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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Approach for Determining Microlens System Properties with High-angular resolution Follow-up Imaging

We present the details of the Bayesian analysis of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2016-BLG-227, whose excess flux is likely due to a source/lens companion or an unrelated ambient star, as well as of the assumed prior distributions. Furthermore, we apply this method to four reported planetary events, MOA-2008-BLG-310, MOA2011-BLG-293, OGLE-2012-BLG-0527, and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950, where adaptive optics observations have detected excess flux at the source star positions. For events with small angular Einstein radii, our lens mass estimates are more uncertain than those of previous analyses, which assumed that the excess was due to the lens. Our predictions for MOA-2008-BLG-310 and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950 are consistent with recent results on these events obtained via Keck and Hubble Space Telescope observations when the source star is resolvable from the lens star. For events with small angular Einstein radii, we find that it is generally difficult to conclude whether the excess flux comes from the host star. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the lens star by measuring its proper motion relative to the source star to determine whether the excess flux comes from the lens star. Even without such measurements, our method can be used to statistically test the dependence of the planet-hosting probability on the stellar mass.

Naoki Koshimoto↗
DOE OSTI2016

Percutaneous Renal Tumor Ablation: Radiation Exposure During Cryoablation and Radiofrequency Ablation

IntroductionOnce reserved solely for non-surgical cases, percutaneous ablation is becoming an increasingly popular treatment option for a wider array of patients with small renal masses and the radiation risk needs to be better defined as this transition continues.Materials and MethodsRetrospective review of our renal tumor ablation database revealed 425 patients who underwent percutaneous ablation for treatment of 455 renal tumors over a 5-year time period. Imparted radiation dose information was reviewed for each procedure and converted to effective patient dose and skin dose using established techniques. Statistical analysis was performed with each ablative technique.ResultsFor the 331 cryoablation procedures, the mean DLP was 6987 mGycm (SD = 2861) resulting in a mean effective dose of 104.7 mSv (SD = 43.5) and the mean CTDI{sub vol} was 558 mGy (SD = 439) resulting in a mean skin dose of 563.2 mGy (SD = 344.1). For the 124 RFA procedures, the mean DLP was 3485 mGycm (SD = 1630) resulting in a mean effective dose of 50.3 mSv (SD = 24.0) and the mean CTDI{sub vol} was 232 mGy (SD = 149) resulting in a mean skin dose of 233.2 mGy (SD = 117.4). The difference in patient radiation exposure between the two renal ablation techniques was statistically significant (p < 0.001).ConclusionBoth cryoablation and RFA imparted an average skin dose that was well below the 2 Gy deterministic threshold for appreciable sequela. Renal tumor cryoablation resulted in a mean skin and effective radiation dose more than twice that for RFA. The radiation exposure for both renal tumor ablation techniques was at the high end of the medical imaging radiation dose spectrum.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Microstructure Reconstruction of Sheet Molding Composite Using a Random Chips Packing Algorithm

Fiber-reinforced polymer composites are strong candidates for structural materials to replace steel and light alloys in lightweight vehicle design because of their low density and relatively high strength. In the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) development of carbon fiber composites, microstructure reconstruction algorithms are needed to generate material microstructure representative volume element (RVE) based on the material processing information. The microstructure RVE reconstruction enables the material property prediction by finite element analysis (FEA)This paper presents an algorithm to reconstruct the microstructure of a chopped carbon fiber/epoxy laminate material system produced by compression molding, normally known as sheet molding compounds (SMC). The algorithm takes the result from material’s manufacturing process as inputs, such as the orientation tensor of fibers, the chopped fiber sheet geometry, and the fiber volume fraction. The chopped fiber sheets are treated as deformable rectangle chips and a random packing algorithm is developed to pack these chips into a square plate. The RVE is built in a layer-by-layer fashion until the desired number of lamina is reached, then a fine tuning process is applied to finalize the reconstruction. Compared to the previous methods, this new approach has the ability to model bended fibers by allowing limited amount of overlaps of rectangle chips. Furthermore, the method does not need SMC microstructure images, for which the image-based characterization techniques have not been mature enough, as inputs. Case studies are performed and the results show that the statistics of the reconstructed microstructures generated by the algorithm matches well with the target input parameters from processing.

Huang, Tianyu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow and heat transfer in the wake of a triangular arrangement of spheres

This research work seeks to investigate the influence of spacing and heat transfer on the wake behavior of a triangular arrangement of spheres. Four experimental configurations have been investigated at three Reynolds numbers, Re 1 = 350, Re 2 = 700, and Re 3 = 1050. Two isothermal cases were investigated with spacing between the spheres of zero and one sphere diameter, and two cases were investigated with an applied heat flux at the same spacing conditions. The time resolved particle image velocimetry results revealed various flow phenomena including flow separations, von Karman vortex shedding, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities. The turbulent statistics reveal the effect of proximity and heat transfer on the time averaged values of the wake size, turbulent strengths, and Reynolds shear stress in the wake of each sphere, namely, the laminarization effects from the addition of heat and the suppression of the lead sphere wake from the proximity of the trailing spheres. These results are complemented by the application of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to the flow fields, which extracts the coherent structures from the flow. Here the modes that describe the coherent structures are extracted and described in detail, which provide further insight into effects of the experimental conditions on the temporal behavior of the flow. Many of the low order modes are found to be associated in pairs, corresponding to asymmetric structures or advection of a given structure downstream. The capability of POD to produce reduced order models of the flow is then utilized to facilitate vortex identification analysis. A turbulent kinetic energy based mode truncation criteria, which has been found to enhance vortex identification capability, is applied to select the POD modes and temporal coefficients to be used in the reduced order modeling. The reconstructed velocity fields are then analyzed with vortex identification algorithms to extract the vortex cores and boundaries. The combination of these approaches allows the study of the effect of proximity and heat transfer on the vortex characteristics, such as size, strength, and distribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1982

A Study of Feature Extraction Using Divergence Analysis of Texture Features

An empirical study of texture analysis for feature extraction and classification of high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery (10 meters) is presented in terms of specific land cover types. The principal method examined is the use of spatial gray tone dependence (SGTD). The SGTD method reduces the gray levels within a moving window into a two-dimensional spatial gray tone dependence matrix which can be interpreted as a probability matrix of gray tone pairs. Haralick et al (1973) used a number of information theory measures to extract texture features from these matrices, including angular second moment (inertia), correlation, entropy, homogeneity, and energy. The derivation of the SGTD matrix is a function of: (1) the number of gray tones in an image; (2) the angle along which the frequency of SGTD is calculated; (3) the size of the moving window; and (4) the distance between gray tone pairs. The first three parameters were varied and tested on a 10 meter resolution panchromatic image of Maryville, Tennessee using the five SGTD measures. A transformed divergence measure was used to determine the statistical separability between four land cover categories forest, new residential, old residential, and industrial for each variation in texture parameters.

Hallada, W. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Determination of X-ray detection limit and applications in perovskite X-ray detectors

X-ray detection limit and sensitivity are important figure of merits for perovskite X-ray detectors, but literatures lack a valid mathematic expression for determining the lower limit of detection for a perovskite X-ray detector. In this work, we present a thorough analysis and new method for X-ray detection limit determination based on a statistical model that correlates the dark current and the X-ray induced photocurrent with the detection limit. The detection limit can be calculated through the measurement of dark current and sensitivity with an easy-to-follow practice. Alternatively, the detection limit may also be obtained by the measurement of dark current and photocurrent when repeatedly lowering the X-ray dose rate. While the material quality is critical, we show that the device architecture and working mode also have a significant influence on the sensitivity and the detection limit. Our work establishes a fair comparison metrics for material and detector development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2001

A semi-automatic method for left ventricle volume estimate: an in vivo validation study

This study aims to the validation of the left ventricular (LV) volume estimates obtained by processing volumetric data utilizing a segmentation model based on level set technique. The validation has been performed by comparing real-time volumetric echo data (RT3DE) and magnetic resonance (MRI) data. A validation protocol has been defined. The validation protocol was applied to twenty-four estimates (range 61-467 ml) obtained from normal and pathologic subjects, which underwent both RT3DE and MRI. A statistical analysis was performed on each estimate and on clinical parameters as stroke volume (SV) and ejection fraction (EF). Assuming MRI estimates (x) as a reference, an excellent correlation was found with volume measured by utilizing the segmentation procedure (y) (y=0.89x + 13.78, r=0.98). The mean error on SV was 8 ml and the mean error on EF was 2%. This study demonstrated that the segmentation technique is reliably applicable on human hearts in clinical practice.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainty Optimization Applied to the Monte Carlo Analysis of Planetary Entry Trajectories

Recently, strong evidence of liquid water under the surface of Mars and a meteorite that might contain ancient microbes have renewed interest in Mars exploration. With this renewed interest, NASA plans to send spacecraft to Mars approx. every 26 months. These future spacecraft will return higher-resolution images, make precision landings, engage in longer-ranging surface maneuvers, and even return Martian soil and rock samples to Earth. Future robotic missions and any human missions to Mars will require precise entries to ensure safe landings near science objective and pre-employed assets. Potential sources of water and other interesting geographic features are often located near hazards, such as within craters or along canyon walls. In order for more accurate landings to be made, spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere need to use lift to actively control the entry. This active guidance results in much smaller landing footprints. Planning for these missions will depend heavily on Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo trajectory simulations have been used with a high degree of success in recent planetary exploration missions. These analyses ascertain the impact of off-nominal conditions during a flight and account for uncertainty. Uncertainties generally stem from limitations in manufacturing tolerances, measurement capabilities, analysis accuracies, and environmental unknowns. Thousands of off-nominal trajectories are simulated by randomly dispersing uncertainty variables and collecting statistics on forecast variables. The dependability of Monte Carlo forecasts, however, is limited by the accuracy and completeness of the assumed uncertainties. This is because Monte Carlo analysis is a forward driven problem; beginning with the input uncertainties and proceeding to the forecasts outputs. It lacks a mechanism to affect or alter the uncertainties based on the forecast results. If the results are unacceptable, the current practice is to use an iterative, trial-and-error approach to reconcile discrepancies. Therefore, an improvement to the Monte Carlo analysis is needed that will allow the problem to be worked in reverse. In this way, the largest allowable dispersions that achieve the required mission objectives can be determined quantitatively.

Olds, John↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D radiated power analysis of JET SPI discharges using the Emis3D forward modeling tool

Abstract Precise values for radiated energy in tokamak disruption experiments are needed to validate disruption mitigation techniques for burning plasma tokamaks like ITER and SPARC. Control room analysis of radiated power ( P rad ) on JET assumes axisymmetry, since fitting 3D radiation structures with limited bolometry coverage is an under-determined problem. In mitigated disruptions, radiation is toroidally asymmetric and 3D, due to fast-growing 3D MHD modes and localized impurity sources. To address this problem, Emis3D adopts a physics motivated forward modeling (‘guess and check’) approach, comparing experimental bolometry data to synthetic data from user-defined radiation structures. Synthetic structures are observed with the Cherab modeling framework and a best fit chosen using a reduced χ 2 statistic. 2D tomographic inversion models are tested, as well as helical flux tubes and 3D MHD simulated structures from JOREK. Two nominally identical pure neon shattered pellet injection (SPI) mitigated discharges in JET are analyzed. 2D tomographic inversions with added toroidal freedom are the best fits in the thermal quench (TQ) and current quench (CQ). In the pre-TQ, 2D reconstructions are statistically the best fits, but are likely over-optimized and do not capture the 3D radiation structure seen in fast camera images. The next-best pre-TQ fits are helical structures that extend towards the high-field side, consistent with an impurity flow under the magnetic nozzle effect also observed in JOREK simulations. Whole-disruption radiated fractions of 0.98 + 0.03 / − 0.29 and 1.01 + 0.02 / − 0.17 are found, suggesting that the stored energy may have been fully mitigated by each SPI, although mitigation efficiencies well below ITER and SPARC requirements for high energy pulses are still within the large uncertainties. Emis3D is also used to validate JOREK SPI simulations, and confirms improvements in matching experiment from changes to impurity modeling. Time-dependent toroidal peaking factors are calculated and discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous velocity and density measurements of fully developed Rayleigh-Taylor mixing

Here, the dynamics of molecular mixing and the energy transfer process in the Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI) are studied through the collection of simultaneous density-velocity measurements. These experiments provide simultaneous density-velocity field measurements, in contrast to previous point measurements. Statistically stationary experiments are performed in a “convective-type” gas tunnel facility, with density contrast achieved through the injection of helium into the bottom stream. Three experiments at Atwood number ≈ 0.1 are captured at three outer scale Reynolds numbers Re = 520, 2260, and 4050. Particle image velocimetry and laser induced fluorescence are employed simultaneously. Statistics of the density and velocity show self-similar collapse of RTI profiles at large Reynolds number Re >2000. Flat velocity profiles indicate homogeneous turbulence characteristics in the core of the mixing region. Significant anisotropy develops in the flow, with horizontal velocity fluctuations being only 60% of the vertical velocity fluctuations. The turbulent mass flux is found to be asymmetric about the centerline, with increased peak towards the spike. Measurements of the molecular mixing show that mixing is maximized at the core of the flow and increases with increased Reynolds number. The transport equation of density-specific-volume correlation b shows that it is mostly produced in the core of the mixing region, and that the spatial evolution of its profile is the result of transport by bulk motion of the bubble and spike. Energy transfer from gravitational potential energy to turbulent kinetic energy and viscous dissipation is observed to occur in the experiment with a ratio of dissipated energy to potential energy released of 38%. The analysis of the turbulent kinetic energy transport equation budget reveals that production is the primary mechanism towards the growth of turbulent kinetic energy in the core of the flow, and is asymmetrically slightly skewed towards the spike. However, it is through the transport that the strong advection at the edges of the mixing region is maintained.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2020

Beam Propagation Through Atmospheric Turbulence Using an Altitude-Dependent Structure Profile with Non-Uniformly Distributed Phase Screens

Modeling the effects of atmospheric turbulence on optical beam propagation is a key element in the design and analysis of free-space optical communication systems. Numerical wave optics simulations provide a particularly useful technique for understanding the degradation of the optical field in the receiver plane when the analytical theory is insufficient for characterizing the atmospheric channel. Motivated by such an application, we use a split-step method modeling the turbulence along the propagation path as a series of thin random phase screens with modified von Karman refractive index statistics using the Hufnagel-Valley turbulence profile to determine the effective structure constant for each screen. In this work, we employ a space-to-ground case study to examine the irradiance and phase statistics for both uniformly and non-uniformly spaced screens along the propagation path and compare to analytical results. We find that better agreement with the analytical theory is obtained using a non-uniform spacing with the effective structure constant for each screen chosen to minimize its contribution to the scintillation in the receiver plane. We evaluate this method as a flexible alternative to other standard layered models used in astronomical imaging applications.

Chahine, Yousef K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Overview of NASARTI (NASA Radiation Track Image) Program: Highlights of the Model Improvement and the New Results

This presentation summarizes several years of research done by the co-authors developing the NASARTI (NASA Radiation Track Image) program and supporting it with scientific data. The goal of the program is to support NASA mission to achieve a safe space travel for humans despite the perils of space radiation. The program focuses on selected topics in radiation biology that were deemed important throughout this period of time, both for the NASA human space flight program and to academic radiation research. Besides scientific support to develop strategies protecting humans against an exposure to deep space radiation during space missions, and understanding health effects from space radiation on astronauts, other important ramifications of the ionizing radiation were studied with the applicability to greater human needs: understanding the origins of cancer, the impact on human genome, and the application of computer technology to biological research addressing the health of general population. The models under NASARTI project include: the general properties of ionizing radiation, such as particular track structure, the effects of radiation on human DNA, visualization and the statistical properties of DSBs (DNA double-strand breaks), DNA damage and repair pathways models and cell phenotypes, chromosomal aberrations, microscopy data analysis and the application to human tissue damage and cancer models. The development of the GUI and the interactive website, as deliverables to NASA operations teams and tools for a broader research community, is discussed. Most recent findings in the area of chromosomal aberrations and the application of the stochastic track structure are also presented.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of point cloud and image-based models for calorimeter fast simulation

Score based generative models are a new class of generative models that have been shown to accurately generate high dimensional calorimeter datasets. Recent advances in generative models have used images with 3D voxels to represent and model complex calorimeter showers. Point clouds, however, are likely a more natural representation of calorimeter showers, particularly in calorimeters with high granularity. Furthermore, point clouds preserve all of the information of the original simulation, more naturally deal with sparse datasets, and can be implemented with more compact models and data files. In this work, two state-of-the-art score based models are trained on the same set of calorimeter simulation and directly compared.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cloud field classification based on textural features

An essential component in global climate research is accurate cloud cover and type determination. Of the two approaches to texture-based classification (statistical and textural), only the former is effective in the classification of natural scenes such as land, ocean, and atmosphere. In the statistical approach that was adopted, parameters characterizing the stochastic properties of the spatial distribution of grey levels in an image are estimated and then used as features for cloud classification. Two types of textural measures were used. One is based on the distribution of the grey level difference vector (GLDV), and the other on a set of textural features derived from the MaxMin cooccurrence matrix (MMCM). The GLDV method looks at the difference D of grey levels at pixels separated by a horizontal distance d and computes several statistics based on this distribution. These are then used as features in subsequent classification. The MaxMin tectural features on the other hand are based on the MMCM, a matrix whose (I,J)th entry give the relative frequency of occurrences of the grey level pair (I,J) that are consecutive and thresholded local extremes separated by a given pixel distance d. Textural measures are then computed based on this matrix in much the same manner as is done in texture computation using the grey level cooccurrence matrix. The database consists of 37 cloud field scenes from LANDSAT imagery using a near IR visible channel. The classification algorithm used is the well known Stepwise Discriminant Analysis. The overall accuracy was estimated by the percentage or correct classifications in each case. It turns out that both types of classifiers, at their best combination of features, and at any given spatial resolution give approximately the same classification accuracy. A neural network based classifier with a feed forward architecture and a back propagation training algorithm is used to increase the classification accuracy, using these two classes of features. Preliminary results based on the GLDV textural features alone look promising.

Sengupta, Sailes Kumar↗
NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of images obtained by the Phobos 2 spacecraft

The reflection spectrum and density of the Martian satellite, Phobos, suggests that it may be a captured C-type asteroid and hence may contain relatively unaltered organic material from the early history of the solar system. Since there is evidence from isotopic anomalies that meteorites presumably derived from such asteroids contain preserved interstellar material, it is conceivable that evidence for interstellar matter might also be present on Phobos. The present research concerns interpretation of the chemical composition of Phobos' surface and analysis of images of Phobos taken by the FREGAT camera equipment aboard the Phobos 2 Spacecraft, including both disk-integrated and disk-resolved photometry. Because the surface of Phobos is a regolith, spectral information on the surface composition will be convolved with information on the surface texture. A primary goal was to untangle these effects. Unfortunately, the Phobos 1 Spacecraft lost contact with Earth during its transit to Mars, and Phobos 2 likewise lost contact after two months in orbit around Mars. Thus, the hovering phase of very close approach and the landing of instruments on the surface of Phobos did not take place, so no data on the elemental composition of the surface is available. However, 37 images were obtained of the satellite. The results include the first such observations at near infrared wavelengths, for which disk-integrated results show that the corresponding geometric albedo is quite small and very similar to the value in the blue. The resolved surface photometry was analyzed by developing new methods of radiative transfer in rough surface layers and a procedure referred to as statistical photoclinometry. The results provide root mean square surface slopes on scales from the order of 1 millimeter to 250 meters, albedo fluctuations, and corresponding correlation lengths.

Irvine, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evidence for the Thermal Sunyaev Zeldovich Effect Associated with Quasar Feedback

Using a radio-quiet subsample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic quasar catalogue, spanning redshifts 0.5-3.5, we derive the mean millimetre and far-infrared quasar spectral energy distributions (SEDs) via a stacking analysis of Atacama Cosmology Telescope and Herschel-Spectral and Photometric Imaging REceiver data. We constrain the form of the far-infrared emission and find 3 sigma-4 sigma evidence for the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect, characteristic of a hot ionized gas component with thermal energy (6.2 plus or minus 1.7) × 10 (exp 60) erg. This amount of thermal energy is greater than expected assuming only hot gas in virial equilibrium with the dark matter haloes of (1-5) × 10(exp 12) h(exp −1) solar mass that these systems are expected to occupy, though the highest quasar mass estimates found in the literature could explain a large fraction of this energy. Our measurements are consistent with quasars depositing up to (14.5 +/- 3.3)tau (sub 8)(exp -1) per cent of their radiative energy into their circumgalactic environment if their typical period of quasar activity is tau(sub 8) x 108 yr. For high quasar host masses, approximately 10(exp 13) h(exp −1) solar mass, this percentage will be reduced. Furthermore, the uncertainty on this percentage is only statistical and additional systematic uncertainties enter at the 40 per cent level. The SEDs are dust dominated in all bands and we consider various models for dust emission. While sufficiently complex dust models can obviate the SZ effect, the SZ interpretation remains favoured at the 3 sigma-4 sigma level for most models.

Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Photospheric Magnetic Evolution in the WHI Active Regions

Sequences of line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms recorded by the Michelson Doppler Imager are used to quantitatively characterize photospheric magnetic structure and evolution in three active regions that rotated across the Sun s disk during the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), in an attempt to relate the photospheric magnetic properties of these active regions to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Several approaches are used in our analysis, on scales ranging from whole active regions, to magnetic features, to supergranular scales, and, finally, to individual pixels. We calculated several parameterizations of magnetic structure and evolution that have previously been associated with flare and CME activity, including total unsigned magnetic flux, magnetic flux near polarity-inversion lines, amount of canceled flux, the "proxy Poynting flux," and helicity flux. To catalog flare events, we used flare lists derived from both GOES and RHESSI observations. By most such measures, AR 10988 should have been the most flare- and CME-productive active region, and AR 10989 the least. Observations, however, were not consistent with this expectation: ARs 10988 and 10989 produced similar numbers of flares, and AR 10989 also produced a few CMEs. These results highlight present limitations of statistics-based flare and CME forecasting tools that rely upon line-of-sight photospheric magnetic data alone.

Welsch, B. T.↗