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DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reliability and Durability Testing of Glass Ceramic Seals for Praxair’s Oxygen Transport Membranes

Praxair has been developing Oxygen Transport Membrane (OTM) systems for the efficient conversion of natural gas to syngas which can subsequently be used in chemical synthesis, generation of industrial gases (H2, CO) or synthesis of liquid fuels. One of the technical barriers for commercialization of this technology is the reliability of key components of OTM systems – Seals and Membranes. Praxair has been testing these components at the process conditions expected for commercial systems. However, long-term durability data is currently limited and is not sufficiently available to make well informed predictions of OTM reliability which represents one of the major risks that could prevent the technology from being fully commercialized. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing high temperature seals and ceramic membranes for applications similar to OTM systems such as Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. The goal of the cooperative development between Praxair and PNNL is to generate long-term data such that there is sufficient confidence in the OTM seal and membrane reliability predictions to enable the process technology to be fully commercialized.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time-Dependent Failure Assessment of Ceramic Receivers

The outlet temperature targets for Gen 3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems pose a significant challenge to the structural reliability of high temperature metallic components, including those manufactured from nickel-based superalloys. Advanced ceramics present a potential solution due to their excellent high-temperature strength. However, accurate assessment of ceramic components requires an entirely different approach compared to metallic components. This paper describes the implementation of time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic components in srlife – an open-source software package for estimating the life of high temperature CSP components. This new capability will allow high temperature CSP designers to make fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs and accurately assess the performance of different ceramic materials for CSP receivers and other components. The current version of the tool is available at https://github.com/Argonne-National-Laboratory/srlife.

Barua, Bipul (ORCID:0000000247184113)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A review of functions, attributes, properties and measurements for the quality control of proton exchange membrane fuel cell components

Quality control (QC) is an essential part of fuel cell technology industrialization, providing means to reduce cost of components, enhancing the reliability of the final product, and offering specification guidance for new entrants in the supply chain. The membrane electrode assembly (MEA), including membrane, catalyst layer (CL), and gas diffusion layer (GDL), as well as bipolar plate (BP), are key components of a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, and the attributes of each component strongly correlate with the cell performance and longevity. To ensure the quality of the fuel cell, it is of great importance to characterize the properties with respect to the standardization of component/sub-component specifications. In collaboration with the fuel cell industry, this work aims at establishing compendiums of attributes, or so-called books of attributes, of key fuel cell components for the QC of PEM fuel cells through reviewing, identifying, categorizing, and prioritizing the main attributes/properties that determine their functionalities. The books of attributes for the major PEM fuel cell components include catalyst coated membrane (CCM) as a sub-assembly, GDL, and BP. To address the full spectrum of fuel cell components, gaskets and sub-gaskets are also included.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Battery Energy Storage Systems Report

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are a critical component of grid reliability and resilience today, providing rapid response capabilities while enabling grid modernization and capacity expansion across the United States. As utilities, communities, and customers prepare to deploy significant BESS capacity over the next several years, the United States has an opportunity to build security into battery system design and deployments. This report provides a framework for assessing the current dominance of foreign-manufactured components in the supply chains for BESS, inverter-based resources, and transformers. It offers high-impact, actionable solutions to service partners, industry, and government to address supply chain risks for currently installed, in design, and future deployments.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microbead Encapsulation for Protection of Electronic Components

Here, this study investigates the application of microbeads as an innovative encapsulation technique to protect electronic components from harsh mechanical strain. Traditional encapsulation methods using hard epoxy provide substantial mechanical support but create thermal expansion mismatch issues, potentially leading to electronic component failure. We explore the use of finely powdered microbeads to achieve protective structures combining stiffness and energy absorption. The research focuses on key variables, including microbead size, microbead roughness, compaction of microbeads, and circuit board mounting in the encapsulation, all of which influence the encapsulation’s effectiveness. Experimental setups and testing protocols were developed to assess the performance of various microbead materials under different impact conditions. Results demonstrate that microbead encapsulation significantly reduces strain on circuit boards, minimizing the risk of damage during mechanical shocks. However, challenges remain, such as optimizing microbead characteristics and modeling their behavior within large-scale circuit board assemblies. Despite these challenges, the findings suggest that microbead encapsulation offers a promising alternative to conventional methods, enhancing the durability and reliability of electronic components in high-stress environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pre-Commercial Scale-Up of a Gas-Fired Absorption Heat Pump

The project sought to advance the maturity of SMTI’s 80 kBTU/hr residential space and water heating GAHP from the engineering prototype stage (TRL-7) to pre-production readiness by addressing manufacturing, balance of system design and installation, cost, reliability, and field application questions. As part of this project, the project team has: (1) Matured the design package for a commercially ready product (2) Demonstrated compliance with relevant ANSI standards (3) Completed manufacturing and assembly process specifications (4) Completed total production cost estimates and capital equipment requirements (5) Initiated component and system level reliability assessments (6) Completed a small field demonstration including measured performance, installation requirements and expected costs, and customer/key stakeholder feedback. (7) Completed a Techno-economic analysis for representative applications and climate zones, including justification for utility incentive programs. (8) Completed a market intelligence report. Scope of Work: A multi-faceted project was completed that included: (a) design for manufacturing tasks for both the sealed system and balance of system, (b) development and trial of key manufacturing processes and techniques, (c) evaluation of component and system level reliability, (d) exploration of make/buy decisions including impact on cost and required capital. Additionally, (e) installation and monitoring of a small number of field test units was completed to demonstrate energy savings and collect customer/installer feedback, and (f) a focused market research task was completed to explore potential barriers and improve market introduction plans. These tasks addressed many of the remaining technical risks regarding long-term reliability, verification of manufacturing cost estimates and identification of cost concerns, identify installation and balance of system design criteria necessary to achieve energy savings and installed cost goals, and identify market barriers and strategies prior to product market introduction.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A structured framework for predicting sustainable aviation fuel properties using liquid-phase FTIR and machine learning

Sustainable aviation fuels have the potential to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. To help identify viable sustainable aviation fuels and accelerate research, machine learning models have been developed to predict relevant physicochemical properties. However, many models have limited applicability, leverage data from complex analytical techniques with confined spectral ranges, or use feature decomposition methods that offer limited interpretability. Using liquid-phase Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectra, this study presents a structured method for creating accurate and interpretable property prediction models for neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. Liquid FTIR spectra can be collected quickly and consistently, offering high reliability, sensitivity, and component specificity using less than 2 ml of sample. The method first decomposes FTIR spectra into fundamental building blocks using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to enable scientific analysis of FTIR spectra attributes and fuel properties. The NMF features are then used to create five ensemble models for predicting final boiling point, flash point, freezing point, density at 15°C, and kinematic viscosity at -20°C. All models were trained using experimental property data from neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. The models accurately predict key properties across a broad range of neat molecules and representative fuels and blends, while enabling interpretation of relationships between compositional elements, such as functional groups or chemical classes, and their resulting properties. This demonstrates strong potential to support sustainable aviation fuel research and development. The models and data are available on an interactive web tool.

Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling low cycle fatigue (LCF) of additively manufactured Hastelloy X using An accelerated crystal plasticity fatigue damage model

This paper presents a microstructure-based model for low cycle fatigue (LCF) behavior and life of Nickel-based alloy Hastelloy X manufactured using laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM). AM Hastelloy X, a solution-strengthened alloy, is tested at elevated temperature under fully reversed LCF conditions at different strain levels. A generalized plane strain finite element model is generated from electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) characterization. The constitutive behavior of the material under fatigue is modeled using crystal plasticity and calibrated with both monotonic tensile and cyclic stress–strain data. The fatigue micro-crack initiation and propagation in the microstructure is modeled using a modified Chaboche fatigue damage model. An embedded boundary condition with a homogenous medium is used to apply the cyclic deformation and prevent numerically introduced over-constraints during fatigue simulation. A ‘cycle-jump’ method is used to accelerate the fatigue simulation and reduce the computational cost. The simulation results are compared to LCF experiments, showing satisfactory matches in cyclic stress behavior and number of cycles to macro-crack initiation for all applied strain ranges. In addition, the model illustrates the potential for quantifying microscale fatigue life impacting factors such as microstructure and surface roughness, which is needed to accurately quantify the reliability of AM components in service.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process and feedstock driven microstructure for laser powder bed fusion of 316L stainless steel

Here in the pursuit of improving additively manufactured (AM) component quality and reliability, fine-tuning critical process parameters such as laser power and scan speed is a great first step toward limiting defect formation and optimizing the microstructure. However, the synergistic effects between these process parameters, layer thickness, and feedstock attributes (e.g. powder size distribution) on part characteristics such as microstructure, density, hardness, and surface roughness are not as well-studied. In this work, we investigate 316L stainless steel density cubes built via laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF), emphasizing the significant microstructural changes that occur due to altering the volumetric energy density (VED) via laser power, scan speed, and layer thickness changes, coupled with different starting powder size distributions. This study demonstrates that there is not one ideal process set and powder size distribution for each machine. Instead, there are several combinations or feedstock/process parameter ‘recipes’ to achieve similar goals. This study also establishes that for equivalent VEDs, changing powder size can significantly alter part density, GND density, and hardness. Through proper parameter and feedstock control, part attributes such as density, grain size, texture, dislocation density, hardness, and surface roughness can be customized, thereby creating multiple high-performance regions in the AM process space.

316L stainless steel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Activation Energy for End-of-Life Solder Bond Degradation: Thermal Cycling of Field-Aged PV Modules

The longevity of solar photovoltaic modules depends on the durability and reliability of their components, one of which is the solder bonds in interconnect ribbons. The solder joints experience stresses from thermal cycling and constant elevated temperatures (40 °C-70 °C) in regular field operation leading to thermo-mechanical fatigue and intermetallic compound formation. To study the end-of-life wear-out mechanisms and to obtain activation energy of solder bond degradation, here two field-aged modules from Arizona-a 21-year-old Solarex MSX60 module (with Sn62Pb36Ag2 at the solder joints) and an 18-year-old Siemens M55 module (with Sn60Pb40 at the solder joints)-underwent 800 and 400 modified thermal cycles, respectively. Using three heating blankets, each module had three temperature zones maintained at 85, 95, and 105 °C during the 15-min hot dwell time of the thermal cycle. Cell-level series resistance data obtained from three temperature zones enabled the calculation of activation energy for solder bond degradation for the MSX60 and the M55 modules to be 0.12 eV and 0.35 eV, respectively. From each temperature zone in both modules, busbar-solder samples were obtained, imaged through SEM, and analyzed with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. In the MSX60 module with traces of Ag in the solder material, phase segregation and growth were primarily observed at high temperatures. For M55 modules without Ag in the solder material, major phase segregation was observed in all temperature zones. The IMC thickness for both modules increased with increasing module temperature. The beneficial effect of Ag in solder material on mitigating solder bond degradation is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Boiler Health Monitoring Using a Hybrid First Principles-Artificial Intelligence Model

Due to increased penetration of the intermittent renewables to the grid, pulverized coal (PC) plants are being forced to cycle their load frequently and rapidly, operate at low load condition for sustained period, and start up and shut down several hundred times in a year in the worst case. These severe operations are causing substantial damage to the boiler components compromising the reliability of PC plants. An online health monitoring tool can be instrumental in understanding the impacts of load-following and can eventually help PC plants to develop advanced process control strategies for improved flexibility without compromising safety nor reliability.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗