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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a human challenge study

Studying the early events that occur after viral infection in humans is difficult unless one intentionally infects volunteers in a human challenge study. Here, we use data about severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in such a study in combination with mathematical modeling to gain insights into the relationship between the amount of virus in the upper respiratory tract and the immune response it generates. We propose a set of dynamic models of increasing complexity to dissect the roles of target cell limitation, innate immunity, and adaptive immunity in determining the observed viral kinetics. We introduce an approach for modeling the effect of humoral immunity that describes a decline in infectious virus after immune activation. We fit our models to viral load and infectious titer data from all the untreated infected participants in the study simultaneously. We found that a power-law with a power h < 1 describes the relationship between infectious virus and viral load. Viral replication at the early stage of infection is rapid, with a doubling time of ~2 h for viral RNA and ~3 h for infectious virus. We estimate that adaptive immunity is initiated ~7 to 10 d postinfection and appears to contribute to a multiphasic viral decline experienced by some participants; the viral rebound experienced by other participants is consistent with a decline in the interferon response. Altogether, we quantified the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection, shedding light on the early dynamics of the virus and the potential role of innate and adaptive immunity in promoting viral decline during infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

MusMorph, a database of standardized mouse morphology data for morphometric meta-analyses

Complex morphological traits are the product of many genes with transient or lasting developmental effects that interact in anatomical context. Mouse models are a key resource for disentangling such effects, because they offer myriad tools for manipulating the genome in a controlled environment. Unfortunately, phenotypic data are often obtained using laboratory-specific protocols, resulting in self-contained datasets that are difficult to relate to one another for larger scale analyses. To enable meta-analyses of morphological variation, particularly in the craniofacial complex and brain, we created MusMorph, a database of standardized mouse morphology data spanning numerous genotypes and developmental stages, including E10.5, E11.5, E14.5, E15.5, E18.5, and adulthood. To standardize data collection, we implemented an atlas-based phenotyping pipeline that combines techniques from image registration, deep learning, and morphometrics. Alongside stage-specific atlases, we provide aligned micro-computed tomography images, dense anatomical landmarks, and segmentations (if available) for each specimen (N = 10,056). Our workflow is open-source to encourage transparency and reproducible data collection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nebulized delivery of a broadly neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific nanobody prevents clinical, virological, and pathological disease in a Syrian hamster model of COVID-19

There remains an unmet need for globally deployable, low-cost therapeutics for the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Previously, we reported on the isolation and in vitro characterization of a potent single-domain nanobody, NIH-CoVnb-112, specific for the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we report on the molecular basis for the observed broad in vitro neutralization capability of NIH-CoVnb-112 against variant SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses. The structure of NIH-CoVnb-112 bound to SARS-CoV-2 RBD reveals a large contact surface area overlapping the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) binding site, which is largely unencumbered by the common RBD mutations. In an in vivo pilot study, we demonstrate effective reductions in weight loss, viral burden, and lung pathology in a Syrian hamster model of COVID-19 following nebulized delivery of NIH-CoVnb-112. These findings support the further development of NIH-CoVnb-112 as a potential adjunct preventative therapeutic for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The U.S. High-Performance Computing Consortium in the Fight Against COVID-19

U.S. computing leaders, including Department of Energy National Laboratories, have partnered with universities, government agencies, and the private sector to research responses to COVID-19, providing an unprecedented collection of resources that include some of the fastest computers in the world. For HPC users, these leadership machines will drive the AI to accelerate the discovery of promising treatments, enable at-scale simulations to understand the virus’s protein structure and attack mechanisms, and help inform policymakers to deploy resources effectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Furthermore, our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

epicast_heterogeneity

Code supporting the paper "Why population heterogeneity matters for modelling infectious diseases"

Alexander, Scottie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Endogenous adenine mediates kidney injury in diabetic models and predicts diabetic kidney disease in patients

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) can lead to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality, however, few mechanistic biomarkers are available for high-risk patients, especially those without macroalbuminuria. Urine from participants with diabetes from Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC), Singapore Study of Macro-Angiopathy and Reactivity in Type 2 Diabetes (SMART2D), and the Pima Indian Study determined if urine adenine/creatinine ratio (UAdCR) could be a mechanistic biomarker for ESKD. ESKD and mortality were associated with the highest UAdCR tertile in CRIC (HR 1.57, 1.18, 2.10) and SMART2D (HR 1.77, 1.00, 3.12). ESKD was associated with the highest UAdCR tertile in patients without macroalbuminuria in CRIC (HR 2.36, 1.26, 4.39), SMART2D (HR 2.39, 1.08, 5.29), and Pima Indian study (HR 4.57, CI 1.37-13.34). Empagliflozin lowered UAdCR in non-macroalbuminuric participants. Spatial metabolomics localized adenine to kidney pathology and transcriptomics identified ribonucleoprotein biogenesis as a top pathway in proximal tubules of patients without macroalbuminuria, implicating mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR). Adenine stimulated matrix in tubular cells via mTOR and stimulated mTOR in mouse kidneys. A specific inhibitor of adenine production was found to reduce kidney hypertrophy and kidney injury in diabetic mice. We propose that endogenous adenine may be a causative factor in DKD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Intelligence for Autonomous Molecular Design: A Perspective

Domain-aware artificial intelligence has been increasingly adopted in recent years to expedite molecular design in various applications, including drug design and discovery. Recent advances in areas such as physics-informed machine learning and reasoning, software engineering, high-end hardware development, and computing infrastructures are providing opportunities to build scalable and explainable AI molecular discovery systems. This could improve a design hypothesis through feedback analysis, data integration that can provide a basis for the introduction of end-to-end automation for compound discovery and optimization, and enable more intelligent searches of chemical space. Several state-of-the-art ML architectures are predominantly and independently used for predicting the properties of small molecules, their high throughput synthesis, and screening, iteratively identifying and optimizing lead therapeutic candidates. However, such deep learning and ML approaches also raise considerable conceptual, technical, scalability, and end-to-end error quantification challenges, as well as skepticism about the current AI hype to build automated tools. To this end, synergistically and intelligently using these individual components along with robust quantum physics-based molecular representation and data generation tools in a closed-loop holds enormous promise for accelerated therapeutic design to critically analyze the opportunities and challenges for their more widespread application. This article aims to identify the most recent technology and breakthrough achieved by each of the components and discusses how such autonomous AI and ML workflows can be integrated to radically accelerate the protein target or disease model-based probe design that can be iteratively validated experimentally. Taken together, this could significantly reduce the timeline for end-to-end therapeutic discovery and optimization upon the arrival of any novel zoonotic transmission event. Our article serves as a guide for medicinal, computational chemistry and biology, analytical chemistry, and the ML community to practice autonomous molecular design in precision medicine and drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of partial volume correction and analysis of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging in Alzheimer's disease using linear mixed-effects models

Purpose: We evaluated the impact of partial volume correction (PVC) methods on the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau positron-emission tomography (PET) in Alzheimer's disease and the suitability of describing the tau pathology burden temporal trajectories using linear mixed-effects models (LMEM). Methods: We applied van Cittert iterative deconvolution (VC), 2-compartment, and 3-compartment, and the geometric transfer matrix plus region-based voxelwise methods to data acquired in an Alzheimer's disease natural history study over 18 months at a single imaging site. We determined the optimal PVC method by comparing the standardized uptake value ratio change (%ΔSUVR) between diagnostic and tau burden–level groups and the longitudinal repeatability derived from the LMEM. The performance of LMEM analysis for calculating %ΔSUVR was evaluated in a natural history study and in a multisite clinical trial of semorinemab in prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease by comparing results to traditional per-visit estimates. Results: The VC, 2-compartment, and 3-compartment PVC methods had similar performance, whereas region-based voxelwise overcorrected regions with a higher tau burden. The lowest within-subject variability and acceptable group separation scores were observed without PVC. The LMEM-derived %ΔSUVR values were similar to the per-visit estimates with lower variability. Conclusion: The results indicate that the tested PVC methods do not offer a clear advantage or improvement over non-PVC images for the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 PET data. LMEM offers a robust framework for the longitudinal tau PET quantification with low longitudinal test–retest variability. Clinical trial registration: NCT02640092 and NCT03289143.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting

The Method of Analogues (MOA) has gained popularity in the past decade for infectious disease forecasting due to its non-parametric nature. In MOA, the local behavior observed in a time series is matched to the local behaviors of several historical time series. The known values that directly follow the historical time series that best match the observed time series are used to calculate a forecast. This non-parametric approach leverages historical trends to produce forecasts without extensive parameterization, making it highly adaptable. However, MOA is limited in scenarios where historical data is sparse. This limitation was particularly evident during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the emerging global epidemic had little-to-no historical data. In this work, we propose a new method inspired by MOA, called the Synthetic Method of Analogues (sMOA). sMOA replaces historical disease data with a library of synthetic data that describe a broad range of possible disease trends. This model circumvents the need to estimate explicit parameter values by instead matching segments of ongoing time series data to a comprehensive library of synthetically generated segments of time series data. We demonstrate that sMOA has competitive performance with state-of-the-art infectious disease forecasting models, out-performing 78% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Mean Absolute Error and 76% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Weighted Interval Score. Additionally, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification methodology designed for the onset of emerging epidemics. Developing versatile approaches that do not rely on historical data and can maintain high accuracy in the face of novel pandemics is critical for enhancing public health decision-making and strengthening preparedness for future outbreaks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vaccine-Associated Enhanced Respiratory Disease following Influenza Virus Infection in Ferrets Recapitulates the Model in Pigs

Influenza A virus (IAV) causes respiratory disease in swine and humans. Vaccines are used to prevent influenza illness in both populations but must be frequently updated due to rapidly evolving strains. Mismatch between the circulating strains and the strains contained in vaccines may cause loss of efficacy. Whole inactivated virus (WIV) vaccines with adjuvant, utilized by the swine industry, are effective against antigenically similar viruses; however, vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease (VAERD) may happen when the WIV is antigenically mismatched with the infecting virus. VAERD is a repeatable model in pigs, but had yet to be experimentally demonstrated in other mammalian species. We recapitulated VAERD in ferrets, a standard benchmark animal model for studying human influenza infection, in a direct comparison to VAERD in pigs. Both species were vaccinated with WIV with oil-in-water adjuvant containing a d -1 H1N2 (1B.2.2) derived from the pre-2009 human seasonal lineage, then challenged with a 2009 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09, 1A.3.3.2) 5 weeks after vaccination. Nonvaccinated and challenged groups showed typical signs of influenza disease, but the mismatched vaccinated and challenged pigs and ferrets showed elevated clinical signs, despite similar viral loads. VAERD-affected pigs exhibited a 2-fold increase in lung lesions, while VAERDaffected ferrets showed a 4-fold increase. Similar to pigs, antibodies from VAERD-affected ferrets preferentially bound to the HA2 domain of the H1N1pdm09 challenge strain. These results indicate that VAERD is not limited to pigs, as demonstrated here in ferrets, and the need to consider VAERD when evaluating new vaccine platforms and strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗