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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Use and Assessment of BISON within VERA-CS in Support of PCI Challenge Problem

Successfully addressing the PCI Challenge Problem in CASL could provide significant economic benefit to industry by allowing them to gain better insight into their systems and avoiding economic penalties incurred by possible fuel failures or risk mitigation strategies such as slow power ramp rates during transients. This effort requires integrating BISON into VERA-CS effectively and efficiently, demonstrating its use and continuing to further develop the capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Fundamental Understanding of Aluminum Chemistry and Interactions of Aluminate Anion with Co-Anions: ORNL Project Progress Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Hanford Site in Washington State houses 177 underground storage tanks containing millions of gallons of nuclear and chemical waste with high aluminum content. Aluminum (Al) salt reactions with strong bases produce aluminum hydroxides, like boehmite (γ-AlOOH), which are main components of insoluble nuclear waste sludge. Understanding the morphology, crystallinity, and dissolution behavior of boehmite under waste tank conditions is necessary for improving waste management and mitigation strategies. The ORNL team uses in situ multimodal analysis strategy to study Al chemistry of simulated tank waste using microfluidic reactors and advanced chemical imaging and mass spectrometry (MS) techniques. Because the SALVI device is vacuum compatible and transferrable among different platforms, we can use it in scanning electron microscopy (SEM), vacuum ultraviolet single photon mass spectrometry (VUV SPI-MS), and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to study the chemical speciation and colloid stability in liquids in this project. Additionally, ex situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and x-ray diffraction (XRD) spectroscopy can be used to verify particle phase to further the understanding of the Al-bearing phases. This report gives a summary of the technical progress of the ORNL tasks. A plan for year 2 performance is recommended in the summary.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

TCCSP Task 6 Risk Assessment Report

For this Risk Assessment Plan, TCCSP has conducted a site-based risk assessment that quantifies the risk of CO 2 and/or brine leakage as a result of CO 2 injection at TCCSP. The risk assessment covers project planning, construction, injection, post-injection periods and closure of TCCSP. Key technical and non-technical Project risks are identified as part of the Risk Workshop and include a thorough evaluation of related scenarios. Mitigation strategies for the identified risk scenarios are defined to develop a scientifically sound, and community acceptable CO 2 storage Project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pushing the Boundaries of Coherence in Superconducting Quantum Systems at the SQMS Center for Computing, Sensing, and Metrology

This talk will highlight recent advances at the SQMS Center in understanding and mitigating decoherence in superconducting quantum systems, focusing on both transmon qubits and 3D superconducting cavities. I will present results from systematic studies of materials and devices, aimed at identifying key sources of loss: including two-level systems (TLS), quasiparticles, and other noise mechanisms. These studies span microwave loss characterization in materials such as niobium, tantalum, aluminum, and their native oxides, as well as substrate losses in silicon and sapphire. Using both qubits and cavities, we disentangle subsystem contributions to loss and develop a hierarchy of mitigation strategies. Through these efforts, we have achieved transmon coherence times exceeding one millisecond. I will also present investigations into quasiparticle dynamics, including bursts observed in qubits located above ground and in the Gran Sasso underground laboratory. Additional studies explore temperature dependence to distinguish between TLS and quasiparticle losses, and reveal that applying a magnetic field can reduce temporal T1 fluctuations in transmons. Building on these results, we demonstrate a record-coherence two-cell cavity-qudit system with coherence times exceeding 20 milliseconds. By leveraging sideband interactions and error-resilient protocols including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity quantum state control. This includes preparation of Fock states up to N = 20 with fidelities over 95%, and two-mode entanglement with coherence-limited fidelities reaching 99.9% after post-selection. These achievements position the SQMS platform as a powerful foundation for scalable quantum information processing and high-dimensional qudit encodings. Finally, I will discuss how these ultra-coherent systems are being deployed in emerging quantum sensing applications, including dark matter searches and gravitational wave detection.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Aperture Studies at the Fermilab Recycler Ring

As part of the Proton Improvement Plan II (PIP-II), Fermilab aims to increase beam intensity delivered to neutrino experiments. In this context, higher intensity injection into the Recycler Ring enhances space charge effects, pushing operations closer to third-order resonances. These resonances reduce the Dynamic Aperture (DA), leading to increased beam loss. This study presents simulations of DA as a function of tune in the Recycler Ring, incorporating chaos indicators such as the Reversibility Error Method (REM). The effectiveness of existing resonance mitigation strategies is evaluated by quantifying their ability to delay DA degradation. Additionally, the study examines how space charge detuning and DA limitations dictate viable operational tune points for the Recycler Ring.

Gonzalez-Ortiz, Cristhian Eduardo [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible by-Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors

Next-generation advanced reactors (ARs) incorporate enhanced safety systems, have smaller source terms, and feature compact modular designs, which should lessen their collective risk profiles. However, to fully evaluate risk, security needs to be a part of the equation. Without taking security into consideration, safety systems and components in the new ARs may be vulnerable to sabotage. These base attributes, coupled with enhanced security features specific to AR design through sound engineering and security-by-design (SeBD), should provide developers and operators with lower inherent security risk profiles. Building security early into the AR design may remove or passively secure potential critical targets from an adversary’s reach , thereby increasing overall safety and security. An integrated approach and diverse design team that includes engineering, operations, and security experts are fundamental to building security into the design without sacrificing fundamental operational efficiencies and principles. The objective of this project was to evaluate the security and safety interfaces for five classes of reactors, identify potential security vulnerabilities of structures, systems, and components (SSC), and underscore the need to consider security alongside safety in the design o f these concepts. The five reactor classes evaluated in this project and presented in this report are molten-salt reactors (MSR), high temperature gas reactors (HTGR), sodium-fast reactors (SFR), advanced light-water reactors (ALWR), and microreactors. These designs were selected because they reflect the concepts that are closest to market deployment and have received significant resource investments from the public and private sector. This project assesses the inherent security risks posed by common classes of ARs, provides a methodology and framework to assess security along with safety, and offers an analysis of potential mitigation strategies that could be incorporated. For each AR technology, the SSCs that relate to radionuclide source safety functions are discussed to understand the SSC contribution to safety and relative importance in the protective strategy for the design. The assumptions that went into evaluating each reactor concept originated from generic publicly available nonproprietary information and should not directly be used to qualify an absolute risk profile nor to rank specific AR designs. Instead, the purpose of the analysis is to understand and compare the generic inherent security risks of different AR technologies.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher Efficiency, Demand Flexible Refrigerator with On-Demand Micro-Vibrational De-icing Technology

Refrigerator technology has advanced significantly over the last couple of decades. Today’s refrigerators use only about 25% of the energy that was required to power models built in 1975. Even as they continually improve efficiency to meet standards, refrigerators have increased in size by almost 20%, added energy-consuming features such as through-the-door ice, and provide more benefits than ever before. However, a few challenges and technology gaps are preventing further improvement of the demand responsiveness and efficiency of the refrigerators. One of the major technology gaps in existing refrigerators is their outdated de-icing process. When the evaporator generates frost, an old-fashioned resistive heating element melts the ice. Most refrigerators have a timed defrost cycle, rather than an active system that could monitor the state of the frost. In these systems, not only is the precious electricity used at its least efficient form of conversion (direct conversion of electricity to heat), but also all the latent heat associated with the ice is wasted during the melting process. On top of that, the refrigerator needs to work harder to pull the temperature down after defrosting, and, last but not least, the food quality is severely impacted by the temperature swings during the defrost cycle. According to a study, the EU alone wastes 89 million tons of food in the supply chain every year. Any temperature swing during defrosting (about 6F according to Emerson for low-temperature cases) can negatively impact the shelf life of meat and other products for multiple days. All these issues can happen during the peak demand time of the electric grid. Unlike the conventional systems, the proposed novel advanced micro-vibrational deicing process uses no heat for defrosting. Instead, it uses the micro vibrations generated by a piezoelectric or vibration-generating module to mechanically break ice from the heat exchanger almost instantaneously. The project titled “Higher Efficiency, Demand Flexible Refrigerator with On-Demand Micro-Vibrational De-icing Technology, performed by Ultrasonic Technology Solutions, LLC (UTS) of Knoxville, TN, in collaboration with Emerson (now Copeland), represents the final phase of a multi-year effort funded under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) BENEFIT FOA 2020. Initiated on October 1, 2021, and completed after a nine-month no-cost extension ending September 30, 2025, this project aimed to develop and validate a novel micro-vibrational mechanical defrosting system, achieving more than 25% improvement in defrosting energy efficiency over conventional baseline defrosting technologies. Over sixteen quarters, the project advanced from fundamental ice-mechanical characterization and prototype development to full-scale system integration and validation. Initial efforts established project management infrastructure and characterized ice adhesion properties, followed by the design and fabrication of early aluminum-based prototypes for resonance frequency testing. Subsequent quarters saw rapid technical progression, including the identification of optimal piezoelectric and motor-based vibration mechanisms, the demonstration of effective de-icing over 6x6-inch aluminum surfaces. The team achieved its Go/No-Go milestone by exceeding the 25% energy-efficiency improvement target—reaching up to 3,340% under optimized conditions—and later confirmed that motor-driven systems offered superior performance and energy efficiency compared to piezoelectric alternatives. Continued refinement led to the development of amplifier systems on printed circuit boards, improved control and instrumentation hardware, and integration into full-scale heat exchanger (HX) prototypes at both UTS and Copeland facilities. Multiple vibration-mounting studies and frost-growth experiments guided mechanical optimization and noise-mitigation strategies, achieving a 17.5 dB reduction in sound pressure level and verifying robust mechanical performance. Advanced analyses, including modal and harmonic simulations, established a quantitative understanding of vibrational behavior and de-icing efficiency across >1000 cm² systems. The final project phase successfully demonstrated scalable integration within reach-in and chest freezer prototypes, confirmed >25% efficiency improvements in large-area systems, and completed a comprehensive business model and scale-up strategy identifying electric defrost systems as the primary beachhead market. The culmination of this DOE-supported effort establishes micro-vibrational defrosting as a viable, high-efficiency, low-noise, and demand-flexible de-icing technology, paving the way for commercial deployment and broader application in next-generation refrigeration systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Literature Review of Selected Publications Relevant to Carbon Dioxide Pipeline and Storage Systems

The annotated bibliographies provided in this document focus on identifying and reviewing environmental impact statements (EIS), environmental assessments (EA), and scientific literature relevant to aspects of CO 2 pipeline and storage construction and operation. The purpose of these summaries is to aid stakeholders responsible for the preparation of documents compliant with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements to have access to a quick and comprehensive guide of the literature that can inform their activities. They aim to inform the development of EISs and EAs by identifying potential environmental concerns and mitigation strategies. The annotated bibliographies captured in this document cover the general environmental assessment and impact topics relevant to CO 2 pipeline and storage construction and operation activities, with the subject of waste creation and handling being specifically pulled out into its own section. The reasoning behind a dedicated section for waste is that many EAs and EISs focus on the description of waste and its impacts, be it caused in routine operation or as a result of an accident.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identifying Decoherence Mechanisms in Superconducting Qubits through Advanced Materials Characterization

Although superconducting qubits have emerged as a leading technology platform for quantum computing through large improvements in device coherence times and gate fidelity in recent years, the presence of defects and impurities at the interfaces and surfaces in the constituent materials continue to limit performance and serve as a critical barrier in achieving scalable quantum systems. Understanding and eliminating these sources of quantum decoherence in superconducting qubit devices requires dedicated studies aimed at establishing robust structure-property relationships that will enable researchers to target and eliminate defects strategically. As part of the Superconducting Materials and Systems (SQMS) center, we have extensively employed state-of-the-art materials characterization techniques, including scanning/transmission electron microscopy, secondary ion mass spectrometry, atom probe tomography, x-ray diffraction, and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy in conjunction with device measurements to elucidate such relationships. In this talk, I will discuss some of our recent findings, including linking atomic defects to microwave loss in surface oxides, linking impurities in the Josephson Junction to qubit parameters, and linking low temperature precipitates to device performance. By applying these insights, we have been able to strategically develop and implement mitigation strategies for reliable fabrication of high coherence superconducting qubits.

Murthy, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000176776866)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identifying Decoherence Mechanisms in Superconducting Qubits through Advanced Materials Characterization

Although superconducting qubits have emerged as a leading technology platform for quantum computing through large improvements in device coherence times and gate fidelity in recent years, the presence of defects and impurities at the interfaces and surfaces in the constituent materials continue to limit performance and serve as a critical barrier in achieving scalable quantum systems. Understanding and eliminating these sources of quantum decoherence in superconducting qubit devices requires dedicated studies aimed at establishing robust structure-property relationships that will enable researchers to target and eliminate defects strategically. As part of the Superconducting Materials and Systems (SQMS) center, we have extensively employed state-of-the-art materials characterization techniques, including scanning/transmission electron microscopy, secondary ion mass spectrometry, atom probe tomography, x-ray diffraction, and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy in conjunction with device measurements to elucidate such relationships. In this talk, I will discuss some of our recent findings, including linking atomic defects to microwave loss in surface oxides, linking impurities in the Josephson Junction to qubit parameters, and linking low temperature precipitates to device performance. By applying these insights, we have been able to strategically develop and implement mitigation strategies for reliable fabrication of high coherence superconducting qubits.

Murthy, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000176776866)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Slipstream Testing of Amine-Based Solvents at a Low-Rank Coal-Fired Power Plant

Conference presentation for 38th Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, Virtual, September 20–23, 2021. To better assess mitigation strategies for aerosol reduction to extend solvent life, the University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) installed a pilot-scale CO 2 absorption system at a lignite-fired plant in central North Dakota. The pilot-scale system was operated using both commercial KS-1™ solvent and advanced KS-21™ solvent provided by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI). MHI’s proprietary amine emission reduction unit (AERU™) technology was installed downstream of the absorber columns to reduce solvent losses by recovering amines at the system outlet. Fine particulate loading was measured throughout the capture system with and without a WESP operating and using both solvents. Captured particulate was brought back to the EERC to be analyzed for chemical composition and to be examined by scanning electron microscopy for particulate structure. These variables were then correlated to performance of particulate control devices in reducing aerosol formation and solvent losses.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storage Field Development Plan: One Earth Energy

This Storage Field Development plan presents the Storage Complex characterization results, construction, monitoring, and operational plans, and costs associated with the proposed One Earth Sequestration Carbon Capture and Storage (OES-CCS) site in McLean County, Illinois, near Gibson City. The proposed storage complex, known as the Mt. Simon Storage Complex, comprises the Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir and the primary seal, the Cambrian Eau Claire Formation. The lowermost Underground Source of Drinking Water (USDW) identified for the site is the Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone. Geologic characterization of the Mt. Simon Storage Complex at the OES-CCS site was performed by the Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III project, which also prepared and submitted three UIC Class VI applications to construct three injection wells; the permit applications were submitted and are in the federal EPA review process. A characterization well, OEE #1, was drilled to collect site-specific data. These data were analyzed and used to develop the UIC Class VI applications. The OEE #1 well will be converted to an in-zone monitoring (IZM) well for the injection phase. The proposed buildout for the OES-CCS site includes (1) three injection wells (OES #1, OES #2, and OES #3), (2) two IZM wells, (3) two above confining zone (ACZ) monitoring wells, one of which will be used to monitor the lowermost USDW, (4) capture and compression facilities, and (5) transportation facilities, i.e., pipelines. A pre-operational testing program was proposed in the Class VI permit application and will be employed at the site pending approval. Additional pre-injection (baseline), syn-injection, and post-injection monitoring and site care procedures will be followed by OES to ensure that injection activities are protective of human health and the environment. Injection is scheduled to begin in 2025, distributed across the three injection wells in accordance with the permit operating conditions. One Earth Sequestration intends to inject up to 90 million tonnes of CO 2 over a period of approximately 20 years. Injection will begin at approximately 0.5 million tonnes of CO 2 annually and ramp up to a maximum of 4.5 million tonnes annually. Daily injection rates are expected to range from 1,400 to 1,500 tonnes per day initially and reach a maximum of approximately 4,225 tonnes per day, depending on site geology and injectivity at each injection well location, and CO 2 availability. The costs associated with the OES-CCS project include pre-operational costs (e. g. additional seismic data acquisition and well drilling), capture and transportation facility and equipment costs, predicted field operating expenditures (OpEx), and decommissioning and post-injection site care (PISC) costs. The risks associated with project activities, such as site construction, injection operations, and verification of secure storage were evaluated, and mitigation strategies proposed to alleviate those risks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complete the Design, Cost Estimate, Assembly Plan, and Operating Instructions for a Bench-Scale Packed-Bed Tubular Methanol Catalyst Testing System

This report details the design of a test stand that converts carbon dioxide and hydrogen into methanol via a two-step process. The first step is a reverse water-gas shift reaction, carried out at 600°C and 25 bar to reduce carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide, and the second is a synthesis reaction that forms methanol at 260°C and 75 bar. The purpose of the system is to test catalysts for each of these steps. The test stand produces approximately 1.5 gallons of crude methanol (methanol mixed with water) per day, and recycles unreacted syngas for increased efficiency. At peak recycle, the stand is expected to consume 0.29 cylinders per day of carbon dioxide and 1.43 cylinders per day of hydrogen. It is planned to be built next to the Blue Star electrolysis unit in the Energy Systems Laboratory (ESL) and includes future plans of acquiring hydrogen from that stand rather than gas cylinders. At this phase of research, three key documents have been produced, as summarized in Table 1. These documents are primarily intended to describe the system and its operation, demonstrate that selected components are appropriate for the intended application, identify potential hazards, safeguards, and mitigation strategies, and ensure that the system is designed to appropriate standards. The body of the report and its appendices provide a narrative of the work completed in FY25. The parts required to build the test stand will be procured and assembled in FY26. Testing will be conducted in the final quarter.

10 - SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance and Stability Characterization of the ICARUS Light Detection System

The ICARUS detector, a key component of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab, consists of two identical T300 modules filled with liquid argon. It is equipped with a Light Detection System (LDS) based on 360 8-inch Hamamatsu R5912-MOD photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) arranged behind the wire planes to collect Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV, $\sim$ 128 nm) scintillation light. Operating under cryogenic conditions ( $\sim$ 87 K), the LDS is essential for determining the event start time (t0) with nanosecond precision for beam spill synchronization, improving longitudinal spatial resolution, and contributing to the event trigger and cosmic-ray mitigation. The performance of the LDS was investigated addressing both hardware and data analysis aspects. Following a progressive degradation in PMT gain observed during operations at FNAL, systematic gain measurements were first carried out from room temperature down to low temperatures. The results show stable performance at room temperature but a significant, irreversible reduction in gain at low temperatures. Based on these findings, a series of mitigation strategies were implemented in the ICARUS detector to preserve PMT performance and ensure reliable cryogenic operation. Currently, ongoing waveform analysis of the PMT signals is being performed to characterize signal shape, charge integration, and timing properties, aiming to refine and improve the agreement between experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations.

Saia, Clara [U. Catania (main); INAF, Catania; Cat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Coherence Limits in Superconducting Quantum Systems for Computing and Sensing

This talk will highlight recent efforts at the SQMS Center to develop qudit-based quantum computing architectures using superconducting three-dimensional (3D) cavities, as well as the use of these ultra-coherent cavities for quantum sensing. I will present systematic studies of materials and devices aimed at identifying and mitigating the dominant sources of decoherence—including two-level systems (TLS), quasiparticles, and other noise mechanisms—in both transmons and 3D cavities. These investigations include microwave loss characterization of niobium, tantalum, aluminum, their native oxides, and substrate materials such as silicon and sapphire. By combining measurements on qubits and cavities, we disentangle subsystem-specific loss mechanisms and establish a hierarchy of mitigation strategies, leading to transmon coherence times exceeding one millisecond. I will also discuss studies of quasiparticle dynamics, including quasiparticle bursts observed in qubits operated both above ground and at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory, and the observation that applied magnetic fields can suppress temporal T₁ fluctuations. Building on these advances, we demonstrate a record-coherence two-cell cavity-qudit system with coherence times exceeding 20 milliseconds. Leveraging tunable sideband interactions together with error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based error correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity quantum state control, including the preparation of Fock states up to N=20 with fidelities above 95% and the generation of high-fidelity two-mode entangled states. Finally, I will discuss how these ultra-coherent quantum systems are enabling emerging quantum sensing applications, including searches for dark matter and gravitational waves.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019442862X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cathodic Protection Modeling for Hanford Underground Double-Shell Tank Farms

Hanford stores millions of gallons of radioactive and chemically hazardous waste from the production of weapon materials in tank farms consisting of underground carbon-steel storage tanks surrounded by reinforced concrete. Six of these Hanford tank farms use double-shell storage tanks (DSTs). The DST farms were constructed from 1968 to 1986 with a planned 40–50 year design life, so some are already operating beyond their initial life expectancy. Ultrasonic testing (UT) has indicated significant thinning on the bottom of the secondary (outer) liner of these tanks, believed to arise from groundwater intrusion driving concrete side corrosion. There is no direct access to the steel/concrete interface between the tank and the concrete pad, making it difficult to apply a chemical-based mitigation strategy or to conduct repairs, but cathodic protection (CP) is a possible method to inhibit further concrete-side corrosion. Hanford already uses CP to protect below grade steel piping within the tank farms and connected to the tanks, but this system was not designed to protect the tank bottoms. CP design must account for the structures surrounding the DSTs, including the steel reinforcing bars (rebar) within the concrete pad and vault, various process lines, and the existing CP system. In this study, finite element analysis (FEA) modeling was carried out to simulate CP protection of 1) a single tank and CP anode to develop options for modeling the rebar and to compare to a simpler circuit model and 2) the entire Hanford AN tank farm as a representative example consisting of seven tanks, associated piping, and both existing and new CP anodes. Both circuit and FEA models predict that significant protective current could be delivered to the bottoms of the tanks with the addition of tank-protection anodes below the depth of the tanks. Simulations with only the existing pipe-protection anodes active confirmed that only a very small current to the tank bottoms is predicted under present conditions. Multiple simplified representations of the dome and wall rebar were tested to reduce the computational complexity of the tank-farm simulations, resulting in modeling the rebar as edge elements with a prescribed effective circumference that matches the real rebar surface area. The geometry of the rebar is also simplified into horizontal hoops around the tank walls and radial rebar over the dome with increased effective circumference to retain the target surface area. This simplification was found to greatly reduce the complexity and solution time of the models without large changes in current distributions, especially to the tank bottom. A range of values were tested for model parameters such as soil and concrete resistivities and polarization resistance to investigate their impact on the current and electric potential distributions. Depending on the parameters used, FEA simulations predict some risk of overprotection, particularly on the piping system; since overprotection can also lead to surface damage associated with hydrogen gas generation at the interface (e.g. hydrogen embrittlement or damage to coatings), this needs to be considered when refining the design of the new CP system. Comparison between the FEA models and the circuit model representation demonstrated that the circuit model could not match the predicted FEA current distribution, even when using the exact same surface areas. This discrepancy appeared to be at least partly attributable to the impact of the relative positions of the tank components and anodes to each other and to the ground surface. The FEA model accounts for the relative positions since it solves the governing equations in three dimensions, but the circuit model cannot account for the positioning. In particular, the circuit model underpredicts the current to the tank bottom and overpredicts the current to the dome compared to FEA for the baseline geometry. The FEA models omitted the electrically isolated rebar in the bottom concrete slab. However, a circuit based stray current model estimated that only 2.1% of the total current through the slab would stray into the rebar, corresponding to ~0.21 A for a target current density of 2 mA/ft2 to the tank bottom. The estimated corrosion driven by this amount of stray current is predicted to yield a lifetime of >400 years for the minimum rebar diameter, assuming an acceptable cross-section area loss of 10%.

d'Entremont, Anna [Savannah River National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2019

Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks: Web-Based Analytics Facilitating Situational Awareness in Unfolding Disease Outbreaks

Background: Information from historical infectious disease outbreaks provides real-world data about outbreaks and their impacts on affected populations. These data can be used to develop a picture of an unfolding outbreak in its early stages, when incoming information is sparse and isolated, to identify effective control measures and guide their implementation. Objective: This study aimed to develop a publicly accessible Web-based visual analytic called Analytics for the Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO) that uses historical disease outbreak information for decision support and situational awareness of an unfolding outbreak. Methods: We developed an algorithm to allow the matching of unfolding outbreak data to a representative library of historical outbreaks. This process provides epidemiological clues that facilitate a user’s understanding of an unfolding outbreak and facilitates informed decisions about mitigation actions. Disease-specific properties to build a complete picture of the unfolding event were identified through a data-driven approach. A method of analogs approach was used to develop a short-term forecasting feature in the analytic. The 4 major steps involved in developing this tool were (1) collection of historic outbreak data and preparation of the representative library, (2) development of AIDO algorithms, (3) development of user interface and associated visuals, and (4) verification and validation. Results: The tool currently includes representative historical outbreaks for 39 infectious diseases with over 600 diverse outbreaks. We identified 27 different properties categorized into 3 broad domains (population, location, and disease) that were used to evaluate outbreaks across all diseases for their effect on case count and duration of an outbreak. Statistical analyses revealed disease-specific properties from this set that were included in the disease-specific similarity algorithm. Although there were some similarities across diseases, we found that statistically important properties tend to vary, even between similar diseases. This may be because of our emphasis on including diverse representative outbreak presentations in our libraries. AIDO algorithm evaluations (similarity algorithm and short-term forecasting) were conducted using 4 case studies and we have shown details for the Q fever outbreak in Bilbao, Spain (2014), using data from the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from only the initial 2 weeks, AIDO identified historical outbreaks that were very similar in terms of their epidemiological picture (case count, duration, source of exposure, and urban setting). The short-term forecasting algorithm accurately predicted case count and duration for the unfolding outbreak. Conclusions: AIDO is a decision support tool that facilitates increased situational awareness during an unfolding outbreak and enables informed decisions on mitigation strategies. AIDO analytics are available to epidemiologists across the globe with access to internet, at no cost. In this study, we presented a new approach to applying historical outbreak data to provide actionable information during the early stages of an unfolding infectious disease outbreak.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study

Background The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. Objective In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. Methods We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. Results Our analysis demonstrated that the pre–national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. Conclusions Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗