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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Defining the 50-Year Module: Luck, Design, or Both?

Poster presenting a new Duramat project that will develop a science-based definition of a "50-year solar panel" by combining reliability data, climate risks, design choices, and long-term cost analysis. The work aims to clarify what is needed to enable longer-lasting, high-value solar systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exclusive π 0 p electroproduction off protons in the resonance region at photon virtualities 0.4 GeV 2 ≤ Q 2 ≤ 1 GeV 2

The limited electroproduction process e p → e ' p ' π 0 was measured in the range of photon virtualities Q 2 = 0.4 – 1.0 GeV 2 and the invariant mass range of the p π 0 system of W = 1.1 – 1.8 GeV. These kinematics are covered in exclusive π 0 electroproduction off the proton with nearly complete angular coverage in the p π 0 center-of-mass system and with high statistical accuracy. Nearly 36 000 cross-section points were measured, and the structure functions σ T + ε σ L , σ L T , and σ T T , were extracted via fitting the φ π 0 dependence of the cross section. A Legendre polynomial expansion analysis demonstrates the sensitivity of our data to high-lying N * and Δ * resonances with M > 1.6 GeV. As part of a broad effort to determine the electrocouplings of the N * and Δ * resonances using both single- and double-pion electroproduction, this dataset is key for the reliable extraction of the high-lying resonance electrocouplings from the combined isospin analysis of the N π and π + π - p channels.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Assisted extraction of the energy level spacings and lever arms in direct current bias measurements of one-dimensional quantum wires, using an image recognition routine

A multiplexer technique is used to individually measure an array of 256 split gates on a single GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructure. This results in the generation of large volumes of data, which requires the development of automated data analysis routines. An algorithm is developed to find the spacing between discrete energy levels, which form due to transverse confinement from the split gate. The lever arm, which relates split gate voltage to energy, is also found from the measured data. This reduces the time spent on the analysis. Comparison with estimates obtained visually shows that the algorithm returns reliable results for subband spacing of split gates measured at 1.4 K. The routine is also used to assess direct current bias spectroscopy measurements at lower temperatures (50 mK). This technique is versatile and can be extended to other types of measurements. For example, it is used to extract the magnetic field at which Zeeman-split 1D subbands cross one another.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

A new theory for X-ray diffraction

By considering the scattering distributed throughout space, there is an intensity enhancement at the Bragg angle even when the Bragg condition is not satisfied. This leads to an alternative explanation for the diffraction from powders and small crystals. This article proposes a new theory of X-ray scattering that has particular relevance to powder diffraction. The underlying concept of this theory is that the scattering from a crystal or crystallite is distributed throughout space: this leads to the effect that enhanced scatter can be observed at the ‘Bragg position’ even if the ‘Bragg condition’ is not satisfied. The scatter from a single crystal or crystallite, in any fixed orientation, has the fascinating property of contributing simultaneously to many ‘Bragg positions’. It also explains why diffraction peaks are obtained from samples with very few crystallites, which cannot be explained with the conventional theory. The intensity ratios for an Si powder sample are predicted with greater accuracy and the temperature factors are more realistic. Another consequence is that this new theory predicts a reliability in the intensity measurements which agrees much more closely with experimental observations compared to conventional theory that is based on ‘Bragg-type’ scatter. The role of dynamical effects (extinction etc.) is discussed and how they are suppressed with diffuse scattering. An alternative explanation for the Lorentz factor is presented that is more general and based on the capture volume in diffraction space. This theory, when applied to the scattering from powders, will evaluate the full scattering profile, including peak widths and the ‘background’. The theory should provide an increased understanding of the reliability of powder diffraction measurements, and may also have wider implications for the analysis of powder diffraction data, by increasing the accuracy of intensities predicted from structural models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V

The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivity analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

NRC Reactor Operating Experience Analysis and Trend Summary: 2024 Update

This report presents a summary of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) reactor operating experience analyses with data through 2024 as well as the reliability and frequency trends identified in the 2024 update reports for the component performance studies, loss-of-offsite power analysis, initiating events analysis, and system studies provided on the NRC Reactor Operating Experience Results and Databases website (https://nrcoe.inl.gov/).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting kinetics of polymorphic transformations from structure mapping and coordination analysis

To extend materials design and discovery into the space of metastable polymorphs, rapid and reliable assessment of transformation kinetics to lower energy structures is essential. Herein we focus on diffusionless polymorphic transformations and investigate routes to assess their kinetics using solely crystallographic arguments. As part of this investigation we developed a general algorithm to map crystal structures onto each other, and ascertain the low-energy (fast-kinetics) transformation pathways between them. Pathways with minimal dissociation of chemical bonds, along which the number of bonds (in ionic systems the first-shell coordination) does not decrease below that in the end structures, are shown to always be the fast-kinetics pathways. These findings enable the rapid assessment of the kinetics of polymorphic transformation and the identification of long-lived metastable structures. In conclusion, the utility is demonstrated on a number of transformations including those between high-pressure SnO 2 phases, which lack a detailed atomic-level understanding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Geothermal-Enabled Zero Energy Electric Community: An Integrated System Design Study

In northern climates, developing a zero-energy community is increasingly costly. Building loads are higher, thanks to the colder weather, and solar PV is both less effective, due to lower solar incidence, and misalignment with the buildings' energy needs (summer production, winter demands). We present a novel application for geothermal energy production in support of a zero-energy community, combining appropriate energy efficiency (demand design), geothermal production (supply design), and asset dispatch as an integrated technoeconomic package. This poster presents the process used to explore this system integration challenge, initial results, and discusses some of the technical opportunities for increasing the community-scale adoption of geothermal as an electric and thermal resource. Results indicate that under certain conditions, community-scale geothermal resources are quite competitive with today's grid tariffs and with PV, showing an LCOE within $0.01/kWh before consideration of important grid modernization factors such as resiliency and reliability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of the U.S. Electric Distribution System in Serving Data Center and Other Large Loads

The rapid expansion of data centers in the United States is reshaping how the electric distribution system must plan for and accommodate large load interconnections. This report evaluates the role of the distribution grid in serving these loads, from small edge facilities to hyperscale campuses. Using national datasets, utility filings, and industry studies, we assess demand growth, reliability requirements, interconnection thresholds, and infrastructure needs at substations and feeders. The analysis highlights the mismatch between fast data center development timelines and slower utility planning and construction cycles, as well as strategies such as phased energization, on-site generation, hosting capacity maps, and structured interconnection frameworks. While focused on data centers, the insights also apply to other high-density loads such as advanced manufacturing, hydrogen production, and electrified transportation. The report concludes with approaches to align planning processes, transparency tools, and regulatory frameworks so utilities can manage new large loads in ways that support a reliable and resilient grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of Shutdown Dose Rate in Fusion Energy Systems Using Hybrid Monte Carlo/Deterministic Techniques - Paper 138

Accurate assessments of shutdown dose rate (SDDR) are critical to support operation, maintenance, and waste disposal planning and to guide possible design changes of critical components in fusion energy systems. An SDDR calculation involves three steps: 1. a neutron transport calculation to determine the space and energy neutron flux distributions, 2. an activation calculation for computing the photon source distribution, and 3. a photon transport calculation for the estimation of the final SDDR. A companion paper describes the challenges of SDDR computations in fusion energy systems and the status of the techniques that are currently being used in SDDR analysis. Of these techniques, the rigorous 2-step (R2S) computational system entails Monte Carlo (MC) neutron and photon transport calculations coupled with a comprehensive activation step using a dedicated inventory code and library. The use of global MC variance reduction techniques was suggested for accelerating the SDDR MC neutron transport calculation. These techniques, which attempt to calculate MC tallies with nearly uniform relative uncertainties in both the low-flux space-energy regions and the high-flux space-energy regions, do not preferentially focus the MC computational efforts toward space-energy regions of high importance to the final decay dose. The ability of these approaches to accurately predict SDDR is inhibited by their prohibitive computational costs, which will be on the order of thousands of processor-years for full-scale modeling of an entire fusion plant. The companion paper describes the theoretical background of the Multi-Step Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (MS-CADIS) method, which has been proposed to speed up SDDR MC neutron calculations. The MS-CADIS method uses the CADIS method, which has been successfully used for more than a decade in shielding calculations, but focuses on multistep shielding calculations such as SDDR analyses. The companion paper also describes a new method for calculating the uncertainties in SDDR due to uncertainties in the MC neutron calculation. This new method of uncertainty propagation uses the MS-CADIS neutron adjoint source to propagate the uncertainties in the neutron fluxes to the SDDR. This paper describes the application of the MS-CADIS method for speeding up the SDDR MC calculations and for calculating the SDDR uncertainty due to the neutron flux uncertainties. A new metric for assessing the reliability of SDDR calculations was also suggested and used in this analysis. The ITER benchmark problem was used in this analysis. The problem resembles the configuration and geometrical arrangement of an upper port plug in ITER. The analysis compared the efficiency of the MS-CADIS method to the traditional approach of using global MC variance reduction techniques for speeding up SDDR MC neutron calculation. The application of the MS-CADIS method to SDDR calculations in fusion energy systems was tested using the ITER benchmark problem. Compared to the standard FW-CADIS method, the increase in the efficiency of the SDDR neutron MC calculation due to the use of the MS-CADIS method was between 18% and 69%. The MS-CADIS method also increases the fraction of non-zero-scoring mesh tally elements in the space-energy regions of high importance to the final SDDR. Implementation of the MS-CADIS method in the SCALE and the ADVANTG code systems is currently under way. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

System Health and Status Reporting is Used to Improve Infrastructure Systems at the Hanford Site - 20449

Reliable physical infrastructure systems are vital to completing the clean-up mission and the start-up and commissioning of new nuclear waste processing facilities at the Hanford Site. Key infrastructure systems at Hanford include water, sewer, and electrical utilities, roads, telecommunications/network systems, and fire systems. All of the infrastructure systems are non-nuclear, General Service systems that are being maintained under formal engineering configuration control and none are specifically credited in any documented safety analysis (DSA). Starting in calendar year 2017, the Hanford Site's infrastructure and services contractor started producing system health and status reports for a total of 15 critical infrastructure systems as means to get a better understanding of each system's health and how it could be improved to ensure better and more reliable service delivery. As the reporting, tracking, and use of the metrics has matured, the number of systems for which reports are being developed has been expanded to a total of 23. Each of the critical infrastructure systems are assigned primary and alternate design authorities that complete qualifications on each assigned system. The design authorities actively manage and maintain configuration control on each of their systems and track metrics associated with availability, maintenance (corrective and preventive), and configuration of the technical baseline. The metrics are based on the principles established in Chapter V of DOE O 420.1C, Facility Safety, [1] and have been tailored as appropriate to each of the key infrastructure systems. An overall assessment of system health is performed and documented on a routine basis (e.g., quarterly). Included in this documentation is a quantitative score for each of the metrics (i.e., availability, maintenance, configuration management) along with results of system walk-downs, description of any permanent design modifications, identification of new or emerging issues and vulnerabilities affecting the system, and an assessment by the design authority of actions necessary to improve the system health score. The overall status scores are calculated using a formula and based on a pre-determined grading scale, a color is assigned for simple presentation. The information gained from developing the reports is being used to (1) assist with making timely and better informed decisions through the use of solid technical bases that are increasing the overall reliability and capabilities of the Site's infrastructure systems as new expense and capital projects in the Reliability Projects Investment Portfolio (RPIP) are prioritized and executed; (2) feed the risk management program, and (3) integrate the technical content of Master Plans that describe the Site's needs for the system and the system's capabilities to meet those future needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

Characterization of the KOI-94 system with transit timing variation analysis: Implication for the planet-planet eclipse

The KOI-94 system is a closely packed, multi-transiting planetary system discovered by the Kepler space telescope. It is known as the first system that exhibited a rare event called a 'planet-planet eclipse (PPE)', in which two planets partially overlap with each other in their double-transit phase. In this paper, we constrain the parameters of the KOI-94 system with an analysis of the transit timing variations (TTVs). Such constraints are independent of the radial velocity (RV) analysis recently performed by Weiss and coworkers, and valuable in examining the reliability of the parameter estimate using TTVs. We numerically fit the observed TTVs of KOI-94c, KOI-94d, and KOI-94e for their masses, eccentricities, and longitudes of periastrons, and obtain the best-fit parameters including m{sub c}=9.4{sub −2.1}{sup +2.4} M{sub ⊕}, m{sub d}=52.1{sub −7.1}{sup +6.9} M{sub ⊕}, m{sub e}=13.0{sub −2.1}{sup +2.5} M{sub ⊕}, and e ≲ 0.1 for all the three planets. While these values are mostly in agreement with the RV result, the mass of KOI-94d estimated from the TTV is significantly smaller than the RV value m {sub d} = 106 ± 11 M {sub ⊕}. In addition, we find that the TTV of the outermost planet KOI-94e is not well reproduced in the current modeling. We also present analytic modeling of the PPE and derive a simple formula to reconstruct the mutual inclination of the two planets from the observed height, central time, and duration of the brightening caused by the PPE. Based on this model, the implication of the results of TTV analysis for the time of the next PPE is discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

FORMALDEHYDE DENSITOMETRY OF GALACTIC STAR-FORMING REGIONS USING THE H{sub 2}CO 3{sub 12}-3{sub 13} AND 4{sub 13}-4{sub 14} TRANSITIONS

We present Green Bank Telescope observations of the 3{sub 12}-3{sub 13} (29 GHz) and 4{sub 13}-4{sub 14} (48 GHz) transitions of the H{sub 2}CO molecule toward a sample of 23 well-studied star-forming regions. Analysis of the relative intensities of these transitions can be used to reliably measure the densities of molecular cores. Adopting kinetic temperatures from the literature, we have employed a large velocity gradient (LVG) model to derive the average hydrogen number density (n(H{sub 2})) within a 16'' beam toward each source. Densities in the range of 10{sup 5.5}-10{sup 6.5} cm{sup -3} and ortho-formaldehyde column densities per unit line width between 10{sup 13.5} and 10{sup 14.5} cm{sup -2} (km s{sup -1}){sup -1} are found for most objects, in general agreement with existing measurements. A detailed analysis of the advantages and limitations to this densitometry technique is also presented. We find that H{sub 2}CO 3{sub 12}-3{sub 13}/4{sub 13}-4{sub 14} densitometry proves to be best suited to objects with T{sub K} {approx}> 100 K, above which the H{sub 2}CO LVG models become relatively independent of kinetic temperature. This study represents the first detection of these H{sub 2}CO K-doublet transitions in all but one object in our sample. The ease with which these transitions were detected, coupled with their unique sensitivity to spatial density, makes them excellent monitors of density in molecular clouds for future experiments. We also report the detection of the 9{sub 2}-8{sub 1} A {sup -} (29 GHz) transition of CH{sub 3}OH toward six sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Multi-Fidelity Model and Co-Simulation Platform for Distribution System Transient and Dynamic Analysis—DistribuDyn

As inverter-based, distributed energy resources (DERs) and variable loads continue to proliferate across distribution systems, it is increasingly important to understand their impacts on system stability and reliability. However, most commercially available simulation tools for distribution planning primarily focus on steady-state and quasi-steady state analysis, offering limited capabilities to study transient and dynamic behaviors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗