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DOE OSTI2026

NLR's FleetDNA Speed Distributions for EPA MOVES

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) models mobile sources of air toxics at small and large scales across the Unites States. Vehicle speed distributions based on the type of vehicle, type of road traveled, and hour of the day are inputs into MOVES. In conjunction with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) inputs, they are used to estimate total operation time and select the relevant driving cycles from which running operating modes and emissions are estimated. In an ongoing research effort, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) partnered with the EPA to provide default average speed data for heavy-duty vehicles based on NLR's FleetDNA database and the Bourns College of Engineering - Center for Environmental Research and Technology (CE-CERT) data set from the University of California, Riverside.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Sub-Second Parallel State Estimation

This report describes the performance of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) sub-second parallel state estimation (PSE) tool using the utility data from the Bonneville Power Administrative (BPA) and discusses the benefits of the fast computational speed for power system applications. The test data were provided by BPA. They are two-days’ worth of hourly snapshots that include power system data and measurement sets in a commercial tool format. These data are extracted out from the commercial tool box and fed into the PSE tool. With the help of advanced solvers, the PSE tool is able to solve each BPA hourly state estimation problem within one second, which is more than 10 times faster than today’s commercial tool. This improved computational performance can help increase the reliability value of state estimation in many aspects: (1) the shorter the time required for execution of state estimation, the more time remains for operators to take appropriate actions, and/or to apply automatic or manual corrective control actions. This increases the chances of arresting or mitigating the impact of cascading failures; (2) the SE can be executed multiple times within time allowance. Therefore, the robustness of SE can be enhanced by repeating the execution of the SE with adaptive adjustments, including removing bad data and/or adjusting different initial conditions to compute a better estimate within the same time as a traditional state estimator’s single estimate. There are other benefits with the sub-second SE, such as that the PSE results can potentially be used in local and/or wide-area automatic corrective control actions that are currently dependent on raw measurements to minimize the impact of bad measurements, and provides opportunities to enhance the power grid reliability and efficiency. PSE also can enable other advanced tools that rely on SE outputs and could be used to further improve operators’ actions and automated controls to mitigate effects of severe events on the grid. The power grid continues to grow and the number of measurements is increasing at an accelerated rate due to the variety of smart grid devices being introduced. A parallel state estimation implementation will have better performance than traditional, sequential state estimation by utilizing the power of high performance computing (HPC). This increased performance positions parallel state estimators as valuable tools for operating the increasingly more complex power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Resiliency using Hydro-based Microgrids During Wildfires

The primary objective of this project is to assess the techno-economic viability of hydropower resources with supplementary investments, including microgrid controllers, storage solutions, load banks, additional generation like diesel generators, communication links, and transmission infrastructure. The aim is to enable these systems to operate autonomously (in islanded mode) and ensure grid resiliency during and after wildfire events. The project seeks to establish a comprehensive framework for setting up hydropower-based microgrids, from risk estimation to final investment decisions. These microgrids can provide critical support during emergencies and offer additional grid stability and revenue opportunities during regular operations and other system contingencies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2013

Impact of the MLC on the MRI field distortion of a prototype MRI-linac

Purpose: To cope with intrafraction tumor motion, integrated MRI-linac systems for real-time image guidance are currently under development. The multileaf collimator (MLC) is a key component in every state-of-the-art radiotherapy treatment system, allowing for accurate field shaping and tumor tracking. This work quantifies the magnetic impact of a widely used MLC on the MRI field homogeneity for such a modality.Methods: The finite element method was employed to model a MRI-linac assembly comprised of a 1.0 T split-bore MRI magnet and the key ferromagnetic components of a Varian Millennium 120 MLC, namely, the leaves and motors. Full 3D magnetic field maps of the system were generated. From these field maps, the peak-to-peak distortion within the MRI imaging volume was evaluated over a 30 cm diameter sphere volume (DSV) around the isocenter and compared to a maximum preshim inhomogeneity of 300 μT. Five parametric studies were performed: (1) The source-to-isocenter distance (SID) was varied from 100 to 200 cm, to span the range of a compact system to that with lower magnetic coupling. (2) The MLC model was changed from leaves only to leaves with motors, to determine the contribution to the total distortion caused by MLC leaves and motors separately. (3) The system was configured in the inline or perpendicular orientation, i.e., the linac treatment beam was oriented parallel or perpendicular to the magnetic field direction. (4) The treatment field size was varied from 0 × 0 to 20×20 cm{sup 2}, to span the range of clinical treatment fields. (5) The coil currents were scaled linearly to produce magnetic field strengths B{sub 0} of 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 T, to estimate how the MLC impact changes with B{sub 0}.Results: (1) The MLC-induced MRI field distortion fell continuously with increasing SID. (2) MLC leaves and motors were found to contribute to the distortion in approximately equal measure. (3) Due to faster falloff of the fringe field, the field distortion was generally smaller in the perpendicular beam orientation. The peak-to-peak DSV distortion was below 300 μT at SID≥130 cm (perpendicular) and SID≥140 cm (inline) for the 1.0 T design. (4) The simulation of different treatment fields was identified to cause dynamic changes in the field distribution. However, the estimated residual distortion was below 1.2 mm geometric distortion at SID≥120 cm (perpendicular) and SID≥130 cm (inline) for a 10 mT/m frequency-encoding gradient. (5) Due to magnetic saturation of the MLC materials, the field distortion remained constant at B{sub 0}>1.0 T.Conclusions: This work shows that the MRI field distortions caused by the MLC cannot be ignored and must be thoroughly investigated for any MRI-linac system. The numeric distortion values obtained for our 1.0 T magnet may vary for other magnet designs with substantially different fringe fields, however the concept of modest increases in the SID to reduce the distortion to a shimmable level is generally applicable.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Boil-off losses along LH2 pathway

Losses along the LH 2 pathway are intrinsic to the utilization of a cryogenic fluid. They occur when the molecule is transferred between 2 vessels (liquefaction plant to trailer, trailer to station storage, station storage to pump or compressor, then fuel cell electric vehicles …) and when the fluid is warmed up due to heat transfer with the environment. Those losses can be estimated with good accuracy using thermodynamic models based on conservation of mass and energy, providing the thermodynamic states are correctly described. Indeed, the fluid undergoes various changes as it moves along the entire pathway (2 phase transition, super-heated warming, non-uniform temperature distributions across the saturation film) and accurate equations of state and 2 phase behavior implementations are essential. The balances of mass and energy during the various dynamics processes then enable to quantify the boil-off losses. In this work, a MATLAB code previously developed by NASA to simulate rocket loading is used as the basis for the LH 2 transfer model. This code implements complex physical phenomena such as the competition between condensation and evaporation and the convection vs. conduction heat transfer as a function of the relative temperatures on both sides of the saturated film. The original code was modified to consider real gas equations of state, and some semi-empirical relationships, such as between the heat of vaporization and the critical temperature, were also replaced by a REFPROP equivalent expression, assumed to be more accurate. Non-constant liquid temperature equations were added to simulate sub-cooled conditions. It is shown that although trailer depressurization and transfer losses from the receiving vessel during a LH 2 delivery may constitute the largest sources of losses, those can be greatly reduced and even eliminated if CFR/DOT regulations are properly applied and if no-vent fill methods are implemented, particularly for a stationary LH2 storage operating at reasonably low pressure (45 psia or so). As such, it is expected that the only remaining boil-off losses for a refueling station would come from the LH 2 pump (utilization and idling), pump vessel cool down/warm up, and environment heat transfer. Based on experimental data measured at LLNL on the Linde 875 bar LH 2 cryo-pump and results from the model, and extrapolating for refueling stations of various sizes, it can be shown that boil-off losses can vary from 15% of delivered LH 2 for a 100 kg/day, 5% at 400 kg/day, and down to less than 2% for stations above 1,800 kg/day (for a system similar to the one at LLNL). Less boil-off is to be expected for LH 2 pumps dispensing at 350 bar, so that less than 0.7% can be expected above 1,800 kg/day station capacities. At last, boil-off recovery solutions are briefly analyzed, including compressors, cryo-coolers and stationary fuel cell. Their economic value is strongly related to the costs of H2 and of the electricity needed to perform the recovery, on top of the initial capital expenditures. Effective boil-off could be reduced to 0.6-1% for a 2,000 kg/day station if adequate recovery solutions are used.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Towards a Consolidated Approach for the Assessment of Evaluation Models of Nuclear Power Reactors

The STARS project at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) has adopted the TRACE thermal-hydraulic (T-H) code for best-estimate system transient simulations of the Swiss Light Water Reactors (LWRs). For analyses involving interactions between system and core, a coupling of TRACE with the SIMULATE-3K (S3K) LWR core simulator has also been developed. In this configuration, the TRACE code and associated nuclear power reactor simulation models play a central role to achieve a comprehensive safety analysis capability. Thus, efforts have now been undertaken to consolidate the validation strategy by implementing a more rigorous and structured assessment approach for TRACE applications involving either only system T-H evaluations or requiring interfaces to e.g. detailed core or fuel behavior models. The first part of this paper presents the preliminary concepts of this validation strategy. The principle is to systematically track the evolution of a given set of predicted physical Quantities of Interest (QoIs) over a multidimensional parametric space where each of the dimensions represent the evolution of specific analysis aspects, including e.g. code version, transient specific simulation methodology and model "nodalisation". If properly set up, such environment should provide code developers and code users with persistent (less affected by user effect) and quantified information (sensitivity of QoIs) on the applicability of a simulation scheme (codes, input models, methodology) for steady state and transient analysis of full LWR systems. Through this, for each given transient/accident, critical paths of the validation process can be identified that could then translate into defining reference schemes to be applied for downstream predictive simulations. In order to illustrate this approach, the second part of this paper presents a first application of this validation strategy to an inadvertent blowdown event that occurred in a Swiss BWR/6. The transient was initiated by the spurious actuation of the Automatic Depressurization System (ADS). The validation approach progresses through a number of dimensions here: First, the same BWR system simulation model is assessed for different versions of the TRACE code, up to the most recent one. The second dimension is the "nodalisation" dimension, where changes to the input model are assessed. The third dimension is the "methodology" dimension. In this case imposed power and an updated TRACE core model are investigated. For each step in each validation dimension, a common set of QoIs are investigated. For the steady-state results, these include fuel temperatures distributions. For the transient part of the present study, the evaluated QoIs include the system pressure evolution and water carry-over into the steam line.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Liquefaction of Forest Biomass to "Drop-in" Hydrocarbon Biofuels

The overall goal of the project was to demonstrate solvent liquefaction as a viable path to stable intermediates for subsequent upgrading to fuel blendstocks. Iowa State University (ISU) utilized technology developed by Chevron to produce “green crude” via continuous biomass liquefaction to bio-oil without catalyst or reducing gas, then upgraded the crude to drop-in hydrocarbon liquid transportation fuels. Original benchmarks for the project included conversion of biomass to bio-oil at a yield of 50% or more, produce bio-oil with oxygen content below 20 wt%, and recycle a portion of the bio-oil product for use as solvent, displacing initial hydrocarbon solvent. Initial testing and technology development was completed by Chevron using a custom Small Continuous Liquefaction Unit (SCLU) operated in “once-through” mode. In this system, liquid product and solid residual/char was collected together and required both off-line solids removal and product separation. This unit was disassembled and major components incorporated into a redesigned solvent liquefaction system at ISU capable of processing biomass at rates up to 1 kg/h. Online, continuous solids separation and bio-oil recovery/separation systems were successfully implemented. Online solids removal using an acetone injection to aid in separation achieved over 99% solids removal efficiency, and acetone recovery of greater than 97% was achieved. The gas stripping system developed for the separation of medium wood oil (MWO) for the recycle stream from the heavy wood oil (HWO) product stream was also successful in recovering approximately 93 wt% of the initial solvent from the biomass-derived products. Due to the generation of fine particulate and the high molecular weight of the HWO which both negatively affect the ability to separate the product oil, solvent recycle was not fully implemented in the system. The biomass used in this project is loblolly pine forest residue. The solvent was a blend of two hydrocarbon liquids. The majority of the solvent was comprised of commercially available naphthalene-depleted heavy aromatic solvent. The hydrogen donor solvent was a proprietary cut of light cycle oil (LCO) that was hydrotreated. As much as 25 wt% of the solvent mixture was comprised of the hydrotreated LCO. Higher blend ratios were limited by the economics of providing hydrogen to the process in this manner. Two cases were evaluated for technical feasibility on the SCLU. These are 1. Simulated phenolic solvent recycle and 2. Hydrocarbon-rich solvent processing. The simulated phenolic solvent recycle case was based on an idealistic solvent mixture where only 5% makeup or hydrogen donor solvent entered the system. The resulting solvent mixture at steady state was estimated to be 75 wt% depleted hydrogen donor, 20 wt% biomass derived phenolic monomers, and 5 wt% HLCO. This case resulted in the highest bio-oil organic yield observed in the project of 66.7 wt% on a solvent-less, dry biomass basis and relatively low oxygen content of 12%. Additionally, these conditions deconstructed the biomass so well, that extremely fine particulate was generated such that 5 micron barrier filters were unable to remove the material. Offline addition of acetone, centrifugation and acetone removal were required in order to remove the particulate prior to fractionation with the stripping column. The resulting HWO had a high molecular weight and was therefore very viscous in nature, remaining solid at room temperature. Additionally, the column was unable to sustainably strip enough MWO to close the recycle loop balance while maintaining flowability of product oil exiting the column. It was determined that additional HLCO would be required at the front of the process to decrease product viscosity both by dilution and additional hydrogen transfer into the HWO product oil. The hydrocarbon rich mixture was the preferred mixture for a majority of the project and featured a 25% donor or HLCO content and 75% depleted hydrogen donor mix. A series of three tests were conducted using this mixture and serve as the basis for a paper detailing the system. While the online acetone injection system for high pressure solids removal was demonstrated early on using this mixture, difficulty controlling process flows led to the use of an atmospheric stirred tank filtration system. At these high donor solvent levels, the product stream easily partitioned with sufficient MWO to close the recycle loop balance. Additionally, this mixture produced HWO product oil at just over 55% yield, <5% oxygen content, and a reasonable viscosity at room temperature. A 56 hour campaign was conducted with the ISU pilot to produce a large enough batch of HWO product oil to conduct upgrading experiments at Chevron’s Richmond, CA facility. Benchtop hydrotreating units were used to conduct long-duration hydrogenation/hydrogenolysis reactions in order to provide yield data and help validate assumptions made in the TEA model. Resulting products featured an oxygen content of <1%, near the detectability limit. Hydrocracking simulations were also performed, and a distribution of heavy wood oil to refinery products was determined. These distributions are based on a database of commercial and pilot plant operation used by Chevron to estimate product yield from novel inputs based on the input physical and chemical characteristics. While multi-week benchtop hydrotreating tests were successfully conducted without fouling, analysis and testing of the heavy wood oil suggest it may be better suited for hydrocracking. Metals content in the heavy wood oil would likely create catalyst fouling over time and reduce lifetime of hydrotreating catalysts. Yields and product partitioning were also more favorable from hydrocracking compared to those from hydrotreating.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Venus tectonic styles and crustal differentiation

Two of the most important constraints are known from Pioneer Venus data: the lack of a system of spreading rises, indicating distributed deformation rather than plate tectonics; and the high gravity/topography ratio, indicating the absence of an asthenosphere. In addition, the high depth/diameter ratios of craters on Venus indicate that Venus probably has no more crust than Earth. The problems of the character of tectonics and crustal formation and recycling are closely coupled. Venus appears to lack a recycling mechanism as effective as subduction, but may also have a low rate of crustal differentiation because of a mantle convection pattern that is more distributed, less concentrated, than Earth's. Distributed convection, coupled with the nonlinear dependence of volcanism on heat flow, would lead to much less magmatism, despite only moderately less heat flow, compared to Earth. The plausible reason for this difference in convective style is the absence of water in the upper mantle of Venus. We have applied finite element modeling to problems of the interaction of mantle convection and crust on Venus. The main emphasis has been on the tectonic evolution of Ishtar Terra, as the consequence of convergent mantle flow. The early stage evolution is primarily mechanical, with crust being piled up on the down-stream side. Then the downflow migrates away from the center. In the later stages, after more than 100 m.y., thermal effects develop due to the insulating influence of the thickened crust. An important feature of this modeling is the entrainment of some crustal material in downflows. An important general theme in both convergent and divergent flows is that of mixing vs. stratification. Models of multicomponent solid-state flow obtain that lower-density crustal material can be entrained and recycled, provided that the ration of low-density to high-density material is small enough (as in subducted slabs on Earth). The same considerations should apply in upflows; a small percent of partial melt may be carried along with its matrix and never escape to the surface. Models that assume melt automatically rising to the crust and no entrainment or other mechanism of recycling lower-density material obtain oscillatory behavior, because it takes a long time for heat to build up enough to overcome a Mg-rich low-density residuum. However, these models develop much thicker crust than consistent with estimates from crater depth/diameter ratios.

Kaula, W. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Oak Ridge National Laboratory EAGLE-I TM : Modeling Electric Utility County Customers for Situational Awareness

During natural hazard events (hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and recent man-made events (e.g., cyber attacks), the exchange of near real-time, spatially refined data within the response community is critical. The EAGLE-I$^{TM}$ platform is one tool that facilitates this data for decision makers within the energy sector. While much information can be collected and integrated into the system directly, other pertinent data must be augmented by other derived data products to enhance the information and allow for a consistent evaluation of on-the-ground conditions. One such data set that requires the addition of other derived data is the electric utility customer outage data that is aggregated to the county level within the EAGLE-I application. Without a county customer data set, outages can only be compared on total counts, which gives greater importance to higher population outages. Including an electric utility customer data set at the county level allows for these outage counts to be converted to percent outages and brings a consistent classification of outages and equal importance to all outages. To achieve this, several available data sets were combined and spatial disaggregation techniques were employed to model customer estimates at the county scale. This paper presents the approach to produce this data for the United States and lessons learned from working with these disparate data sets. Data validation is provided, where possible, and limitations of the model and possible improvements are discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Software Testbed for Developing and Evaluating Integrated Autonomous Subsystems

To implement fault tolerant autonomy in future space systems, it will be necessary to integrate planning, adaptive control, and state estimation subsystems. However, integrating these subsystems is difficult, time-consuming, and error-prone. This paper describes Intelliface/ADAPT, a software testbed that helps researchers develop and test alternative strategies for integrating planning, execution, and diagnosis subsystems more quickly and easily. The testbed's architecture, graphical data displays, and implementations of the integrated subsystems support easy plug and play of alternate components to support research and development in fault-tolerant control of autonomous vehicles and operations support systems. Intelliface/ADAPT controls NASA's Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT), which comprises batteries, electrical loads (fans, pumps, and lights), relays, circuit breakers, invertors, and sensors. During plan execution, an experimentor can inject faults into the ADAPT testbed by tripping circuit breakers, changing fan speed settings, and closing valves to restrict fluid flow. The diagnostic subsystem, based on NASA's Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE), detects and isolates these faults to determine the new state of the plant, ADAPT. Intelliface/ADAPT then updates its model of the ADAPT system's resources and determines whether the current plan can be executed using the reduced resources. If not, the planning subsystem generates a new plan that reschedules tasks, reconfigures ADAPT, and reassigns the use of ADAPT resources as needed to work around the fault. The resource model, planning domain model, and planning goals are expressed using NASA's Action Notation Modeling Language (ANML). Parts of the ANML model are generated automatically, and other parts are constructed by hand using the Planning Model Integrated Development Environment, a visual Eclipse-based IDE that accelerates ANML model development. Because native ANML planners are currently under development and not yet sufficiently capable, the ANML model is translated into the New Domain Definition Language (NDDL) and sent to NASA's EUROPA planning system for plan generation. The adaptive controller executes the new plan, using augmented, hierarchical finite state machines to select and sequence actions based on the state of the ADAPT system. Real-time sensor data, commands, and plans are displayed in information-dense arrays of timelines and graphs that zoom and scroll in unison. A dynamic schematic display uses color to show the real-time fault state and utilization of the system components and resources. An execution manager coordinates the activities of the other subsystems. The subsystems are integrated using the Internet Communications Engine (ICE). an object-oriented toolkit for building distributed applications.

Testbed↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probing triaxial deformation of atomic nuclei in high-energy heavy ion collisions

Most atomic nuclei are deformed with a quadrupole shape described by its overall strength β 2 and triaxiality γ. The deformation can be accessed in high-energy heavy ion collisions by measuring the collective flow response of the produced quark-gluon plasma to the eccentricity ε 2 and the density gradient d ⊥ in the initial state. Using an analytical estimate and a Glauber model, I show that the variances $\langleε^{2}_{2}\rangle$ or $\langle$(δd ⊥ /d ⊥ ) 2 $\rangle$ and skewnesses $\langleε^{2}_{2}δd_{⊥}/d_{⊥}\rangle$ or $\langle(δd_{⊥}/d_{⊥})^{3}\rangle$ have a simple analytical form of a'+b'β$^{2}_{2}$ and a'+[b'+c' cos(3γ)]β$^{3}_{2}$, respectively. From these, I constructed several normalized skewnesses to isolate the γ dependence from that of β 2 and show that the correlations between a normalized skewness and a variance can constrain simultaneously β 2 and γ. Assuming a linear relation with elliptic flow v 2 and mean-transverse momentum [p T ] of final-state particles, v 2 ∝ ε 2 and δ [p T ] / [p T ] ∝ δd ⊥ /d ⊥ , similar conclusions are also expected for the variances and skewnesses of v 2 and [p T ], i.e., a + bβ$^{2}_{2}$ for $\langle v^{2}_{2}\rangle$ and $\langle(δ[p_{T}] / [p_{T}])^{2}\rangle$ and a + [b + c cos (3γ)] β$^{3}_{2}$ for $\langle v^{2}_{2}δ [p_{T}] / [p_{T}]\rangle$ or $\langle(δ[p_{T}] / [p_{T}])^{3}\rangle$. My findings motivate a dedicated system scan of high-energy heavy ion collisions at RHIC and LHC to measure triaxiality of atomic nuclei: one first determines the coefficients b and c by collisions of isobaric near prolate nuclei, cos (3γ) ≈ 1, and near oblate nuclei, cos (3γ) ≈ –1 , with known β 2 values, followed by collisions of other species of interest with similar mass number. The (β 2 , γ) values for this species can be inferred directly from the measured variance and skewness observables from these collisions. Finally, the results demonstrate the unique opportunities offered by high-energy collisions as a tool to perform interdisciplinary nuclear physics studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2014

The zero-multipole summation method for estimating electrostatic interactions in molecular dynamics: Analysis of the accuracy and application to liquid systems

In the preceding paper [I. Fukuda, J. Chem. Phys. 139, 174107 (2013)], the zero-multipole (ZM) summation method was proposed for efficiently evaluating the electrostatic Coulombic interactions of a classical point charge system. The summation takes a simple pairwise form, but prevents the electrically non-neutral multipole states that may artificially be generated by a simple cutoff truncation, which often causes large energetic noises and significant artifacts. The purpose of this paper is to judge the ability of the ZM method by investigating the accuracy, parameter dependencies, and stability in applications to liquid systems. To conduct this, first, the energy-functional error was divided into three terms and each term was analyzed by a theoretical error-bound estimation. This estimation gave us a clear basis of the discussions on the numerical investigations. It also gave a new viewpoint between the excess energy error and the damping effect by the damping parameter. Second, with the aid of these analyses, the ZM method was evaluated based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of two fundamental liquid systems, a molten sodium-chlorine ion system and a pure water molecule system. In the ion system, the energy accuracy, compared with the Ewald summation, was better for a larger value of multipole moment l currently induced until l ≲ 3 on average. This accuracy improvement with increasing l is due to the enhancement of the excess-energy accuracy. However, this improvement is wholly effective in the total accuracy if the theoretical moment l is smaller than or equal to a system intrinsic moment L. The simulation results thus indicate L ∼ 3 in this system, and we observed less accuracy in l = 4. We demonstrated the origins of parameter dependencies appearing in the crossing behavior and the oscillations of the energy error curves. With raising the moment l we observed, smaller values of the damping parameter provided more accurate results and smoother behaviors with respect to cutoff length were obtained. These features can be explained, on the basis of the theoretical error analyses, such that the excess energy accuracy is improved with increasing l and that the total accuracy improvement within l ⩽ L is facilitated by a small damping parameter. Although the accuracy was fundamentally similar to the ion system, the bulk water system exhibited distinguishable quantitative behaviors. A smaller damping parameter was effective in all the practical cutoff distance, and this fact can be interpreted by the reduction of the excess subset. A lower moment was advantageous in the energy accuracy, where l = 1 was slightly superior to l = 2 in this system. However, the method with l = 2 (viz., the zero-quadrupole sum) gave accurate results for the radial distribution function. We confirmed the stability in the numerical integration for MD simulations employing the ZM scheme. This result is supported by the sufficient smoothness of the energy function. Along with the smoothness, the pairwise feature and the allowance of the atom-based cutoff mode on the energy formula lead to the exact zero total-force, ensuring the total-momentum conservations for typical MD equations of motion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Seismic Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Fracture Generation During EGS Resource Development

This DOE GTO funded project was a collaborative effort between Array Information Technology and the University of California at Berkeley. The project goal is to improve technology to assess in-situ stress magnitude and orientation, kinematic fracture parameters, rupture size, rupture orientation as well as temporal changes and volumetric distribution of the injected fluid during Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) resource development. The project leveraged high-frequency seismic data recorded by the LBNL 34-station permanent geophone network and seismic broadband data recorded by a temporary 33-station seismometer network that operated in The Geysers during the injection phase of the DOE GTO funded EGS demonstration project at the well Prati-32. The operation of the broadband network with high station density and good azimuthal coverage to monitor the injection phase produced an unprecedented dataset that is typically unavailable for EGS operations. The two datasets offer the advantages of studying the parameters under investigation over a broader frequency band and the higher sensitivity of the broadband seismometers resulted in a richer dataset with a lower magnitude of completeness. Moment tensor (MT) inversion have been employed to develop a catalog of earthquake source solutions including moment tensor and finite source rupture area. This resulted in a 168-event waveform-based seismic moment tensor catalog for events 0.7≤Mw≤3.9 based on a semi-automated moment tensor analysis technique. The MT solutions were used for in-situ stress estimation during the EGS injection phases. We found an approximate 15-degree counterclockwise rotation of the least compressive stress sigma-3, and a rotation of the maximum compressive stress sigma-1 toward the vertical as the injected volume of water increased. We developed a rupture-area magnitude scaling relationship of The Geysers earthquakes obtained from finite-source inversion for fault slip that reveals a very high correlation to published results. Based on the rupture area-magnitude relationship we mapped Mw from the LBNL earthquake catalog to estimate the activated fracture area, its location and orientation within the injection volume of Prati-32. The double-difference Wadati (DDW) technique was applied to high-accuracy P- and S-wave differential travel times derived from waveform cross correlation to image fluid saturation in the subsurface based on Vp/Vs-ratio. The recently developed technique has been applied to estimate temporal changes of fluid distribution in fault zones and in volcanic regions but not yet in engineered geo-reservoirs. The improvement of the technology includes high-resolution waveform cross correlation applied to the high-quality datasets with lower magnitude of completeness resulting in a higher number of recorded events. The improvement allowed to estimate both, the spatial and temporal distribution of injected fluids and the state of the injected fluid during reservoir stimulation. Results of the DDW analysis revealed the development of an injection-derived steam plume during the early injection phase, particularly in the northern part of the Prati-32 study area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗