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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A review on bacteria-derived antioxidant metabolites: their production, purification, characterization, potential applications, and limitations

Abstract Antioxidants are organic molecules that scavenge reactive oxygen species (ROS) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS), thereby maintaining cellular redox balance in living organisms. The human body synthesizes endogenous antioxidants, whereas humans obtain exogenous antioxidants from other organisms such as plants, animals, fungi, and bacteria. This review primarily focuses on the antioxidant potential of natural metabolites and extracts from five major bacterial phyla, including the well-studiedActinobacteriaandCyanobacteria, as well as less-studiedBacteroides,Firmicutes, andProteobacteria.The literature survey revealed that the metabolites and the extracts with antioxidant activity can be obtained from bacterial cells and their culture supernatants. The metabolites with antioxidant activity include pigments, phycobiliproteins, polysaccharides, mycosporins-like amino acids, peptides, phenolic compounds, and alkaloids. Both metabolites and extracts demonstrate in vitro antioxidant capacity through radical-scavenging, metal-reducing, and metal-chelating activity assays. In in vivo models, they can scavenge ROS and RNS directly and/or indirectly eliminate them by enhancing the activities of antioxidant enzymes, such as catalase, superoxide dismutase, and glutathione peroxidase. Due to their antioxidant activities, they may find applications in the cosmetic industry as anti-aging agents for the skin and in medicine as drugs or supplements for combating oxidative stress-related disorders, such as neurodegenerative diseases and diabetes. The literature survey also elucidated that some metabolites and extracts with antioxidant activity also exhibited strong antimicrobial properties. Therefore, we consider that they may have future applications in the treatment of infectious diseases, the preparation of pathogen-free healthy foods, and the extension of food shelf life.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crystal structure of N-terminally hexahistidine-tagged Onchocerca volvulus macrophage migration inhibitory factor-1

Onchocerca volvulus causes blindness, onchocerciasis, skin infections and devastating neurological diseases such as nodding syndrome. New treatments are needed because the currently used drug, ivermectin, is contraindicated in pregnant women and those co-infected with Loa loa . The Seattle Structural Genomics Center for Infectious Disease (SSGCID) produced, crystallized and determined the apo structure of N-terminally hexahistidine-tagged O. volvulus macrophage migration inhibitory factor-1 (His- Ov MIF-1). Ov MIF-1 is a possible drug target. His- Ov MIF-1 has a unique jellyfish-like structure with a prototypical macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) trimer as the `head' and a unique C-terminal `tail'. Deleting the N-terminal tag reveals an Ov MIF-1 structure with a larger cavity than that observed in human MIF that can be targeted for drug repurposing and discovery. Removal of the tag will be necessary to determine the actual biological oligomer of Ov MIF-1 because size-exclusion chomatographic analysis of His- Ov MIF-1 suggests a monomer, while PISA analysis suggests a hexamer stabilized by the unique C-terminal tails.

Kimble, Amber D. (ORCID:0000000167851596)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models for the purpose of forecasting and describing the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Incorporating these data can greatly stabilize a compartmental model fit on early observations, where slight perturbations in the data may lead to model fits that forecast wildly unrealistic peak infection. We introduce a new method for incorporating historic data on the value and time of peak incidence of hospitalization into the fit for a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by formulating the relationship between an SIR model’s starting parameters and peak incidence as a system of two equations that can be solved computationally. We demonstrate how to calculate SIR parameter estimates – which describe disease dynamics such as transmission and recovery rates – using this method, and determine that there is a noticeable loss in accuracy whenever prevalence data is misspecified as incidence data. To exhibit the modeling potential, we update the Dirichlet-Beta State Space modeling framework to use hospital incidence data, as this framework was previously formulated to incorporate only data on total infections. This approach is assessed for practicality in terms of accuracy and speed of computation via simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational epidemiological tools for pandemic analysis, understanding, and response

This suite of software tools is being developed to enhance and analyze computational epidemiological models that incorporate realistic disease dynamics and human behavior, with the goal of supporting epidemic and pandemic response. Specifically, the tools enable data analysis, feature extraction, data synthesis, machine learning model development, and prediction of key public health outcomes, such as cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and behavioral responses, for airborne infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza.

Butts, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing the central role of non-model biorepositories in predictive modeling of emerging pathogens

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the insufficiency of a reactive approach to emerging zoonotic pathogens. With spillover increasing in frequency as environments change and the human footprint continues to grow, pandemic prevention will require predictive models that can identify (i) potential zoonoses with a high likelihood of emergence and (ii) environmental or other features that may trigger a shift in host, vector, or pathogen baselines associated with emergence and/or spillover. Artificial intelligence (AI), and particularly its machine learning and deep learning branches, holds enormous potential for detecting shifts in large-scale biodiversity and disease datasets (genomic, ecological, geospatial, etc.). Such algorithms can be trained to identify subtle patterns in large volumes of data to yield insights into complex phenomena for which we have limited knowledge of the true cause(s) or predictor(s), as is the case for emerging infectious diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Viral Inhibitors Derived from Macroalgae, Microalgae, and Cyanobacteria: A review of antiviral potential throughout pathogenesis

Viruses are abiotic obligate parasites utilizing complex mechanisms to hijack cellular machinery and reproduce, causing multiple harmful effects in the process. Viruses represent a growing global health concern; at the time of writing, COVID-19 has killed at least two million people around the world and devastated global economies. Lingering concern regarding the virus’ prevalence yet hampers return to normalcy. While catastrophic in and of itself, COVID-19 further heralds in a new era of human-disease interaction characterized by the emergence of novel viruses from natural sources with heretofore unseen frequency. Due to deforestation, population growth, and climate change, we are encountering more viruses that can infect larger groups of people with greater ease and increasingly severe outcomes. The devastation of COVID-19 and forecasts of future human/disease interactions call for a creative reconsideration of global response to infectious disease. There is an urgent need for accessible, cost-effective antiviral (AV) drugs that can be mass-produced and widely distributed to large populations. Development of AV drugs should be informed by a thorough understanding of viral structure and function as well as human biology. To maximize efficacy, minimize cost, and reduce development of drug-resistance, these drugs would ideally operate through a varied set of mechanisms at multiple stages throughout the course of infection. Due to their abundance and diversity, natural compounds are ideal for such comprehensive therapeutic interventions. Promising sources of such drugs are found throughout nature; especially remarkable are the algae, a polyphyletic grouping of phototrophs that produce diverse bioactive compounds. While not much literature has been published on the subject, studies have shown that these compounds exert antiviral effects at different stages of viral pathogenesis. In this review, we follow the course of viral infection in the human body and evaluate the AV effects of algae-derived compounds at each stage. Specifically, we examine the AV activities of algae-derived compounds at the entry of viruses into the body, transport through the body via the lymph and blood, infection of target cells, and immune response. We discuss what is known about algae-derived compounds that may interfere with the infection pathways of SARS-CoV-2; and review which algae are promising sources for AV agents or AV precursors that, with further investigation, may yield life-saving drugs due to their diversity of mechanisms and exceptional pharmaceutical potential.

Algae, antiviral, SARS-CoV-2, seaweed, cyanobacter↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of experimental methods to determine bioaerosol transfer in energy recovery ventilators

Increasing ventilation is an effective method to reduce indoor airborne disease transmission. An Energy recovery ventilator (ERV) is a passive energy recovery device used to reduce the energy consumption of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for conditioning the ventilation air. It preconditions the ventilation air by transferring energy from building exhaust air. Therefore, the ventilation and exhaust air streams interact directly/indirectly in the ERV for energy transfer. It is surmised that the ERV may transfer bioaerosols (with pathogens) from the exhaust air to ventilation air, resulting in the spread of infectious diseases. Consequently, many pandemic HVAC guidelines recommend that the use of ERVs be limited. This is a highly unsustainable direction given the increased energy requirements associated with the high ventilation provision advocated for pandemic operation. It must be noted that no validated experimental evidence exists in literature for bioaerosol transfer in ERVs. Hence, it is necessary to conduct extensive bioaerosol transfer research before adopting the unsustainable practice of limiting the utilization of ERVs. The main objective of this review study is to summarize the experimental methods and instrumentation for bioaerosol transfer research in ERVs. This comprehensive article provides a detailed overview of the generation, sampling, and analysis of bioaerosols for conducting the experiments. Further, it explains the possible mechanisms for bioaerosol transfer in various types of ERVs based on which the ERVs that need immediate attention are identified. The main contribution of this research paper is that it provides a novel experimental method which encompasses the biosafety aspects, instrumentation, performance parameters and uncertainties in conducting virus contained bioaerosol transfer study in ERVs. The findings from this review will be helpful in designing bioaerosol transfer experiments and developing future ERV test standards for such experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Editorial: Nanotechnology for natural products

Humans around the globe have lived through an unprecedented time. The emergence and rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have resulted in the loss of millions of lives, and this number is still climbing every day and hour. As a consequence, there have been drastic changes over the past two years in how we live, communicate, and work, some of which may have changed forever: remote conferencing has become a new norm for businesses, schools, and academia; work-from-home and hybrid working is now more than just acceptable in many industries; most importantly, COVID-19 has raised global awareness of infectious diseases and pandemic responses to an exceptional level. Certainly, COVID-19 is not the only disease that is causing human suffering at this moment. Other highly contagious and lethal viruses, such as the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Ebola, and the recent addition to the list, Monkeypox, pose extraordinary challenges to modern civilizations. On the other hand, non-communicable diseases, such as heart disease, stroke, and cancer, are still claiming the majority of deaths on a global level (World Health Organization, 2020). Before the availability of synthetic drugs, civilizations worldwide relied on natural products extracted from the environment and various organisms for healthcare. Natural products and their derivatives continue to be critical components in the drug library available today. Indeed, almost a quarter of the new drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) since 1981 are natural products, botanical mixtures, or their derivatives (Newman and Cragg, 2020). Recent developments in analytical characterization, genome mining, and engineering have further increased interest in drug discovery from the pool of natural products (Atanasov et al., 2021). This Research Topic celebrates a collection of studies at the intersection of natural product research and nanotechnological advances. As a successor and extension of the Research Topic in “Nanotechnology in Traditional Medicines and Natural Products” published last year (Zhang et al., 2021), the present collection focused more on recent developments in employing the synthesis and characterization of nanostructures for the delivery of functional natural products. Specifically, the use of carrier nanostructures to conjugate or encapsulate therapeutically active natural products with carrier nanostructures could enable their robust, targeted delivery tailored to either tackle a specific disease or unlock a drug administration pathway. Over the last decade, nanostructures such as liposomes (Pattni et al., 2015) and lipid nanoparticles (Hou et al., 2021) have been developed as versatile platforms for the inclusion and delivery of a wide range of therapeutical compounds; a significant advance in this aspect is the stabilization of mRNA strands for COVID-19 vaccination recently produced by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna (Tenchov et al., 2021). Such engineered nanomaterials are now widely used in the development of new drugs, while regulatory forces, such as the US FDA, remain cautious with the evaluation of each product on a case-by-case basis (Wang and Grainger, 2022). In this collection, Zeng et al. provided a timely review of natural products conjugated to and contained within nanomaterials for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Natural products that are potentially useful in the mitigation of this disease, such as chloroquine and curcumin, supported in nanocarrier systems, have been discussed in detail. More broadly, Cheng et al. comprehensively reviewed the use of liposomes as a nanocarrier for natural products. This article provides a summary of natural product compounds and extracts used to form liposomal structures. Readers can further enjoy the practical aspects of these engineered drugs for the treatment of specific diseases as well as insights into future directions in this field.

peptides↗
DOE OSTI2022

A triton X-100 assisted PMAxx-qPCR assay for rapid assessment of infectious African swine fever virus

Introduction African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly infectious disease of pigs, caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV). The lack of vaccines and drugs makes strict disinfection practices to be one of the main measurements to curb the transmission of ASF. Therefore, it is important to assess if all viruses are inactivated after disinfection or after long time exposure in their natural conditions. Currently, the infectivity of ASFV is determined by virus isolation and culture in a biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratory. However, BSL-3 laboratories are not readily available, need skilled expertise and may be time consuming. Methods In this study, a Triton X-100 assisted PMAxx-qPCR method was developed for rapid assessment of infectious ASFV in samples. PMAxx, an improved version of propidium monoazide (PMA), can covalently cross-link with naked ASFV-DNA or DNA inside inactivated ASFV virions under assistance of 0.1% (v/v) TritonX-100, but not with ASFV-DNA inside live virions. Formation of PMAxx-DNA conjugates prevents PCR amplification, leaving only infectious virions to be detected. Under optimum conditions, the limit of detection of the PMAxx-qPCR assay was 2.32log 10 HAD 50 /mL of infectious ASFV. Testing different samples showed that the PMAxx-qPCR assay was effective to evaluate intact ASFV virions after treatment by heat or chemical disinfectants and in simulated samples such as swine tissue homogenate, swine saliva swabs, and environmental swabs. However, whole-blood and saliva need to be diluted before testing because they may inhibit the PCR reaction or the cross-linking of PMAxx with DNA. Conclusion The Triton X-100 assisted PMAxx-qPCR assay took less than 3 h from sample to result, offering an easier and faster way for assessing infectious ASFV in samples from places like pig farms and pork markets.

Liu, Huan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drug discovery efforts at George Mason University

With over 39,000 students, and research expenditures in excess of $200 million, George Mason University (GMU) is the largest R1 (Carnegie Classification of very high research activity) university in Virginia. Mason scientists have been involved in the discovery and development of novel diagnostics and therapeutics in areas as diverse as infectious diseases and cancer. Below are highlights of the efforts being led by Mason researchers in the drug discovery arena. To enable targeted cellular delivery, and non-biomedical applications, Veneziano and colleagues have developed a synthesis strategy that enables the design of self-assembling DNA nanoparticles (DNA origami) with prescribed shape and size in the 10 to 100 nm range. The nanoparticles can be loaded with molecules of interest such as drugs, proteins and peptides, and are a promising new addition to the drug delivery platforms currently in use. The investigators also recently used the DNA origami nanoparticles to fine tune the spatial presentation of immunogens to study the impact on B cell activation. These studies are an important step towards the rational design of vaccines for a variety of infectious agents. To elucidate the parameters for optimizing the delivery efficiency of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs), Buschmann, Paige and colleagues have devised methods for predicting and experimentally validating the pKa of LNPs based on the structure of the ionizable lipids used to formulate the LNPs. These studies may pave the way for the development of new LNP delivery vehicles that have reduced systemic distribution and improved endosomal release of their cargo post administration. To better understand protein-protein interactions and identify potential drug targets that disrupt such interactions, Luchini and colleagues have developed a methodology that identifies contact points between proteins using small molecule dyes. The dye molecules noncovalently bind to the accessible surfaces of a protein complex with very high affinity, but are excluded from contact regions. When the complex is denatured and digested with trypsin, the exposed regions covered by the dye do not get cleaved by the enzyme, whereas the contact points are digested. The resulting fragments can then be identified using mass spectrometry. The data generated can serve as the basis for designing small molecules and peptides that can disrupt the formation of protein complexes involved in disease processes. For example, using peptides based on the interleukin 1 receptor accessory protein (IL-1RAcP), Luchini, Liotta, Paige and colleagues disrupted the formation of IL-1/IL-R/IL-1RAcP complex and demonstrated that the inhibition of complex formation reduced the inflammatory response to IL-1B. Working on the discovery of novel antimicrobial agents, Bishop, van Hoek and colleagues have discovered a number of antimicrobial peptides from reptiles and other species. DRGN-1, is a synthetic peptide based on a histone H1-derived peptide that they had identified from Komodo Dragon plasma. DRGN-1 was shown to disrupt bacterial biofilms and promote wound healing in an animal model. The peptide, along with others, is being developed and tested in preclinical studies. Other research by van Hoek and colleagues focuses on in silico antimicrobial peptide discovery, screening of small molecules for antibacterial properties, as well as assessment of diffusible signal factors (DFS) as future therapeutics. The above examples provide insight into the cutting-edge studies undertaken by GMU scientists to develop novel methodologies and platform technologies important to drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Insights from 20 years of the Molecule of the Month

For 20 years, Molecule of the Month articles have highlighted the functional stories of 3D structures found in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). The PDB is the primary archive of atomic structures of biological molecules, currently providing open access to more than 150,000 structures studied by researchers around the world. The wealth of knowledge embodied in this resource is remarkable, with structures that allow exploration of nearly any biomolecular topic, including the basic science of genetic mechanisms, mechanisms of photosynthesis and bioenergetics, and central biomedical topics like cancer therapy and the fight against infectious disease. The central motivation behind the Molecule of the Month is to provide a user-friendly introduction to this rich body of data, charting a path for users to get started with finding and exploring the many available structures. The Molecule of the Month and related materials are updated regularly at the education portal PDB-101 (http://pdb101.rcsb.org/), offering an ongoing resource for molecular biology educators and students around the world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Coccidioides Research, Outstanding Questions in the Field, and Contributions by Women Scientists

Abstract Purpose of Review Coccidioidomycosis is an infectious disease that gained clinical significance in the early 20th century. Many of the foundational contributions to coccidioidomycosis research, including the discovery of the fungal disease agent, Coccidioides spp., were made by women. We review recent progress in Coccidioides research and big questions remaining in the field, while highlighting some of the contributions from women. Recent Findings New molecular-based techniques provide a promising method for detecting Coccidioides, which can help determine the dominate reservoir host and ideal environmental conditions for growth. Genetic and genomic analyses have allowed an understanding of population structure, species level diversity, and evolutionary histories. We present a current, comprehensive genome list, where women contributed many of these entries. Several efforts to develop a coccidioidomycosis vaccine are underway. Summary Women continue to pioneer research on Coccidioides, including the relationships between the fungi and the environment, genetics, and clinical observations. Significant questions remain in the field of Coccidioides, including the main host reservoir, the relationships between genotypic and phenotypic variation, and the underlying cause for chronic clinical coccidioidomycosis cases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dielectrophoresis assisted rapid, selective and single cell detection of antibiotic resistant bacteria with G-FETs

Time-consuming, expensive and low sensitivity diagnostic methods used for monitoring bacterial infections lead to unnecessary or delays in prescription of the right antibiotic treatment. Determining an optimal clinical treatment requires rapid detection and identification of pathogenic bacteria and their sensitivity to specific antimicrobials. However, diagnostic devices that meet all of these criteria have proven elusive thus far. Graphene field effect transistors (G-FET) are a promising solution, since they are highly sensitive to chemical/biological modification, can have fast detection times and can be placed on different substrates. Here, by integrating specific peptide probes over G-FETs, we present a proof-of-concept study for species and strain specific label-free detection of clinical strains of pathogenic bacteria with high specificity and sensitivity. We found that pyrene-conjugated peptides immobilized on G-FETs were capable of detecting pathogenic Staphylococcus aureus at the single-cell level and discriminate against other gram-positive and gram-negative bacterial pathogens. A similar device was able to discriminate between antibiotic resistant and sensitive strains of Acinetobacter baumannii , suggesting that these devices can also be used for detecting antibiotic resistive pathogens. Furthermore, a new means of enhancing attachment, electric-field assisted binding, reduced the detection limit to 104 cells/ml and the detection time to below 5 minutes. Here, the combination of single step attachment, inexpensive production, rapid, selective and sensitive detection suggest G-FETs plus pyrene-conjugated peptides are a new platform for solving major challenges faced in point of care diagnostics to fight infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structure of the Inmazeb cocktail and resistance to Ebola virus escape

Monoclonal antibodies can provide important pre- or post-exposure protection against infectious disease for those not yet vaccinated or in individuals that fail to mount a protective immune response after vaccination. Inmazeb (REGN-EB3), a three-antibody cocktail against Ebola virus, lessened disease and improved survival in a controlled trial. Here, we present the cryo-EM structure at 3.1 Å of the Ebola virus glycoprotein, determined without symmetry averaging, in a simultaneous complex with the antibodies in the Inmazeb cocktail. This structure allows the modeling of previously disordered portions of the glycoprotein glycan cap, maps the non-overlapping epitopes of Inmazeb, and illuminates the basis for complementary activities and residues critical for resistance to escape by these and other clinically relevant antibodies. We further provide direct evidence that Inmazeb protects against the rapid emergence of escape mutants, whereas monotherapies even against conserved epitopes do not, supporting the benefit of a cocktail versus a monotherapy approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗