonance threshold is nearly independent of drive frequency and circuit parameters over the regime studied and is controlled primarily by dc flux bias. Coherent simulations show that parametric operation persists beyond this threshold, but at a reduced rate, setting an effective upper bound on the achievable operation speed. We derive analytical criteria for both thresholds, validate them numerically, and experimentally confirm the predicted dc-bias dependence of the low-frequency threshold in a flux-driven SQUID. We also determine the timescales for transfer into the unbound-resonance regime and relaxation back to the bound-state manifold after the drive is removed. Finally, we relate the stability limits to a complementary picture based on the junction critical current and extend the framework to multitone drives and inductively shunted circuits. Together, these results identify the mechanisms limiting strong driving and suggest routes to extend the stable operating range of Josephson circuits.

You, Xinyuan [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000291789419)↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗