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DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Jumpstart Opportunities to Unleash Leadership in Energy Storage (JOULES)

Current-generation Li-ion batteries with cobalt- and nickel-containing cathodes and graphite anodes are approaching performance and cost limits. In this program, 24M Technologies, Inc. (24M) is teaming with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and University of Michigan (UM) to develop low cost and fast charging sodium metal batteries with good low-temperature performance and high energy density, building upon previous work performed under ARPA-E programs. Key achievements include optimization of solid electrolyte and anode current collector, optimized cathode active materials, development of high-performance electrolyte formulations, and integration of these components into full cells. The cell design incorporates (1) an ultra-thick cathode (>9 mAh/cm 2 ) comprising advanced cobalt-free, sodium cathode active material, (2) advanced fast-charging electrolyte (up to 12 mS/cm) developed using machine learning and automated high-throughput screening technology by UM, and (3) ceramic modified separator that enable smooth Na transport and deposition, developed at MIT, enabling a high-energy density anode-free configuration and maximizing the energy density of sodium batteries. The team has successfully combined these approaches to sodium chemistry and paved the way to meeting the fast-charging, high-energy density, and low-cost requirements of next-generation drone, electric vertical take-off and -landing, and electric vehicle batteries. Performance for anode-free sodium cells developed under this program is more powerful than the commercial Li-ion batteries. The final deliverable cell design has achieved over 300 Wh/kg and volumetric energy density above 800 Wh/L (Table 1). Additionally, the team has achieved over (1) a lifetime of 340 cycles, (2) 80% capacity retention at -20 °C (compared 25 °C), and (3) the ability to fast charge to 80% SOC in 20 minutes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nitrene generation and transfer for unnatural biosynthesis in living cells

Abstract Synthetic biology has enabled the production of natural and unnatural products from inexpensive sustainable feedstocks. Yet, the scope of available products has been limited largely to compounds accessible from nature’s chemical reactions. Evolved enzymes can catalyse reactions of unnatural substrates or reactions not found in nature but often require the addition of synthetic reagents to purified enzymes or to resting cells containing those enzymes. Here we show that chemical reactions of metabolic intermediates produced intracellularly in living cells can include intermolecular nitrene transfers. The biosynthesis of N -acetoxyanilines, in combination with the generation and transfer of N -aryl nitrene intermediates from them catalysed by a cytochrome P450, generates amino alcohols, diamines, diarylamines and aminoalkyl arenes from simple carbon feedstocks. These products—common substructures of pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals—are challenging to synthesize by standard organic chemistry and were produced from inexpensive, renewable feedstocks. Evolution of the enzymes in this pathway showed that titres can be increased by engineering and that the products can be synthesized with high enantioselectivity.

Donnell, Isaac↗

DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of Composition and Oxidation States on the Structures of Chromium-Containing Sodium Silicate Glasses: Molecular Dynamics Simulations using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Chromium represents a significant challenge for the vitrification of high-level nuclear waste into silicate and borosilicate glasses due to its low solubility and variable oxidation states, which can limit the waste loading due to promotion of crystallization or phase separation during processing. In this study, we modeled chromium containing silicate glasses using molecular dynamics simulations with three machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), MACE, CHGNet, and PFP were employed, to gain insights on glass composition and oxidation states on the structures of these glasses. One of the goals is to evaluate their ability of these MLIPs to accurately represent the general structure of silicate glasses and chromium local environments as a function of chromium oxidation states. Density Functional Theory (DFT) based calculations and experimental data such as neutron structure factors were used to validate the structural models. It was found that the foundation models of all three MLIPs are able to reproduce general structural features of the sodium silicate glass structure consistent with experimental and DFT data, but only CHGNet and PFP can accurately capture the oxidation states and local environment of chromium: tetrahedral for Cr6+ and octahedral for Cr3+. Furthermore, we studied the effect of varying Cr3+/ Cr6+ (Cr3+/Crtotal) ratio and total chromium content using PFP. Our results show that Cr6+ enhances network polymerization by reducing non-bridging oxygens through Na? charge compensation required due to the formation of chromate (CrO42-) species, while Cr³? acts as a network modifier that disrupts connectivity. System size effects on the structural characteristics and chromium environments were also tested using the PFP potential. This work highlights the importance of careful validation on the precision, transferability, and potential of MLIPs for modeling glasses containing transition metal elements that can exist in multiple oxidation states. It is also encouraging to see the foundational models are all three MLFFs are able to reproduce the basic sodium silicate glass structures, while suggesting additional training or refining is needed to improve the description of more complex systems containing transition metals.

Puga, Christina L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoupling thermal and irradiation effects on grain boundary segregation

Radiation-induced segregation (RIS) is most often measured by peak solute concentration at a boundary. However, this may give an incomplete picture of segregation quantity and phenomena. Radiation-induced and thermal segregation at grain boundaries was investigated in Fe-9.6 at.% Cr after 9 MeV Fe 3+ ion irradiation at 400 °C. The experimental results were compared to kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The study revealed that Cr enrichment (peak segregation) at the grain boundaries was comparable in both the irradiated and non-irradiated conditions, although irradiation resulted in broader segregation profiles in both experiments and simulations, indicating an overall increase in grain boundary segregation due to irradiation. This broadening is attributed to back diffusion into the grain interior. While it is an established phenomenon, this study offers a quantitative evaluation using experimental data and KMC modeling. Further, these results emphasize the importance of analyzing the entire segregation profile and decoupling the thermal and irradiation contributions to solute segregation.

Grain boundary segregation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improvements in the utilization of calcium carbonate in promoting sustainability and environmental health

Calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) is an incredibly abundant mineral on Earth, with over 90% of it being found in the lithosphere. To address the CO 2 crisis and combat ocean acidification, it is essential to produce more CaCO 3 using various synthetic methods. Additionally, this approach can serve as a substitute for energy-intensive processes like cement production. By doing so, we have the potential to not only reverse the damage caused by climate change but also protect biological ecosystems and the overall environment. The key lies in maximizing the utilization of CaCO 3 in various human activities, paving the way for a more sustainable future for our planet.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated optical frequency division for microwave and mmWave generation

Abstract The generation of ultra-low-noise microwave and mmWave in miniaturized, chip-based platforms can transform communication, radar and sensing systems 1–3 . Optical frequency division that leverages optical references and optical frequency combs has emerged as a powerful technique to generate microwaves with superior spectral purity than any other approaches 4–7 . Here we demonstrate a miniaturized optical frequency division system that can potentially transfer the approach to a complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor-compatible integrated photonic platform. Phase stability is provided by a large mode volume, planar-waveguide-based optical reference coil cavity 8,9 and is divided down from optical to mmWave frequency by using soliton microcombs generated in a waveguide-coupled microresonator 10–12 . Besides achieving record-low phase noise for integrated photonic mmWave oscillators, these devices can be heterogeneously integrated with semiconductor lasers, amplifiers and photodiodes, holding the potential of large-volume, low-cost manufacturing for fundamental and mass-market applications 13 .

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecules to Masterpieces: Bridging Materials Science and the Arts

Art and materials innovation have always been intertwined, dating back to the earliest human creations. In modern times, however, the increasing specialization of materials science often restricts artists' access to cutting-edge materials. Here, the materials science aspects of an art-science collaboration between artist Kimsooja and the Wiesner Lab at Cornell University, are detailed. The project involves the development of a custom-made iridescent block copolymer coating by means of self-assembly, originally applied to transparent window panels of a façade for the ≈14 m tall art installation: A Needle Woman: Galaxy Is a Memory, Earth is a Souvenir by artist Kimsooja. After several exhibitions in the US and Europe, the installation is now part of the permanent museum collection at Yorkshire Sculpture Park in Wakefield, UK. Full characterization of the solution blade-cast coatings show shear aligned, standing up lamellar morphologies that behave as volume-phase gratings with periodicities between 300 and 400 nm. Coatings are also applied to foldable (origami) paper and converted into iridescent porous ceramic materials. Furthermore, it is hoped this work inspires and informs communities across materials science, the arts, and architecture.

Architectural nanomaterials↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling Real Estate Development Innovation With Emerging Local Area Developers

These case studies provide tangible examples within the development field that show how true innovation in real estate and property development hinges on shaping and optimizing diverse connections and relationships to create widely available, market-viable, and high-performance buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling Demand Flexibility: Building on 30 Years of Energy Efficiency Success

With electricity consumption across the United States (US) and Canada anticipated to grow, energy efficiency program administrators have a key role to play in helping to ensure energy affordability and reliability in support of the broader economic systems utilities and grid support. Connected, demand side load balancing solutions, such as load shifting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and managed charging for electric vehicles (EVs), can dynamically manage energy, allowing for more volumetric electricity consumption without incurring the expense of upgraded transmission and distribution capabilities. When combined, or aggregated, many small loads can be managed to have meaningful impact on energy demand on the grid. Utilities and their partners have an opportunity to leverage decades of experience and the infrastructure needed to assess, design, implement, and measure programs to scale up the adoption of equipment with built-in load flexibility capabilities. Current efforts among a wide variety of electricity system service providers, utilities, standards agencies, regulators, national labs and private industry stakeholders aim to identify common standards, metrics, and methodologies for valuing grid services offered by demand side equipment. By combining those efforts with decades of proven energy efficiency resources, utilities are poised to effectuate a scaling up of equipment with energy management capabilities installed in homes and businesses across the US and Canada. This paper will provide an overview of how utilities are approaching this era of load growth and new peak demands across the United States and Canada. It will highlight the specific strategies that program administrators are employing to advance market transformation for grid-enabled products and devices that have the greatest potential to reduce energy use and increase load flexibility.

Grant, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2026

Manipulation of Localized Excitons in CrPS4 by Temperature and Magnetic Field

Layered van der Waals magnetic semiconductors provide a versatile platform for exploring excitonic phenomena intertwined with spin and lattice degrees of freedom, enabling excitons to act as sensitive probes of magnetic order. CrPS4 is a layered antiferromagnetic semiconductor that hosts rich excitonic features whose microscopic origin and connection to magnetic ordering remain incompletely understood. Here, we investigate the electronic and excitonic properties of bulk CrPS4 using a combination of many-body perturbation theory, dynamical mean-field theory, and photoluminescence-based experiments. Our calculations establish CrPS4 as a direct-gap semiconductor with a bandgap of 2.48 eV in the antiferromagnetic phase. Several subbandgap excitonic transitions are predicted by theory, comprising multiple spin-allowed excitons and an additional spin-flip excitation, predominantly localized on the Cr3+ ions. Temperature- and magnetic-field-dependent optical measurements reveal thermally driven exciton redistribution among localized states and identify characteristic energy shifts that provide clear optical signatures of magnetic phase transitions in CrPS4. These results provide insights into the excitonic transitions of antiferromagnets and suggest potential routes for all-optical sensing and light-driven control of their magnetic order.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2026

Are CO2 batteries ready for the grid? A cross-cutting deployment checklist

Metal-CO2 batteries have attracted considerable research interest in the past decade due to the utilization of the greenhouse CO2 gas. The low cost and abundance of CO2 feedstocks, together with high specific capacity metal anodes, make this technology a promising candidate for electricity-demanding data centers and grids. However, nonstandard data reporting, ambiguous hardware designs, and questionable cycling parameters have emerged as the field has grown. A clear checklist and standardized reporting format for research and development are urgently needed. Here, after carefully re-analyzing 15 Na-CO2 and 9 Li-CO2 studies, we propose a general checklist and a flowchart for CO2 batteries and related gas conversion systems. Specific performance values from a deployment-oriented perspective, based on commercial lithium iron phosphate batteries, are integrated into the list. We frame research and development efforts around grid-relevant outputs, including areal rate and capacity, cyclability, gas utilization, and safety. While illustrated for Na- and Li-CO2 cells, this framework is directly transferable to other CO2 batteries and air/oxygen batteries, helping align benchtop demonstrations with systematic metrics that ultimately govern future deployment.

Wu, Wenda [ORNL] (ORCID:000900033307687X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ionic Interdiffusion at Cathode|Solid-Electrolyte Interface: A Machine Learning–Assisted Multiscale Investigation and Mitigation Strategies

Future lithium batteries are expected to use solid electrolytes to achieve higher energy density and fast charge capabilities. However, most solid electrolytes are thermodynamically unstable against layered oxide cathodes. In this study, the stability of LiCoO2 (LCO) cathode with Li10GeP2S12 (LGPS) solid electrolyte is investigated using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and machine learning molecular dynamics (MLMD). The propensity of ionic interdiffusion, formation of a passivating interphase layer, and corresponding decay in cell performance is addressed using a continuum model. Large-scale MLMD simulations confirm that the LCO|LGPS interface permits interdiffusion of cobalt (Co) and other ionic species, leading to the formation and growth of a resistive interphase and to dramatic capacity fade even in the first cycle. We examine the literature evidence that incorporating a thin layer of LiNb0.5Ta0.5O3 (LNTO) between LCO and LGPS prevents the interdiffusion of ions. Atomistic simulations suggest that substituting lithium (Li) in LNTO with Co is thermodynamically unfavorable, thereby inhibiting ionic interdiffusion. The stable Nb5+/Ta5+ states form a rigid metal-oxide framework, which consequently also prevents the substitution of niobium (Nb) or tantalum (Ta). However, continuum-level analysis suggests that the higher mechanical stiffness of LNTO can lead to interfacial delamination between the LCO and LNTO. This phenomenon reduces the effectiveness of the protective layer. This paper, therefore, highlights the need to develop novel interlayers that balance low ionic interdiffusion with low mechanical stiffness.

Ncube, Musawenkosi K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2026

MRV Challenge 3: velocity and passive scalar comparison in a 3D turbulent flow

The third iteration of a magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) challenge comparison activity consisting of 3D flow measurements for a turbulent flow in a water channel moving past centrally positioned cubic obstacles is reported. In this challenge iteration, MRV measurements are coupled with either temperature or concentration measurements to extend the diagnostic utility. Five research teams from around the world conducted the measurements on a single shared apparatus. The water channel included partial elements along the channel sidewalls that varied in height and precluded easy optical accessibility. In addition to a turbulent mainstream flow, a secondary flow entered the channel between the second and third cubic elements from a square injector hole at the channel bottom wall. The injector jet interacts with the mainstream flow and mixes turbulently as it advects downstream. For the selected flow regime and water solutions used as working fluids, the mixing of the higher temperature or concentration through the secondary flow with the mainstream flow satisfies the same dynamics so that both temperature and concentration fields behave as passive scalars and can be directly compared. The measurements are explained in detail by each participating team, and the results are interpolated onto a common grid and compared using line profiles, contour plots, and isosurfaces.

Benson, Mike [ORNL] (ORCID:000000023210116X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanical and durability properties of ultra-high-performance concrete of spent nuclear fuel dry storage systems: a review

Dry storage systems are used for interim storage of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). However, with the growing need to extend the operational periods of these systems, there are concerns about the degradation of their concrete overpacks, which could compromise the system's structural integrity and safety during hazardous events. Traditional concrete mixtures used in SNF dry storage systems have remained largely unchanged since their inception and often use conventional ingredients. These materials are susceptible to degradation mechanisms such as chemical attacks, alkali-silica reactions (ASR), and freeze–thaw cycles, which can lead to a loss of strength and durability over time. To address these challenges, this paper reviews the application of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) as a promising alternative for spent nuclear fuel dry storage system overpacks. UHPC offers superior mechanical properties, exceptional durability, and reduced susceptibility to degradation mechanisms compared to conventional concrete. This paper focuses on the role of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) such as silica fume, fly ash, and metakaolin in enhancing UHPC performance for SNF storage applications. These SCMs have been shown to significantly improve the material’s microstructure, strength, and resistance to environmental stressors typically encountered in SNF storage environments. Moreover, incorporating SCMs supports sustainable construction by reducing cement consumption and associated carbon emissions. The review brings together existing research and experimental data, providing insights for engineers and researchers on developing UHPC mixtures that meet the rigorous demands of spent nuclear fuel dry storage systems, extending their service life and minimizing inspection intervals.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗