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Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spectral Rear Irradiance Testing and Modeling for Degradation and Performance of Solar Fields: Preprint

This work investigates how the spectrum of irradiance incident on the rear of solar modules impacts their degradation, and in case of bifacial PV their performance. We calculate the spectral irradiance incident on the rear of modules through raytrace simulations and validate with measured field data collected from a 75kW single axis-tracked bifacial test site. An equation to calculate relative degradation is shown, showing that current acceleration factors for UV damage in chambers can be off by +3% for the rear surfaces. Finally, a method for improving non-spectral simulations is proposed.

bifacial performance↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Internal Degradation and Crushing of Dual-Purpose Canisters.

Abstract not provided.

varun↗

NASA NTRS1975

A radiation model for geocentric trajectory calculations

A solar cell degradation model developed for the SECKSPOT trajectory optimization code is presented. The model is based on two analytic expressions, one describing solar cell power degradation as a function of 1 MeV equivalent fluence and cell base resistivity and thickness, and one describing a spatial field of 1 MeV equivalent electron flux. The model extends the latitude range, provides a continuous and smooth representation of the flux field, and provides for changing the cell characteristics. Construction of a 1 MeV electron flux model and of a power loss model are described. It is shown that modeling the 1 MeV flux field as a separate entity allows simple consideration of both front and back shielding, and that the coefficients relating to specific cell damage data can be simply updated using the latest cell damage data once the general analytical characteristics of the model have been established.

Malchow, H. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The "PVLib" of Degradation: PVDeg

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs through higher-efficiency cells, improved module designs, and improvements in durability. This leads to the use of new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, and not always with a sufficient amount of durability testing. To help drive down costs there is a desire to create modules that will last for up to 50 years of service life. To accomplish this, every degradation mode and mechanism must be identified and either eliminated or otherwise mitigated. This involves the extrapolation of laboratory results to the field conditions. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. While the basic equations used to model degradation are sometimes very simple, the full analysis involves calculations are cumbersome but ubiquitous for many degradation processes. A simplified, modeling framework to accomplish these repetitive processes will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this talk, we will describe our progress creating the open-source tool PVDeg. This tool can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. PVDeg simplifies many of the common foundational computational operations for obtaining meteorological data and using it to generate a model of the PV deployment. This prediction tool repository also contains various degradation models as well as a library of material parameters suitable for estimating the durability assessment of materials and components. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database, and other weather sources, to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry. During the talk, we will provide the PVPMC attendees the opportunity to interact with the tool via a Google Collab tutorial they can run on their phones or laptops.

durability↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aboveground biomass density models for NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar mission

NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is collecting spaceborne full waveform lidar data with a primary science goal of producing accurate estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD). This paper presents the development of the models used to create GEDI's footprint-level (~25 m) AGBD (GEDI04_A) product, including a description of the datasets used and the procedure for final model selection. The data used to fit our models are from a compilation of globally distributed spatially and temporally coincident field and airborne lidar datasets, whereby we simulated GEDI-like waveforms from airborne lidar to build a calibration database. We used this database to expand the geographic extent of past waveform lidar studies, and divided the globe into four broad strata by Plant Functional Type (PFT) and six geographic regions. GEDI's waveform-to-biomass models take the form of parametric Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with simulated Relative Height (RH) metrics as predictor variables. From an exhaustive set of candidate models, we selected the best input predictor variables, and data transformations for each geographic stratum in the GEDI domain to produce a set of comprehensive predictive footprint-level models. We found that model selection frequently favored combinations of RH metrics at the 98th, 90th, 50th, and 10th height above ground-level percentiles (RH98, RH90, RH50, and RH10, respectively), but that inclusion of lower RH metrics (e.g. RH10) did not markedly improve model performance. Second, forced inclusion of RH98 in all models was important and did not degrade model performance, and the best performing models were parsimonious, typically having only 1-3 predictors. Third, stratification by geographic domain (PFT, geographic region) improved model performance in comparison to global models without stratification. Fourth, for the vast majority of strata, the best performing models were fit using square root transformation of field AGBD and/or height metrics. There was considerable variability in model performance across geographic strata, and areas with sparse training data and/or high AGBD values had the poorest performance. These models are used to produce global predictions of AGBD, but will be improved in the future as more and better training data become available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Aboveground biomass density models for NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar mission

NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is collecting spaceborne full waveform lidar data with a primary science goal of producing accurate estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD). This paper presents the development of the models used to create GEDI’s footprint-level (~25 m) AGBD (GEDI04_A) product, including a description of the datasets used and the procedure for final model selection. The data used to fit our models are from a compilation of globally distributed spatially and temporally coincident field and airborne lidar datasets, whereby we simulated GEDI-like waveforms from airborne lidar to build a calibration database. We used this database to expand the geographic extent of past waveform lidar studies, and divided the globe into four broad strata by Plant Functional Type (PFT) and six geographic regions. GEDI’s waveform-to-biomass models take the form of parametric Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with simulated Relative Height (RH) metrics as predictor variables. From an exhaustive set of candidate models, we selected the best input predictor variables, and data transformations for each geographic stratum in the GEDI domain to produce a set of comprehensive predictive footprint-level models. We found that model selection frequently favored combinations of RH metrics at the 98th, 90th, 50th, and 10th height above ground-level percentiles (RH98, RH90, RH50, and RH10, respectively), but that inclusion of lower RH metrics (e.g. RH10) did not markedly improve model performance. Second, forced inclusion of RH98 in all models was important and did not degrade model performance, and the best performing models were parsimonious, typically having only 1-3 predictors. Third, stratification by geographic domain (PFT, geographic region) improved model performance in comparison to global models without stratification. Fourth, for the vast majority of strata, the best performing models were fit using square root transformation of field AGBD and/or height metrics. There was considerable variability in model performance across geographic strata, and areas with sparse training data and/or high AGBD values had the poorest performance. These models are used to produce global predictions of AGBD, but will be improved in the future as more and better training data become available.

Laura Duncanson↗

NASA NTRS2020

Aircraft Engine Run-To-Failure Data Set Under Real Flight Conditions

The generation of data-driven prognostics models requires the availability of datasets with run-to-failure trajectories. In order to contribute to the development of these methods, the dataset provides a new realistic dataset of run-to-failure trajectories for a small fleet of aircraft engines under realistic flight conditions. The damage propagation modelling used for the generation of this synthetic dataset builds on the modelling strategy from previous work [1] and incorporates two new levels of fidelity. First, it considers real flight conditions as recorded on board of a commercial jet [2]. Secondly, it extends the degradation modelling by relating the degradation process to the operation history. The dataset was generated with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dynamical model [3]. More details about the generation process can be found in [4].

CMAPSS↗

NASA NTRS1978

Statistical fatigue of graphite/epoxy angle-ply laminates in shear

A three-parameter fatigue and residual strength degradation model has been proposed to predict statistically the fatigue behavior of composite laminae under axial shear loadings. The fatigue behavior includes the fatigue life and the fatigue damage expressed in terms of the residual strength degradation. An experimental test program using graphite/epoxy /+ or - 45 deg/2s laminates has been conducted to generate statistically meaningful data in order to examine the validity of the theoretical model. It is shown that the correlation between the theoretical predictions and the test results on the statistical distributions of the fatigue life and the residual strength is excellent. Test results on the shear modulus degradation are also presented and discussed in detail in order to provide insight for the establishment of a shear modulus degradation model.

Yang, J. N.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced battery modeling for interfacial phenomena and optimal charging

Lithium ion batteries are one of the most promising energy storage systems for portable devices, transportation, and renewable grids. To meet the increasing requirements of these applications, higher energy density and areal capacity, long cycle life, fast charging rate and enhanced safety for lithium ion battery (LIBs) are urgently needed. To solve these challenges, the relevant physics at different length scale need to be understood. However, experimental study is time consuming and limited in small scale’s study. Modeling techniques provide us powerful tools to get a deep understanding of the relevant physics and find optimal solutions. This work focuses on studying the mechanism in advanced battery engineering techniques and developing a new charging algorithm by model-based optimization. The research topics are divided into six topics and each topic is reported as a form of journal publication. Paper Ⅰ provides a new aspect of how ALD coating improves the lithium ion diffusion at electrode particles. Paper Ⅱ explains the mechanisms by which 3D electrodes enhance battery performance and reveals guidelines for optimized 3D electrode designs by a 3D electrochemical-mechanical battery model. Paper Ⅲ investigates the electrolyte concentration impact on SEI layer growth and Li plating, especially under high charge rates. Paper Ⅳ proposes an optimized charging protocol for fast charging for reducing the charging time with minimal degradation. Paper Ⅴ reports a comprehensive degradation model for degradation estimation and life predication of energy storage system (ESS). Paper Ⅵ is a study of temperature-dependent state of charge (SOC) estimation for battery pack.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1984

Model of solar cell proton damage

A short circuit current (I sub sc) degradation model for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells irradiated by protons from low energy to 100 MeV was developed. This model was found to be satisfactory in predicting the I sub sc degradation of GaAs cells, but not that of silicon (Si) cells. A modification to the aforementioned model that preserves the optical wavelength dependency in the photogeneration of minority carrier pairs was described herein. Spectral Si and GaAs response and I sub sc for the Si and GaAs solar cells were discussed, and also were presented in graph form. The overall predictability of the modified model was deemed to be satisfactory.

Yaung, J. Y.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Initial Fracture Propagation Modeling of Graphite Components with Grizzly

Graphite has historically been extensively used in power reactor cores and will be used in multiple types of advanced reactors currently under development. These graphite structural components can experience significant stresses due to nonuniform volumetric strains induced by irradiation and thermal expansion, which can lead to fracture. Robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components in nuclear reactors are important for evaluating component integrity, developing design standards, and interpreting experimental results to characterize graphite performance. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program has been developing degradation models for other structural components in nuclear reactors within the Grizzly and BlackBear codes. This report documents an effort to develop initial capabilities for modeling graphite fracture within these codes, building on prior efforts to model fracture in other materials. Major elements of this effort include developing a new system for modeling fracture nucleation and growth in two dimensions using the extended finite element method and incorporating a damage and plasticity model. These capabilities are applied here to model a representative graphite component and a splitting disc experiment used to obtain tensile strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2018

The SPACE Computer Code for Analyzing the International Space Station Electrical Power System: Past, Present, and Future

The System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) computer code was initially developed by NASA in 1988 to assess the Space Station Freedom electric power system and later adapted to support contractor electrical power system capability analyses for the International Space Station (ISS). Over time, the code has supported many efforts such as ISS redesign activities in the early 1990s, assessment of time-phased loads against power system operating limits for future ISS assembly flights (including Certification of Flight Readiness reviews by the ISS program office), and determining the optimum solar array gimbal positions while respecting keep-out zones which minimize both solar array contamination and structural loads. The code has been validated by comparisons with ISS on-orbit data in multiple validation episodes. Recent updates to the code include the incorporation of a Lithium-Ion battery model in addition to the Nickel Hydrogen battery model and modifications to the solar array degradation model to better match on-orbit test results. SPACE has also been extended beyond the ISS to include modeling of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle electrical power system (SPACE-MPCV) and Mars Surface Electrical Power Systems (MSEPS). Portions of SPACE were integrated with a trajectory code to form a Solar Electric Propulsion Simulation (SEPSim), which can be used for analyzing solar electric propulsion missions. In addition, SPACE methods and subroutines have been adapted to a multitude of other projects. This paper summarizes the initial code development and subsequent code utilization in the context of the overall ISS program development and on-orbit operations. Recent updates and results from the code are discussed, including preliminary analyses for the Orion power system.

Electrical Power System↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Overview of Materials Structures for Extreme Environments Efforts for 2015 SBIR Phases I and II

Technological innovation is the overall focus of NASA's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. The program invests in the development of innovative concepts and technologies to help NASA's mission directorates address critical research and development needs for Agency projects. This report highlights innovative SBIR 2015 Phase I and II projects that specifically address areas in Materials and Structures for Extreme Environments, one of six core competencies at NASA Glenn Research Center. Each article describes an innovation, defines its technical objective, and highlights NASA applications as well as commercial and industrial applications. Ten technologies are featured: metamaterials-inspired aerospace structures, metallic joining to advanced ceramic composites, multifunctional polyolefin matrix composite structures, integrated reacting fluid dynamics and predictive materials degradation models for propulsion system conditions, lightweight inflatable structural airlock (LISA), copolymer materials for fused deposition modeling 3-D printing of nonstandard plastics, Type II strained layer superlattice materials development for space-based focal plane array applications, hydrogenous polymer-regolith composites for radiation-shielding materials, a ceramic matrix composite environmental barrier coating durability model, and advanced composite truss printing for large solar array structures. This report serves as an opportunity for NASA engineers, researchers, program managers, and other personnel to learn about innovations in this technology area as well as possibilities for collaboration with innovative small businesses that could benefit NASA programs and projects.

integrated reacting fluid dynamics and predictive ↗

NASA NTRS2012

Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

Electrolytic capacitors↗

NASA NTRS2012

Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

Celaya, Jose R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A prediction model of signal degradation in LMSS for urban areas

A prediction model of signal degradation in a Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) for urban areas is proposed. This model treats shadowing effects caused by buildings statistically and can predict a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of signal diffraction losses in urban areas as a function of system parameters such as frequency and elevation angle and environmental parameters such as number of building stories and so on. In order to examine the validity of the model, we compared the percentage of locations where diffraction losses were smaller than 6 dB obtained by the CDF with satellite visibility measured by a radiometer. As a result, it was found that this proposed model is useful for estimating the feasibility of providing LMSS in urban areas.

Matsudo, Takashi↗