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DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking hidden information in sparse small-angle neutron scattering measurements

Hypothesis Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is a powerful technique for studying soft matter systems such as colloids, polymers, and lyotropic phases, providing nanoscale structural insights. However, its effectiveness is limited by low neutron flux, leading to long acquisition times and noisy data. Here, we hypothesize that Bayesian statistical inference using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) can reconstruct high-fidelity scattering data from sparse measurements by leveraging intensity smoothness and continuity. Experiments and Simulations The method was benchmarked computationally and validated through SANS experiments on various soft matter systems, including wormlike micelles, colloidal suspensions, polymeric structures, and lyotropic phases. GPR-based inference was applied to both experimental and synthetic data to evaluate its effectiveness in noise reduction and intensity reconstruction. Findings GPR significantly enhances SANS data quality and therefore reducing measurement times by up to two orders of magnitude. This cost-effective approach maximizes experimental efficiency, enabling high-throughput studies and real-time monitoring of dynamic systems. It is particularly beneficial for weakly scattering and time-sensitive studies. Beyond SANS, this framework applies to other low-SNR techniques, including laboratory-based small-angle X-ray scattering and various dynamical scattering methods. Furthermore, it offers transformative potential for compact neutron sources, enhancing their viability for structural analysis in resource-limited settings.

Small angle neutron scattering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizers for stabilizing likelihood-free inference

A growing number of applications in particle physics and beyond use neural networks as unbinned likelihood ratio estimators applied to real or simulated data. Precision requirements on the inference tasks demand a high-level of stability from these networks, which are affected by the stochastic nature of training. We show how physics concepts can be used to stabilize network training through a physics-inspired optimizer. In particular, the energy conserving descent (ECD) optimization framework uses classical Hamiltonian dynamics on the space of network parameters to reduce the dependence on the initial conditions while also stabilizing the result near the minimum of the loss function. We develop a version of this optimizer known as , which has few free hyperparameters with limited ranges guided by physical reasoning. We apply to representative likelihood-ratio estimation tasks in particle physics and find on average that it out-performs the widely used Adam optimizer. We expect that ECD will be a useful tool for wide array of data-limited problems, where it is computationally expensive to exhaustively optimize hyperparameters and mitigate fluctuations with ensembling.

Monte Carlo methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven reduced-order models for port-Hamiltonian systems with operator inference

Hamiltonian operator inference has been developed in Sharma et al. (2022) to learn structure-preserving reduced-order models (ROMs) for Hamiltonian systems. The method constructs a low-dimensional model using only data and knowledge of the functional form of the Hamiltonian. The resulting ROMs preserve the intrinsic structure of the system, ensuring that the mechanical and physical properties of the system are maintained. In this work, we extend this approach to port-Hamiltonian systems, which generalize Hamiltonian systems by including energy dissipation, external input, and output. Based on snapshots of the system’s state and output, together with the information about the functional form of the Hamiltonian, reduced operators are inferred through optimization and are then used to construct data-driven ROMs. To further alleviate the complexity of evaluating nonlinear terms in the ROMs, a hyper-reduction method via discrete empirical interpolation is applied. Accordingly, we derive error estimates for the ROM approximations of the state and output. Lastly, we demonstrate the structure preservation, as well as the accuracy of the proposed port-Hamiltonian operator inference framework, through numerical experiments on a linear mass–spring-damper problem and a nonlinear Toda lattice problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resilient information and inference networks under mixed-trust sensing

With ubiquitous digitization, sensing, and computational intelligence deployed in increasingly more and broader domains, including critical infrastructure, potentially misleading and destabilizing effects of multimodal anomalies and adversarial behavior are growing in importance. Here, we develop randomized and reinforcement learning-based strategies for strategically recruiting and utilizing deployed (and, thus, vulnerable and potentially faulty and/or compromised) nodes from information and inference networks, while defending against adversaries that attempt to misguide assessments of inferred variables. Recognizing that, besides communication and other costs, sampling from any observable node can either provide true data or dangerously expose our inference to misinformation (without being easily distinguishable what actually happens), the proposed strategies proceed by progressively recruiting nodes and cautiously scaling their information contribution based on assumed, or, in our reinforcement learning approach, intelligently weighed trustworthiness, with the learning approach also considering network-wide, threat-inclusive risk/value tradeoffs. While avoiding the hardware, communication, analytical and computational burden of explicit redundancy, the proposed defensive schemes enable on-the-fly assessments of underlying processes, and system-wide situational awareness with demonstrable resilience against adversarial activities.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Authorship Guidelines

Authorship Guidelines were developed to help facilitate trust among team members as we span multiple institutions, scientific disciplines, and career stages. NGEE Arctic was built on a foundation of open science, data sharing, and collaboration. In Phase 4 of the project, it was particularly important to keep this foundation in mind as we develop new collaborations across the Arctic. Included in this package is one *.pdf. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

Iversen, Colleen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000182933450)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing Improves Multi‐Hazard Flooding and Extreme Heat Detection by Fivefold Over Current Estimates

The co‐occurrence of multiple hazards is of growing concern globally as the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events increases. Despite studies examining the spatial distribution of such events, there has been little work in examining if all relevant life threatening and damaging hazards are captured in existing hazard databases and by common hazard metrics. For example, local/regional flash flooding events are seldom captured by optical satellite instruments and are subsequently excluded from global hazard databases. Similarly, the heat hazard definitions most frequently used in multi‐hazard studies inherently fail to capture events that are life‐threatening but climatologically within an expected range. Our goal is to determine the potential for increasing multi‐hazard event detection capabilities by inferring additional hazard footprints from widely accessible satellite data. We use daily precipitation and temperature satellite data to develop an open‐source framework that infers additional hazard footprints that are not included in traditional methods. With the state of Texas as our study area, we detected 2.5 times as many flood hazards, equivalent to $320 million in property and crop damages. Furthermore, our expanded heat hazard definition increases the impacted area by 56.6%, equivalent to 91.5 million km 2 over an 18 year period. Increasing hazard detection capabilities and expanding existing definitions of hazards using daily satellite data increases the temporal and spatial resolutions at which multi‐hazard events are detected. Having more complete data sets of all relevant hazard extents improves our ability to track global trends and more accurately determine the magnitude of hazard exposure inequities.

equity↗

DOE OSTI2026

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Continuum of magnetic excitations in the Kitaev honeycomb iridate D 3 LiIr 2 O 6

Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) measurements of powder D 3 ( 7 Li)( 193 Ir) 2 O 6 reveal low energy magnetic excitations with a scattering cross-section that is broad in ∣Q∣ and energy transfer. The magnetic nature of the excitation spectrum is demonstrated by longitudinally polarized neutron scattering. The total magnetic moment of 1.8(4)μ B /Ir inferred from the observed magnetic scattering cross-section is consistent with the effective moment inferred from magnetic susceptibility data and expectations for the J eff = 1/2 single ion state. The rise in the dynamic correlation function $\mathcal{S}(Q,w)$ for ℏω < 5 meV can be described by a simple model assuming nearest-neighbor anisotropic spin exchange, such as that found in the Kitaev model. Exchange disorder associated with the D site likely plays an important role in stabilizing the low T quantum fluctuating state.

Halloran, Thomas [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, ↗

DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)

As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resonant scattering at the center of the galaxy cluster PKS 0745-191 with XRISM

We report evidence of the resonant scattering effect at the center of the galaxy cluster PKS 0745-191 with XRISM. We analyzed XRISM/Resolve commissioning-phase observations of the distant cluster PKS 0745-191 ($z = 0.103$) with a $54$ ks exposure. The gain drift was corrected using the onboard modulated X-ray source (MXS), and spectra were extracted from all the pixels that were well illuminated by MXS, the core region (four central pixels, $\sim$100 kpc), and the surrounding region. A single-temperature collisional ionization equilibrium (CIE) model fits the full field-of-view spectrum with $kT \approx 6$ keV and a turbulent velocity of ${\approx}120$ km s$^{-1}$. From the core ($r < 50$ kpc) spectrum, we detected a ${\approx}22\%$ suppression of the Fe xxv He$\alpha$ resonance (w) line relative to the CIE prediction. We performed a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the resonant scattering (RS) effect using radial profiles from Chandra data. The RS-inferred turbulence agrees with that by Resolve line-broadening, demonstrating that RS provides an independent and consistent constraint on ICM turbulence. These results highlight XRISM/Resolve’s potential for turbulence studies in galaxy clusters.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Signature of hadron-quark crossover in binary-neutron-star mergers

Here, we study observational signatures of the hadron-quark crossover in binary-neutron-star mergers by numerical-relativity simulations with various mass configurations. We employ two equations of state (EoSs) for matter consistent with inference from the observational data. In the crossover scenario the EoS is softened in a density realized in binary-neutron-star mergers and is smoothly continued to quark matter. In the phase transition scenario without crossover, the EoS remains stiff and a first-order phase transition takes place in a density out of reach of mergers. A GW170817-like system forms a remnant massive neutron star in both scenarios, and it collapses into a black hole only in the crossover scenario due to the softening while gravitational-wave emission is strong. This difference is clearly reflected in the sudden shutdown of gravitational waves. For a given EoS, the lifetime of the merger remnant is determined primarily by the total mass of the system. Identifying these features in a variety of future events with the next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will enable us to clarify details of hadron-quark transition. The mass of the accretion disk surrounding the remnant black hole is affected not only by the lifetime of the remnant but also by the mass ratio of the system. Electromagnetic emission associated with the disk outflow will also be useful for detailed investigation of the hadron-quark transition.

QCD phase transitions↗

DOE OSTI2025

DriveSense: A Noise-Resilient Framework for Driving Mode Identification

Accurate drive mode classification is essential for enhancing the reliability and predictive maintenance of heavy-duty electric trucks. This study proposes a novel fuzzy logic-based framework, DriveSense, for real-time drive mode classification, addressing key challenges such as sensor noise, transitional behaviors, and computational efficiency. The proposed approach integrates a two-stage filtering pipeline, combining adaptive outlier removal and a dynamic Kalman filter to enhance data quality. A fuzzy inference system with smoothened trapezoidal membership functions is then applied to classify driving modes into standstill, constant speed, acceleration, and deceleration while mitigating the effects of noise and edge cases. Performance evaluation using real-world and simulated drive cycles demonstrates significant improvements in classification accuracy (up to 97.8%), F1-score (up to 0.97), and robustness against noise, while reducing false positives. Comparative analysis against baseline models, demonstrates DriveSense’s superior accuracy and generalizability across diverse driving patterns. The framework’s lightweight and interpretable fuzzy inference engine operates with low computational latency, ensuring compatibility with real-time embedded systems typical of heavy-duty electric trucks. Moreover, DriveSense models transitional behaviors through overlapping fuzzy sets and adaptive borderline classification logic, enabling smooth identification of subtle shifts such as rolling stops or gradual deceleration. These results highlight DriveSense’s potential to enhance predictive maintenance strategies, reduce downtime, and support scalable, fleet-wide diagnostics.

Kumar, Praveen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗