Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “yield forecast”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

A comparison of adiabatic and kinematic vertical motions using mesoscale data

Results are compared from the adiabatic and kinematic methods of determining vertical motion during a period of severe convective storms when special meso alpha-scale rawinsonde data were available. The two procedures were tested using data from the first regional-scale day of AVE-SESAME '79 which coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak of April 10-11, 1979. At 700 mb, each technique showed good agreement with the weather patterns, but the kinematic procedure gave superior results at 500 mb. The overall goodness of the adiabatic method during this particular case was not solely due to the high-resolution SESAME data since synoptic-scale mechanisms played a major role in creating a storm-conducive environment. With the advent of computer aided analysis systems such as AFOS, forecasters will have quicker access to a greater variety of information. Present results suggest that the adiabatic method can yield useful information for severe storm forecasters, especially in the lower troposphere. An interesting follow-on study would use sounding data from geostationary VAS satellites to compute adiabatic vertical motions at finer time and space resolutions than is now possible using RAOB data alone. Geostrophic winds derived from satellite thermal data probably can be used.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

SPECTRASAT: A concept for the collection of global directional wave spectra

The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery from SEASAT revealed a rich tapestry of backscatter patterns from the surface of the ocean. Although still far from being fully understood, these patterns occurred on nearly all spatial scales accessible to the SAR, that is from its spatial resolution of 25 m to its full swath width of 100 km. Futhermore, the backscatter signature appear to reveal a large variety of atmospheric and oceanic processes that occur above, at, and below the ocean surface. Proper interpretation of these signatures of varying scales with respect to their underlying geophysical causes is a major objective of SAR ocean research. Even now, however, it is clear that SAR offers a unique means to monitor wind and waves over global scales. A properly designed, configured, and complimented orbiting SAR system should yield substantial improvements in operational forecasts vital to marine activities. Since wind and wave information is optimally extracted in the spectral domain, the name SPECTRASAT is proposed for this global collection scheme.

Beal, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Diabatic forcing and intialization with assimilation of cloud water and rainwater in a forecast model

In this study, diabatic forcing, and liquid water assimilation techniques are tested in a semi-implicit hydrostatic regional forecast model containing explicit representations of grid-scale cloud water and rainwater. Diabatic forcing, in conjunction with diabatic contributions in the initialization, is found to help the forecast retain the diabatic signal found in the liquid water or heating rate data, consequently reducing the spinup time associated with grid-scale precipitation processes. Both observational Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and model-generated data are used. A physical retrieval method incorporating SSM/I radiance data is utilized to estimate the 3D distribution of precipitating storms. In the retrieval method the relationship between precipitation distributions and upwelling microwave radiances is parameterized, based upon cloud ensemble-radiative model simulations. Regression formulae relating vertically integrated liquid and ice-phase precipitation amounts to latent heating rates are also derived from the cloud ensemble simulations. Thus, retrieved SSM/I precipitation structures can be used in conjunction with the regression-formulas to infer the 3D distribution of latent heating rates. These heating rates are used directly in the forecast model to help initiate Tropical Storm Emily (21 September 1987). The 14-h forecast of Emily's development yields atmospheric precipitation water contents that compare favorably with coincident SSM/I estimates.

Raymond, William H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic assessment of electricity market potential for co-located hydro-floating PV systems

Abstract—Harnessing renewable energy from diverse sources is paramount for sustainable power systems. Recently, co-located floating PV (FPV) systems present an intriguing prospect in this context. These hybrid systems, blending hydro and solar power, may offer a more consistent electricity output and potential economic advantages. Yet, assessing their actual potential requires a comprehensive techno-economic assessment. In addition, probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in electricity market because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. To this end, this paper embarks on a journey to elucidate the electricity market potential of co-located hydro-FPV systems in a probabilistic fashion to investigate the technological merits and economic viability of co-located hydro-FPV under different market structures. Our preliminary findings suggest that LCOE and payback metrics are sensitive not only to different markets but also to different solar incentives. Concurrently, we also observe that the payback period is generally faster with a production tax credit (PTC) than an investment tax credit (ITC). This assessment serves as a cornerstone for understanding the future prospects of co-located hydro-FPV systems in modern electricity markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

Yield Model Development (YMD) implementation plan for fiscal years 1981 and 1982

A plan is described for supporting USDA crop production forecasting and estimation by (1) testing, evaluating, and selecting crop yield models for application testing; (2) identifying areas of feasible research for improvement of models; and (3) conducting research to modify existing models and to develop new crop yield assessment methods. Tasks to be performed for each of these efforts are described as well as for project management and support. The responsibilities of USDA, USDC, USDI, and NASA are delineated as well as problem areas to be addressed.

Ambroziak, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The use of LANDSAT data in a Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment /LACIE/

A Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) has been undertaken jointly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the Department of Commerce and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prove out an economically important application of remote sensing from space. At the outset LACIE will concentrate on wheat grown in the North American area. The experiment will combine crop area measurements obtained from LANDSAT data and meteorological information from NOAA satellites and from ground stations designed to relate weather conditions to yield assessment and ultimately to production forecasts. The Department of Agriculture will study the utilization of the experimentally derived production estimates in its crop reports. These reports are made public as a routine service to the domestic and international agriculture community. If this activity is successful and the results prove useful the application will be extended to other regions and ultimately to other crops.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An evaluation of VAS-derived severe storm parameters

The Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) carried by U.S. meteorological satellites in GEO yield sounding parameters applicable to severe local storm forecasting. Discrepancies between VAS and radiosonde parameters are noted to increase with the number of computational steps required. It is found that VAS-derived parameters incorporating observed surface data yield results superior to those of parameters that do not incorporate them. VAS-derived parameters did not represent consistent improvements over 12-hour limited-area fine-mesh model numerical forecasts.

Olson, Steven R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2002

Better Weather Prediction and Climate Diagnostics Using Rainfall Measurements from Space

Progress in understanding of the role of water in global weather and climate is currently limited by our knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability of primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has recently demonstrated that use of microwave-based rainfall observations from space in data assimilation can provide better climate data sets and improve short-range weather forecasting. At NASA, we have been exploring non-traditional approaches to assimilating TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwavehager (SSM/I) surface rain rate and latent heating profile information in global systems. In this talk we show that assimilating microwave rain rates using a continuous variational assimilation scheme based on moisture tendency corrections improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) reanalyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with these improved analyses also yield better QPE scores and storm track predictions for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd. We present a status report on current efforts to assimilate convective and stratiform latent heating profile information within the general variational framework of model parameter estimation to seek further improvements. Within the next 5 years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007/2008. Based on what has been learned from TRMM, there is a high degree of confidence that these observations can play a'major role in improving weather forecasts and producing better global datasets for understanding the Earth's water and energy cycle. The key to success is to adopt an integrated approach to retrieval, validation, modeling, and data assimilation in a coordinated end-to-end observation-application program.

Hou, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2007

Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Measurements

We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2degx2.5deg. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NO(x) which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NO(y). Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the lightning production of NO(y) will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OM1 instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

Rodriquez, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

LACIE: Wheat yield models for the USSR

A quantitative model determining the relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield in the U.S.S.R. was studied to provide early reliable forecasts on the size of the U.S.S.R. wheat harvest. Separate models are developed for spring wheat and for winter. Differences in yield potential and responses to stress conditions and cultural improvements necessitate models for each class.

Sakamoto, C. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Biomass Productivity by Forecast‐Informed Pond Operations

ABSTRACT Microalgal cultivation for biofuels and proteins holds significant promise but faces challenges in achieving economically viable biomass productivity under variable environmental conditions. This study introduces a forecast‐informed pond operation (FIPO) system that uses numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble forecasts and the biomass assessment tool (BAT) to optimize daily dilution rates for enhanced biomass production. In contrast to the current practice, where fixed dilution rates are based on operator experience, the FIPO system determines the optimal dilution rate based on future weather forecasts and biomass growth conditions. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of FIPO in both short‐ and long‐term growth scenarios. In short‐term experiments, FIPO increased biomass production by 21.3% compared to batch growth and 7.4% over fixed dilution (60% every 3 days) operations. The NWP forecast‐informed operations achieved biomass production nearly identical to that using perfect weather forecasts, highlighting the accuracy of current NWP forecasts for guiding pond operations. In long‐term experiments, FIPO resulted in biomass production increases of 13.3% and 17.8% compared to two fixed dilution rates (60% every 3 days and 20% daily). These findings underscore the viability of using NWP forecasts to optimize microalgal cultivation systems. By adjusting daily dilution rates in response to forecasted weather, operators can achieve higher biomass yields and mitigate risks associated with environmental variability. This study provides a foundation for future research and practical applications in commercial‐scale microalgal production.

Yan, Hongxiang [Energy and Environment Directorate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Accelerated Stress Testing Data for Silicon Photovoltaics Using Tensor Decomposition Methods

The photovoltaic (PV) industry is simultaneously targeting long warranties and new materials/designs for high-energy-yield modules, requiring an advanced methodology to forecast long-term durability of products with un-proven materials combinations. Extended, sequential, and combined stress testing methods are gaining popularity for assessing durability of PV modules/materials beyond the early-stage mortalities. Importantly, multiple degradation mechanisms can proceed simultaneously, and their separate contributions to the overall power loss should ideally be quantified. This work examines the use of data-driven tools towards developing a strategy for faster learning cycles in accelerated stress testing.

accelerated stress testing↗
NASA NTRS1982

Research advances in satellite-aided crop forecasting

The underlying concept of the technology is to estimate crop area and yield for specified regions and to multiply the two to obtain production at the regional level. The treatment here is mainly of area estimation. The approach to non-U.S. crop forecasting does not require ground observations. Among the problems hampering development are the need to estimate crop areas much earlier in the season and the need for information extraction methods that reduce the quantity and quality of the data required.

Erickson, J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Northern Brazil Agriculture: Measuring Soybean Yields in Northern Brazil During El Niño-Southern Oscillation Conditions to Evaluate Trends in Agricultural Production and Support Crop Forecasting, 1984 – 2023

As one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world, Brazil’s crop productivity is highly influential to the world’s food supply. Crop productivity across Brazil is heavily influenced by climatic factors, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives spatially heterogenous effects on growing conditions. To understand the relationship between ENSO conditions and staple crop productivity, the team used 1984 – 2023 climatic data and vegetation indices for four Brazilian states: Bahia, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins. The team focused on soybean growing areas in each state derived from annual land use/land cover classifications. Monthly mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) per state were calculated using multispectral imagery from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imagery (OLI) sensors. In addition, the team used crop production indices, ENSO anomalies, temperature, and precipitation data in this study. The team found that although monthly ENSO anomaly did have a positive relationship between temperature and a slight negative relationship with precipitation, ENSO and monthly soy NDVI were not significantly correlated. Results find no association between ENSO conditions and NDVI in the study area at the state level spatial resolution during the study period. Furthermore, the team found that there was no correlation between cumulative growing season soy NDVI and detrended soy production yield for this study region at the spatial and temporal scale of the analysis. Findings from this project will be used by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service to inform crop productivity forecasting.

remote sensing↗