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DOE OSTI2019

Considerations for AMI-Based Operations for Distribution Feeders: Preprint

More than $5 billion in investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) technologies, AMI deployments, as pervasive secondary network voltage monitoring systems, provide opportunities for utility operations and controls. This paper focuses on the considerations for AMI-based tools and techniques as the industry moves toward operationalizing such large data sets. Phase identification is a first such tool. Numerous distribution network analysis, monitoring, and control applications - including volt/volt-ampere reactive control, state estimation, and distribution automation - require accurate phase connectivity information in the system models. The phase connectivity database maintained by utilities is inaccurate because of a significant amount of missing data, restoration activities, and network reconfiguration. Existing phase identification techniques that estimate phase connectivity work well in distribution feeders that have low or no photovoltaic (PV) generation; however, they fail to identify the phases accurately when considerable PV generation is present. This work addresses the phase identification problem in the presence of high PV generation using statistical analysis methods. Further, insights into the AMI data requirements for this application in terms of data window length and resolution are provided using sensitivity analysis performed on an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company. The results of this study show that the phase connectivity, even in the presence of high PV generation, can be accurately identified using statistical analysis of AMI data of 1 day.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scale bridging damage model for quasi-brittle metals informed with crack evolution statistics

Computationally efficient methods for bridging length scales, from highly resolved micro/meso-scale models that can explicitly model crack growth, to macro-scale continuum models that are more suitable for modeling large parts, have been of interest to researchers for decades. In this work, an improved brittle damage model is presented for the simulation of dynamic fracture in continuum scale quasi-brittle metal components. Crack evolution statistics, including the number, length, and orientation of individual cracks, are extracted from high-fidelity, finite discrete element method (FDEM) simulations and used to generate effective material moduli that reflect the material’s damaged state over time. This strategy allows for the retention of small-scale physical behaviors such as crack growth and coalescence in continuum scale hydrodynamic simulations. However, the high-fidelity simulations required to generate the crack statistics are computationally expensive. Thus, steps were taken to produce a flexible constitutive model to reduce the number of costly high-fidelity simulations needed to produce accurate results. A new stress based degradation criterion is introduced for the degradation of individual material zones. This allows for the development of a heterogeneous damage distribution within the bulk material. Then a flow stress model is added to the hydrodynamic simulation to account for plasticity in quasi-brittle materials. As a result, the effective moduli model can be applied to a larger range of materials. The effective moduli constitutive model is used to simulate beryllium flyer plate experiments. The results from the continuum scale simulations using statistics from a single high-fidelity simulation are found to be in excellent agreement with numerical and experimental velocity interferometer data. The same set of crack statistics are used to extrapolate the results of a higher rate flyer plate case using the effective moduli model. In conclusion, the extension of this model to higher rate cases shows promise for further reducing the number of costly high-fidelity simulations needed to generate crack statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Exact milestoning

A new theory and an exact computer algorithm for calculating kinetics and thermodynamic properties of a particle system are described. The algorithm avoids trapping in metastable states, which are typical challenges for Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations on rough energy landscapes. It is based on the division of the full space into Voronoi cells. Prior knowledge or coarse sampling of space points provides the centers of the Voronoi cells. Short time trajectories are computed between the boundaries of the cells that we call milestones and are used to determine fluxes at the milestones. The flux function, an essential component of the new theory, provides a complete description of the statistical mechanics of the system at the resolution of the milestones. We illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the exact Milestoning approach by comparing numerical results obtained on a model system using exact Milestoning with the results of long trajectories and with a solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. The theory uses an equation that resembles the approximate Milestoning method that was introduced in 2004 [A. K. Faradjian and R. Elber, J. Chem. Phys. 120(23), 10880-10889 (2004)]. However, the current formulation is exact and is still significantly more efficient than straightforward MD simulations on the system studied.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Research Needs for Trusted Analytics in National Security Settings

As artificial intelligence, machine learning, and statistical modeling methods become commonplace in national security applications, the drive to create trusted analytics becomes increasingly important. The goal of this report is to identify areas of research that can provide the foundational understanding and technical prerequisites for the development and deployment of trusted analytics in national security settings. Our review of the literature covered several disjoint research communities, including computer science, statistics, human factors, and several branches of psychology and cognitive science, which tend not to interact with one another or cite each other's literatures. As a result, there exists no agreed-upon theoretical framework for understanding how various factors influence trust and no well-established empirical paradigm for studying these effects. This report therefore takes three steps. First, we define several key terms in an effort to provide a unifying language for trusted analytics and to manage the scope of the problem. Second, we outline an empirical perspective that identifies key independent, moderating, and dependent variables in assessing trusted analytics. Though not a substitute for a theoretical framework, the empirical perspective does support research and development of trusted analytics in the national security domain. Finally, we discuss several research gaps relevant to developing trusted analytics for the national security mission space.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The maximum extent of the filaments and sheets in the cosmic web: an analysis of the SDSS DR17

Filaments and sheets are striking visual patterns in cosmic web. The maximum extent of these large-scale structures are difficult to determine due to their structural variety and complexity. We construct a volume-limited sample of galaxies in a cubic region from the SDSS, divide it into smaller subcubes and shuffle them around. We quantify the average filamentarity and planarity in the 3D galaxy distribution as a function of the density threshold and compare them with those from the shuffled realizations of the original data. The analysis is repeated for different shuffling lengths by varying the size of the subcubes. The average filamentarity and planarity in the shuffled data show a significant reduction when the shuffling scales are smaller than the maximum size of the genuine filaments and sheets. We observe a statistically significant reduction in these statistical measures even at a shuffling scale of $\sim 130 \, {{\, \rm Mpc}}$, indicating that the filaments and sheets in three dimensions can extend up to this length scale. They may extend to somewhat larger length scales that are missed by our analysis due to the limited size of the SDSS data cube. We expect to determine these length scales by applying this method to deeper and larger surveys in future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

A GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization

Pressure-based airspeed and altitude measurements for aircraft typically require calibration of the installed system to account for pressure sensing errors such as those due to local flow field effects. In some cases, calibration is used to meet requirements such as those specified in Federal Aviation Regulation Part 25. Several methods are used for in-flight pitot-static calibration including tower fly-by, pacer aircraft, and trailing cone methods. In the 1990 s, the introduction of satellite-based positioning systems to the civilian market enabled new inflight calibration methods based on accurate ground speed measurements provided by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Use of GPS for airspeed calibration has many advantages such as accuracy, ease of portability (e.g. hand-held) and the flexibility of operating in airspace without the limitations of test range boundaries or ground telemetry support. The current research was motivated by the need for a rapid and statistically accurate method for in-flight calibration of pitot-static systems for remotely piloted, dynamically-scaled research aircraft. Current calibration methods were deemed not practical for this application because of confined test range size and limited flight time available for each sortie. A method was developed that uses high data rate measurements of static and total pressure, and GPSbased ground speed measurements to compute the pressure errors over a range of airspeed. The novel application of this approach is the use of system identification methods that rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals in nearreal time. This method has been demonstrated in flight tests and has shown 2- bounds of approximately 0.2 kts with an order of magnitude reduction in test time over other methods. As part of this experiment, a unique database of wind measurements was acquired concurrently with the flight experiments, for the purpose of experimental validation of the optimization method. This paper describes the GPS-based pitot-static calibration method developed for the AirSTAR research test-bed operated as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls (IRAC) project in the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). A description of the method will be provided and results from recent flight tests will be shown to illustrate the performance and advantages of this approach. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data reduction will be included as well as potential applications.

Foster, John V.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for high explosive reactant and product equations of state

Equations of state (EOSs) are typically represented as physics-informed models with tunable parameters that are adjusted to replicate calibration data as closely as possible. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) allows for the development of an ensemble of EOS parameters that are consistent with the calibration data instead of a single EOS. In this work, we perform UQ for the reactant and product EOSs for a variety of high explosives (HEs). In doing so, we demonstrate a strategy for dealing with heterogeneous (both experimental and calculated) data. We also use a statistical distance metric to quantify the differences between the various HEs using the UQ results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Blinding multiprobe cosmological experiments

ABSTRACT The goal of blinding is to hide an experiment’s critical results – here the inferred cosmological parameters – until all decisions affecting its analysis have been finalized. This is especially important in the current era of precision cosmology, when the results of any new experiment are closely scrutinized for consistency or tension with previous results. In analyses that combine multiple observational probes, like the combination of galaxy clustering and weak lensing in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), it is challenging to blind the results while retaining the ability to check for (in)consistency between different parts of the data. We propose a simple new blinding transformation, which works by modifying the summary statistics that are input to parameter estimation, such as two-point correlation functions. The transformation shifts the measured statistics to new values that are consistent with (blindly) shifted cosmological parameters while preserving internal (in)consistency. We apply the blinding transformation to simulated data for the projected DES Year 3 galaxy clustering and weak lensing analysis, demonstrating that practical blinding is achieved without significant perturbation of internal-consistency checks, as measured here by degradation of the χ2 between the data and best-fitting model. Our blinding method’s performance is expected to improve as experiments evolve to higher precision and accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1984

Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F-bar 10.7)

The result of a study on the application of an improved statistical prediction method for estimating the intermediate-term (months) and long-term (years) behavior of solar flux is discussed. The study indicates that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by selecting sets of the solar flux data such that each set (cycle) starts and ends at the maxima (or minima) for the data base and initialization point of the procedure. Then one applies a Lagrangian least-squares statistical technique. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.

Holland, R. L.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Determining Individual Phase Properties in a Multi-phase Q&P Steel using Multi-scale Indentation Tests

A new inverse method was developed to predict the stress-strain behaviors of constituent phases in a multi-phase steel using the load-depth curves measured in nanoindentation tests combined with microhardness measurements. A power law hardening response was assumed for each phase, and an empirical relationship between hardness and yield strength was assumed. Adjustment was made to eliminate the indentation size effect and indenter bluntness effect. With the newly developed inverse method and statistical analysis of the hardness histogram for each phase, the average stress-strain curves of individual phases in a quench and partitioning (Q&P) steel, including austenite, tempered martensite and untempered martensite, were calculated and the results were compared with the phase properties obtained by in-situ high energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) test. It is demonstrated that multi-scale instrumented indentation tests together with the new inverse method are capable of determining the individual phase flow properties in multi-phase alloys.

Cheng, Guang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Nonlinear Navigation Analysis for a Europa Lander Mission Concept

Navigation strategies typically use linearized techniques to predict maneuver statistics. This method has been successfully employed on numerous high-energy trajectories, but may not be valid for low-energy ones due to the highly non-linear environment. We explore nonlinear navigational techniques applied to a Europa Lander concept by assessing trajectory sensitivity. The linearity assumption is tested at different phases of the endgame trajectory. Maneuver strategies and placement are considered to improve the delivery to Europa. Several cases of non-linear statistical maneuver Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to optimize maneuvers and compare ∆V statistics against conventional linear simulations.

Hernandez, Sonia↗

DOE OSTI2015

Identification of discriminant proteins through antibody profiling, methods and apparatus for identifying an individual

A method for determining a plurality of proteins for discriminating and positively identifying an individual based from a biological sample. The method may include profiling a biological sample from a plurality of individuals against a protein array including a plurality of proteins. The protein array may include proteins attached to a support in a preselected pattern such that locations of the proteins are known. The biological sample may be contacted with the protein array such that a portion of antibodies in the biological sample reacts with and binds to the proteins forming immune complexes. A statistical analysis method, such as discriminant analysis, may be performed to determine discriminating proteins for distinguishing individuals. Proteins of interest may be used to form a protein array. Such a protein array may be used, for example, to compare a forensic sample from an unknown source with a sample from a known source.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Identification of discriminant proteins through antibody profiling, methods and apparatus for identifying an individual

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling with diffusion models

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global fit of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalising flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of combinatoric background in seaquest using an event-mixing method

All experiments observing dilepton pairs (e.g. e + e -, μ + μ - ) must confront the existence of a combinatoricbackground caused by the combining of tracks not arising from the same physics vertex. Some method must be devised to calculate and remove this background. In this document we describe a particular event-mixing method relying on many of the unique aspects of the SeaQuest spectrometer and data. The method described here calculates the combinatoric background with correct normalization; i.e., there is no need to assign a floating normalization factor that is then determined in a subsequent fitting procedure. Numerous tests are applied to demonstrate the reliability of the method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Automatic generation of efficient orderings of events for scheduling applications

In scheduling a set of tasks, it is often not known with certainty how long a given event will take. We call this duration uncertainty. Duration uncertainty is a primary obstacle to the successful completion of a schedule. If a duration of one task is longer than expected, the remaining tasks are delayed. The delay may result in the abandonment of the schedule itself, a phenomenon known as schedule breakage. One response to schedule breakage is on-line, dynamic rescheduling. A more recent alternative is called proactive rescheduling. This method uses statistical data about the durations of events in order to anticipate the locations in the schedule where breakage is likely prior to the execution of the schedule. It generates alternative schedules at such sensitive points, which can be then applied by the scheduler at execution time, without the delay incurred by dynamic rescheduling. This paper proposes a technique for making proactive error management more effective. The technique is based on applying a similarity-based method of clustering to the problem of identifying similar events in a set of events.

Morris, Robert A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Controlling excited-state contamination in nucleon matrix elements

We present a detailed analysis of methods to reduce statistical errors and excited-state contamination in the calculation of matrix elements of quark bilinear operators in nucleon states. All the calculations were done on a 2+1-flavor ensemble with lattices of size 32 3 × 64 generated using the rational hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm at 𝑎 = 0.081 fm and with 𝑀 𝜋 = 312 MeV. The statistical precision of the data is improved using the all-mode-averaging method. We compare two methods for reducing excited-state contamination: a variational analysis and a 2-state fit to data at multiple values of the source-sink separation 𝑡 sep . We show that both methods can be tuned to significantly reduce excited-state contamination and discuss their relative advantages and cost effectiveness. Here a detailed analysis of the size of source smearing used in the calculation of quark propagators and the range of values of 𝑡 sep needed to demonstrate convergence of the isovector charges of the nucleon to the 𝑡 sep → ∞ estimates is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Median statistics estimate of the galactic rotational velocity

We compile a complete collection of 18 recent (from 2000 to 2017) measurements of Θ 0 , the rotational velocity of the Milky Way at R 0 (the radial distance of the Sun from the Galactic center). These measurements use tracers that are believed to more accurately reflect the systematic rotation of the Milky Way. Unlike other recent compilations of Θ 0 , our collection includes only independent measurements. We find that these 18 measurements are distributed in a mildly non-Gaussian fashion and a median statistics estimate indicates Θ 0 = 220 ± 10 kms –1 (2σ error) as the most reliable summary, at R 0 = 8.0 ± 0.3 kpc (2σ error).

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗