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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

On Parallelizing Single Dynamic Simulation Using HPC Techniques and APIs of Commercial Software

Time-domain simulations are heavily used in today’s planning and operation practices to assess power system transient stability and post-transient voltage/frequency profiles following severe contingencies to comply with industry standards. Because of the increased modeling complexity, it is several times slower than real time for state-of-the-art commercial packages to complete a dynamic simulation for a large-scale model. With the growing stochastic behavior introduced by emerging technologies, power industry has seen a growing need for performing security assessment in real time. This paper presents a parallel implementation framework to speed up a single dynamic simulation by leveraging the existing stability model library in commercial tools through their application programming interfaces (APIs). Several high performance computing (HPC) techniques are explored such as parallelizing the calculation of generator current injection, identifying fast linear solvers for network solution, and parallelizing data outputs when interacting with APIs in the commercial package, TSAT. The proposed method has been tested on a WECC planning base case with detailed synchronous generator models and exhibits outstanding scalable performance with sufficient accuracy.

Diao, Ruisheng↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-424: Mitigation of Increased Surface Dose When Treating Through A Carbon Fiber Couch Top

Purpose: To study the effect of the Varian carbon fiber couch top on surface dose for patients being treated using single PA beams in the supine position and to identify simple methods for surface dose reduction. Methods: Measurements of surface dose were obtained in Solid Water phantoms using both a parallel plate ionization chamber (PTW Advanced Markus) and EBT2 Radiochromic films for both 6 and 10MV photons. All measurements were referenced to a depth considered a typical for PA Spine fields. Techniques used to reduce the surface dose included introducing an air standoff using Styrofoam sheets to suspend the phantom surface above the couch top and by adding a thin high Z scattering foil on the table surface. Surface doses were evaluated for typical field sizes, standoff heights, and various scattering materials. Comparisons were made to the surface dose obtainable when treating through a Varian Mylar covered tennis racket style couch top. Results: Dependence on typical spine field sizes was relatively minor. Dependence on air gap was much more significant. Surface doses decreased exponentially with increases in air standoff distance. Surface doses were reduced by approximately 50% for an air gap of 10cm and 40% for a 15cm air gap. Surface doses were reduced by an additional 15% by the addition of a 1mm Tin scattering foil. Conclusion: Using simple techniques, it is possible to reduce the surface dose when treating single PA fields through the Varian carbon fiber couch top. Surface doses can be reduced to levels observed when treating though transparent Mylar tops by adding about 15 cm of air gap. Further reductions are possible by adding thin scattering foils, such as Tin or Lead, on the couch surface. This is a low cost approach to reduce surface dose when using the Varian carbon fiber couch top.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds

We present a compact and self-contained review of the recently developed Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds. The formalism has been applied to consistent quantum evaluation of the flows of informational quantities, in particular, to the evaluation of Renyi and Shannon entropy flows. We start with the formulation of the standard and extended Keldysh techniques in a single world in a form convenient for our presentation. We explain the use of Keldysh contours encompassing multiple parallel worlds. In the end, we briefly summarize the concrete results obtained with the method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Laboratory-Based X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy on a Working Pouch Cell Battery at Industrially-Relevant Charging Rates

Li-ion battery (LIB) research has continuing importance for the entire range of applications from consumer products to vehicle electrification and grid stabilization. In many cases, standard electrochemical methods only provide an overall voltage or specific capacity, giving an inadequate description of parallel redox processes or chemical gradients at the particle and pack level. X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) is frequently used to augment bulk electrochemical data, as it provides element-specific changes in oxidation state and local atomic structure. Such microscopic descriptors are crucial for elucidating charge transfer and structural changes associated with bonding or site mixing, two key factors in evaluating state of charge and modes of cell failure. However, the impact of XAFS on LIB research has been significantly constrained by a logistical barrier: contemporary XAFS work is performed almost exclusively at synchrotron X-ray light sources, where beamtime is infrequent and experiment time-frames are limited. In this report we show that modern laboratory-based XAFS cannot only be applied to, e.g., characterization of ex situ LIB electrode materials, but can also be used for operando studies at industrially-relevant charging rates in a standard pouch cell preparation. Such capability enables accelerated discovery of new materials and improved operation modes for LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

OpenMDlr Dataset

Protein structure dataset created with OpenMDlr. Restraints applied to fold proteins into native-like conformations were obtained from a variety of methods; results from these different restraint sets are contained in respective subdirectories. Supplements OpenMDlr: Parallel, open-source tools for general protein structure modeling and refinement from pairwise distances (https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btac307).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stabilization of the 81-channel coherent beam combination using machine learning

We develop a rapidly converging algorithm for stabilizing a large channel-count diffractive optical coherent beam combination. An 81-beam combiner is controlled by a novel, machine-learning based, iterative method to correct the optical phases, operating on an experimentally calibrated numerical model. A neural-network is trained to detect phase errors based on interference pattern recognition of uncombined beams adjacent to the combined one. Due to the non-uniqueness of solutions in the full space of possible phases, the network is trained within a limited phase perturbation/error range. This also reduces the number of samples needed for training. Simulations have proven that the network can converge in one step for small phase perturbations. When the trained neural-network is applied to a realistic case of 360 degree full range, an iterative scheme exploits random walking at the beginning, with the accuracy of prediction on phase feedback direction, to allow the neural-network to step into the training range for fast convergence. This neural-network-based iterative method of phase detection works tens of times faster than the commonly used stochastic parallel gradient descent approach (SPGD) using a single-detector and random dither when both are tested with random phase perturbations.

Wang, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient compressive and Bayesian characterization of biphoton frequency spectra

Frequency-bin qudits constitute a promising tool for quantum information processing, but their high dimensionality can make for tedious characterization measurements. Here we introduce and compare compressive sensing and Bayesian mean estimation for recovering the spectral correlations of entangled photon pairs. Using a conventional compressive sensing algorithm, we reconstruct joint spectra with up to a 26-fold reduction in measurement time compared to the equivalent raster scan. Applying a custom Bayesian model to the same data, we then additionally realize reliable and consistent quantification of uncertainty. Finally, these efficient methods of biphoton characterization should advance our ability to use the high degree of parallelism and complexity afforded by frequency-bin encoding.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fundamentals of Monte Carlo

This is a powerpoint presentation which serves as lecture material for the Parallel Computing summer school. It goes over the fundamentals of the Monte Carlo calculation method. The material is presented according to the following outline: Introduction (background, a simple example: estimating π), Why does this even work? (The Law of Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorem), How to sample (inverse transform sampling, rejection), and An example from particle transport.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Collaborative Research: A Model of Partially Ionized Plasma Flows with Kinetic Treatment of Neutral Atoms and Nonthermal Ions

Interactions of flows of partially ionized, magnetized plasma are frequently accompanied by the presence of both thermal and non-thermal (pickup) ion components. Such interactions cannot be modeled using traditional MHD equations and require more advanced approaches to treat them. If a nonthermal component of ions is formed due to charge exchange and collisions between the thermal (core) ions and neutrals, it experiences the action of magnetic field, its distribution function is isotropized, and it soon acquires the velocity of the ambient plasma without being thermodynamically equilibrated. This situation, e. g., takes place in the outer heliosphere –- the part of interstellar space beyond the solar system whose properties are determined by the solar wind interaction with the local interstellar medium. This is also possible in laboratory, at million degrees and above, when plasma is conducting electricity far too well, which makes Ohmic heating ineffective. To attain the target temperatures one needs additional heating eventually playing a dominant role. Among such sources is a so-called neutral particle beam heating. This is a wide-spread technique (Joint European Torus and International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor experiments) based on the injection of powerful beams of neutral atoms into ohmically preheated plasma. In this project we have investigated the energy and density separation between the thermal and nonthermal components in the solar wind and interstellar plasmas. A new model has been developed in which we solve the ideal MHD equations for mixture of all ions and the kinetic Boltzmann equation to describe the transport of neutral atoms. As a separate capability, we can treat the flow of neutral atoms in a multi-component fashion, where neutral atoms born in each thermodynamically distinct region are governed by the Euler gas dynamic equations. We also describe the behavior of pickup ions either kinetically, using the Fokker--Planck equation, or as a separate fluid. Our numerical simulations have demonstrated that pickup ions play a major role in the interaction of the solar wind and (partially ionized) interstellar medium plasmas. Our teams have investigated the stability of the surface (the heliopause) that separates the solar wind from the local interstellar medium, the transport of galactic cosmic rays, the properties of the heliotail flow, and modifications to the bow wave in front of the heliopause due to charge exchange between the neutral H atoms born in the solar wind and interstellar ions. Modeling results have been validated against observational data, such as obtained by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX), and made it possible to shed light on the structure of energetic neutral atom maps created by this spacecraft.. We have also demonstrated that charge-exchange modulated heliosphere is a source of anisotropy of the multi-TeV cosmic ray flux observed in a number of Earth-bound air shower experiments. Newly developed codes are implemented within a Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS), a publicly available code being developed by our team for over 12 years. MS-FLUKSS scales well up to 160,000 computing cores and has been ported on major supercomputers in the country. Efficient parallelization and data choreography in the continuum simulation modules are provided by Chombo, an adaptive mesh refinement framework managed by Phillip Colella's team at LBNL. We have implemented in-house, hybrid (MPI+OpenMP) parallelization of the kinetic modules that solve the Boltzmann equation with a Monte Carlo method. Currently, the kinetic modules are being rewritten to take advantage of the modern CPU-GPU supercomputer architecture. The scope of the project allowed us to enhance plasma research and education in such broad, multidisciplinary field as physics of partially ionized plasma and its application to space physics and fusion science. Besides the impact on the modeling of complex physical systems, our approach to computational resource management for complex codes utilizing multiple algorithm technologies appears to be a major advance on current approaches. The development of sophisticated resource management will be essential for all future modeling efforts that incorporate a diversity of scales and physical processes. Our effort provided leadership in promoting computational science and plasma physics within the UAH and FIT campuses and, through the training of a broad spectrum of scientists and engineers, fostering new technologies across the country.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Collaborative Research: A Model of Partially Ionized Plasma Flows with Kinetic Treatment of Neutral Atoms and Nonthermal Ions

Interactions of flows of partially ionized, magnetized plasma are frequently accompanied by the presence of both thermal and non-thermal (pickup) ion components. Such interactions cannot be modeled using traditional MHD equations and require more advanced approaches to treat them. If a nonthermal component of ions is formed due to charge exchange and collisions between the thermal (core) ions and neutrals, it experiences the action of magnetic field, its distribution function is isotropized, and it soon acquires the velocity of the ambient plasma without being thermodynamically equilibrated. This situation, e. g., takes place in the outer heliosphere - the part of interstellar space beyond the solar system whose properties are determined by the solar wind interaction with the local interstellar medium. This is also possible in laboratory, at million degrees and above, when plasma is conducting electricity far too well, which makes Ohmic heating ineffective. To attain the target temperatures one needs additional heating eventually playing a dominant role. Among such sources is a so-called neutral particle beam heating. This is a wide-spread technique (Joint European Torus and International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor experiments) based on the injection of powerful beams of neutral atoms into ohmically preheated plasma. In this project we have investigated the energy and density separation between the thermal and nonthermal components in the solar wind and interstellar plasmas. A new model has been developed in which we solve the ideal MHD equations for mixture of all ions and the kinetic Boltzmann equation to describe the transport of neutral atoms. As a separate capability, we can treat the flow of neutral atoms in a multi-component fashion, where neutral atoms born in each thermodynamically distinct regions are governed by the Euler gas dynamic equations. We also describe the behavior of pickup ions either kinetically, using the Fokker–Planck equation, or as a separate fluid. Our numerical simulations have demonstrated that pickup ions play a major role in the interaction of the solar wind and (partially ionized) interstellar medium plasmas. Our teams have investigated the stability of the surface (the heliopause) that separates the solar wind from the local interstellar medium, the transport of galactic cosmic rays, the properties of the heliotail flow, and modifications to the bow wave in front of the heliopause due to charge exchange between the neutral H atoms born in the solar wind and interstellar ions. Modeling results have been validated against observational data, such as obtained by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX), and made it possible to shed light on the structure of energetic neutral atom maps created by this spacecraft.. We have also demonstrated that charge-exchange modulated heliosphere is a source of anisotropy of the multi-TeV cosmic ray flux observed in a number of Earth-bound air shower experiments. Newly developed codes are implemented within a Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS), a publicly available code being developed by our team for over 12 years. MS-FLUKSS scales well up to 160,000 computing cores and has been ported on major supercomputers in the country. Efficient parallelization and data choreography in the continuum simulation modules are provided by Chombo, an adaptive mesh refinement framework managed by Phillip Colella’s team at LBNL. We have implemented in-house, hybrid (MPI+OpenMP) parallelization of the kinetic modules that solve the Boltzmann equation with a Monte Carlo method. Currently, the kinetic modules are being rewritten to take advantage of the modern CPU-GPU supercomputer architecture. The scope of the project allowed us to enhance plasma research and education in such broad, multidis- ciplinary field as physics of partially ionized plasma and its application to space physics and fusion science. Besides the impact on the modeling of complex physical systems, our approach to computational resource management for complex codes utilizing multiple algorithm technologies appears to be a major advance on current approaches. The development of sophisticated resource management will be essential for all future modeling efforts that incorporate a diversity of scales and physical processes. Our effort provided leadership in promoting computational science and plasma physics within the UAH and FIT campuses and, through the training of a broad spectrum of scientists and engineers, foster new technologies across the country.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Yearly report for the period Jan. 2018 – Feb. 2019 IC Project: w17_faultprediction “Critical Stress in Earth”

The consequence of earthquake is usually catastrophic. Currently, we cannot determine when a fault is approaching failure due to either anthropogenic activities or tectonic movement. In an anthropogenically perturbed setting, the rate of physical changes on faults far exceeds most natural processes with currently unpredictable and unmeasurable results. In a tectonic setting we generally do not know where a fault is in the earthquake cycle beyond noting how long has passed since the last rupture, which is itself sometimes unknown. The Laboratory has therefore funded a multi million multi-year LDRD-DR program that comprises experiments, numerical modeling, and machine learning in order to develop and test a highly novel approach to probe the earthquake cycle and in particular, to detect and locate stressed faults that are approaching failure. For this program, modeling of a series of sheared granular layers undergoing stick-slip behavior using the EES-17’s Combined Finite-Discrete Element Method (FDEM) based code HOSS (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite) plays a pivotal role since numerical simulations of granular fault gouge allow for analysis of the mechanical behavior of the system at a level of spatial and temporal resolution not accessible experimentally, and also offer the possibility of identifying the most important parameters governing earthquake dynamics. The simulated data also provide very detailed stress, strain and motion information for machine learning purpose to predict earthquake. The code – HOSS – has been developed in Geophysics Group in LANL during the past ten years and is used to simulate the stick-slip behavior of granular fault gouge. One of the key feature of HOSS is that it is superior to pure finite element method and discrete element method and can provide very detailed evolvement information of granular fault gouge. Additionally, its parallel computing capability makes large scale earthquake gouge simulation possible. Taking these facts into account, and also because few other fully parallel FDEM code exists, this IC project allows LANL to stay at the forefront of earthquake gouge and granular material simulation in the world.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Report to NCSP on 2008 DANCE measurements of 233 U($\eta$,$\gamma$)

Uranium-233 plays an important role in the Th-U fuel cycle, with substantial production in the cycle. This cycle has been proposed as an alternative to the U-Pu fuel cycle due to its reduced production of transuranic elements. An accurate measurement of the 233 U($\eta$,$\gamma$) cross section is required by the National Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to complete the neutron-induced cross section data, where experimental capture cross section data are scarce and were measured decades ago. The most recent capture cross section data available in the literature were measured in 2007 at the n_TOF facility (CERN); in the 60s measurements were performed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and at LANL. Finally, as reported by ORNL, a new evaluation with a revised (renormalized) fission cross section is needed on 233 U. The challenge for this measurement lies in the difficulty of measuring the capture cross section data in the competing fission background, as the fission cross section is around one order of magnitude larger than the capture cross section for 233 U. The accuracy of a capture cross section measurement depends on discrimination between $\gamma$’s produced in capture and fission reactions, for which an experimental setup combining capture and fission detectors is needed. For the ($\eta$,$\gamma$) cross section measurement at LANSCE, this discrimination is achieved by combining the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments (DANCE), to measure $\gamma$’s from capture reactions, with a Parallel Plate Avalanche Counter (PPAC) to tag the $\gamma$’s produced by fission. This method was successfully used to measure 235 U and 239 Pu capture cross sections. In these measurements, the neutron capture cross section was determined in a large fission background well above 100 keV. As part of the NCSP nuclear data effort, we have looked at past DANCE measurements on 233 U($\eta$,$\gamma$) and evaluated whether existing data is adequate to apply this technique.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Store-operate-coherence-on-value

A system, method and computer program product for performing various store-operate instructions in a parallel computing environment that includes a plurality of processors and at least one cache memory device. A queue in the system receives, from a processor, a store-operate instruction that specifies under which condition a cache coherence operation is to be invoked. A hardware unit in the system runs the received store-operate instruction. The hardware unit evaluates whether a result of the running the received store-operate instruction satisfies the condition. The hardware unit invokes a cache coherence operation on a cache memory address associated with the received store-operate instruction if the result satisfies the condition. Otherwise, the hardware unit does not invoke the cache coherence operation on the cache memory device.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Systems and methods for photovoltaic string protection

A system and method includes a circuit for protecting a photovoltaic string. A bypass switch connects in parallel to the photovoltaic string and a hot spot protection switch connects in series with the photovoltaic string. A first control signal controls opening and closing of the bypass switch and a second control signal controls opening and closing of the hot spot protection switch. Upon detection of a hot spot condition the first control signal closes the bypass switch and after the bypass switch is closed the second control signal opens the hot spot protection switch.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of Low Power ARM Processors for Monte Carlo Particle Transport: MCNP6 on the ARM Cortex-A8 - Paper 83

In the push towards exascale computing, the limiting factors are power requirements and heat dissipation. Using current technology, the power required to drive an exascale supercomputer would near 400-MW. Clearly, future computing hardware will have to be more energy efficient in order to achieve exascale performance. Most of the current research in advanced computing architectures is in the use of standard CPUs with accelerators. However, these accelerators are not generally supported by the traditional scientific programming languages (C, C++, and Fortran) and the scientific software must be tailored specifically to take advantage of the accelerators. Large scale scientific software (hundreds-of-thousand to millions of lines of code) can not be easily ported to the computing platform du jour. The widespread use of low power ARM based processors in the mobile computing market offer a low power alternative to accelerators that are also supported by the traditional scientific programming languages and programming paradigms such as MPI and OpenMP. Computing architectures for scientific computing are often assessed using standard benchmarks such as LINPACK benchmark or using suites of mini-applications that are greatly simplified stand-ins for scientific software. Often the real applications that will deployed on the scientific supercomputers are not ported or tested until delivery of the machines. In order to evaluate the use of ARM processors for scientific computing the Monte Carlo particle transport code, MCNP version 6 was compiled on the ARM Cortex-A8 and a set of benchmark problems were used to assess performance in comparison to an Intel Xeon E5-2670 and the low power Intel Atom N270. MCNP is a continuous energy Monte Carlo particle transport code in development at Los Alamos National Laboratory since 1977. MCNP is used to transport neutrons, photon, electrons, and charged particles using continuous energy interaction data. It is commonly used in fields of nuclear power, nuclear medicine, radiation protection, and high-energy physics through-out the world. MCNP version 6 is approximately 450 thousand lines of code, written primary in Fortran90, with some C and C++. MCNP supports distributed multiprocessing using MPI and threading with OpenMP. The ARM Cortex-A8 executes MCNP6 using about twice as much power as the Intel Xeon E5-2670 and about the same amount of power as the Intel Atom N270. However, these results are encouraging for the use of low-power ARM chips in future supercomputers. The ARM Cortex-A8 is a 32-bit CPU and it's NEON general-purpose SIMD (single-instruction multiple data) engine does not support double-precision floating-point arithmetic. More recent ARM processors (ARM Cortex-A53 and Cortex-A57) support 64-bit addressing and have NEON co-processors that support double-precision floating-point arithmetic. ARM claims that the A50 series delivers a performance increase of 15 times the Cortex-A8 performance for similar power usage. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reductive Analysis with Compiler-Guided Large Language Models for Input-Centric Code Optimizations

Input-centric program optimization aims to optimize code by considering the relations between program inputs and program behaviors. Despite its promise, a long-standing barrier for its adoption is the difficulty of automatically identifying critical features of complex inputs. This paper introduces a novel technique, reductive analysis through compiler-guided Large Language Models (LLMs), to solve the problem through a synergy between compilers and LLMs. It uses a reductive approach to overcome the scalability and other limitations of LLMs in program code analysis. The solution, for the first time, automates the identification of critical input features without heavy instrumentation or profiling, cutting the time needed for input identification by 44× (or 450× for local LLMs), reduced from 9.6 hours to 13 minutes (with remote LLMs) or 77 seconds (with local LLMs) on average, making input characterization possible to be integrated into the workflow of program compilations. Optimizations on those identified input features show similar or even better results than those identified by previous profiling-based methods, leading to optimizations that yield 92.6% accuracy in selecting the appropriate adaptive OpenMP parallelization decisions, and 20-30% performance improvement of serverless computing while reducing resource usage by 50-60%.

Input-Centric Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2019

Adaptive mesh refinement for steady flows in Nek5000

Adaptive mesh refinement is performed in the framework of the spectral element method augmented by approaches to error estimation and control. The h-refinement technique is used for adapting the mesh, where selected grid elements are split by a quadtree (2D) or octree (3D) structure. Continuity between parent-child elements is enforced by high-order interpolation of the solution across the common faces. Parallel mesh partitioning and grid management respectively, are taken care of by the external libraries ParMETIS and p4est. Two methods are considered for estimating and controlling the error of the solution. The first error estimate is local and based on the spectral properties of the solution on each element. This method gives a local measure of the L-2-norm of the solution over the entire computational domain. The second error estimate uses the dual-weighted residuals method - it is based on and takes into account both the local properties of the solution and the global dependence of the error in the solution via an adjoint problem. The objective of this second approach is to optimize the computation of a given functional of physical interest. The simulations are performed by using the code Nek5000 and three steady-state test cases are studied: a two-dimensional lid-driven cavity at Re = 7, 500, a two-dimensional flow past a cylinder at Re = 40, and a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity at Re = 2,000 with a moving lid tilted by an angle of 30 degrees. Finally, the efficiency of both error estimators is compared in terms of refinement patterns and accuracy on the functional of interest. In the case of the adjoint error estimators, the trend on the error of the functional is shown to be correctly represented up to a multiplicative constant.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗