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At least 973 records · Page 54

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A novel approach for estimating densities of secretive species from road-survey and spatial-movement data

Accurate estimates of population density are a critical component of effective wildlife conservation and management. However, many snake species are so secretive that their density cannot be determined using traditional methods such as capture–mark–recapture. Thus, the status of most terrestrial snake populations remains completely unknown. We developed a novel simulation-based technique for estimating density of secretive snakes that combined behavioural observations of snake road-crossing behaviour (crossing speed), effort-corrected road-survey data, and simulations of spatial movement patterns derived from radio-telemetry, without relying on mark–recapture. Here, we used radio-telemetry data to parameterise individual-based movement models that estimate the frequency with which individual snakes cross roads and used information on survey vehicle speed and snake crossing speed to determine the probability of detecting a snake, given that it crosses the road transect during a survey. Snake encounter frequencies during systematic road surveys were then interpreted in light of detection probabilities and simulation model results to estimate snake densities and to assess various factors likely to affect abundance estimates. We demonstrated the broad applicability of this approach through a case study of the imperiled southern hognose snake (Heterodon simus) in the North Carolina (USA) Sandhills. We estimated that H. simus occurs at average densities of 0.17 ha –1 in the North Carolina Sandhills and explored the sensitivity of this estimate to assumptions and variation in model parameters. Our novel method allowed us to generate the first abundance estimates for H. simus. We found that H. simus exists at low densities relative to congeners and other mid-sized snake species, raising concern that this species may not only have declined in geographic range, but may also occur at low densities or be declining in their strongholds, such as the North Carolina Sandhills. We present a framework for estimating density of species that have traditionally been considered too secretive to study at the population level. This method will greatly enhance our ability to study and manage a wide variety of snake species and could be applied to other secretive wildlife species that are most frequently encountered during road surveys.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a Power Plant Suitability Model for the Energy Zones Mapping Tool

This report provides an example of designing, developing, and running a power plant suitability model in the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a public, web-based mapping tool with a large spatial database focused on energy infrastructure, energy resources, and related siting factors. The example focuses on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants, which have several unique and interesting characteristics. NGCC plants typically provide peaking power to the electrical grid. Such plants can be started or stopped relatively quickly and are often used to supplement base load plants (such as nuclear or coal) during times of peak electrical consumption or to counterbalance lulls in variable power generation (such as wind or solar). Due to these and other factors, NGCC plants have been projected to increase in number under energy planning studies such as Hadley et al. The scope of the Hadley et. al. study is the Eastern Interconnection (EI), the electrical transmission grid serving much of the United States and Canada east of the Rocky Mountains. Results in the study are organized according to 22 Multi-region National—North American Electricity and Environment Model (NEEM) regions within the EI. NGCC plants usually have lower water requirements than other thermoelectric power plants they may replace; therefore, they are expected to have an interesting role in reducing the overall water requirements of energy generation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Gradient nanostructuring via compositional means

Nanocrystalline metals are inherently unstable against thermal and mechanical stimuli, commonly resulting in significant grain growth. Also, while these metals exhibit substantial Hall-Petch strengthening, they tend to suffer from low ductility and fracture toughness. With regard to the grain growth problem, alloying elements have been employed to stabilize the microstructure through kinetic and/or thermodynamic mechanisms. And to address the ductility challenge, spatially-graded grain size distributions have been developed to facilitate heterogeneous deformation modes: high-strength at the surface and plastic deformation in the bulk. In the present work, we combine these two strategies and present a new methodology for the fabrication of gradient nanostructured metals via compositional means. Here, we have demonstrated that annealing a compositionally stepwise Pt-Au film with a homogenous microstructure results in a film with a spatial microstructural gradient, exhibiting grains which can be twice as wide in the bulk compared to the outer surfaces. Additionally, phase-field modeling was employed for the comparison with experimental results and for further investigation of the competing mechanisms of Au diffusion and thermally induced grain growth. This fabrication method offers an alternative approach for developing the next generation of microstructurally stable gradient nanostructured films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrochemical Reactivity of Faceted β-Co(OH) 2 Single Crystal Platelet Particles in Alkaline Electrolytes

Oxygen evolution reaction is the kinetic bottleneck in the generation of H 2 gas through the electrolysis of water. Understanding how water is electrochemically converted to oxygen is key to the development of high-performance electrocatalysts that can enable energy storage technologies based on water to hydrogen fuel generation. The use of well-defined metal oxide systems allows for the isolation of spatial reactivity in bulk redox conversion and oxygen evolution reactions. Herein, we investigate the electrochemical reactivity of well-faceted single-crystalline β-Co(OH) 2 platelet particles in alkaline solutions as a function of pH, potential, and mass loading. A geometrical model that describes the electrochemically active surface area contributions for a porous electrode of stacked high-aspect ratio particles is developed, which pinpoints the origin of reactivity for redox conversion processes and oxygen evolution at the edge facets of the particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Resolving length-scale-dependent transient disorder through an ultrafast phase transition

Abstract Material functionality can be strongly determined by structure extending only over nanoscale distances. The pair distribution function presents an opportunity for structural studies beyond idealized crystal models and to investigate structure over varying length scales. Applying this method with ultrafast time resolution has the potential to similarly disrupt the study of structural dynamics and phase transitions. Here we demonstrate such a measurement of CuIr 2 S 4 optically pumped from its low-temperature Ir-dimerized phase. Dimers are optically suppressed without spatial correlation, generating a structure whose level of disorder strongly depends on the length scale. The redevelopment of structural ordering over tens of picoseconds is directly tracked over both space and time as a transient state is approached. This measurement demonstrates the crucial role of local structure and disorder in non-equilibrium processes as well as the feasibility of accessing this information with state-of-the-art XFEL facilities.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Multi-Scale Integrated Monitoring System for Enhancing Methane Emission Detection, Quantification & Prediction

This report details the progress and findings of a comprehensive study on reviewing existing solutions, identifying technology gaps, and formulating an “all-in-one” integrated strategy for developing the next-generation multiscale methane monitoring and modeling platform, conducted under grant number DE-FE0032292. Co-led by Dr. David Ebert, Dr. Binbin Weng, and Dr. Chenghao Wang at the University of Oklahoma, the project’s goal was to develop an integrated approach for building this engineering platform to detect, quantify, and mitigate methane emissions across various temporal scale, spatial scales, and sectors. The planning grant study began with an extensive review of various methane sensing and monitoring technologies and systems, surveying over 100 technology providers globally. This review revealed the prevalence of optical methods over chemical methods in commercially available sensors, with Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR), Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), and Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras being the most prevalent options. A trend towards more advanced optical techniques was observed, driven by increased regulatory focus and technological advancements. The technical evaluation of these sensing technologies provided crucial insights into their capabilities and limitations. The study examined emerging technologies such as Differential Absorption LiDAR (DIAL), which show promise for high-precision and long-range detection. The team then investigated the features and application bandwidth of various sensing platforms, including handheld, fixed/stationary, mobile, aerials, and spaceborne monitors. Pilot field studies were conducted to assess the capabilities of solutions for different emission scenarios. Field work with sensor deployments was conducted at three distinct site types: an oil & gas industry site, a cattle ranching operation, and a waste processing facility. The team also conducted a thorough review of methane flux inverse modeling approaches, focused on physically based methods. These approaches were categorized into simple, intermediate, and advanced methods. A realtime WRF-GHG (Weather Research and Forecasting-Greenhouse Gas) modeling system was developed and applied, incorporating multiple data sources to guide field experiments and inform methane plume detection. The project identified and analyzed numerous categories of methane data sources, including satellite measurements, ground-based sensors, and inventory databases. Key platforms examined include EDGAR, EPA GHGI, NASA TROPOMI, Carbon Mapper, and Climate TRACE, among others. The team proposed an architecture for a comprehensive methane monitoring platform. This system incorporates multi-source data acquisition, advanced data processing and assimilation, interactive visualization tools, and analytical capabilities for emissions forecasting and scenario analysis. The proposed platform aims to provide a user-friendly interface catering to various stakeholders, from researchers to policymakers. The architecture includes sophisticated data ingestion methods, a centralized data warehouse, and advanced analytical tools for data fusion and interpretation. To ensure the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed system, a comprehensive survey was conducted to gather stakeholder input on system requirements. Key findings include a strong need for integrating various data types and formats, a preference for real-time data updates and advanced visualization tools, and a demand for user-friendly interfaces catering to different expertise levels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Investigation into the propagation of Omega very low frequency signals and techniques for improvement of navigation accuracy including differential and composite omega

An analysis of Very Low Frequency propagation in the atmosphere in the 10-14 kHz range leads to a discussion of some of the more significant causes of phase perturbation. The method of generating sky-wave corrections to predict the Omega phase is discussed. Composite Omega is considered as a means of lane identification and of reducing Omega navigation error. A simple technique for generating trapezoidal model (T-model) phase prediction is presented and compared with the Navy predictions and actual phase measurements. The T-model prediction analysis illustrates the ability to account for the major phase shift created by the diurnal effects on the lower ionosphere. An analysis of the Navy sky-wave correction table is used to provide information about spatial and temporal correlation of phase correction relative to the differential mode of operation.

Source record↗

The Effects of Implementing TopModel Concepts in the Noah Model

Topographic effects on runoff generation have been documented observationally (e.g., Dunne and Black, 1970) and are the subject of the physically based rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979; Beven, 1986a;b) and its extensions, which incorporate variable soil transmissivity effects (Sivapalan et al, 1987, Wood et al., 1988; 1990). These effects have been shown to exert significant control over the spatial distribution of runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and by extension, the latent and sensible heat fluxes

Peters-Lidard, C. D.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2004

Topics include: Simulation Testing of Embedded Flight Software; Improved Indentation Test for Measuring Nonlinear Elasticity; Ultraviolet-Absorption Spectroscopic Biofilm Monitor; Electronic Tongue for Quantitation of Contaminants in Water; Radar for Measuring Soil Moisture Under Vegetation; Modular Wireless Data-Acquisition and Control System; Microwave System for Detecting Ice on Aircraft; Routing Algorithm Exploits Spatial Relations; Two-Finger EKG Method of Detecting Evasive Responses; Updated System-Availability and Resource-Allocation Program; Routines for Computing Pressure Drops in Venturis; Software for Fault-Tolerant Matrix Multiplication; Reproducible Growth of High-Quality Cubic-SiC Layers; Nonlinear Thermoelastic Model for SMAs and SMA Hybrid Composites; Liquid-Crystal Thermosets, a New Generation of High-Performance Liquid-Crystal Polymers; Formulations for Stronger Solid Oxide Fuel-Cell Electrolytes; Simulation of Hazards and Poses for a Rocker-Bogie Rover; Autonomous Formation Flight; Expandable Purge Chambers Would Protect Cryogenic Fittings; Wavy-Planform Helicopter Blades Make Less Noise; Miniature Robotic Spacecraft for Inspecting Other Spacecraft; Miniature Ring-Shaped Peristaltic Pump; Compact Plasma Accelerator; Improved Electrohydraulic Linear Actuators; A Software Architecture for Semiautonomous Robot Control; Fabrication of Channels for Nanobiotechnological Devices; Improved Thin, Flexible Heat Pipes; Miniature Radioisotope Thermoelectric Power Cubes; Permanent Sequestration of Emitted Gases in the Form of Clathrate Hydrates; Electrochemical, H2O2-Boosted Catalytic Oxidation System; Electrokinetic In Situ Treatment of Metal-Contaminated Soil; Pumping Liquid Oxygen by Use of Pulsed Magnetic Fields; Magnetocaloric Pumping of Liquid Oxygen; Tailoring Ion-Thruster Grid Apertures for Greater Efficiency; and Lidar for Guidance of a Spacecraft or Exploratory Robot.

Source record↗

Comparison of Computed and Measured Performance of a Pulsed Inductive Thruster Operating on Argon Propellant

Pulsed inductive plasma accelerators are electrodeless space propulsion devices where a capacitor is charged to an initial voltage and then discharged through a coil as a high-current pulse that inductively couples energy into the propellant. The field produced by this pulse ionizes the propellant, producing a plasma near the face of the coil. Once a plasma is formed if can be accelerated and expelled at a high exhaust velocity by the Lorentz force arising from the interaction of an induced plasma current and the magnetic field. A recent review of the developmental history of planar-geometry pulsed inductive thrusters, where the coil take the shape of a flat spiral, can be found in Ref. [1]. Two concepts that have employed this geometry are the Pulsed Inductive Thruster (PIT)[2, 3] and the Faraday Accelerator with Radio-frequency Assisted Discharge (FARAD)[4]. There exists a 1-D pulsed inductive acceleration model that employs a set of circuit equations coupled to a one-dimensional momentum equation. The model was originally developed and used by Lovberg and Dailey[2, 3] and has since been nondimensionalized and used by Polzin et al.[5, 6] to define a set of scaling parameters and gain general insight into their effect on thruster performance. The circuit presented in Fig. 1 provides a description of the electrical coupling between the current flowing in the thruster I1 and the plasma current I2. Recently, the model was upgraded to include an equation governing the deposition of energy into various modes present in a pulsed inductive thruster system (acceleration, magnetic flux generation, resistive heating, etc.)[7]. An MHD description of the plasma energy density evolution was tailored to the thruster geometry by assuming only one-dimensional motion and averaging the plasma properties over the spatial dimensions of the current sheet to obtain an equation for the time-evolution of the total energy. The equation set governing the dynamics of the coupled electrodynamic-current sheet system is composed of first-order, coupled ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved numerically without having to resort to much more complex 2-D finite element plasma simulations.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

Identification and correction of temporal and spatial distortions in scanning transmission electron microscopy

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has become the technique of choice for quantitative characterization of atomic structure of materials, where the minute displacements of atomic columns from high-symmetry positions can be used to map strain, polarization, octahedra tilts, and other physical and chemical order parameter fields. The latter can be used as inputs into mesoscopic and atomistic models, providing insight into the correlative relationships and generative physics of materials on the atomic level. However, these quantitative applications of STEM necessitate understanding the microscope induced image distortions and developing the pathways to compensate them both as part of a rapid calibration procedure for in situ imaging, and the post-experimental data analysis stage. Here, we explore the spatiotemporal structure of the microscopic distortions in STEM using multivariate analysis of the atomic trajectories in the image stacks. Based on the behavior of principal component analysis (PCA), we develop the Gaussian process (GP)-based regression method for quantification of the distortion function. The limitations of such an approach and possible strategies for implementation as a part of in-line data acquisition in STEM are discussed. Here, the analysis workflow is summarized in a Jupyter notebook that can be used to retrace the analysis and analyze the reader's data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Satellite Perspective of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport: From Qualitative Tracking to Quantitative Characterization

Evidence of aerosol intercontinental transport (ICT) is both widespread and compelling. Model simulations suggest that ICT could significantly affect regional air quality and climate, but the broad inter-model spread of results underscores a need of constraining model simulations with measurements. Satellites have inherent advantages over in situ measurements to characterize aerosol ICT, because of their spatial and temporal coverage. Significant progress in satellite remote sensing of aerosol properties during the Earth Observing System (EOS) era offers opportunity to increase quantitative characterization and estimates of aerosol ICT, beyond the capability of pre-EOS era satellites that could only qualitatively track aerosol plumes. EOS satellites also observe emission strengths and injection heights of some aerosols, aerosol precursors, and aerosol-related gases, which can help characterize aerosol ICT. After an overview of these advances, we review how the current generation of satellite measurements have been used to (1) characterize the evolution of aerosol plumes (e.g., both horizontal and vertical transport, and properties) on an episodic basis, (2) understand the seasonal and inter-annual variations of aerosol ICT and their control factors, (3) estimate the export and import fluxes of aerosols, and (4) evaluate and constrain model simulations. Substantial effort is needed to further explore an integrated approach using measurements from on-orbit satellites (e.g., A-Train synergy) for observational characterization and model constraint of aerosol intercontinental transport and to develop advanced sensors for future missions.

Yu, Hongbin↗

Hydropower Optimization Using Artificial Neural Network Surrogate Models of a High-Fidelity Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Model

Hydropower operations optimization subject to environmental constraints is limited by challenges associated with dimensionality and spatial and temporal resolution. The need for high-fidelity hydrodynamic and water quality models within optimization schemes is driven by improved computational capabilities, increased requirements to meet specific points of compliance with greater resolution, and the need to optimize operations of not just single reservoirs but systems of reservoirs. This study describes an important advancement for computing hourly power generation schemes for a hydropower reservoir using high-fidelity models, surrogate modeling techniques, and optimization methods. The predictive power of the high-fidelity hydrodynamic and water quality model CE-QUAL-W2 is successfully emulated by an artificial neural network, then integrated into a genetic algorithm optimization approach to maximize hydropower generation subject to constraints on dam operations and water quality. This methodology is applied to a multipurpose reservoir near Nashville, Tennessee, USA. The model successfully reproduced high-fidelity reservoir information while enabling 6.8% and 6.6% increases in hydropower production value relative to actual operations for dissolved oxygen (DO) limits of 5 and 6 mg/L, respectively, while witnessing an expected decrease in power generation at more restrictive DO constraints. Exploration of simultaneous temperature and DO constraints revealed capability to address multiple water quality constraints at specified locations. Here, the reduced computational requirements of the new modeling approach demonstrated an ability to provide decision support for reservoir operations scheduling while maintaining high-fidelity hydrodynamic and water quality information as part of the optimization decision support routines.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Computer simulation of reaction and transport of core-scale serpentinization of Fe-bearing olivine and evolution of geological hydrogen

We present reactive flow and transport simulations of core-scale serpentinization of forsteritic, Fe-bearing olivine under hydrothermal conditions. The model captures fluid flow, evolving porosity–permeability, and redox-controlled H 2 production in a cylindrical core over 55 days at 245 °C and 37 bar. Key processes include olivine dissolution, precipitation of serpentine and magnetite, and oxidation of Fe2+ to Fe 3+ . Here, results show strong coupling among flow velocity, alteration front propagation, and spatially heterogeneous H 2 generation. Elevated H2 concentrations align with inlet-localized magnetite precipitation, consistent with experiments. Secondary mineral formation reduces porosity and permeability, altering transport pathways. Reactive flow at the fluid–solid interface governs H 2 generation rates and distribution. Dissolved SiO2 promotes serpentine and talc formation by suppressing brucite, while bicarbonate extends reaction duration and moderates surface complexation effects.

Geologic hydrogen↗

Application of pan-sharpening algorithm for correlative multimodal imaging using AFM-IR

The coupling of atomic force microscopy with infrared spectroscopy (AFM-IR) offers the unique capability to characterize the local chemical and physical makeup of a broad variety of materials with nanoscale resolution. However, in order to fully utilize the measurement capability of AFM-IR, a three-dimensional dataset (2D map with a spectroscopic dimension) needs to be acquired, which is prohibitively time-consuming at the same spatial resolution of a regular AFM scan. In this paper, we provide a new approach to process spectral AFM-IR data based on a multicomponent pan-sharpening algorithm. This approach requires only a low spatial resolution spectral and a limited number of high spatial resolution single wavenumber chemical maps to generate a high spatial resolution hyperspectral image, greatly reducing data acquisition time. As a result, we are able to generate high-resolution maps of component distribution, produce chemical maps at any wavenumber available in the spectral range, and perform correlative analysis of the physical and chemical properties of the samples. We highlight our approach via imaging of plant cell walls as a model system and showcase the interplay between mechanical stiffness of the sample and its chemical composition. We believe our pan-sharpening approach can be more generally applied to different material classes to enable deeper understanding of that structure-property relationship at the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗