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NASA NTRS2019

Surface erythemal UV irradiance in the continental United States derived from ground-based and OMI observations: quality assessment, trend analysis and sampling issues

Surface full-sky erythemal dose rate (EDR) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) at both satellite overpass time and local noon time is evaluated against ground measurements at 31 sites from the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) UV-B Monitoring and Research Program (UVMRP) over the period of 2005–2017. We find that both OMI overpass and solar noon time EDR are highly correlated with the measured counterparts (with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively). Although the comparison statistics are improved with a longer time window (0.5–1.0 h) for pairing surface and OMI measurements, both OMI overpass and local noon time EDRs have 7 % overestimation that is larger than 6 % uncertainty in the ground measurements and show different levels of dependence on solar zenith angle (SZA) and to lesser extent on cloud optical depth. The ratio of EDR between local noon and OMI overpass time is often (95 % in frequency) larger than 1 with a mean of 1.18 in the OMI product; in contrast, the same ratio from surface observation is normally distributed with 22 % of the times less than 1 and a mean of 1.38. This contrast in part reflects the deficiency in the OMI surface UV algorithm that assumes constant atmospheric conditions between overpass and noon time. The probability density functions (PDFs) for both OMI and ground measurements of noontime EDR are in statistically significant agreement, showing dual peaks at ∼20 and ∼200 mW/sq. m, respectively; the latter is lower than 220 mW/ sq. m, the value at which the PDF of daily EDR from ground measurements peaks, and this difference indicates that the largest EDR value for a given day may not often occur at local noon. Lastly, statistically significant positive trends of EDR are found in the northeastern US in OMI data, but opposite trends are found within ground-based data (regardless of sampling for either noontime or daily averages). While positive trends are consistently found between OMI and surface data for EDR over the southern Great Plains (Texas and Oklahoma), their values are within the uncertainty of ground measurements. Overall, no scientifically sound trends can be found among OMI data for aerosol total and absorbing optical depth, cloud optical depth and total ozone to explain coherently the surface UV trends revealed either by OMI or ground-based estimates; these data also cannot reconcile trend differences between the two estimates (of EDR from OMI and surface observations). Future geostationary satellites with better spatiotemporal resolution data should help overcome spatiotemporal sampling issues inherent in OMI data products and therefore improve the estimates of surface UV flux and EDR from space.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗
NASA NTRS1999

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS Solar Radiation-Based Calibration and the Transfer-to-Orbit Experiment - Volume 5

The solar radiation-based calibration (SRBC) of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) was performed on 1 November 1993. Measurements were made outdoors in the courtyard of the instrument manufacturer. SeaWiFS viewed the solar irradiance reflected from the sensor's diffuser in the same manner as viewed on orbit. The calibration included measurements using a solar radiometer designed to determine the transmittances of principal atmospheric constituents. The primary uncertainties in the outdoor measurements are the transmission of the atmosphere and the reflectance of the diffuser. Their combined uncertainty is about 5 or 6%. The SRBC also requires knowledge of the extraterrestrial solar spectrum. Four solar models are used. When averaged over the responses of the SeaWiFS bands, the irradiance models agree at the 3.6% level, with the greatest difference for SeaWiFS band 8. The calibration coefficients from the SRBC are lower than those from the laboratory calibration of the instrument in 1997. For a representative solar model, the ratios of the SRBC coefficients to laboratory values average 0.962 with a standard deviation of 0.012. The greatest relative difference is 0.946 for band 8. These values are within the estimated uncertainties of the calibration measurements. For the transfer-to-orbit experiment, the measurements in the manufacturer's courtyard are used to predict the digital counts from the instrument on its first day on orbit (August 1, 1997). This experiment requires an estimate of the relative change in the diffuser response for the period between the launch of the instrument and its first solar measurements on orbit (September 9, 1997). In relative terms, the counts from the instrument on its first day on orbit averaged 1.3% higher than predicted, with a standard deviation of 1.2% and a greatest difference of 2.4% or band 7. The estimated uncertainty for the transfer-to-orbit experiment is about 3 or 4%.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining Spectroscopic and Imaging Galaxy Surveys for Improved Measurements of Large-Scale Structure

Galaxy imaging surveys represent a promising opportunity for testing cosmological models but suffer from significant challenges associated with galaxy redshift uncertainty. I present improved techniques for the use of spectroscopic redshifts for measurements of large-scale structure with galaxy imaging surveys. I additionally present the results of the application of these techniques to data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The results of my work are photometric redshift measurements of the approximately 100 million galaxies comprising the the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Source Galaxy Catalog, constraints on parameters of the Lambda-CDM cosmological model based on the gravitational lensing and clustering of the DES Year 3 source and lens galaxy catalogs, an algorithm for propagating uncertainties measured in simulations to analogous measurements on data, and measurements of the incidence of projection effects in optically detected clusters of galaxies. I argue that continued development of the methods I have worked on is a promising path toward a conclusive test of Lambda-CDM with galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DUNE Near Detector

DUNE is a next-generation experiment aiming to provide precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters. It will detect neutrinos produced in the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility beamline at Fermilab, using a Near Detector situated near the beam target where the neutrinos originate and a Far Detector located 1300 km away in South Dakota. A comparison of the spectra of neutrinos measured at the Far and the Near Detector will allow for the extraction of oscillation probabilities from which the oscillation parameters can be inferred. The specific role of the Near Detector is to serve as the experiment’s control: it will establish the no oscillation null hypothesis, measure and monitor the beam, constrain systematic uncertainties, and provide essential measurements of the neutrino interactions to improve models. The Near Detector complex will include three primary detector components: a liquid argon time projection chamber, a high-pressure gas time projection chamber and an on-axis beam monitor. The three detectors will serve important individual and overlapping functions, with two of them being also able to move transverse to the beam’s axis via the DUNE-PRISM program. The overall mission of the Near Detector, as well as the three sub-detectors’ unique capabilities and physics programs will be discussed in these proceedings.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model-Form Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Modeling with Differential Equations: Application to Epidemiology

Modeling real-world phenomena to any degree of accuracy is a challenge that the scientific research community has navigated since its foundation. Lack of information and limited computational and observational resources necessitate modeling assumptions which, when invalid, lead to model-form error (MFE). The work reported herein explored a novel method to represent model-form uncertainty (MFU) that combines Bayesian statistics with the emerging field of universal differential equations (UDEs). The fundamental principle behind UDEs is simple: use known equational forms that govern a dynamical system when you have them; then incorporate data-driven approaches – in this case neural networks (NNs) – embedded within the governing equations to learn the interacting terms that were underrepresented. Utilizing epidemiology as our motivating exemplar, this report will highlight the challenges of modeling novel infectious diseases while introducing ways to incorporate NN approximations to MFE. Prior to embarking on a Bayesian calibration, we first explored methods to augment the standard (non-Bayesian) UDE training procedure to account for uncertainty and increase robustness of training. In addition, it is often the case that uncertainty in observations is significant; this may be due to randomness or lack of precision in the measurement process. This uncertainty typically manifests as “noisy” observations which deviate from a true underlying signal. To account for such variability, the NN approximation to MFE is endowed with a probabilistic representation and is updated using available observational data in a Bayesian framework. By representing the MFU explicitly and deploying an embedded, data-driven model, this approach enables an agile, expressive, and interpretable method for representing MFU. In this report we will provide evidence that Bayesian UDEs show promise as a novel framework for any science-based, data-driven MFU representation; while emphasizing that significant advances must be made in the calibration of Bayesian NNs to ensure a robust calibration procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office hosted the Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop on Jan. 23–24, 2024, in Washington, D.C. The event brought together representatives from water resource recovery facilities, national laboratories, technology providers, academic researchers, industry consultants, and government agencies, to gather input on the challenges and opportunities in greenhouse gas measurement at water resource recovery facilities and how to effectively leverage future DOE efforts to reduce these uncertainties through potential measurement campaign(s). This report is a summary of the views expressed by individual participants during the workshop; it is not intended to represent DOE’s views or programmatic priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

HEU Metal Delayed Critical Experiments with 10 to 19 Inch Thick Graphite Reflectors

Approximately 100 graphite-reflected highly enriched uranium (HEU, 93.14 wt % 235 U) metal annular and cylindrical critical experiments were performed in the early 1960s at the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF). This report presents details from experiment logbooks, experimental data sheets and the author's memory for 44 HEU metal (93.14 wt % 235 U) critical assemblies with graphite reflectors varying from 10 to 19 in. thick, outside diameters varying from 7 to 15 in., inside diameters varying from 7 to 13 in. and critical HEU metal masses varying from 20.4 to 69.0 kg. The data from the 44 experiments described in this report are acceptable for use as criticality safety benchmark experiments for the International Criticality Safety Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) once the uncertainty analysis on the measured k eff is completed. Based on previous ICSBEP benchmarks with this HEU metal at ORCEF, the uncertainties in the measured k eff are expected to be as low as ±0.0004. Preparation of this report is part of an effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to document more than 15 undocumented series of critical and subcritical experiments enumerated in Critical and Subcritical NEA Benchmark Possibilities for Measurements at ORCEF and Other US DOE Facilities (Mihalzo, ORNL/TM-2019/1188, 2019) and performed by ORNL at ORCEF and other US Department of Energy critical experiments facilities. More than 500 operational days of critical facility time were used, not including setup and dismantlement time. This documentation for a part of one series of graphite reflected highly enriched uranium metal critical experiments, that used 50 operational days of ORCEF time, was performed using funding received from the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy University Programs at the University of Tennessee Nuclear Engineering Department. This documentation was also supported by the Nuclear Criticality, Radiation Transport, and Safety programs at ORNL.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Method for measuring static Young's modulus of tungsten to 1900 K

An instrument system was developed and tested to measure static Young's modulus of elasticity of refractory metals in tension at temperatures to 1900 K. The extensometer uses capacitance displacement sensors for measuring total elongation of a specimen and incorporates a unique high-resolution remote zero-adjusting mechanism. Details of a method for calibrating capacitance displacement sensors at temperatures to 800 K are included. The system was built to adapt to a vacuum furnace on a tensile machine and was tested on unalloyed tungsten rod specimens. The test results show that the system can measure the modulus of tungsten to 1900 K to within a precision of + or - 5 percent. The uncertainty of the measurement is estimated to be of the same order as the precision.

Harrigill, W. T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Unified Picture of Pinatubo Aerosol Global-to Micro-Scale Evolution, From Space, Air, and Ground Measurements

We combine a variety of measurements to develop a composite picture of the post-Pinatubo aerosol and assess the consistency and uncertainties of the measurement and retrieval techniques. Satellite infrared spectroscopy, particle morphology, and evaporation temperature measurements are in accord with theoretical calculations in showing a dominant particle composition of H2SO4-H2O mixture, with H2SO4 weight fraction of 65-80% for most stratospheric temperatures and humidities. Important exceptions are: (1) the presence of volcanic ash at all altitudes initially and in a layer just above the tropopause until at least March 1992, and (2) much smaller H2SO4 weight fractions at the low temperatures attained in high latitude winters and at the tropical tropopause, Laboratory spectroscopy and theoretical calculations yield wavelength- and temperature-dependent refractive indices for the dominant H2SO4-H2O droplets. These in turn permit derivation of particle size spectra from measured optical depth spectra, for comparison to direct measurements by impactors and optical counters. All three techniques paint a generally consistent picture of the evolution of R(sub eff), the effective, or area-weighted, particle radius. In the first month after the eruption, although particle numbers increased by orders of magnitude, R(sub eff) was similar to the preemption value of 0.1 to 0.2 microns, because both small (r less than 0.2 microns) and large (r greater than 0.6 micron particles increased in number. Over the next 3-6 months, R(sub eff) increased to about 0.5 microns reflecting particle growth through condensation and coagulation. In general, R(sub eff) continued to increase for about a year after the eruption. Extinction spectra computed from in situ size distribution measurements are consistent with optical depth measurements, which show spectra with maxima initially at wavelengths of 0.42 microns or less, and thereafter progressively increasing to between 0.78 and 1 micron. Not until 1993 do optical depth spectra begin to show a clear return to the preemption signature of maximizing at the shortest visible wavelengths or in the near UV. This coupled evolution in particle size distribution and optical depth spectra helps explain the relationship between the global maps of 0.5- 1.0- micron optical depth derived from the AVHRR and SAGE satellite measurements.

Russell, Philip B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

On the Directional Dependence and Null Space Freedom in Uncertainty Bound Identification

In previous work, the determination of uncertainty models via minimum norm model validation is based on a single set of input and output measurement data. Since uncertainty bounds at each frequency is directionally dependent for multivariable systems, this will lead to optimistic uncertainty levels. In addition, the design freedom in the uncertainty model has not been utilized to further reduce uncertainty levels. The above issues are addressed by formulating a min- max problem. An analytical solution to the min-max problem is given to within a generalized eigenvalue problem, thus avoiding a direct numerical approach. This result will lead to less conservative and more realistic uncertainty models for use in robust control.

Lim, K. B.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗
NASA NTRS1980

Autonomous navigation accuracy using simulated horizon sensor and sun sensor observations

A relatively simple autonomous system which would use horizon crossing indicators, a sun sensor, a quartz oscillator, and a microprogrammed computer is discussed. The sensor combination is required only to effectively measure the angle between the centers of the Earth and the Sun. Simulations for a particular orbit indicate that 2 km r.m.s. orbit determination uncertainties may be expected from a system with 0.06 deg measurement uncertainty. A key finding is that knowledge of the satellite orbit plane orientation can be maintained to this level because of the annual motion of the Sun and the predictable effects of Earth oblateness. The basic system described can be updated periodically by transits of the Moon through the IR horizon crossing indicator fields of view.

Pease, G. E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurements of B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background from 500 square degrees of SPTpol data

We report a B-mode power spectrum measurement from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization anisotropy observations made using the SPTpol instrument on the South Pole Telescope. This work uses 500 deg 2 of SPTpol data, a five-fold increase over the last SPTpol B-mode release. As a result, the bandpower uncertainties have been reduced by more than a factor of two, and the measurement extends to lower multipoles: 52 < ` < 2301. Data from both 95 and 150 GHz are used, allowing for three cross-spectra: 95 GHz x 95 GHz, 95 GHz x 150 GHz, and 150 GHz x 150 GHz. B-mode power is detected at very high significance; we find P(BB < 0) = 5.8 × 10 -71 , corresponding to a 18.1 σ detection of power. With a prior on the galactic dust from Planck, WMAP and BICEP2/Keck observations, the SPTpol B-mode data can be used to set an upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r < 0.44 at 95% confidence (the expected 1 σ constraint on r given the measurement uncertainties is 0.22). We find the measured B-mode power is consistent with the Planck best-fit ΛCDM model predictions. Scaling the predicted lensing B-mode power in this model by a factor A lens , the data prefer A lens = 1.17 ± 0.13. These data are currently the most precise measurements of B-mode power at ℓ > 320.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

First Measurement of Antideuteron Number Fluctuations at Energies Available at the Large Hadron Collider

The first measurement of event-by-event antideuteron number fluctuations in high energy heavy-ion collisions is presented. The measurements are carried out at midrapidity (|η|<0.8) as a function of collision centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{^sNN}$=5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector. A significant negative correlation between the produced antiprotons and antideuterons is observed in all collision centralities. The results are compared with a state-of-the-art coalescence calculation. While it describes the ratio of higher order cumulants of the antideuteron multiplicity distribution, it fails to describe quantitatively the magnitude of the correlation between antiproton and antideuteron production. On the other hand, thermal-statistical model calculations describe all the measured observables within uncertainties only for correlation volumes that are different with respect to those describing proton yields and a similar measurement of net-proton number fluctuations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of secondary electron yield uncertainty on the single-sided multipacting in dielectrics

Multipacting is an electrical discharge caused by the emission of secondary electrons which can occur in vacuum radio frequency systems. Generally multipacting is highly undesirable obstacle, which increases the noise level as well as the return loss of radio frequency systems. Therefore, a prediction of multipacting is necessary to avoid it during radio frequency system design. In this regard, the accurate evaluation of the factors that affect multipacting is required. One of the critical factors determining the multipacting development is the secondary electron yield of the material. In practice the emission properties of materials are not known very accurately. There are uncertainties in the measured values of this yield. In this paper, the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method is used to quantify uncertainty of the secondary electron yield. This method is verified by Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of uncertainty for two secondary electron yield parameters is then investigated on the multipacting using gPC method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Development of a high temperature capacitive pressure transducer

High temperature pressure transducers capable of continuous operation while exposed to 650 C were developed and evaluated over a full-scale differential pressure range of + or - 69 kPa. The design of the pressure transducers was based on the use of a diaphragm to respond to pressure, variable capacitive elements arranged to operate as a differential capacitor to measure diaphragm response and on the use of fused silica for the diaphragm and its supporting assembly. The uncertainty associated with measuring + or - 69 kPa pressures between 20C and 650C was less than + or - 6%.

Egger, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fundamental aspects of pulse phase-locked loop technology-based methods for measurement of ultrasonic velocity

A new instrument based on a constant frequency pulse phase-locked loop concept has been developed to accurately measure the ultrasonic phase velocity in condensed matter. Measurements of the sound velocity in ultrapure water are reported in which both damped and undamped transducers are used with the instrument together with reflectors of various thicknesses placed in the sound propagation path. An analysis of measurements made with the new instrument and similar measurements, taken under identical experimental conditions, using a popular variable frequency pulsed-phase-locked loop instrument is reported. Uncertainties in both measurement systems are analyzed and discussed. A method for measuring inherent phase shifts, not addressed by previous investigations, within the variable frequency pulsed phase-locked loop system and a derivation of the equations that govern the overall use of variable frequency systems using phase-sensitive comparisons are presented. The effects of a finite pulse length on the measurements of phase velocity in dispersive media are addressed in detail.

Yost, William T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global and Regional Trends of Aerosol Optical Depth over Land and Ocean Using SeaWiFS Measurements from 1997 to 2010

Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, the SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-year mission. Our results indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On a smaller scale, different trends are found for different regions. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

Hsu, N. C.↗