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At least 991 records · Page 55

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of streaked images of x-ray self-emission in laser-driven spherical implosions

Imaging of x-ray self-emission provides a powerful in situ measurement of the spatial and temporal evolution of high-energy-density plasmas. However, interpretation of these measurements requires detailed understanding of the data-generating process. This work presents a case study in the interpretation of x-ray self-emission data for the specific application of streaked one-dimensional slit imaging of spherical laser-driven implosions. A comprehensive generative model of the streaked slit-imaging diagnostic is developed including detailed treatments of the radiation transfer, photometrics, and photostatistics associated with the measurement. The model is used to generate realistic synthetic streaked images and to analyze experimental streaked images to extract important physical quantities of interest. An example analysis of streaked images from implosion experiments on the OMEGA laser is presented, where the model developed in this work is used to constrain the trajectory and peak velocity of the implosion using Bayesian inference.

Bayesian inference↗

Measurement of the near-threshold 𝐽/𝜓 photoproduction cross section with the CLAS12 experiment

We present measurements of the total and differential cross sections for near-threshold 𝐽/𝜓 photoproduction obtained with the CLAS12 detector at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. The results are based on data collected during the fall 2018 and spring 2019 running periods, using electron beams with energies of 10.6 and 10.2 GeV, respectively, scattered off a liquid-hydrogen target. Near-threshold 𝐽/𝜓 photoproduction offers a unique sensitivity to the strong interaction in the nonperturbative regime of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). The energy dependence of the cross section constrains the underlying 𝐽/𝜓 production mechanisms, including multigluon exchange and potential baryonic excitations. Additionally, the 𝑡 dependence of the differential cross section can be related to the transverse spatial distribution of gluons in the proton, providing critical input for theoretical descriptions of the gluonic structure of the proton. An interpretation of the results in terms of the gluon content of the proton is presented, providing new experimental constraints on QCD-inspired models of the proton structure and the role of gluonic degrees of freedom in hadronic mass generation.

form factors↗

Charge conservation and higher moments of charge fluctuations

Higher moments of distributions of net charge and baryon number in heavy-ion collisions have been proposed as signals of fundamental QCD phase transitions. In order to better understand background processes for these observables, models are presented which enable one to gauge the effects of local charge conservation, decays of resonances and clusters, Bose symmetrization, and volume fluctuations. Monte Carlo methods for generating samplings of particles consistent with local charge conservation are presented and are followed by a review of simple analytic models involving a single type of charge with a constant experimental efficiency. The main model consists of thermal emission superimposed onto a simple parametrization of collective flow, known as a blast wave, with emission being consistent with individual canonical ensembles. The spatial extent of local charge conservation is parameterized by the size and extent over which charge is conserved. Here, the sensitivity of third- and fourth-order moments, skewness and kurtosis, to these parameters, and to beam energy and baryon density is explored. Comparisons with STAR data show that a significant part of the observed non-Poissonian fluctuations in net-proton fluctuations are explained by charge and baryon-number conservation, but that measurements of the STAR collaboration for fluctuations of net electric charge significantly differ from expectations of the models presented here.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

UrbanScaping: Community Spatial Data Visualization & Analytics

Evaluating the electrification potential of buildings through retrofitting is crucial for reducing carbon emissions and the carbon footprint of built environments. This study leverages the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software, integrating the Model America database to create an urban context-based spatial analysis platform for community engagement and development. We selected Camp Hill Borough, PA, as a case study to analyze building-specific energy performance and evaluate the electrification potential of each building by switching to different Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems and measurement components. The simulation results generated by the workflow provide retrofitting suggestions to help mitigate the carbon footprint as well as energy saving statistics of buildings. Additionally, the developed web-based interface serves as a community engagement platform, allowing residents to provide feedback and further develop interactive communication protocols. The outcomes of this project offer a baseline for community electrification planning and contribute to the design of low-carbon communities.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales where their impacts are most prominent. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 50,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with observations for spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale distributions of TC translation speeds, lifetime maximum intensities and intensification rates. Also, spatial variations in coastal frequency and precipitation for landfalling TCs are well-reproduced in RAFT. In summary, the synthetic TC database based on RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for robust assessment of TC wind and rainfall risk for the US coastal regions and other areas affected by Atlantic TCs.

Xu, Wenwei↗

A numerical study of three-dimensional diurnal variations within the thermosphere.

A thermosphere model with a realistic temperature profile is assumed. Heat conduction waves are introduced in addition to gravity waves. The temporal and spatial distribution of ion-neutral collisions is taken into account. However, the influence of viscosity waves is neglected. Viscosity-wave effects are simulated by an effective height-dependent collision number. Numerical calculations are conducted of the generation and propagation of two of the most important symmetric tidal waves at thermospheric heights. The influence of the solar EUV-heat upon the generation of the two tidal modes is investigated.

Volland, H.↗

Non-Gaussian microwave background fluctuations from nonlinear gravitational effects

Whether the statistics of primordial fluctuations for structure formation are Gaussian or otherwise may be determined if the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Satellite makes a detection of the cosmic microwave-background temperature anisotropy delta T(sub CMB)/T(sub CMB). Non-Gaussian fluctuations may be generated in the chaotic inflationary model if two scalar fields interact nonlinearly with gravity. Theoretical contour maps are calculated for the resulting Sachs-Wolfe temperature fluctuations at large angular scales (greater than 3 degrees). In the long-wavelength approximation, one can confidently determine the nonlinear evolution of quantum noise with gravity during the inflationary epoch because: (1) different spatial points are no longer in causal contact; and (2) quantum gravity corrections are typically small-- it is sufficient to model the system using classical random fields. If the potential for two scalar fields V(phi sub 1, phi sub 2) possesses a sharp feature, then non-Gaussian fluctuations may arise. An explicit model is given where cold spots in delta T(sub CMB)/T(sub CMB) maps are suppressed as compared to the Gaussian case. The fluctuations are essentially scale-invariant.

Salopek, D. S.↗

Space-time modeling using environmental constraints in a mobile robot system

Grid-based models of a robot's local environment have been used by many researchers building mobile robot control systems. The attraction of grid-based models is their clear parallel between the internal model and the external world. However, the discrete nature of such representations does not match well with the continuous nature of actions and usually serves to limit the abilities of the robot. This work describes a spatial modeling system that extracts information from a grid-based representation to form a symbolic representation of the robot's local environment. The approach makes a separation between the representation provided by the sensing system and the representation used by the action system. Separation allows asynchronous operation between sensing and action in a mobile robot, as well as the generation of a more continuous representation upon which to base actions.

Slack, Marc G.↗

Sea bottom topography imaging with SAR

It is well known that under favorable meteorological and hydrodynamical conditions the bottom topography of shallow seas can be mapped with airborne or spaceborne imaging radar. This phenomenon was observed for the first time in 1969 by de Loor and co-workers in Q-band Side Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) imagery of sandwaves in the North Sea. It is now generally accepted that the imaging mechanism consists of three steps: (1) interaction between (tidal) current and bottom topography causes spatial modulations in the surface current velocity; (2) modulations in the surface current velocity give rise to variations in the spectrum of wind-generated waves, as described by the action balance equation; and (3) variations in the wave spectrum show up as intensity modulations in radar imagery. In order to predict radar backscatter modulations caused by sandwaves, an imaging model, covering the three steps, was developed by the Dutch Sea Bottom Topography Group. This model and some model results will be shown. On 16 Aug. 1989 an experiment was performed with the polarimetric P-, L-, and C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) of NASA/JPL. One scene was recorded in SAR mode. On 12 Jul. 1991 another three scenes were recorded, of which one was in the ATI-mode (Along-Track Interferometer). These experiments took place in the test area of the Sea Bottom Topography Group, 30 km off the Dutch coast, where the bottom topography is dominated by sand waves. In-situ data were gathered by a ship in the test area and on 'Measuring Platform Noordwijk', 20 km from the center of the test area. The radar images made during the experiment were compared with digitized maps of the bottom. Furthermore, the profiles of radar backscatter modulation were compared with the results of the model. During the workshop some preliminary results of the ATI measurements will be shown.

Vanderkooij, M. W. A.↗

Heliophysics from and of the Moon - the Solar Occultation Explorer (SOX)

The fundamental processes of the inner corona of the Sun at 1.1 to 3 solar radii can occasionally be investigated in detail by ground-based solar eclipse observations at quasi-yearly intervals. The combination of portable ground-based telescopes and the distant occulting edge provided by the lunar limb allows imaging of coronal structure and ion excitation emission lines at the highest available spatial and spectral resolution. These observations are limited to the visible eastern and western coronal regions and cannot view the intervening region over the central disk in the hemisphere towards Earth. A comparable configuration for continuous coronal observations from a spacecraft, e.g. with an external occulter disk on a 100-meter boom, is conceivable and could generate 3-D data models of the corona via tomographic reconstruction from time series measurements but may not now be technically or economically feasible. The faster and cheaper approach would be to make high cadence eclipse observations from one or more small satellites in lunar orbit. The Solar Occultation Explorer (SOX) is suggested as an explorer-class NASA mission that would conduct eclipse observations at daily to hourly cadence depending on the orbit. This smallsat would carry two principal instrument suites: (1 ) spectroscopic imaging telescope with sub-nm resolution for selected coronal emission lines diagnostic of coronal plasma charge state, denSity, and temperature, and (2) in-situ field & particle instrument suite for measurements of the solar wind and local lunar environments. The most comparable flight heritage instrument, the LASCO C1 spectrometer on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission, did achieve high visible-band spectral resolution with a Fabry-Perot interferometer but was limited in brightness sensitivity by usage of an internal occulter system and has not been operational since June 1998 The SOX mission concept is undergoing initial study by the Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX) project of the NASA Lunar Advanced Science and Exploration Research (LASER) program. This mission would offer high complementarity with the planned Solar Probe Plus spacecraft, designed to investigate.

Cooper, John F.↗

Integrating in situ environmental covariates in an American lobster catch model to improve impact assessment

The installation and operation of floating offshore wind power is an integral component of societal transition to renewable energy generation where fixed bottom offshore wind is not possible. However, it will cause unique ecosystem changes. To disentangle the effects of offshore wind installations from the concurrent effects of climate change and the fishing practices on commercially significant resources, we must develop detailed characterizations of the resources before development occurs. In the Gulf of Maine, American lobster is the most commercially and culturally important fishery. At the time of writing, this is the largest fishery by value in North America. Our understanding of baseline localized parameters (such as catch per trap at the spatial scale of individual turbines) should be informed by relationships to environmental, biological, and survey-specific functional drivers of catch. A more mechanistic understanding of catch will allow for strategic adjustments to Post- Deployment fishery responses and ultimately, the development of research- and commercial-scale floating offshore wind development. Here, we used survey data from the New England Aqua Ventus Pre-Construction Commercial Trapping Survey to develop Generalized Additive Models describing seasonal catch per trap for legal and sublegal lobsters. We found fall catch to be nearly twice that of spring. Bottom temperature dynamics could be used to predict catch, and the Fall survey was associated with a warmer temperature regime. By using analytical tools that incorporate environmental heterogeneity, we developed monitoring methods from preconstruction baseline data that will be applicable over the post-construction operating period of an offshore wind farm.

BACI↗

Improvements in Virtual Sensors: Using Spatial Information to Estimate Remote Sensing Spectra

Various instruments are used to create images of the Earth and other objects in the universe in a diverse set of wavelength bands with the aim of understanding natural phenomena. Sometimes these instruments are built in a phased approach, with additional measurement capabilities added in later phases. In other cases, technology may mature to the point that the instrument offers new measurement capabilities that were not planned in the original design of the instrument. In still other cases, high resolution spectral measurements may be too costly to perform on a large sample and therefore lower resolution spectral instruments are used to take the majority of measurements. Many applied science questions that are relevant to the earth science remote sensing community require analysis of enormous amounts of data that were generated by instruments with disparate measurement capabilities. In past work [1], we addressed this problem using Virtual Sensors: a method that uses models trained on spectrally rich (high spectral resolution) data to "fill in" unmeasured spectral channels in spectrally poor (low spectral resolution) data. We demonstrated this method by using models trained on the high spectral resolution Terra MODIS instrument to estimate what the equivalent of the MODIS 1.6 micron channel would be for the NOAA AVHRR2 instrument. The scientific motivation for the simulation of the 1.6 micron channel is to improve the ability of the AVHRR2 sensor to detect clouds over snow and ice. This work contains preliminary experiments demonstrating that the use of spatial information can improve our ability to estimate these spectra.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.

backup power↗

Testing Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Models Generated With Stochastic Stress Drop

In this study we investigate the performance of rupture dynamics modeling using heterogenous stress for a M6.5 crustal earthquake on a strike slip vertical fault. In our simulations we used heterogenous stress drop models with correlated stochastic perturbations following the work of Pitarka et al. (2009). The stress model with multiscale variability is designed to accommodate high-stress drop asperity areas and small-scale spatial stress variations. The stress drop and size of asperities are estimated following the IM2011 (Irikura and Miyake, 2011) recipe. In our spontaneous rupture modeling we use a linear slip weakening friction law, with depth depend strength excess, dynamic stress drop and slip weakening distance Dc. Our strategy in preparing the model parameters with vertical and lateral variability is in agreement with observations of earthquake rupture that have confirmed the existence of a shallow weak rupture zone consisting of ductile crustal material, located in the upper 4 km of the crust, and brittle seismogenic zone, underlying the weak zone. The primary objective of our study is to develop a procedure for preparing dynamic rupture models with multiscale variability, and validate spontaneous rupture modeling of strike-slip faults by comparing the resulting rupture kinematics and near-fault ground motion with empirical models for this type of rupture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Halogen Bond Structure and Dynamics from Molecular Simulations

Halogen bonding has emerged as an important noncovalent interaction in a myriad of applications, including drug design, supramolecular assembly, and catalysis. Current understanding of the halogen bond is informed by electronic structure calculations on isolated molecules and/or crystal structures that are not readily trans- ferable to liquids and disordered phases. To address this issue, we present a first-principles simulation-based approach for quantifying halogen bonds in molecular systems rooted in an understanding of nuclei-nuclei and electron-nuclei spatial correlations. We then demonstrate how this approach can be used to quantify the structure and dynamics of halogen bonds in condensed phases, using solid and liquid molecular chlorine as prototypical examples with high concentrations of halogen bonds. We close with a discussion of how the knowledge generated by our first-principles approach may inform the development of classical empirical models, with a consistent representation of halogen bonding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatio-spectral optical fission in time-varying subwavelength layers

Transparent conducting oxides are highly doped semiconductors that exhibit favourable optical features compared with metals, including reduced material losses, tuneable electronic and optical properties, and enhanced damage thresholds. Recently, the photonic community has renewed its attention towards these materials, recognizing their remarkable nonlinear optical properties in the near-infrared spectrum. The exceptionally large and ultrafast change in the refractive index, which can be optically induced in these compounds, extends beyond the boundaries of conventional perturbative analysis and makes this class of materials the closest approximation to a time-varying system. Here we report the spatio-spectral fission of an ultrafast pulse trespassing a thin film of aluminium zinc oxide with a non-stationary refractive index. By applying phase conservation to this time-varying layer, our model can account for both space and time refraction and explain, in quantitative terms, the spatial separation of both spectrum and energy. Our findings represent an example of extreme nonlinear phenomena on subwavelength propagation distances, which provides new insights into transparent conducting oxides’ transient optical properties. This can be critical for the ongoing research on photonic time crystals, on-chip generation of non-classical states of light, integrated optical neural networks, ultrafast beam steering and frequency-division multiplexing.

integrated optics↗

Modeling phonon-mediated quasiparticle poisoning in superconducting qubit arrays

Correlated errors caused by ionizing radiation impacting superconducting qubit chips are problematic for quantum error correction. Such impacts generate quasiparticle (QP) excitations in the qubit electrodes, which temporarily reduce qubit coherence significantly. The many energetic phonons produced by a particle impact travel efficiently throughout the device substrate and generate quasiparticles with high probability, thus causing errors on a large fraction of the qubits in an array simultaneously. Here, we describe a comprehensive strategy for the numerical simulation of the phonon and quasiparticle dynamics in the aftermath of an impact. We compare the simulations with experimental measurements of phonon-mediated QP poisoning and demonstrate that our modeling captures the spatial and temporal footprint of the QP poisoning for various configurations of phonon downconversion structures. We thus present a path forward for the operation of superconducting quantum processors in the presence of ionizing radiation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗